Determine the market condition (Price - Time analyses)
Is the price currently in balance or price discovery mode?
The price has pushed out of range, however it still may not be in discovery mode.
Review the Composite Volume Profile - get the big picture of what is going on (Price - Volume analyses).
The price has pushed out of the range on Monday. It has closed just above former high which was created on 23-09-2016. As the price is pushing into new highs there is less volume on the CVP at this area at this moment. The range which the price come from has 3 HVN at 4861.00, 4872.50 and 4880.00 levels.
What has the price done and what is it attempting to do?
The price is in long term uptrend. After a strong sell off on 10-09-2016 it has responded with strong move up. The market has reached the highest point of 4892.25 on 23-09-2016. Since then the market has been mainly consolidating. For the last 6 trading days the POC was at higher 2/3 of the range at 4872.75 level suggesting possible break out of range higher. The break happened on Monday 10-10-2016 even though the US had bank holiday. One can speculate if the move was strong enough to break out of the existing range and as it occurred during US bank holiday if it really count as reflection of NASDAQ traded companies.
Analyses of 120 min chart Determine the market condition (Price - Time analyses)
Even though at the first glance the market created new high I am not convinced. The move occurred during US bank holiday and was not substantially strong to clearly determine the participants will to move out of the existing range.
Analyses of 10 min chart Determine the market condition for the ON session.
During the ON session the market could not push above Mondays RTH highs. It has find support around Monday's Open and it has consolidated for a while. During the European Opening session the consolidation continued under low volume. The price attempted to push lower with interest from buyers. The price has pushed higher. It has retraced lower and find support around Close level from 23-09-2016
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None of the macros are red; I would not therefore expect some crazy volatility during the time periods.
The price has created new all-time high on Wednesday 01-03-2017 at 5400.00 the price action left opened VPOC and it is likely that it will be sooner or later attempted to close. Prior to this move the price has gap-up and till today the gap was not still fully closed.
The price was then rejected and on the following day declined and closed just above the previous all –time high. On Friday 03-03-2017 the market tested just below the ON session low and find enough support to rise for the rest of the day with a bit of volatility on response to FOMC Member Powell speech. The price has found its resistance on LVN form both previous days.
On the open of today’s ON session the price attempted to trade higher than Friday’s high, however it was strongly rejected suggesting that the can be possibly still a strong resistance as if the market returns it will be first return to such a place with combination of LVN on the CVP.
The market is possibly building a descending triangle and today’s ON reaction and Low Volume Bars are suggesting that there is no interest to trade in the area at least for time of being, reinforcing the possibility of descending triangle. The market was after all in strong up move and correction may be expected.
The price would have to go through 3 HVN on the CVP and subsequently close the gap from Wednesday 01-03-2017 and close the open VPOC from Tuesday 28-02-2017.
The market may however hold on and find solid support around ON low and break above the trend line of the descending triangle higher to yet again retest the 5374.50 as possible resistance level. This thesis may be supported if the price action was a channel and the green dotted line is its top line. Then the price find support on the retest of the trend line and one may expect further rise of the price action.
Either way the 5349.00 – 5344.00 is important are to watch for potential long or short entries.
Trade #1 Long, Loss -$30
I was hoping for bounce of the ON session Low, therefore I have positioned myself after the initial bounce into the market. There was a retest and I have moved my SL and eventually taken out of the trade.
Trade #2 Long, BE $10
When the market didn’t go any lower I thought that I perhaps made a mistake and the market will possibly break higher especially after the bar color conformation. I have re-entered the trade, however the market didn’t want to move any higher and that is why I have tighten my SL to BE+2 which was a tick lower than the previous retest and I have thought that if the market shoots up it will be plenty and I do not need to unnecessarily risk if it does not go higher.
Trade # 3 Long, Loss -$50
The market then moved lower and started consolidating. I was impassioned and eventually jumped in. This trade was a good attempt; however I have screw up on entry as I had the entry on the previous Low and I have canceled it and instead after the retest jumped in without waiting for any better price. My trading account is still quite small and the urge of missing out was yet again stronger than waiting cold headed for a better price especially as the price usually comes back. I was taken on the last tick on the Low of the day.
