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E-mini Nasdaq Volume Profile Trading Journal


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E-mini Nasdaq Volume Profile Trading Journal

  #81 (permalink)
 milosv 
London UK
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja Trader 7
Broker: AMP, CQG
Trading: NQ
Posts: 100 since Jul 2014
Thanks Given: 36
Thanks Received: 38

Macroeconomics: 15:30 Crude Oil Inventories

Yesterdays the market created major bearish correction, closed the gap from Wednesday 01-03-2017 and open VOPC from Tuesday 28-02-2017.
The price has stopped below the major HVN on the CVP and created rounded bottom with extremely low percentiles suggesting that the market would push somewhere out of the current price levels. If the price is creating “Cup & handlebullish pattern then I would expect the price to test the ON VOPC and either consolidate or push higher as the current support may hold strong.

If the market wants to continue lower I would expect re-test of open VPOC from yesterday and further drop. The CVP below the recent low is very thin and the price may slide much lower.

I am not going to trade today as still dealing with some of the previous issues.

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  #82 (permalink)
 milosv 
London UK
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja Trader 7
Broker: AMP, CQG
Trading: NQ
Posts: 100 since Jul 2014
Thanks Given: 36
Thanks Received: 38

Macroeconomics: 13:30 Unemployment Claims negative number by 18K
13:45 Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

Yesterday the price pushed to the open VPOC from Tuesday 21-03-2017 find initial resistance and went lower to test the ON LVN where it has find support and pushed higher, finishing the cup&handle pattern on 30 min graph. The price then for the rest of the day consolidate with the support of Tuesday VPOC.

During today’s ON session the price has continued the consolidation, respecting the range from Wednesday 22-03-2017 HVN. Wednesday closing price created low percentile bars suggesting that the price do not want to stay in this range; however thanks to the time didn’t have the chance to explore different area. The ON range has quite few low percentile bars and it is trading in tight range suggesting that the price will in deed move out and we can expect another trending day (it depends on the result of the Fed Chair Yellen Speech).

Daily graph: the daily graph is showing a pullback in recent bearish move. Even though the price didn’t attempted to go much lower for now there is still enough room to test 5297.50 for possible support and the willingness of bulls to respect the current range. The price has pushed above the CVP HVN at 5351.25 and having resistance on CVP LVN at 5379.25. If the price decides to go higher I would expect the move to be swift above the CVP LVN and using the LVN as possible support level in further move up.

120 min graph: The recent price move find support on Thursday 16-02-2017 RTH high with buildup of low percentile bars. It has created rounded bottom and the Cup & Handle pattern is nicely visible now as well on this TF. Thanks to fractal nature of markets the pattern moved from 30 min graph to one TF higher and now we can see it on 120 min bar finishing the handle part and once finished I would expect the price to move higher and test at least the last week MCVP VPOC at 5414.25. The price has to find some solid support which could be with the help of Y price action around 5352.50 which is CVP HVN as well (the price may stop sooner and find support at 5359.50). There is very thin volume profile between Thursday 23-03-2017 ON high and Wednesday 01-03-2017 RTH High. There is however HVN from last week MCVP and this may either stop the price from rapid move up or if ignored it will help to push the price higher. Once the price has find support above Thursday 23-03-2017 ON high I would expect bit more ranging movement rather than rapid move up (I may be pleasantly surprised if I am wrong).

30 min graph: The price is tightly consolidating around Wednesday 22-03-2017 VPOC and so far it is respecting the levels even during the actual speech. I would still expect the price to possibly test Tuesday 21-03-2017 VPOC level for support before the price may move higher.

If the price will not find solid support I would take this situation as small retracement in the down move and I would expect the price to move one TF higher and test the levels mentioned above at Daily graph analyses. If the prices advertise lower and the buyers will not defeat the range, the CVP is very thin and there could be much bigger slip in price and test of lower levels.


I am still dealing with some of the PC issues and as such will not trade live today if at all.

I didn't mentioned the London UK attack, however it didn't have any major effect on the price move. I wish all the injured and affected people by the attack to get well soon and condolences to the families who lost their love ones.

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  #83 (permalink)
 milosv 
London UK
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja Trader 7
Broker: AMP, CQG
Trading: NQ
Posts: 100 since Jul 2014
Thanks Given: 36
Thanks Received: 38


There is resistance around LVN on this week CVP around 5374.50 level and support around LVN on the weekly CVP 5347.75. My thoughts are still bullish as long as the price break above and bearish if the price breaks below the levels.

