Yesterday the market retest the 4769.25 level with double bottom formation and closed just above POC and VWAP. During the night session the market was consolidating between yesterday’s LVN at 4784.75 and 4777.25.
The market is close to or at the low edge of the recent range and there is possibility for move higher to possibly test 4802.0 or 4832.50 levels.
For today I would see opportunities around levels 4769.25, 4772.00 or 4777.25 for long trades
My expectations for today were possible strong up move and then perhaps retest of the level 4777.25 or so; however I have been thinking it is pretty much done deal that the price is bouncing off the lower edge of the recent range. This clearly was not the end as the price action showed later on during the day.
The market did start with strong up move yet without me as I didn’t placed pending order above the VWAP so I just watched as the market was going higher and higher thinking about the money I could have made… On the other side to that I have been thinking that the move is really sharp and fast so perhaps the price will eventually go down and retest my intended area of support especially as there was some macroeconomics coming at 16:00. And so it did; however just before the price come to my intended level the little monkey took over me and I have again made some crazy stuff before being on the right side of the market.
Trade 1 Long Loss
As the market went so far I have been thinking that there may be not a full retracement to the price so I have choose 4790.25 level as I have thought that this could be place of possible turn around for the price. At first it did look that the price may stop there; however the next candle took it away. Overall this was the risk I was taking and so far I was happy with my decision. I can see now that I didn’t check the VWAP level as this would help me to determine that perhaps the price may test it and my SL wasn’t big enough to cover that. The biggest mistake I see now at forgetting about the time and the macroeconomic announcement. All of my lost trades occurred before the macro and I have been catching a falling knife hoping that I will eventually succeed. Good points – I have planed the trade and the position place (it wasn’t that good decision however it was planned). I have used SL. Points for improvement – I have again forgotten about the macroeconomic announcement and entered the trade just before it. I didn’t look at the price action and VWAP. I placed pending order even though there was not strong S/D imbalance area and move lower was possible.
Trade 2 Long Loss
This was emotional reaction on the VWAP level and price movement. I still wasn’t aware of the macros and simply thought that VWAP is the supporting level. Well it wasn’t, even though it looked like it at least for a few seconds. Good points – I have used SL Points for improvement – None planed emotional trade and luck of discipline. I wasn’t aware of the macros.
Trade 3 Long Loss
Being smart I have wait for the break out above 4781.25 and then when the price retest the level I will enter. Well at least that was the plan. It didn’t work out and I was straight away taken out of the trade still not aware of the macroeconomic announcement. Good points – I have used SL, I have thought about the price move (even though it was not correct) Points for improvement – I wasn’t aware of the announcement. I wasn’t following my initial plan and just guessing the levels for entry.
Trade 4 Long Loss
At this point I have at least realized that something must be happening and I have remembered the macroeconomic announcement. Still catching the falling knife, already breaking rules, because I have gone beyond the allowed $150 daily loss. I was immediately taken out of the position. Good points – I have used SL Points for improvement – emotional entry, not waiting for the price possible signal.
Trade 5 Long Profit
So eventually I have caught the knife and the price moved swiftly. I was happy with adding the positions in the right place. Not happy at all about the profit taking as I have been waiting way too long for push to 4816.00 level which after the high didn’t come and I was unwilling to lower my PT 3 ticks lower. I had one order running as I was hoping in possible further move higher plus I wanted to attempt it to hold on to it. The disappointing thing was that eventually this cost me $140 in profit as even though NT was still showing BEP in green and my SL was on BE +1 so I have to fiddle a bit with the NT setting. Good points – I have used SL. I have placed the other entries in sensible places and in first half of the move. Points for improvement – I was too thickheaded to move the PL few ticks lower to get out even though the price clearly didn’t want to go any higher. I didn’t have NT set up in the right working order.
Even though I have ended up with profit I must say this wasn’t good trading at all.
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On Friday 26-08-2016 the price has tested lower edge of the recent range and bounce off 4757.50 level with double bottom formation.
The night session es well as European session was trading in tight range under very small cumulative volume – most probably thanks to Bank Holiday in UK. The price was trading under Fridays VWAP; however later on the price has find support on it and now it is trading around Fridays LVN above POC.
The price has created new swing high above the Friday’s closing price which may be suggesting that the price may trade upwards. Supporting levels may be 4785.00 Friday’s POC and VWAP level. 4781.25, 4779.00 or area of night/ European session low. Area around 4793.00 level is HVN and the price may struggle to close above it. If it does though especially on HT it may become strong support level and the price may go higher from this point.
If the price does not find enough volume to trade above the 4793.00 level it may go lower and test the lows again. The 4769.00 level seems like decent place for possible support; however with Fridays movement it may go lower to retest the Fridays lows or it even may test the previous lower range.