Trade #4 Long, Loss -#60
The market moved and as I was already quite upset in my mind I was not thinking that straight. I did wait for the pullback and as I had expected there was a new swing high created, the price then retraced back and tested just below the BE point and as the price bounced higher I had another contract waiting, hoping that this time the price will finally take off and go higher. I have taken the gamble and unfortunately it didn’t work. I was too tight and as I didn’t want to risk more than my initial SL I have closed the position with a loss. The price went slightly lower and continued consolidating. At this point I was quite upset about my behavior as I had 2 nice shoots completely wasted because of being scared and impassioned.
Trade #5 Long, Loss -$15
This was trade out of frustration. Somehow I have known that the market is slow but it is building the urge to break higher, with two previous trades completely screwed up I thought I will push my luck again. However these behaviors send me many times before into a red numbers. I have realized that I am -$130 for today and another $50 would set me nearly $200 in minus including all the commissions, so I have closed the trade with a small loss. It was hard decision, however I have realized that yet again I have jumped into the trade and no matter how profitable the trade may become I am doing my best to avoid such behavior. For the rest of the day I have watched how the market keeps climbing.
Over all I am pleased with the outcome. Yes I have lost money on the trades which could make nice money and I was emotional, however I have kept pretty much to mu rules and was quite accurate in my judgement of the trade situation. There is a lot more to learn and work on, mainly on the psychology issue which is greatly affected by small account size and being scared to accumulate any more losses.
Unfortunately I come to the graphs 15 min into the RTH session and I didn’t do any pre-market analyses. However after a quick look I have realized that the market can break above the VWAP. I have waited for the retrace back to the ON swing low and entered by limit order. There was not so much heat and as the price has moved above VWAP I have placed another pending order just above the possible resistance – previous swing high – I have thought that perhaps the break will be strong as there was a small cumulative volume. The price however moved lower and I have placed another pending order on the VWAP and one two ticks below the low of the actual swing. The 4 contract was a gamble however I have thought that this is only flag formation and sooner or later it will take off. This was not really kosher as I would be risking more than my initial SL. The price eventually took off more aggressively than I have initially though. Tested the LVN on the CVP which was my original Profit taking point, however with such a rapid move I have thought I will give it a bit of space and chance to perhaps break higher. That eventually didn’t happen and I was taken on the TSL. There was a great chance that the price would retest the LVN on the CVP again and I have left $150 on the table, however I believe it was not worth the risk as the VP was way too thin and I was worried of possible slide (which eventually happened in much slower manner than I have thought).
I could have switched the position and go short, however I was happy with the profit and that seems too risky for me as the retrace may not be as massive as it was.
Trade # 2 Long, Loss -$50
I have thought that there would be retracement and I could take the long again. The price has find some kind of support and I was waiting for the retest of the swing low, having one contract above the market (at least I have thought) I didn’t placed the contract in the proper spot as I was waiting for possible break out higher and I was taken into the trade. Living on the hope I have left the trade to take the whole initial SL.
Trade # 3 Long, BE +3
The market tested my initial pending order level so I have re-entered the market. The issue was that the market simply didn’t have the umpf to push higher and more and more I had the feeling that this is going to be a bull’s trap and the price will test much lower. On this feeling I had tighten my SL and was taken out. Not a great stop place, however I gave it a go and it didn’t work out over all a good trade.
I have made few risks which this time worked out well. I had much bigger heat than I would like to have in the first trade, however my prediction of flag formation was correct and the trade worked out well. I didn’t expect such a strong move up, I have thought that it will be more likely whole day slow move, possibly to the ON high and if strong then possibly to the LVN on the CVP. I didn’t want to add any more positions later on and have my BE position above the VWAP that is why I have entered with a few contracts on such a tight spot.
I didn’t short the move and that was in my opinion a good decision (even though I believe there were many who were waiting for such an opportunity).
I have attempted to spend some more money on possible re-bounce of the price. This was good and even though I was taken on the higher price by my own mistake as the pending order should have been 2 ticks higher I was still happy with the outcome. Usually I would be emotionally exhausted and too excited to jump in for more that I would made much bigger mistakes. I was holding my horses and entered on the spot I believed to be good and managed to call out the trap before I have lost my initial SL which is positive.