Overall I am still bullish.

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  #84 (permalink)
 milosv 
London UK
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja Trader 7
Broker: AMP, CQG
Trading: NQ
Posts: 100 since Jul 2014
Thanks Given: 36
Thanks Received: 38

During The ON session the price has retested low of low percentile candle from Tuesday 21-03-2017 and has find strong support. Prior this test the price has created 3 low percentile candles on 120 min graph. As the price has come to test above the two low percentile candles it could not go any higher and it has created another low percentile candle suggesting that there still may be unwillingness to trade any higher at this moment. The price does not want to trade much above the ON VPOC levels and it is advertising lower prices in search of buyers.

My initial thought of cup and handle pattern didn’t really workout to the full potential and it only covered one length from the handle and the bottom of the cup and the handle and the high of the Friday 24-03-2017 RTH session, suggesting that there is still strong resistance level on the weekly and CVP LVN.

The price has created double bottom on 120 min graph and if it holds it may suggest that the open VPOC from Friday 24-03-2017 may be closed again during this week trading.

If the currant double bottom pattern will not hold its support there is open VPOC from Friday 17-02-2017 which may be tested and the price may test the ON low from the same day or consolidation cluster from the previous day around 5277.75 areas. The CVP below the levels is very thin and if the price will not stop it may continue its search for buyer’s lower closing all the open VPOC’s Thursday 02-02-2017.

For today’s trading there is area of low percentile candles since the ON low and as such it is suggesting that the price do not want to trade around this are any much longer. The price may retest the 5330.75 – 5321.25 area and if it finds solid support it may trade higher in search of more volume or it may break above the ON VPOC and VWAP and find solid support and trade higher right from the beginning of the RTH session.

If the price does not find support it will test lower levels as mentioned above.

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  #85 (permalink)
 milosv 
London UK
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja Trader 7
Broker: AMP, CQG
Trading: NQ
Posts: 100 since Jul 2014
Thanks Given: 36
Thanks Received: 38

I have forgot to mention that there is FOMC Member Evans Speech at 19:15 and this could bring a bit of volatility to the market.

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  #86 (permalink)
 milosv 
London UK
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja Trader 7
Broker: AMP, CQG
Trading: NQ
Posts: 100 since Jul 2014
Thanks Given: 36
Thanks Received: 38

Trade #1Long, Loss -$55.00

I have been concentrating on my laptop (I have new installation of Windows done and I was adding all the software's) instead on the screens and as such I have missed the first retest of 5320.75 which I have thought would be a good place to enter the trade (Here is the first self sabotaging signal). Then I have been waiting and I started catching the falling knife. Instead of waiting for decent retracement, my fear of missing out overwhelmed me again and I started jumping into the trades by market orders.


Trade #2 Long, Loss -$50.00

This was again pure emotional trade. I was in my pattern and even though I was aware of my actions I still didn’t change a zip.


Trade #3 Long, Loss -$50.00

Even though I have paused in my behavior and waited a bit and started calming myself down a bit I still react emotionally and jumped in by market order in a moment when the price moved good 4 ticks higher by the time my order was executed. The trade would either way end up as loss, however the point is that I was reacting to the market and not anticipating the move and as such my behavior was not correct.


Trade #4 Loss, -$115.00

This was again continuation of my bad behavior with added bonus of adding into the loosing position. The first order was market and not filled in great spot either and the second one even though it was pending order was placed when my first order was in negative numbers so something I should avoid at all costs. I simply believed too much in possible move and I was risking more than I have need to. The bigger loss is my punishment. If I would have been calm I would be entering by pending orders and I would be able to get much better filling and even though I would still loose the trade I would save money on the second contract and I would keep to my rules. Not to mention the fact that my Daily analyses entry levels were somewhere else.


Trade #5 Long, Profit $1185.00

I have entered by market again; however this time I had conformation of test beyond known area and as I have thinking of possible Open Test Drive Day before the market opened this was actually trade which made sense regarding all my Daily analyses and pre market work.

