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I am going away for most of today, so I will do my best to do my daily analyses now.
Macroeconomics: 15:00 Labor Market Conditions Index m/m
Not red macro so increased volatility is expected, plus it is before the RTH session starts.
On Friday 10-03-2017 the price attempted to push higher, however after the initial push the bears were waiting above the first half an hour high with their limit orders and even though the price managed to push few ticks higher it was eventually overwhelmed and started heading south. This was presented by formation of low percentile bar at 16:30 suggesting that one side has no interest to trade in the area.
The price then went to search for volume lower and find its support on the open VPOC form Thursday 09-03-2017 which was 50 % retracement level form Thursday RTH low and Friday RTH high. This has allowed both bulls and bears make money and get out at least on BE no matter what level they went in if they hold large enough SL. The price then ends up closing under 3 low percentile candles.
Today the ON session tested below the LVN on the CVP and the price was rejected and pushed higher, however the price has not find much interest to trade above the Fridays VPOC level.
Looking at the Daily graph the price is clearly in consolidation mode and it is trading around the top of the range. If the price should break higher the bulls must push higher and the bears know that, therefore there will be a lot of waiting limit orders above the Friday 10-03-2017 RTH high as well as above the Wednesday 01-03-2017 RTH high. The price looks like it has interest to push higher, however the bears can see it as a double top set up. As it is the second push to the high levels I would expect the price to find resistance on the top of the range and testing lower levels for possible support.
I would not be surprised if the price would want to test 24-02-2017 lows before attempting to push higher again. On the CNBC this could happen because of March 15th macroeconomics announcements or one can simply take this alternative as price action information which was brewing for some time. After all, the price has trended higher and there would want to be reassurance in range before attempting to push to new all-time highs.
Macroeconomics 13:30 PPI m/m – positive result
Core PPI m/m - positive result
The main macroeconomic day will be announced tomorrow.
Yesterday the price did have find resistance as expected on the Friday 10-03-2017 LVN however the Monday price action created HVN on the same lever regarding the CVP and eventually pushed higher and attempted to trade above the Friday’s RTH High. The price has created Low Volume percentile at the top of the price action.
During the ON session the price was ranging in very tight range which was ended by 3 Low volume percentile bars before the price went to trade lower, creating selling tail on the ON VP. This was probably because of the North Korea treat, However some kind of news reason is always the cause of price movement - so easy to explain looking back to the past what was the reason... go and figure.
I am not going to trade most probably today for few reasons. I have not noticed that since yesterday the markets starts again in different time and as I was not trading yesterday I have come to the graphs too late today.
I would expect the price mainly testing lower levels or ranging in Monday range levels again.
Even though my analyses clearly stated that there is great possibility for the price to go lower I have placed long pending order in case that the price would want to push higher. I then went out of screens and was not present when the order kicked in. That was a great mistake. I didn’t have enough time in the morning yet I still put the trade on and in completely opposite direction then it should have been.
Trade #2 Long, Loss -$50
I come back to the screens too late, the market hours have changed in relation to my time zone and I was not ready with my Daily analyses. I have even stated that I will not trade, yet I have broken all the promises and opened up a trade. I have experienced it many times before. I do make profitable trades, increase the portfolio size and as reward choose to act like a amateur the next few days so I can deal with the cognitive dissonance I hold about being able to become a professional trader. I didn’t record my trades; I didn’t even bother to look if the place where the price currently stopped is at the previously imbalanced area. I just looked at some parts of my trading strategy and ignored others, giving up the knowledge that as individual parts they never work well. The trade was screaming at me that my SL will be taken and I would be better off to tighten it up and go short instead, yet I didn’t act what so ever and the SL was taken in full.
Trade #3 Long, Loss -$50
The same situation happened with the second trade. I have noticed that the price does not line up with the Friday 10-03-2017 RTH low and there is a great chance that my SL will be taken, yet I didn’t act again. No recording of the trade was made either.
Even though the price action was bottoming out and if I would have re-enter again I would be most probably placed into a profitable trade I have switched off my trading platform and didn’t trade any more. Out of these situations where I am not fully prepared and present right from the beginning and I make such a silly mistake like with trade #1 I end up with “revenge trading” behavior, and even though looking back it may seem like a bad decision not to place that one more trade I did at least one thing correct during that day of trading. I have realized that I still have an emotional build up and issue regarding my wins and silly behavior and losses are likely and that my autopilot was switched on and I can end up with massive loss even though the market is supporting direction of my initial entry. It was hard not to place any more trades and watch the price nicely swinging upwards.
Overall I am happy with my trading. My bad behavior did kick in and I have done really silly mistakes. I have lowered my portfolio amount, yet I have managed to stop myself and avoid the rest of the behavior pattern and $150 was not such a bad price to become a better and conscious trader. I may do the same thing again and again in the future, however as long as I notice what is happening sooner and sooner I will be on the right path.
All of these are red macros. The price may present great volatility and perhaps great moves too. The previous today's red macros end up mostly in green.
The price is still holding on the top of the range created on the Daily graph. The price has moved lower in early trading hours on Tuesday 14-03-2017 finding support below the Friday 10-03-2017 RTH lows. The fact that the price has gone lower could mean that there is still willingness to push lower and see if the bulls will keep defending the levels. The price then closed on Friday’s VWAP.
During today’s ON session the price pushed higher from the Tuesday closed levels and fin support on Monday’s open VPOC which still was not challenged during yesterday’s RTH session. The price however has find resistance on the low volume percentile bars from Tuesday’s ON session.