I have decided not to re-enter the market on the bottoming out as I could not see big enough profit margin for another trade.
I am not happy about missing the market analyses.
Last edited by milosv; March 7th, 2017 at 02:25 PM.
Reason: Adding screenshots
The price yesterday tested CVP LVN at 5374.25 and was strongly rejected; however it has tested the 5341.50 and was strongly rejected too. The price perhaps didn’t have enough time yesterday to test lower levels as the marked was near the closing bell. Today the lower levels were tested during the early ON session and nearly closed the gap from Wednesday 01-03-2017. There is a lot of low cumulative volume throughout the ON session which may be suggesting that the price would like to move further away from the current location. So far the price is created opposite Doji pattern on the daily graph to the yesterday one. The price may very well attempt to close the gap during the RTH and then end up around the area of 5345.50 and wait for tomorrow to make the decision which way the price will go.
Or the CVP HVN does not want to be traded any more as it is proving by the Low Volume Bars and the price may retest any of the ON swings lows (5344.75 seems like a good one to be tested ) and attempt to break higher or break higher straight on the open. The price is not moving exactly in defined channel; however there is clearly a lot of interest for the market to attempt higher levels.
These are not the clearest days for me to judge what most probably may happen, however these are days which are predicting possible move in the price. I am still bullish in my assumption of break out direction and will attempt to find possibly good entry point for a long set up. I may be completely wrong and the price will find resistance on the CVP HVN and will go South in search for more volume.
The market did bottom out under very low cumulative volume and unfortunately I was too scared to trust this signal to enter. I was waiting for the break out above the ON high and then was too scared of possible retracement. This is clearly suggesting that I have long way in front of me to trust the things which do work. Never the less The market start shooting up and being worried that I would miss out I have jumped in at the worst possible point, even though I have waited for slightly better price of the recent swing high (on such a small timeframe that it seems absolutely ridiculous now). I have lost the first trade due to retracement of the price which I was worried that would come and as soon as that happened and I lost my initial SL I have jumped into the second trade.
Trade #2 Long Profit $460
As the price has moved from the Spike of HVN into the LVN area I have reentered the trade, hoping for fast move upwards again. I have encountered very little heat and I have placed 2 pending orders above the high and waited for the break out higher. The price has then reach Monday RTH high and the candles become so small on the lower timeframe that I have thought that there may be another correction before the market test at least the same high, with such a rapid move up I was hoping for at least retest of Tuesday’s RTH high. The price has retraced a bit and I placed another 2 pending orders. The price then moved slightly lower but it was still okay. Once the price has created new high there was quite sharp move lower on the small timeframe and I didn’t wanted to risk any large correction, knowing that I have entered the trend so late and as the price didn’t have any sign of bounce off I let the TSL to be triggered happy with the profit and knowing that I may re-enter after the correction.
I have tested to place 2 contracts instead of usual one for two reasons. I was hoping for the prompt move to yesterday’s RTH high and I wanted to experience the effect on my psychology.
Overall giving the circumstances I am quite pleased with the end result. It wasn’t the best trade ever however I have managed to get some kind of profit and managed to push over my old way of thinking and holding the position through the retrace and risking hell a lot for no reason what so ever and instead attempted re-entry once the retrace finished.
Trade # 3 Long, Loss -$90
After the correction and re-bounce -giving the circumstances of my way of thinking at that particular moment I have thought that the price will not consolidate for long and will move sharply from some reasonable Support level. I have re-entered the market after the first bounce off and once the price could not go any lower place another 2 pending orders at the low, hoping for initial break upwards. This eventually happened and I was filled in, however the price didn’t break much higher and instead went lower after all the SL and I was taken out.
Even though this end up with loss and bigger loss than my initial SL I am happy for attempting to go in with more than one contract. I have adding another contract and in this case 2 contracts below the BE point which is bad behavior, however I did that as I have thought that the price could not go any lower. Still a big no, no. I had some money made out of the previous trade and hoped for a quick re-bounce and move higher. I am happy though that I have closed the trade event though with bigger SL than my initial $50. The price went lower few more ticks and then start climbing, however I could not have known that at the time and I am happy that I have cut my losses short especially when overloaded with 2 more contracts entered below the BE point.
