I choose to enter bit too early again. The SL was triggered and the price then moved 3 ticks lower before moving up.
Good points – I have used SL. I have found relatively solid place for entry. Points for improvements – I could work on better timing for the trade or some kind of retracement to the previous price as this jumping in does cost me quite few lost trades.
Trade 2 Long BE +1
This was nice trade in anticipation of break out above 4777.25 level and yesterday’s VWAP. I have placed the second order deliberately few ticks above the 4769.25 level as I thought that the price may not touch it. The price move was showing strong rejection on the second attempt to pierce through yesterday’s VWAP and I didn’t see this signal and instead added second contract. My thinking at the time was that the price is just playing a game and it will as quickly move up again and this is just sweeping all the SL before the break out. The pity think is that I have been taken out on the last tick as I would like to know if I would have change my mind seeing that the price could not even come closer to the yesterday’s VWAP.
Good points – I have used SL. I have waited for price moving to higher mini range before I have added second contract. I have choose the place for second entry (seeing how the trade unfold it was not as good as I have thought). I have added second contract. Points for improvement – I have missed that the price has formed double top and I am on the wrong side of the market. I could have choose better place for the entry as I wanted to enter on low volume bar and I have used its Close instead of its Open or Low.
Trade 3 Long Loss
I was thinking to place the entry $30 lower however as I have seen the low volume bar I have been thinking that I will be missing out if the market move sharply up and I have entered basically too early. I would be taken out on SL most probably anyway but I want to point that out as this is one of the “I will miss the move “trades.
Good points – I have re-entered the market. I have used SL. I was acting on the impulse of Low volume bar. Points for improvement – I was jumping in on feeling of missing out. I should have realized that the price may retrace a little bit before it moves higher. I was in the wrong side of the trend.
This is showing more often than I would like – jumping in on feeling of missing out instead placing pending order on sensible place and retesting the lows. I will have to dedicate separate days to only practice this.
Trade 4 and 5 Long Loss
I have anticipated trend reversal and I have jumped in again without further confirmation. Again this would be category of missing out the move. I do like though the feeling of safety when the first contract is not really challenged. My initial thought was that the price will just pierce through the 4762.50 level and quickly move up above this level again and find support on it. Well this wasn’t the case even though I have entered another contract slightly higher later on as I was taken out on the last tick again and I have genuinely believed that the market is turning upwards. This assumption was wrong and I must address that with my Daily analyses preparation as it was not really accurate.
Good points – I have used SL. I have anticipated reversal level and acted on it. Points for improvement – I jumped in with the first trade again too early and didn’t wait for any conformation. The place was not chosen accurately too which I have realized later on (I would still enter long however on different level)
Over all there are many issues I must deliberately practice and work on. Today would be better if I would have spend the time practicing certain things instead watching this as this would be price movement which I would normally avoid anyway and possibly I would be interested only at the low of the day.
On Wednesday the price was in consolidation mode. Even though it pushed lower it end up pretty much around its opening RTH level.
During the night session the price was getting higher and it find its resistance on 4793.75 level. During the European session the price is steadily going lower with possible support around 4781.25 level.
The price has climbed above the past days VWAPs and it is trading above yesterday and Tuesday VWAP levels. This may suggest that the price will attempt to go even higher during the RTH session.
The price would want to retest yesterday’s POC and Tuesdays VWAP level and it will then bounce off and head up to retest Nights session high around 4793.75 level.
I have bet on my prediction that the price would bounce off the Tuesday’s VWAP and jumped in with market order. I have quite a slip up in the fill. I have passionately waited for the second contract and my intention was to be filled in on the break out into higher mini range. I got a fill right on the last tick. This really derailed me. My BEP was right below the last swing low at 4780.00 and bringing the SL to BE +1 looked like very silly idea as the low may still be tested. The price took my position away and drops down even lower so no matter what I would have done I would end up losing the position as break up higher didn’t happened. I am completely ignoring major clues from the price action and volume and I am way too fixed in my dream about the market price. Right above the 4789.00 level is a cluster of low volume bars which are nicely visible on my 10 min chart which would prove to be possible resistance level – yet I didn’t notice it till now. My way of thinking was – first and second 10 min candles on 10 min bar have small volume and the price will be shift even higher. Instead this was yet another suggestion that the price does not have any power to go any higher and we will see price testing lower levels. I am feeling like complete ignorant just writing this as I didn’t pick up any clues during the market analyses and during the trading. I was picking only those information’s which supported my up bias of the price.
Good points – I have acted on my prediction. I have used SL. I have placed second order in. I have placed this order above the price in anticipation of break out upwards (even though it didn’t occurred) Points for improvement – I didn’t tread the whole market correctly and didn’t realized that this is not the trend of the price. I failed to place the secondary contract at the swings low. It is hard to judge for me if placing the secondary contract above the price level was mistake especially if I take into the account that break out may have occurred. I have failed to see that this is as high as the price will really go.
Trade 2 Long Loss
Straight after the trade closed I had this feeling of missing out and that the market took my position away just by few ticks. My thinking was in revenge mode. Finding support and reenter and ad second contract ASAP. I will show to all that the price will go to new highs and I will be there with nice two contracts – absolutely incorrect way of thinking and so bad especially once I realized that I was on the wrong side of the market.
Good points – I have used SL Points for improvement – emotional revenge trading. Completely unsupported place in the market to reenter.