Even though this was profitable trade and I am pleased about entering with one contract and then adding on sensible levels another 4 contracts the fear overtook me and I left a great amount of money on the table. The market has moved further $500 on contract higher then I have closed my position on trailing SL. Even though I was aware of my actions and I was aware of such a silly place for TSL I still did that as I was scared of possibly losing the position. My initial PT was much higher and my initial plan was to trail the SL and increase the PT levels if the trade would go up (which did). My action however was not reflecting reality at the time; I was fixing my mind on my P&L rather than on the probability chances and my pre market Daily Analyses hard work.

Therefore, even though this allowed me to increase the amount on my trading portfolio, it does not make me satisfy with my acting as a trader. I have left $2.5K on the table and possibly more if I would add sensibly into the position and that is at time of writing this. Who knows if the market would re-test the open VPOC from Friday?


Overall I am pleased that I have increased the portfolio, however I am aware of so many things which I need to address and work on as well. Something which was unheard off before for me is possible now and I should move forward and set new bench mark for my trading results.

Huge thank you to my mentor

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  #87 (permalink)
DjRonin
La Serena - Chile
 
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Great trade man... keep it going.

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  #88 (permalink)
 milosv 
London UK
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja Trader 7
Broker: AMP, CQG
Trading: NQ
Posts: 100 since Jul 2014
Thanks Given: 36
Thanks Received: 38

Macroeconomics: 16:00 CB Consumer Confidence
19:00 FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks

The price is still holding strong resistance; above Friday 24-03-2017 open VPOC. There is in addition open VPOC from yesterday around the same levels and LVN on the MCVP from the last week as well as LVN on CVP, therefore if the price breaks above these levels it may start trading/ranging around 5414.50 levels again.

Yesterday’s move was powerful; however it has stopped below the Friday’s open VPOC and started consolidating, suggesting the bulls need more time and possibly cheaper price to push the price above the Friday’s RTH high.

Even though it does not look like it the price is ranging between the main HVNs on the CVP 5342.00 – 5380.00 where the price find the most value.

Yesterday the price has created clearly visible LVN on the VP with low percentile candle on 30 min graph suggesting that the price may not want to trade below these levels which is supported by VWAPS from the last week as well as LVN from last week MCVP. The price may however start consolidating around these levels or even break below and retest the 5342.00 levels and continue the consolidation on bigger TF.

I may not be trading live today.

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  #89 (permalink)
 milosv 
London UK
 
Experience: None
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Broker: AMP, CQG
Trading: NQ
Posts: 100 since Jul 2014
Thanks Given: 36
Thanks Received: 38

The price has climbed to possibly strong Supply zone which was marked as gap down on the Daily graph. The price is moving into thin volume on the Composite Volume Profile and as such the price can be either quickly rejected or it will start building a range and establishing possible base for further move up or move lower in search for more volume.

Volume 10000 Graph

The Supply zone was established during ON move on Monday 19-03-2018 and as such represents thin volume. There are two HVN and they can act as possible Supply areas which can push the price lower. The range which can significantly hold the price was build up during RTH on Friday 16-03-2018 starting at 7035.00 till 7058.00 with Naked VPOC at 7043.25.

The price is holding on LVN which was created during today's ON session which separates the current range which has build during Thursday and Friday last week (10-05-2018/ 11-05-2018).

As the price is going to open very close to Friday's High of the RTH session I would expect the LVN holding the price and possibly building up new range above the existing one or attempt to push higher. If the LVN would not hold then last week's range will either hold up the price for longer or act as possible base for down move.

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  #90 (permalink)
 milosv 
London UK
 
Experience: None
Platform: Ninja Trader 7
Broker: AMP, CQG
Trading: NQ
Posts: 100 since Jul 2014
Thanks Given: 36
Thanks Received: 38


Macroeconomics: 16:30 CZ Crude Oil Inventories

Company earnings: 3 - Total weight 3.23% - Not enough to move the market significantly.

Even though I didn't post Daily Analyses for yesterday the market moved lower below previously marked up range from Thursday-Friday 10/11-05-2018 under heavy ON selling. The market was consolidating for the rest of yesterday creating nicely balanced Volume Profile.

Today's ON session. The price created a mini range and it is still consolidating. I would expect the price to test higher on the open and either break out of the yesteray's range (unlikely in my opinion) or get rejected and move lower to either test yesterday's Lows or breaking lower and start testing range created during Monday 07-05-2018 until morning RTH session of Wednesday 09-05-2018.

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Last Updated on May 16, 2018


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