I was anticipating the trend reversal. The main mistake was to get fouled by the price as I have clearly drawn the blue rectangular in my daily analyses which was marking the possible low and high of the range yet I still got tempted into the position too early because of the consolidation. I didn't move the stop loss to close the position sooner as I have thought that perhaps it will be only bear trap. Good points - I have waited for the price to come to me instead to chase it. I did use SL and I didn't move my SL to any worst place. Points for improvement - The entry was in decent place and I could have close the trade sooner once I have realized that it went against me. I could shave off perhaps $10 which would pay for the next commission. I ignored my hard work and previous analyses and instead start playing the market game. The scarcity kicked in that I would loose the move if I wait for a better price.
Trade 2 Long, Loss
This was still emotional reaction to the previous trade. Still thinking this is "bears trap" I have quickly re-enter and put another money at risk - exactly what the market wants. Good points - I have used SL. I have cut the trade off as soon as I have realized that I am wrong in my assumptions. I have realized that my entry point was in the wrong place (even though while writing this - it will perhaps made me aware sooner in the future trading). The trade was in the area of possible entry. Points of improvement - I entered on emotion and not because of my planning. I could have get better price but instead I have used market order (which is pretty much conformation of being emotional)
Trade 3 Long BEP +1
The price has touch the #09 S/D imbalance level and was strongly rejected. I was a bit worried that it will be V shape support so I have jumped into the trade not waiting for possibly better price. This is continuation of the previous mental dis balance from the trade 1 and 2. This continued with the addition of the second contract as I didn't wait and juped in way too early even though I could have get filled at least 5 to 7 ticks lower which may have save the entire trade Good points - I have used SL. I trailed the SL to BEP +1. I have added into the position. I have anticipated the right direction of the market. Points for improvement - Both positions could get much better filling if I would hold the horses and go in with pending order.
Trade 4 Long BEP +1
This trade is unfortunately yet again emotionally driven one. I didn't look properly into the higher time frame and didn't get better filling for the trade. The idea was good, the place was good too; however I should have placed the trade 4 ticks lower. Good points - I have used SL. I trailed the SL to BEP +1. I have re-entered possibly profitable chance again. Points for improvement - I could have much better filling. I was not fully in control of myself as I was chasing the trade instead the trade coming to me.
Trade 5 Long Profit
I have waited for the better price and as it come to possible support on the higher time frame I have placed pending order. The place proved to be correct and the price has swiftly move in my direction. It has moved so swiftly that I was a bit suspicious and didn't re enter with the second order quicker as I was worried that the price may play a game and it will as swiftly turn against me. With the second order I was waiting on the #11 S/D imbalance level however the price was too fast and didn't retrace to it so I have entered on break out. The exit wasn't really that nice either. The price was moving too fast so I thought that the return if there is not a proper break out of the range would be fairly fast too. That is why I didn't wait for any double top or any other conformation that the move is over and I was caught in not such a great place. Good points - I have realized that there is very small cumulative volume on the higher time frame and the market may move. I get better place for entry and my trading was calm and calculative and it did pay off. I have added second position. I have ride the main move and waited for break out of the range. Points for improvement - I could have add another contract. I didn't place the trailing SL in right place and because of that I was taken out in bad place.
Over all I am pleased as I have done what I wanted to do most of the time. Mainly I was working successfully on some of my bad behavior and it paid off.
Last edited by milosv; August 19th, 2016 at 01:53 PM.
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Macroeconomics – N/A
Company earnings – N/A
Holidays – N/A
On Friday the price has tested again the higher edge of the range with no interest to trade higher and very small cumulative volume on the top. The price then went lower in search for volume. Retested the #10 S/D imbalance level and started to build up its way up again. The market closed at #12 S/D imbalance level.
The price during the night session was in decline and it find support again on #10 S/D imbalance level which is the lower edge of the range. It went quickly up which is prove of strong imbalance on such level and retested #14 S/D imbalance level for resistance. There was very small cumulative volume above #13 level and the price was moved higher, that would suggest that there is a will to trade possibly higher. The price then sharply went down to #10 level again and bounce off it. The price is currently just below #11 S/D imbalance level under very small cumulative volume. This may suggest that the price may move out of the recent levels. The fact that there is no red macros and there is consolidation of VWAPs from the whole week around #11 level and that #10 S/D imbalance level is POC of the whole move (started on Friday 05-08-2016 till now) is suggesting that there may be possible break out of the recent range and the price may test new highs above #14 S/D imbalance level.
Trading opportunities - go long around #10 level and wait for possible break out above #14 level (even though #14 may still act as resistance level to the price for some time) If it will be trending day the price may not pull back all the way to #10 S/D level.