I have jumped in by market order while passionately waiting for the price to move down. I have thought that it will either be slightly strong move down if the price wants to test lower areas or it will be just shallow below the last candle’s low. The second option was the correct one and I have then jumped into the market as soon as the price didn’t want to go lower than the low of the last swing. To my surprise by the time the order was filled in, even though there was not great spread I was filled in 12 ticks away from my initial entry point. The price did move up a bit; however not enough and as the price didn’t have enough energy to rise above the recent high I have tighten the SL to BE +1 which was eventually triggered.
The price then retest my initial entry level again however there was not another retest and I was not filled with my pending order so the market made the move without me.
Good points – I have used SL, I have trailed the SL to BE +1 once I have realized that the price could not go above the recent high. Points of improvements – I was thinking to have buy limit order opened way below the current price and then once sure of entry just move it above the current price yet I didn’t do that. This way I would be filled most probably in much better level.
Trade 2 Short BE -1
Knowing that there is a combination of Tuesday 23-08-2016 VWAP and 4793.75 level which represents HVN of recent range and 4792.00 which represents HVN of long term market move which may act as resistance I waited and when the price showed no interest to go any higher I have placed a pending short order. The entry level was badly chosen. I initially wanted to place the order where is the red dotted line; however being scared of missing out I made the same mistake as many times before. Straight after I have been filled in I draw this dotted line to see if the market would come to this place. And it did … 3 times. I have exposed myself to too much heat and on two of the occasions nearly taken out of the trade. If I would have place it in the intended spot my SL would be above the high of the day, I would not experience so much heat and eventually I would not be taken out of the trade on BE-1. So much for my feeling of missing out.
My initial thought was to place second contract 3 ticks below the marked #10 4793.75 level however I dropped this idea as the market was not moving and the likeness of being taken out was nearly 100%. Then I have decided that if the market really finds solid resistance it should drop below Friday’s VWAP and test that level for possible resistance and that would be decent level for second entry. Even though the market would move quite away by that time there would be possibility that price would test 4769.25 level which would be long enough move.
What made me move the SL to BE was mainly the fact that I was aware of the time as the price didn’t break out any lower and there was greater and greater chance that it may go to the opposite direction or retest the highs.
Good points – I have entered the market in opposite direction and exercise being flexible. I have used SL. I have set up talking clock so I was aware of the time going by and moved the SL to BE -1 which I still believe was a good decision. I didn’t add the second contract and instead waited which was one of my intentions to practice. Points for improvement – The biggest error was the entry level as it was too low. I should have acted on my logic and not being impatient. My SL would be in much better place, I would not experience so much heat and eventually I would stay in the trade longer with less risk then I have experienced.
I could see that the price can not go any lower then Wednesday 24-08-2016 VWAP however I didn't have the balls to enter the long position which is something to look at too.
The price during the RTH on Monday closed up; however there was strong indecision around 4795.50 level. The price eventually went up and finds resistance on 4805.75 and after small consolidation went down and closed at Monday’s VWAP level.
The night session was moving in tight consolidation. Whit European opening session the price attempted to push higher; however it could not sustain the move and it dropped lower and funded support around 4781.00
The price could not create new high above the Monday’s last RTH swing high 4800.00 level during the night session or European session. The price is trading below Monday’s VWAP level. The price is currently below the daily VWAP with cluster of VWAP for the last 5 trading days above the current price. The price will be testing lover areas for support. It may test today’s VWAP for resistance and after the macroeconomic announcements at 16:00 it may go lower to search for more volume.
The price will mainly consolidate in-between 4775.25 and 4790.75 levels with possibly testing the Monday VWAP for resistance.
The price could not create new high above the Monday’s last RTH swing high 4800.00 level during the night session or European session. The price is trading below Monday’s VWAP level. The price is currently below the daily VWAP with cluster of VWAP for the last 5 trading days above the current price. The price will be testing lower areas for support. It may test today’s VWAP for resistance and after the macroeconomic announcements at 16:00 it may go lower to search for more volume.
I have made mistake in assumption of the place where the price may turn. I was anticipating price reversal if it goes up. This was correct, however I was predicting the place to be the lover edge of the European opening and this was fundamentally wrong place.
If I want to go short the price will likely test the previous high. If I want to go long the price will likely test the previous low of any intended S/D area. That is why one often sees double or triple tops or bottoms forming on the charts. That is why the price on opening didn’t stop at the bottom of the European session swing but it tested the validity of the top of that swing and as there was still no interest to trade higher it went to look for volume lower. This is such fundamental information – yet I got it wrong and because of that I have placed 3 trades at the wrong spot.
I have taken this trade because of wrong assumption of possible place where the price may turn. I wanted to enter on VWAP if there is possible weakness on the penetrating candle and I did. I could have seen that the market did turn against me yet I still didn’t close the trade sooner. Good points – I have used SL, I have acted on my idea (even though it was proven to be wrong) Points for improvement – I could have cut the trade off once I have realized that it is not going in my direction yet I didn’t. My understanding and spot pick for the trend reversal was wrong and because of that the trade was very likely lost one right from the entry point.
