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Overnight trading journal


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Overnight trading journal

  #1 (permalink)
 HoopyTrading 
Boston, MA
 
Posts: 264 since Apr 2014

Hello. I have been messing with overnight positions, and I am attaching a couple of screen shots. They are the results of a month of forward testing in simulation on live data using from 1 to 10 contracts at a clip. (One of them went 20 deep on accident. Wrong button, oops). The assumption was based on $90K cash in the account at the start of the trial.

I want to know why it won't work in real life. What is wrong with this? (The first is the summary over the past 30 days, the next three are the trade logs showing, as best I can muster, the cumulative effects.

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  #3 (permalink)
 asherrizwan 
Vancouver
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja Trader 8
Posts: 9 since Oct 2015
Thanks Given: 7
Thanks Received: 1



HoopyTrading View Post
Hello. I have been messing with overnight positions, and I am attaching a couple of screen shots. They are the results of a month of forward testing in simulation on live data using from 1 to 10 contracts at a clip. (One of them went 20 deep on accident. Wrong button, oops). The assumption was based on $90K cash in the account at the start of the trial.

I want to know why it won't work in real life. What is wrong with this? (The first is the summary over the past 30 days, the next three are the trade logs showing, as best I can muster, the cumulative effects.


What was the logic behind these trades, would you like to explain a little ?

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  #4 (permalink)
 HoopyTrading 
Boston, MA
 
Posts: 264 since Apr 2014

The logic was based on what long-term fib retraces were doing on long-term charts (custom Renko bar-based), and staying in overnight positions. There was a bit of scaling-in involved, which you can see through those losing contract closures on the trade pics.

My query is, if one can survive this sort of shakiness over the long term in sim, will it work with real money? I took a beating one day last year in live market using the scaling method, but I had not considered staying overnight for recovery. (P.S. ash, that is what I meant about it being dangerous to do in futures, if you just want to daytrade.)

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  #5 (permalink)
 asherrizwan 
Vancouver
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninja Trader 8
Posts: 9 since Oct 2015
Thanks Given: 7
Thanks Received: 1


HoopyTrading View Post
The logic was based on what long-term fib retraces were doing on long-term charts (custom Renko bar-based), and staying in overnight positions. There was a bit of scaling-in involved, which you can see through those losing contract closures on the trade pics.

My query is, if one can survive this sort of shakiness over the long term in sim, will it work with real money? I took a beating one day last year in live market using the scaling method, but I had not considered staying overnight for recovery. (P.S. ash, that is what I meant about it being dangerous to do in futures, if you just want to daytrade.)

How do you get in a trade and which Fib levels do you prefer to trade at ? You mentioned that it involves scaling in, i suppose you mean that if one Fib level is not respected and then instead of a stop out, you'd scale in at the next Fib level ? Yes that would mean that the trade positions would have to be kept live over night and maybe for more than one night.

How do you calculate the Fib levels because this is more of an art in itself. I have looked at Emini Futures, Trading Strategies, Live Emini Trading Room & Trading Videos - Emini Addict and have heard good things about it. I would love to have a look at the way you trade. The Trade Logs you've posted look good and if it does involve staying live overnight, so be it. However with account size of around 100K is a condition which may not suit everyone.

Please elaborate if you may and let us know about your methodology.

Thanks

Asher

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  #6 (permalink)
 HoopyTrading 
Boston, MA
 
Posts: 264 since Apr 2014


asherrizwan View Post
How do you get in a trade and which Fib levels do you prefer to trade at ? You mentioned that it involves scaling in, i suppose you mean that if one Fib level is not respected and then instead of a stop out, you'd scale in at the next Fib level ? Yes that would mean that the trade positions would have to be kept live over night and maybe for more than one night.

How do you calculate the Fib levels because this is more of an art in itself. I have looked at Emini Futures, Trading Strategies, Live Emini Trading Room & Trading Videos - Emini Addict and have heard good things about it. I would love to have a look at the way you trade. The Trade Logs you've posted look good and if it does involve staying live overnight, so be it. However with account size of around 100K is a condition which may not suit everyone.

Please elaborate if you may and let us know about your methodology.

Thanks

Asher

FYI, I noticed I forgot a pic in the OP which showed the real knuckle-biter portion of this monthly test. Here's the filler that goes in between Pics 3 and 4 above...

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  #7 (permalink)
 HoopyTrading 
Boston, MA
 
Posts: 264 since Apr 2014

Here's current performance as of today from 5/17 (Stand by ash, I will get to your latest question...)