Trade 3 Long Loss
This is really continuation of the previous trade. Same mind set. Being on the wrong side of the market. Feeling now I have been stopped on S/D level the market will surely turn. Another very bad thig is the fact that in the heat of my own battle I have forgot about the macroeconomics which will play major impact in the next trade.
Trade 4 Long Loss
Let’s sum up my way of thinking. The market is going to break to new high of the day (this is my misunderstanding of the price action right from the beginning of Daily analyses). I was in good spot with the first trade and the “market” took it from me and I will fight back ideally with at least 2 contracts. I will not hesitate to add the second one ASAP. At this point I have lost the track of time even with talking clock announcing the time every 5 min aloud. No idea about the coming macroeconomics.
So eventually I was in trade with not great filling; however in reasonably low price and if there is retracement I will reenter the second contract. Done deal and just in case I will give a bit more space on the SL so I will not take it to BE +1 but leave my initial $50 now for both contracts. The price bounce off and go against me only by one tick – great I am in right spot. Still no idea about the macros coming. Another retest of 4777.25 level upwards “awesome” then BANG the price is going down the spread going to 6 ticks my SL being hit but with such spread moved 6 ticks lower than expected.
Good points – I have used SL. Points for improvement - Revenge trading. Missing the macroeconomic announcement. Incorrect side of the market.
Today I have realized something important even thanks to this journal. If I use sports analogy – I am doing my best to improve serving yet not understanding properly the rules of the tennis game. There is not much point to spend one more day clicking into the graph any more orders even if they are on Sim account. I must sit down and “get” basic price action and how the market move.
On Thursday during the European session the price has rejected significant level on CVP 4793.75 and that started decline which continued during the RTH. The price find support at Wednesday’s RTH low and after second retest moved sharply upwards again to test high of the swing from European session which was showing previously small volume and unwillingness to trade from the buyers. The price then went lower to test Wednesday’s VWAP and bounced off it just to close around 4777.25 level.
During the night session the price find support at Thursday’s VWAP and eventually bounced off it higher. With the European opening session the price find support on 4777.25 level and continued higher to test the high from yesterday’s RTH. It has consolidated there eventually showing low volume and it went lower to retest today's VWAP and 4777.25 level. With the macroeconomic announcements the price pushed higher and break above the HVN on CVP and 4793.75 level. It tested just above 4800.00 level and currently struggling to push higher.
The Non-Farm Employment Change ended in red numbers which is not very good as well as Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings m/m. All three macroeconomic announcements are bearish.
Even though the announcements are bearish the market will continue pushing higher and attempt to test the highs around 4832.50 level. Not necessarily straight in one day move however over the next few weeks. If it would not be able to go as high another reasonable resistance level is around 4812.00. If this would be the case I would expect the market to test 4793.75 level for support and bounce off it and push either higher or consolidate between levels 4792.50 and 4805.75.
As the data were bearish the price will drop down below the 4793.75 level and test the O/N session high 4800.00 for continued resistance and then going lower and testing 4793.75 for possible resistance and generally going lower. The VP of the night session is showing build up in volume and POC on 4798.00.
The price will oscillate in between 4793.75 and 4752.25 levels and no decision about the direction will be made today.
Just a quick question and I hope this is the correct place to submit it.
Can you direct me to the product you are using for Volume Profile? On the multi-day charts that you’ve posted, I really like how the overnight data is highlight as a separate lighter colored Volume Profile that is displayed over the top of the normal market's Volume Profile.
Macroeconomics – 16:00 (GMT +1) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
On Friday 02-09-2016 the price break above 4812.00 level and find resistance and sharp selling from 4817.75 level which is one tick higher than the high from Friday 26-08-2016. The price then stopped on Thursday 01-09-2016 VPOC and bounced of it.
On Monday 05-09-2016 was US Bank Holiday so the trading during night and European session was much smaller. The price ; however pushed higher and find resistance on 4805.75 level. The price then went lower and during the RTH it retest the Low of the day area form Friday RTH session. The price could not go as low and it closed just below 4793.75 level.
During today’s European session the price has find support above 4793.75 which is HVN on Composite Volume Profile which can be strong bullish signal. The price may start consolidate to gain power to move higher or it will push higher straight away.
On Wednesday 07-09-2016 the market created new higher high and it was sharply rejected, however this shows that the price is still willing to trade higher. The price has bounced off the higher edge of recent range.
During the night session the price has consolidate most of the time around VWAP ; however eventually it found support on it and head higher. During the European session the price retest the top edge of the range and it was rejected by it. The price could not test the yesterday’s RTH High. The price has finds support on 4824.50; however it is trading below the European opening and VWAP as resistance.
The price will still hold bullish momentum and will attempt to at least hit yesterday’s RTH high or go even higher for example after Crude Oil Inventories news.
The price will consolidate for most of the day and trade within the range of first RTH hour.
Update - As the price could not hold the supporting level, there is clearly bearish bias and it can continue all the way down to 4793.75 level.
Last edited by milosv; September 8th, 2016 at 10:08 AM.
The price went below 4793.75 level during yesterday RTH and even though it bounced back it was very bearish signal.
The price was consolidating during the night session just above this level however with European session it moved sharply below this key level. It has found support just above 4762.50 level (in the time of writing).
The price will continue the down move and it can bottom out around 4750.00 level and consolidate for the rest of the day.
The price will not hold back and it will continue slipping further down during the whole day all the way to 4727.50 level.