I wasn’t so sure that the price will stop there as the price action was not so convincing at first. I have left the whole SL to be hit as there was another possible support level just below #10 S/D level which was today’s LOW of the pre-market. Good points – I have used SL. I have placed the order in the right place as per my analyses. I have made decision regarding leaving the SL intact. Points for improvement – It was safer to wait if the price action will prove me correct especially as there was new low just few ticks away.
Trade 2 Loss
I have been waiting for retracement of the price however the order just above the level #10 was triggered first. I have closed the trade in loss literally tick away from the price turn. It does not look like a smart move however when the price has reversed I was worried that the whole SL will be triggered anyway. Good points – I have used SL. I have closed the position when I see that the SL may not be enough. I have re-entered the market after previous loss. Points for improvement – there were great chance that the price would retrace a bit and retest the last bearish candle. The fact that I was entered by pending order higher suggests that the order should be placed higher and after the chance of retracement entry.
Trade 3 BEP/Loss
This trade was emotional and it shows. I have thought that I am missing out and the fact that the price didn’t go any lower with my previous trade and that I could have stayed in the trade made me leave sensible trading and emotionally jump into it. The fact that the price did go higher suggested that the price may still come back and retest the #10 level again. Quick peak on higher time frame and realization of a long tail at the bottom of the candle made me think of strong break out higher especially with the low cumulative volume before the market opening. That is why I have jumped in with the second contract so early. The main mistake was not to tighten the SL as per my rules and I have ended with small loss instead of BE (it was just set to BE and not BE+1). Good points – I have used SL. I have added into the position. I was close to my initial entry level from my daily analyses. Points for improvement – I was emotional and thought that I will be missing out. I have jumped too soon with the second contract (it should have been placed at higher mini range)
Trade 4 Loss
That was again just pure emotional trade. Seeing the BEP being triggered and the price stopping just 2 ticks lover made me think I am missing the break out. (The break out finally come while I am writing this). I have closed the position as soon as I have realized that I am acting silly. That was a win even though I have ended up with a loss. The main thing is to work on my discipline and the whole entry wasn’t disciplined and planed, therefore at least the exit could be disciplined. Good points – I have used SL. I have closed the position even though it was extremely uncomfortable to make this decision instead to leave it on market to do it for me with triggering the full SL. Points for improvement – I knew that I am being emotional (hence previous trade’s thoughts) yet I still didn’t take a small break to breath and relax before re-entering trade which have great chances for break upwards.
Trade 5 Loss
This was good re-entry of the price movement. It was in previously defined spot and it was triggered. It was low enough so my Sl would be definitely safe. The issue comes after the break out above the VWAP as the price didn’t have enough strength to go through the #11 S/D imbalance level in first go. It was coming out of worry that I will be missing out. This would be perfect trade only if I would place the second contract above all the VWAPs and #11 S/D level. Good points – I have used SL. I have added into the position. I have established correct place for the initial entry. My whole daily analyses seem to work. Points for improvements – Emotional entry of the second contract. The awareness of being close to my SL limit for the day pushed me to get profits instead of concentrate on good trading. The biggest mistake was that I didn’t close the position on BE as I let the market take more than need it. I have used all my bullets before the market moved and now I must be watching the intended move without me with possible break out above the #14 S/D imbalance level which I intended to be part of.
To some it may look like lost trading day, especially when one look at the break out upwards with possible $700 on 2 contracts. I am however pleased. So fare this trading journal is helping me to avoid most of my worst toxic behavior. I have made mistakes which should be avoided, however the initial market analyses was correct, the entry points were in reasonable place and that is important to me. The rest I still have to work on.
Macroeconomics – N/A
Company Earnings – N/A
Holidays – N/A
On Monday the price was continue to trading in predefined range in between #10 and #14 S/D imbalance levels. After 21:10 there was clear unwillingness to trade in the range and the cumulative volume has dropped. Even though the price has closed below the #13 S/D imbalance level it was highly possible that the move higher began.
Night session – the price has retested #12 S/D imbalance level for support and validity of no interest to trade any lower and bounce upwards. Just before the European opening session the price has retested #13 S/D imbalance level for support just to finally head upwards to break through the # 14 S/D imbalance level. The move above the #14 level was supported by small volume level. The price has find resistance on the RTH highs from Monday 15-08-2016.
There will be solid attempt to go higher, however hopefully not without prior retracement back to the higher edge of the previous range or to #12 - #13 or #14 S/D imbalance level. (#14 S/D imbalance level or 4814.25 would be my bet if there is any retracement)
Even though there was opportunity to place the trade on #14 S/D imbalance level as I intended it went below the level bit deeper and the return was not really convincing that the price will turn upwards without coming back. I didn't place any trades today.
On Tuesday the market created new high above the #16 S/D imbalance level. It was rejected just few tics above the recent highs from Monday 15-08-2016. The price then find support on #14 S/D imbalance level where it closed too.