1st pic is summary of current 4 day total after 5/16, second is the trade window for those 4 days, third is the running summary since 4/16.

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  #8 (permalink)
 HoopyTrading 
Boston, MA
 
Posts: 264 since Apr 2014


asherrizwan View Post
How do you get in a trade and which Fib levels do you prefer to trade at ? You mentioned that it involves scaling in, i suppose you mean that if one Fib level is not respected and then instead of a stop out, you'd scale in at the next Fib level ? Yes that would mean that the trade positions would have to be kept live over night and maybe for more than one night.

How do you calculate the Fib levels because this is more of an art in itself. I have looked at Emini Futures, Trading Strategies, Live Emini Trading Room & Trading Videos - Emini Addict and have heard good things about it. I would love to have a look at the way you trade. The Trade Logs you've posted look good and if it does involve staying live overnight, so be it. However with account size of around 100K is a condition which may not suit everyone.

Please elaborate if you may and let us know about your methodology.

Thanks

Asher

Ash, unfortunately, my methodology does not involve just technical analysis, but also some fundamental and "intuition" about a market, as it were. I know this whole "intuition thing" is not something that can be proven and can even be very dangerous, but I suppose it just comes from a gasping grasp of what a market can do, how much you are on the hook for if it goes against you, and the basis of supply and demand in that sector of the world market. GC is still a tough nut to crack, but over the long term it's more stable in my eyes than equities.

So here's what I look at on long-term Fibbos. Find an entry point on a cycle, and take it to 50%. It could take weeks for it to do so on a long-term chart, but who cares if your account is well-heeled and you are in it with 1 lousy contract on a contract month that doesn't close for two to three months? Notice the following is Aug GC, so FN date is end of July. Will the price never get back to that level in 7 weeks?

First pic is GC. You'll notice that I am actually in for 2ct, oops, that was a mistake, but the point is the same and a large account could handle a serious pullback before margin demons come knocking on the door. The Fib level is traced over a 5 day period. What are the chances that it will reach the 50% level? Based upon my experience, very good, based on even longer term charts. As the world markets are still shaky, GC always remains a good investment. If I had been in for 1ct my target would have been that 50% as displayed. But since I screwed up and scaled in a bit early, I dropped my target for 2ct to the 38% level, which seems to be a point of resistance anyways. If I am filled at my target, that is still +42tics*2. $840 minus $10 RT expenses? I'll take it! Next post incoming...

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  #9 (permalink)
 HoopyTrading 
Boston, MA
 
Posts: 264 since Apr 2014

Next we have CL. See attached pic #1.

Note that on this long-term chart we have two Fibbos. The small one starting at May 12th to the 18th. It pulled back to it's 50% the next day, the 19th.

The second Fib is larger, starting back on May 10th and going to same top as 18th. The small retrace made it to 50%, but the second larger retrace did not make it, and has been forming higher lows up until the smaller 50% retrace lower low. But what is August CL going to do in the time between now and the end of July, what with summer demand coming up, and WTI refineries continuing to balk at the idea of starting up production again? In that time, can the price reach to 100% retrace on the longer timeframe of about 50 bux per barrel? I sure think so. In the meanwhile, if it doesn't and sinks, who cares? I am in the thing with 1ct and a well-heeled account, and I have 2 months to recover!

So get in and stay there if that is your belief!

And when you go back to look at your shorter term charts and see what is in pic#2, don't bloody panic! Remember, you were trading the long-term charts for a long term gain! (CL and GC are the top charts). So don't flip back to small charts and see patterns that are not on long term charts! That will get you into trouble and make you want to panic close at a loss. Trust your system.

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  #10 (permalink)
 HoopyTrading 
Boston, MA
 
Posts: 264 since Apr 2014


Been a tough two weeks, buns of steel and stuff, especially after the severe GC drop. But today's nasty USA jobs report got me some relief. Here's some pics, starting from the last shot of May 20th.

First is the current look of the large GC August chart. Yes, I'm in for 10 cts due to a bad scale-in early on in the drop, that was a bad move, and I would have had to scale out some losing positions to hold maintenance margin. But it looks like it will recover by end of July. If not, I'm in trouble. We shall see.

Second is latest Aug CL retrace chart over long-term. Seems to be consolidating a bit. Sorry it looks so messy, but I need the various Fibbos and trend-lines on there for analysis.

Third pic is summary from where we left off, 05/20, to today 06/03.

Fourth and fifth pics are the trades from that time-frame.

Sixth pic is the summary from 04/16 to today 06/03.









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Last Updated on November 2, 2016


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