This journal will document an attempt at trading the open in the ES. I will begin with just observing, then move to sim, then hopefully trade it with a real account.
The basic approach is borrowing heavily from a Jigsaw trading video in which overnight HVNs are used as points of rejection.
day #1: 2037.75 open HVN 2039.25-2040.50 -- 9:31 hit 2040.00 and then came down 3.25; 9:37 hit 2040.75 and came down 2.75.
HVN 2037.00-2037.50 -- 9:33 hit 2036.25 and then up 4.50; 9:43 hit 2037.50 and up 6.00 and still muddling about in between.
Of course, where I'd be able to enter is questionable, but so far the theory looks good in hindsight. I'm guessing I would have entered somewhere below the 2040 hit, but not been able to reverse... when it went beyond the lower HVN and rejection wasn't as obvious.
Last edited by gumdr0p; April 12th, 2016 at 10:34 AM.
open: 65.75 HVN: 66.25-66.50 (±2 ticks) -- It popped up and then came down. Being anxious I might have shorted around 65.50 thinking it was rejected in the first minute. That would have been bad as it only went 2 ticks below that and then came back up to 68.00. A better entry (hindsight, I know) would have been to then take it long after it came back down from the 68.00. 9:34 it comes down to 66.25 (right to the HVN) and then goes up to 69.75. 9:43 it comes down to 66.75 (1 tick above the HVN) and goes up to 70.50. I don't know how well I would have spotted the rejections, as I was distracted by other market things.
open: 76.50 HVN: 75.00-75.50 or wider at 74.50-75.50 -- this would have been a rough one. It bounced off of 75.50 and I might have entered around 76.00. That would have failed (only went up two ticks) as it went down 2.25. A better entry would have been 74.50, but even that would have been difficult as it hovered in the HVN, although theoretically it would have gained a 1pt target after 12 minutes (possibly sooner, as it touched it a few times) before heading downward.
In general, though, I'm not sure I would have played this one as I was anticipating a pullback with the market having two up days in a row and moving up even further overnight.
Last edited by gumdr0p; April 14th, 2016 at 10:14 AM.
open: 76.00 HVN: 72.25-74.00
9:36 touches HVN at 74.00... I had a difficult time spotting rejection, but could have squeezed a point out of the 2 pt move.
9:39-> Comes down a few more times (as low as 73.75), would have probably scratched as it moved up only a little and came back down. By the time it got another decent 1.75 move off the HVN (later than I'm planning to enter... around 9:50) I would have scratched and/or taken 1-2 tick losses as it just seemed like it wasn't popping. Sometimes I can spot the rejection, but there just isn't any movement to the upside. It just did it again at 9:55.