K, so the problem with the final sim summary above are three-fold.
First...If that CL nastiness from the previous few weeks happened on first attempt with a fresh account of 75K, I'd have been blown out.
Second...2 FUBARS. See all the sim accounts, and how there are four of them? The final numbers are not realistic over the course of the journal because if I was in a 10ct position in GC at $6K per ct overnight in live and it was down $15K at end of day, I could not also be in a 1ct position in CL in same live account. I only gots one live account. That was first fubar.
Next fubar in the end of the analysis is that I did not understand what my NLV would have been at end of each settlement price per day. So that would have affected my understanding of the need or not have the need to reduce my positions based on the settlement price, rather than the end-of-day price.
Third...I now realize that my broker doesn't just use the CME overnight numbers for calculating NLV, but the initial margin, which is 10% higher than the overnight. That could have changed things in my working the trades as well.
So when all is said and done, I now have just about all of the information I need to transition fully to live. I'll still take sim trades, sure, but from here on out, unless requested, I'll be posting only live stuff. Go big or go home, as they say.
(I feel like I am losing years off of my life in this. I hope it's worth it.)
Nothing live yet, still quite nervous. Yes, even in MGC, because something smells funny with the world at the moment. Retraces may not hold, and I hate August trading, so standing back today. I hate to be superstitious, but I REALLY HATE TRADING IN AUGUST!
Anyhoo, there is something rintin2X mentioned a couple months ago in the thread, and it makes me feel bad...
"But I'm really looking forward seeing how it unfolds when you starting doing the live account. Keep up the good work!"
Keep up the good work...
That last CL disaster in the sim account still bothers me to no bloody end. I would have been toast. So it was not "good work".
And as followers of this thread may know, I try to bring a bit of levity to my stuff, because we all need a kind of break from the seriousness of it all.
So there is a response I wanted to give to the thread in the form of a funny Conan video, and my response to "Keep up the good work" combined with my major failure in that CL position. It is summed up in Thomas Middleditch's line in the following bit. Watch for it. It involves the thermal detonator.
That's exactly how I feel about that last sim crap. Idiot! Idiot! *Smacks own head*
Well, we are now coming out of the summer doldrums of trading. I haven't done any live since that last one at end of July. Live trading trauma takes a while to recover from. Like, a LONG time. It's been over a year now, and it's my own shit, so I am being very cautious.
I am scared to get back into MGC? That is a sign of nasty nasty trauma, and complete lack of confidence. I mean, come on! MGC?!?! You can't get wimpier than that! *sighs* But I am following my "plan", which is to get back the confidence.
And I am bloody nervous about what the heck is going on with Putin, Iran and the rest of OPEC on the CL front. It feels like something is gonna' pop hard come Sep 24th. Frak frak frak. Am I a fool, or being simply foolish? I REALLY want to trade the CL live, but ack! WTF is gonna' happen with OPEC at end of this month?
I am trying to assuage myself with music in the meanwhile.
One of the things I've noticed in forward testing on live data is that not only does it take forever, but as you sit there staring at your charts day after day after week in sim testing your trading plan, is that you keep coming up with new ideas, because especially on slow trading days, there's nothing to do but wait...and think.
So I had an epiphany that might work, at least for me. It's a radical new approach to trade and risk management when trading with a mid-cap account of 75K. This whole scaling-in thing I was trying is not working outright, but I keep seeing some promise with intra-commodity offsets. I just need to flesh it out, and the best instrument I can see doing this with is going to be CL. This is also a good time to try this with CL because I need volatility to test the idea, and CL is due to have that increased volatility as we're now facing the upcoming Algiers conference and the formal OPEC meeting in November.
It will involve a combination of overnight and day-trading, using single-contract positions.
It will be done in sim. While I said previously that I would no longer post sim stuff, this one should produce startling results, if I am correct. They will be positive or negative results, but startling nonetheless! No money-back guarantee on this one, lol!
I hope to have some reportable results by beginning of October, and be done with final testing and analysis by late January at latest.