As there is so much macroeconomics releases today the price can attempt to push higher and challenge the High from Wednesday 01-03-2017 and push above it. The price has tested lower levels yesterday and was rejected; the price has find support on the Mondays VPOC and if the price finds the support around such level during RTH hours there is not much which can stop the price to attempt to go higher.
Good possible entry areas for longs would be in my opinion around 5381.00 area just above LVN on the VP for the last week. 5385.50 – VPOC of the MCVP for this week and VPOC from yesterday. 5391.25 Monday’s open VPOC that would be interesting level to watch as it is the most recent level with two low volume percentiles formed on 120 graph.
The price may however test Monday RTH highs or the all time high's from Wednesday 01-03-2017 during today’s RTH session open and find resistance and decide to push lower to find the willingness of buyers to buy at the lower levels as some of the announcements today regarding the US debt may turn the market into the south direction.
Even though I have known that today the market behave in volatile way and even though I have established 3 important supporting levels, at the end I didn’t draw the lowest level to all of my charts and therefore I didn’t know where the level was. If I would have done that I would probably save myself some money and enter at much calmer way and with more certainty regarding my actions.
I was having an issue with my computer as I have placed the order much sooner however my computer froze and the order was filled much later on. This and the above issue put me under quite exhausting mental strain. I have been thinking about other things and was not clear in my head.
As there will be some important macroeconomic announcements later on I have decided to have only 2 contracts opened. That way I would be able to hold on to the position even if the price is volatile and have my BE point fairly low. Can the price swing so much that I will be taken out of my position anyway? Surely it could, I do not make the market and as such I cannot avoid possible trend reversal or volatile reaction as the traders speculation about the possible outcome of the macroeconomics.
I have an option to close one contract now and regain all my yesterday and today’s losses and still have one contract open which I would like to have it run overnight if all works out well for me after the macros. There will be most probably some kind of retracement – if the reason is possible get out strategies at 50% retracement for people which are hoping for move lower or because of the profit taking or speculation on news. Either way I have better chance to stay in the game and perhaps get in with more positions later on if my position is at reasonably safe place.
Holding on will give me valuable lesson which will help me to push my boundaries either way.
The price has nicely climb up, I was expecting to test the all time high before any retracement: however that though didn't happened. As the price start going lower I have placed one pending order close to the high of today, hoping that as the volatility increase it will at least test the area and I will have all my today's and yesterday losses covered, protected the portfolio and had another live trading experience.
The price has jumped considerably and looking back one would wish not to close the position so soon, however this is where I am. I am learning and I can only improve on my actions.
Even though the price went higher and it is still somehow holding on, it can change in a few seconds. Either way I have still one contract open and will wait till the end of the day what will happen.
Hi my friend, please let me do a couple of humble considerations about your yesterday's trades. I premise i am not here to mentor anybody, as i have just traded for 2 years. This is more about how i would have interpreted the chart.
I hope my analysis will help you and other readers, like many analysis helps me here to improve my experience.
This was not ideal trade what so ever as my bad behavior kicked in a bit again. I had a pending order ready at 5385.00. The market somehow didn’t want to go straight up and I have thought that perhaps it will re-test the Tuesday 14-03-2017 VOPC again. As the price just touched the VOPC level again and created 2 low percentiles I gave up and entered by market – thinking that the price will move swiftly higher. The price however moved lower and instead triggered my original entry level, by the time I clicked on the SL to move it higher the order was taken out and the market moved lower, hence the double loss.
Trade #2 Long, Loss -$50
As I was “certain” that the price will push higher I have stupidly placed another order straight away only watching the SL being triggered.
My big mistake was that I didn’t note the third supporting level on all my graphs and as such I may have not place the order.
Trade #3 Long, Profit $380
This entry was not perfect either. I am using Bandicam as video recording software and even though the computer is powerful and the Bandicam supposed to be great for gaming as it is taking very little computer power I have noticed that sometimes it does not like to cooperate with NT. I have entered the trade by market yet thanks to the issue with the computer the order was filled much later on. My intended entry level was 5381.50 however I was filled in at 5382.50.
As the market moved higher I was getting ready for possible retrace. I have to say that I was not so sure and I have thought that the price may even push lower. I have placed another contract at the same place as my BE position thinking that there may be no interest to go lower. I was filled in and the price moved sideways with very low percentile bars. I have thought that this is a good sign, however then the price has moved even lower. I was willing at that moment to risk the initial SL but with 2 contracts that would mean loss of $100. Not ideal, however I have stayed in the trade. The price went against me by $60 and then started moving higher. I have thought that the price may come back and I will enter the third order, however I was not filled in as my order was a tick away.
Closing one contract.
Knowing what I have known now I would hold on to that position, however that is not the game. As the price declined from its highs I started thinking that perhaps I should have close the one contract and cover all my yesterday and today losses. I have then placed the pending order at mini HVN right at the top of the VP, hoping that the volatility would bring the price at least for re-test of the highs. I was taken out so quick that I didn’t have a chance to move the order any higher. Many good lessons taken out of that.
Another contract is still running with open profit of $695.
I have realized that I still have an emotional build up and issue regarding my wins and silly behavior and losses are likely and that my autopilot 
was switched on and I can end up with massive loss 
even though the market is supporting direction of my initial entry. It was hard not to place any more trades 
and watch the price nicely swinging upwards. 
and $150 was not such a bad price to become a better and conscious trader. I may do the same thing again and again in the future, however as long as I notice what is happening sooner and sooner I will be on the right path.