Trade 2 Short Loss
This was just emotional trade. I will have to re-watch the video in order to understand what I was thinking and if I have made any comment about why am I entering. As such I will take this trade as jumping the gun type of trade which must be avoided under any circumstances. Good points –I have used SL Points for improvement – emotional trade
Trade 3 Short Loss
With this my thought was that the 4793.75 level may prove to be solid resistance. I didn’t even wait for any kind of conformation and as such I will be taking it as emotional trade. I could have seen that the price is moving against me yet I didn’t cut the trade off even though I have been thinking about it in the time. Good points – I have used SL, I have determined possible entry level Points for improvement – I have still jumped a gun, it was emotional trade. I could close the trade sooner yet I didn’t do so.
Trade 4 Short Profit
Once I have realized that the most likely place for price turn would be the previous night session high I jumped in again and caught decent spot. I wanted to add second entry in the drawn level however I didn’t which can be taken as point for improvement. I didn’t add second entry as I could not find any decent spot after that. Another point for improvement would be the fact that I have closed the trade too early. The entry point was in good place and if nothing else’s the likeliness that the lower edge of the range (marked in green color) would be touch was high I could have waited for this to happen. If I would have waited I would realize that the price went much lower than I have anticipated and who knows how I would react and if I would switch directions later on. Good points – I have used SL. I have realized that the price can bounce of the previous high level. I was at least thinking about adding another contract. The place I have chosen for the second contract proved to be correct. Points for improvement – I didn’t add the second contract. I didn’t drive the market all the way even though I have taken that as option in my Daily analyses.
Trade 5 Long Loss
This was anticipated trade. I have thought that I will jump into the trade just before it will retest the 4777.25 level; however the market didn’t have the intention to turn so I went straight into the loss. I had chance to close the trade sooner yet I didn’t act on. Good points – I have used SL, I have anticipated possible place or turn. Points for improvement – I didn’t have any conformation that the trend is changing except high volume. I didn’t close the loosing position sooner.
Trade 6 and 7 Long Loss
I am putting these trades together as they are both the same. The previous trade ended right on the low edge of predefined range and I have thought that I must jump in as the price has bottomed out. This was completely wrong and it was just emotional trading of catching falling knife. These trades are something I must work on to eliminate. Good points – I have used SL Points for improvement – Emotional reaction to knowing better than the market where it should bottom out and once prove wrong I just fight my significance with opening another trade and hoping to be eventually right.
Trade 8 Long Loss
I have took a bit of risk; however seeing the dojis on the smaller time frame and being right below the 4769.25 level I have placed pending order above it and then moved it lower. The market was quick in the move up and I have waited for possible secondary entry. The market then moved lower to test my chosen spot and I have entered with the second contract. The market then break up above 4777.25 S/D level and I was in nice open profit however the market then sharply rejected higher levels and went all the way down to 4769.25. At this point as the market went lower I have decided to allow $50 SL for both contracts so I have basically broke the rule; however my understanding was that the market can move up and have decent run so I have took that risk of $50. This proved to be good decision as the price could not go any lower and I started thinking about good place to add third contract. Once the price tested the 4777.25 again even though it didn’t go through it I was thinking that it would just retrace to the lower edge of the range (green line) and bounce of it. And in the way it did; however it was then strongly rejected. I was cool about that I once the market closed above that level I just thought that it may test some lower prices again but the break upwards is inevitable. Well I was wrong. I have market my BE level with the blue line as the market moved against me I have done the same thing with my SL and moved it to$65 for all 3 contracts. The first piercing through missed mi by one tick however eventually the price moved against me again and triggered the SL. Over all I am happy with the trade and what I have done. The places were carefully chosen and I genuinely believed that there is possibility for breaking upwards. Good points – I have used SL. I have added two more contracts. I have waited for the entries and choose the place carefully Points for improvement – I missed the price action signals that the price does not want to go any higher and to the last moment believed that the break up will happen.
The price on Tuesday tested 4793.75 level and was rejected. It went lower to 4761.00 level where it has find solid support and quickly bounced it off it. The price has closed at VWAP level with support on 4777.25 level.
The night session as well as the European session is trading in tight range in between 4777.25 and 4769.25 levels which are representing HVN of the longer term range.
The price is trading below yesterday’s VWAP which may be suggesting that the price will continue using this level as possible resistance and it will pretty much oscillates in between 4781.25 and 4762.50 levels.
The 4769.25 is significant support level and the price has tested it many times with same result. The price will bounce of it again and expand from the range and find support above the today’s range at 4777.25. With Crude Oil Inventories announcements it may head off higher and possibly retest 4793.75 level.