The night session found resistance on Tuesdays POC and went lower to find more volume. It has find support on #12 level which was supported with Friday’s and Thursday’s VWAP. The price then bounced off and for a while consolidated above #13 S/D level. With the positive German macroeconomics the price has dropped lower to find support just below Mondays POC. This area was previously market with very low cumulative volume and no interest to trade there, towards the end of the Monday. This proved as strong support and the price quickly went to trade higher. It comes to same level as yesterday’s POC however it could not go any higher. The price is now consolidating between #14 and #15 S/D level with very small cumulative volume.
The price could not go above the yesterday’s POC and small volume around this area suggests that the price may not be ready yet to be pushed higher (this assumption may be completely wrong and the price may shoot above this level once the market opens). There may be re-test of the levels below the current price for possible support before the price will get any higher. #12 and #13 or 4815.00 would be good areas to watch for possible long entry.
I have been absolutely wrong with my analyses and thanks to that all of my trades went on the long side.
Trade 1 Long BE +1
I waited for support on #13 S/D level and once conformed I have entered long position. The price has challenge my SL little bit and then swiftly moved higher. I didn’t want to enter straight away the second position so I have waited for break out above the #14 S/D level with support on VWAP and once the price come back to the #14 S/D level I have entered the second contract. I was still hoping for possible break out upwards which was completely wrong assumption and because of that I failed to notice any clues the market would be giving me. The trade was just going down once the second contract was entered. I have closed the position on BE +1 Good points – I have used SL. I have entered in right moment close to the S/D level. I have reentered with second contract. I have waited with adding the second contract. The second contract was entered in sensible place. Points for improvement – I have failed to notice that the price could not go any higher and there is area with low volume just above it which may prevent the price to go any higher. I didn’t take into the account that there is macroeconomic announcement les then hour away.
Trade 2 Long Loss
This was emotional trade entered straight away after the first one was closed. It was a reaction with feeling that I am missing out. I have lost full initial stop loss on this which was not necessary. Good points – I have used SL. I didn’t move the SL any lower. Points for improvement – Emotional trade. This is something to avoid under any circumstances. I have failed to notice that the price could not go any higher and there is area with low volume just above it which may prevent the price to go any higher. I didn’t take into the account that there is macroeconomic announcement les then hour away.
Trade 3 Long Loss
This was an attempt to reenter the market on #13 S/D level. The entry was a bit late. The market was clearly indicating that there is issue to move any higher above #14 S/D level. The biggest issue was that I didn’t moved the SL to BEP even though I had it there and instead wanted to give bit more slag and because of that I have lost half of my initial SL which was unnecessary. Good points – I have attempted to reenter the market on the level which I have thought was correct one for long entry as per my daily analyses. I have used SL. Points for improvement – I have moved the SL against me even though I have had it previously on BE +1 and because of that I have lost money. I have failed to notice that the price could not go any higher and there is area with low volume just above it which may prevent the price to go any higher. I didn’t take into the account that there is macroeconomic announcement less then hour away.
Trade 4 Long BE +1
This was a bit emotional entry again. I have noticed that there is macroeconomics announcement coming and as I have realized that my entry was bit higher then I would like to I have closed the position on BE +1 Good points – I have used SL. I have moved the SL to BE +1. I have realized that there is macroeconomic announcement which I have forgotten about. Points for improvement – I jumped into the trade because of my emotions.
Trade 5 Long Loss
I have reentered the market; however without much thinking. I have placed the pending limit order on #13 S/D level without realizing that it may test the lows of some previous candles which pierced below #13 level. If I would have done that I would realize that the level is not holding much support any more. I have failed to realized that the price do not have any power to even go higher and the #13 level is becoming resistance. Good points – I have used SL. Points for improvement – I didn’t place the pending order in the right place. If I avoid the fact that I was on completely wrong side of the market the pending order still should be placed 3 ticks lower. Taking into the account of the macroeconomic announcement I have failed to realized that the market is moving in opposite direction to my trades.
Trade 6 Long Loss
This was just emotional reaction. Once the trade has closed I have reentered by market order at the exactly same spot as my loss took place. I would be probably better off with just moving my initial SL against me with the previous trade as I would save on the commission fees. Good points – I have used SL. Points for improvement – I have failed to control myself. I have failed to realize that the trend direction has changed.
Trade 7 Long BE +1
This was again emotional trade. With the loosing trades I was all over the place and was still worried that I will be missing out the reversal of the market. I could not be further away from the truth. Good points – I have used SL. I have closed the position on BE +1. Points for improvement – it started to scream in me that the trend may be going short and not long yet I didn’t act on that. I was so blind and busy with my emotions that I didn’t do anything.
