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My first encounter with charts and trading come from attending weekend seminar in London UK. After spending $1000 for the ticket I have got as much information as decent trading book would give me. What is OHLC of the price, that the slope of exponential moving average shows the trend of the price and how to open spread betting account and place a bet. It all looked so simple I could not believe that I didn’t hear of it earlier. I max out my credit card as I was in great debt anyway and the trading would soon solve all my financial problems “RIGHT?” that was more than 7 years ago. Since then I have paid all my debt (not because of my trading), lost god knows how much money in trading and moved from spread betting to stock trading and ETF till I end up with E-mini Nasdaq which suits me the best.
I have thought that trading is a great environment for such a free soul like me. No rules, one can place the trade whenever one wants and close it whenever one feels is the right moment. Pure freedom, isn’t it? Finally nobody is telling me what to do and when and how to do things.
Well after quite some time I have realized that this is my biggest killer. Discretionary trading is awesome; however there is need for rules and strong discipline. All this freedom is hard earned. I have great issue with keeping rules and being accountable to anyone. The time come though and I have realized that I must setup my rules which would help me to get profitable in my trading in more consistent bases as well as being accountable to someone who knows about trading so I cannot use my BS and excuses in order to explain why did I lost $750 when my risk management is stating that I can lose maximum of $150 in any given day. I understand that people are not on this forum to keep me accountable; however the feeling of being ashamed if someone would occasionally visit this tread would (I hope) help me to hold the horses and get better with my trading.
Awesome! Posting here is your first step to success! You will find that if you post here often, you will progress extremely quick! Faster than you thought you would by typing a few words on an internet forum!
I will be starting fresh so the rules may change a bit as the time goes by. If you would have any suggestions regarding my rules and this journal, please let me know - I would really appreciate it.
I will use whatever was working for me in past and put it all together. I am not great at picking the exact moment where the price will turn so for the beginning I will be reacting to the trend change. My aim is not to make $50 trades rather find decent spot for trend reversal and drive the market for as long as I could. For the beginning I will close all of my trades no latter then the end of the day; however the aim is to build up the portfolio and have some contracts running overnight.
• I will be doing daily market analyses and pre – trading checklist.
• I will be using Supply/Demand levels which I will be determining out of Volume profile.
• I will use small consolidation on 1 min graph and then expansion candle as an indication of possible trend reversal.
• I will be using VWAP as my profit taking point. If the price would be moving in the direction of the VWAP I will use (at least for the beginning) $300 move from my initial entry as a profit target area.
• I will do my best to add to the profitable position and scale in with further 2 to 3 contracts if possible.
• I will be entering with one contract at the time.
• I will be using $50 as initial Stop Loss and with any added contract move the initial SL to Break Even + one tick.
• Stop my trading for the day after $150 loss.
On Wednesday the price continued in decline till it stopped just above previously marked S/D imbalance area which developed during Friday 05.08.2016 and Wednesday 10.08.2016 lows. The price has find strong support level and moved upwards with a strong move under heavy cumulative volume. It has find resistance at previously marked #11 S/D imbalance level and strongly declined. It moved strongly all the way down to #08 S/D imbalance level (this was most probably only SL fishing as anyone who would add more then once during the move would have their BEP and SL around those levels) and it moved higher to #12 S/D imbalance level which proved to be the high of the RTH.
The night session did retest the #12 Level and gradually dropped lower to test #11 for support. After no interest to trade below this level the price then moved higher and finds support just above #13 S/D imbalance level. Very small cumulative volume suggested possible move of the price and the price is on decline since then – currently just above #10 S/D level.
The market is in long term uptrend with creating new highs. It has hit solid support level so one can except more bullish move. #10 S/D imbalance level acted as solid support in previous price movement and it is supported by yesterday’s VWAP level. There is very small cumulative volume around this area which would suggest possible market move.
In my trading career I have found that correct knowledge and the ability to change behavior are the most important parts of successful trading. - Phantom of the Pits
To a high degree, boredom and luck of discipline are the main impediments to successful long-term trading. It is only after an operator has learned to sit patiently with a profitable, with-the-trend position that he will have developed the potential to score significant profits. Unfortunately, and at very high cost, the average speculator is most likely to display his patience and "sitting power" when he is holding an against-the-trend "losing" position - just the time when good strategy would mandate that he close the losing position to limit his losses. - Stanley Kroll
The big money is not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements - that is, not in reading the tape, but in sizing up the entire market and its trend. – Jesse Livermore
The way to build long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs. You can be far more aggressive when you’re making good profits. - Stanley Druckenmiller
Trade 1
Finding the right spot (during the daily analyses) to enter the market was correct. It was slightly above the #10 S/D imbalance level; however the price did reacted to previous turning point from yesterday 21:10 to 21:30.
The entry was in a good place; however the trade could have been entered 2 min later on.
The main mistake was to add the second position by market. I didn't wait for better price as I could have enter at the same spot as my initial entry. If I would have done that I could still halve my initial SL so I am still risking the initial $50 now for two contracts and the price would not touch it. Because of this I have closed the trade with small loss and broke my rule of bringing the SL to BEP after adding to the second position. Even if I would leave the trade running I would be exposed myself to heat of more than $50.
Trade 2
I have been waiting for possible pull back and it come. 18:36 I have entered by pending long order; however the market broke downwards. Therefore I have closed the position with $25 loss.
The scarcity got hold of me as the price started consolidating above #10 S/D imbalance level and my initial thought was that the second pull back may be higher then the night session low. Still pleased with the quick escape.
Trade 3
The entry was bit late as I was waiting with another pending order on #10 S/D imbalance level. The market however didn't come back so second order above the price level was triggered. Not happy so much but the move was swift so the SL was safe.
Second entry is pretty much the same story. I have been waiting for market retest of the low of the swing however it didn't happened and as I didn't wanted to jump in by market the order placed at #11 S/D imbalance level was triggered instead.
I have waiting for the market to break #13 S/D imbalance level however eventually I was taken out on the trailed SL. Could I pull more money out of the trade? Yes I could however my main aim is to find right place to enter and drive the market as fare as possible. Clearly this wasn't the case.
On Thursday the price initially didn’t even reach #10 S/D imbalance level and it moved higher to #13 level which was tested during the night session. This level was again rejected and the price went down. Re-tested the #10 S/D imbalance level and quickly moved higher. The price however could not even reach the previous highs and around 4811.00 level started the bear pressure again. The price has closed close to #12 level.
The Night session re-tested the 4811.00 level with no interest to trade higher what so ever. The price then went to look for volume lower. It funded temporary support on Tuesday’s VWAP and bounced higher and eventually find resistance on #12 imbalance level.
During the European opening session the price could not get any higher so it choose the path of the least resistance and went down to look for more volume. The price has fond support on the lows from Friday 12-08-2016 bounce off it and could not go any higher due to Wednesday’s VWAP and went to find some more volume lower.
On Thursday 18-08-2016 the majority of trading was around Wednesday’s highs; however the price could not push higher and there was clearly no interest to be pushing any higher at this stage. This would suggest that the value is much lower and the European session price action prove that. #10 S/D imbalances level is POC of the recent price move (04-08-2016 till now) and if the higher levels didn’t attract more trading the most likely outcome will be either consolidation around the recent levels or testing the lower levels for more interest. On Wednesday 17-08-2016 the lower levels were sharply rejected therefore it could be tight consolidation and building up position for some heavy players before the new weeks start and possible test to new highs.