Trade # 4 Long, Profit $420
Still hoping for the retest of yesterday’s RTH High I have re-entered on the break above the recent consolidation just to make sure I will not be trapped again. Knowing that I had still some profit left I have attempted to push my psychology further and went in with 2 contracts and entered two more at the close of the trade #2 level, to pick up from the same spot (even though with one contract short to the trade #2). The price moved nicely higher, however didn’t have any power to go any higher and after retest of what I have thought was the last swing low I have tighten the SL rapidly knowing that if the price meant to go higher it should at least reach the current high. I was been taken out on the continuation of the retracement.
Not the best outcome I was hoping for, however I have tested my reactions by trading 2 contracts at the time and still end up with profit and build up my portfolio size.
Perhaps not the nicest and noble way of trading. I was nervous a lot at the times and practice my deliberate breathing and kept myself calm which worked well and I have managed to add some more money to my account. I have decided to stop trading for the rest of the day, even though there were some more opportunities to enter the market. I didn’t want to push my luck + I felt quite drained psychically.
Macroeconomics: 16:30 Natural Gas Storage, 19:01 30-y Bond Auction
None of the macros are red, so no higher volatility is expected.
Today is the roll over date for the new contract month and because of that I have actually lost most of the ON session.
The price has re-test the LVN on the CVP and was again strongly rejected, not being able to go above even on the second attempt. The price has find possible support on the top of the trend line which may suggest that there was a flag formation on the daily graph after all and we may expect further attempt to go through the LVN on the CVP and perhaps create new all-time market high.
The price may come back and retest the Tuesday VPOC and find some kind of solid support or dip slightly lower and retest the last night closing swing low. I would consider this area as a solid base for potential price rise as it is corresponding with yesterday’s ON high.
The 5378.50 LVN on the CVP is still valid resistance level and as such I will take this level as possible PT for the long entries. The price may very well break through it as there is a will to go higher proved by yesterday RTH high, however this may not happen today.
Yesterday traded formation seems to me like generating large position for someone who would want to push the price higher. It looks like a flag formation and the price may break higher later on.
Last edited by milosv; March 9th, 2017 at 10:18 AM.
I have entered at my awaited entry, however I have noticed that as I have changed to the new contract month, there was no data what so ever, however I still went with the flow and unfortunately lost the initial SL without even being able to move it a bit. The move of the price was so strong that I have ended up with 2 tick slippage on the exit losing more than my initial SL…
Trade #2 Long, Loss -$50
The price has moved lower and as there was not really clear data I have entered at the yesterday’s last swing low as I thought that this may be a good level for entry. The price has moved slightly more against me and took again the initial SL.
Trade #3 Long, Profit $180
The price bounced off the CVP HVN and I have re-entered the trade again, however this time I was really not happy with the data I am getting on all my graphs and the fact that the only indication I can clearly see is the price movement which being the beginning of the day was quite hectic - up and down by a point. That was the reason I didn’t even add to the trade, even though the initial entry was at a good spot. I have made a decision to take the position out, recover my loss and call it a day – even though the trade can go now on forever…
I have not encounter such conditions before and for me the main thing at the moment is to religiously protect the portfolio. Somehow I have thought that I am -$150 instead of -$100 on today’s losses (maybe as I am thinking that every trade I do enter is possible loss and this was the third trade of the day) and that was why I didn’t left the trailing SL on BE + $100 and didn’t left the trade run. I wanted to recover my initial loss + the lost commissions and call it a day. I could have squeeze much more on that trade even on one contract, however I was too much thinking about the data on my charts that I have simply wanted to leave at least with BE. There is always tomorrow and I would like to be a part of it if I can.
All the red macroeconomics has happened before the RTH session opens.
Yesterday the price continued consolidation started on Wednesday 08-03-2017, than it dip down and find solid support at 5340.25. The price has moved during the ON session substantially higher.
The price will either test the high from Wednesday 01-03-2017 and use such area as possible resistance and advertise the price lower in search for more volume or it could retest one of the ON swing lows at 5383.50 or 5382.25 before attempting the run higher.
The price has left open VPOC from yesterday trading and this level can become important later on in the trading sessions as possible support area. There is still open VPOC above the current price level from Wednesday 01-03-2017 which can act as possible support/resistance level.