Trade 8 Long Loss
This was the last nail into my coffin. Even the previous trade was taken with the knowledge that I am over my daily loss budget yet I have still entered it and now I have done this again. This is huge issue especially as I am aware of this toxic behavior of mine and I am in process of building up my discipline on this matter. The entry was emotional, in the wrong spot and over my daily loss allowance. Good points – I have used SL. Points for improvements – The main one is not to take any more trade once I exceed my daily loss limit.
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I have been using markings from my graphs of the alert levels such as "#11 S/D imbalance level" in previous writings; however I have realized that the lines may change as the Volume Profile change and it may become quite confusing as currant #16 level may represent completely different level then #16 two weeks ago. Because of this I will always use the value of the level such as 4714.50 as this will always represent the same level over any period of time.
Regarding my trades and their screenshots I will place the comment about each trade into the screenshot as it will be much easier to understand what was happening and what was my thinking while looking at the actual screenshot.
Macroeconomics – 14:30 Core Durable Goods Orders m/m and Unemployment Claims
Both announcements were positive.
Company earnings - Broadcom Ltd, Dollar Tree Inc, Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc, Autodesk Inc
Joined weight on the market 2.15%
Holidays – N/A
The price has come to lower edge of its range on Wednesday trading. The 4772.50 level was strongly rejected.
During the night session the price has tested 4791.25 level which was low of one of yesterday’s swings and it was pushed lower with no interest to trade any higher. The price then dropped and tested yesterday’s lows; however it could not go all the way to yesterday’s low and stopped few ticks above it.
4772.00 to 4762.50 areas would be good place for possible long entries in case the market breaks upwards and attempt to retest 4793.75 level or 4832.50 level.
Yesterday as well as today I have traded on live account. Yesterday was disaster and today actually too even though I have ended up with tiny profit. I will have to trade on paper account until I do not make at least $10K.
Trade 1 Long Loss Live Acc.
I have jumped into this trade with market order as I come to the screens few seconds after the open. Not looking properly and not taking my time to even place the pending order at the open of the bullish candle at the last swing. Not that it would have to be triggered however with the rejection on 4777.25 there was great chance that it would, in the hind side if I would be present and noticed it I may not go into the trade on such level anyway. The price has attempted to go higher; however failed (red arrows) and I have failed to take any notice. Regarding the SL – I have switched on the live platform and the ATM Strategy was set to <None> instead strategy with preset $50 SL, because of that I had to enter sell order below the price. This took my eyes from what was happening in the graph and instead fiddling and calculating where to place the SL. With this I have lost $40 instead of the preset $50 with the ATM Strategy. Good points – I have noticed that there is no SL. I have entered SL order into the market as soon as I have realized it. Points for improvement – I was not in front of the screens well before the market started and because of this made quite few mistakes. I didn’t have the correct ATM Strategy selected. I wasn’t paying attention to the price movement and instead I was dealing with SL order which was missing.
Trade 2 Long Loss Live Acc.
This was emotional trade. Once I have closed the trade the price moved quickly a bit higher. Without even thinking I just jumped in and watched as the market went straight away against me. Good points – I have used SL. Points for improvement – Wait for decent place to enter my position based on my previous “Daily analyses” work.
Trade 3 Long BE +1 Live Acc.
This order was triggered too late as I have moved it to 4769.25 however the market rejected as by the time it has arrived to the exchange the price was already higher. By the time I have moved it again the price has triggered it and I was in the trade. The place was still good one as the price went straight higher suggesting strong S/D imbalance.
The main problem was again in entering second contract as I am highly impatient and do not wait for decent retracement of the price still fighting my scarcity of losing out on the potential move. Because of this the whole trade went to the toilet. The first order was in fantastically positioned to hold it for really long time yet because of the second one I was put with my BEP in such a silly place. I have moved the SL against me which is the biggest mistake I have done as this could have ended up in disaster if the price would retest 4769.25 level or go even lower. I could have taken at least a small profit out of the open profit; however my inability to read the chart and living on hope that the price may miraculously go up made me stuck in the position till the close. Good points – I have added into my profitable position. I have used SL with my initial entry. Points for improvement – I moved the SL of both contracts against me – exposing my portfolio to great loss. I didn’t wait for proper retracement of the price before entering my second contract. I didn’t take any profit when the price could not close strongly above the VWAP suggesting that the price will go against me anyway.
Trade 4 Long Profit Live Acc.
This was rather emotional entry as the market pushed higher and I didn’t wait for any decent pullback. The second order was placed on break out which didn’t last at all and I have been trapped straight away exposing myself to major loss. Living on the hope and prayer the market eventually moved higher and I have closed the position with small profit just to end the day pretty much on BE. Good points – I have used SL on my initial entry. I have added another contract into my profitable trade. Points for improvement – I didn’t wait for any decent place to enter the market and instead jumped in on emotional impulse. I moved the SL of both contracts against me – exposing my portfolio to great loss. I didn’t wait for proper retracement of the price before entering my second contract.
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