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Muttoez Trading Journal
Started:April 1st, 2016 (08:47 PM) by muttoez Views / Replies:8,574 / 286
Last Reply:December 4th, 2016 (03:17 AM) Attachments:5

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Muttoez Trading Journal

Old April 1st, 2016, 08:47 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Muttoez Trading Journal

Firstly, let’s start with an analysis of my open positions carried into April.

ZL – Soybean Oil

I currently have 2 open positions in Soybean Oil.

Position 1 - This trade has been open since Mid-Feb

Trade: Long 2 contracts of May Soybean Oil
Entry Price: $0.3195
Risk: original stop placed at $0.3063 risking $1,500
Target: Initial Target - $0.3670, Longer Term Target - $0.4270

Reasons for entering the trade:

Technical Factors: 2 technical setups in close proximity provided the catalyst for entering this trade. The price moved up through the 200 SMA after a long downtrend (3rd attempt) and also surpassed the 61.8% retracement of the recent range.

Fundamental Factors: surging Palm Oil prices are providing strong support to Soybean Oil prices.

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Position 2 – This trade was opened on 31 Mar

Trade: Long 1 contract of July Soybean Oil
Entry Price: $0.3451
Risk: stop placed at 0.3265 risking $1,100
Target: Initial Target $0.3640, Longer Term Target - $0.43

I had been looking for a good setup to add to the position. One of the things I am currently experimenting with is pyramiding positions which are doing well. When I attempt to pyramid a position it is treated as a separate position with its own risk and reward parameters.

Reasons for entering the trade:

Technical Factors: The break through the 161.8% extension of the recent range looked like a good opportunity to add to the position. I decided on the July contract rather than the May contract to save having to roll the contract soon.

Fundamental Factors: The rise in Palm Oil prices continues to support Soybean Oil prices.

Trade Comments: I messed up my order entry and only entered a Buy Stop for 1 contract instead of 2. There was also a bit of slippage on the entry with my Buy Stop at $0.3443 being filled at $0.3451.

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SB – Sugar

I currently have 1 open position in Sugar.

The position was opened on 24 Feb

Trade: Long 1 contract of May Sugar
Entry Price: $1.397
Risk: original stop placed at $1.328 risking $800
Target: $1.785

Reasons for entering the trade:

I was Short Sugar and got caught in the strong move up on 22 Feb (costing me badly). Instincts told me there was something to the move and I decided to reverse my Short position (taking the loss) and go Long.

Technical Factors: The price moved up through the 200 SMA after a long downtrend (2nd attempt).

Fundamental Factors: A supply deficit is predicted in Sugar.

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QO – Mini Gold

I currently have 1 open position in Mini Gold.

The position was opened on 31 March

Trade: Long 1 contract of Jun Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,230
Risk: stop placed at $1,207 risking $1,150
Target: $1,600

Reasons for entering the trade:

I missed the original Long entry when Gold broke through the 200 SMA after a long downtrend. The move after the break was so rapid I decided not to chase the trade and to wait for another setup to enter a Long position.

Technical Factors: The first intersection with the 40 SMA since the break through the 200 SMA.

Fundamental Factors: Global monetary policy appears to be driving the Gold market higher.

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DX – US Dollar Index

I currently have 1 open position in the US Dollar Index.

The position was opened on 31 March

Trade: Short 1 contract of the US Dollar Index
Entry Price: 94.315
Risk: stop placed at 95.90 risking $1,600
Target: Initial Target 93.50, Longer Term Target - 88

Reasons for entering the trade:

Technical Factors: Moving Averages are stacked in a bearish pattern. The price has broken down through the 61.8% retracement of the recent range.

Fundamental Factors: Uncertainty on the timing of rate rises appears to be driving the US Dollar.

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Next post will look at the opportunities I am currently monitoring.


Last edited by muttoez; April 2nd, 2016 at 06:14 AM.
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Old April 1st, 2016, 08:47 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Old April 2nd, 2016, 12:22 AM   #3 (permalink)
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I am currently watching 2 potential opportunities.

KC Coffee

Coffee recently moved up through its 200 SMA after a long downtrend. I took a Long trade on the first break of the 200 SMA and the position was profitable from the beginning.

I am currently experimenting with bringing my Stop up to break even once a position is profitable by more than $2,000. A review of my prior trading history has shown me that a number of my losing trades were initially profitable before they turned out to be wrong. In each case if I had moved my Stop up to break even I would not have missed any good trades but I would have avoided losing money when eventually being stopped out at my initial Stop. The risk with this approach is that a position will not breach my initial Stop point and will then reverse in the direction I had predicted missing a winning trade.

I exited my initial position in Coffee when the price moved back through my initial entry point.

Coffee has still not breached my initial Stop point so the trade may still turn out to be a good trade. I will continue to watch the price action and look to re-enter on any strength.

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GF Feeder Cattle

I have been trading Feeder Cattle from the Short side since the price broke $2.10 back in the November 15 contract. I continued to roll the position through to the March contract but exited during the recent run up. I would have liked to have stayed with the position and rode out the run but I couldn’t handle the draw down involved with sticking to the position to the point where I would accept the trend has turned and I should no longer be Short.

I have continued to monitor the price action with a view to re-entering my Short position. Prices have broken down this week but paused at the 61.8% retracement of the recent range. If prices can breach this level by more than 1% I will look to enter a new Short position.

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Last edited by muttoez; April 2nd, 2016 at 04:01 AM.
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Old April 2nd, 2016, 01:28 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Review of April 1 Trading Action

No new trades were entered during the trading day.

Here are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.

Finished the day at a small loss with gains in Soybean Oil positions outweighed by losses in the Sugar, Gold and US Dollar Index positions.

ZL – Soybean Oil

Trade: Long 2 contracts of May Soybean Oil
Entry Price: $0.3195
Risk: stop moved to $0.3278 risking $0
Target: Initial Target - $0.3670, Longer Term Target - $0.4270

Trade Comments: This trade continues to perform strongly moving towards the initial target. The price broke through the 161.8% extension of the recent range by more than 1% during the session signalling the trade looks like it has further to run. The break of the extension allows me to move my stop up to the recent low at $0.3283 which sits just below this extension zone and allows me to lock in a large amount of the profit earned on the trade so far.

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Trade: Long 1 contract of July Soybean Oil
Entry Price: $0.3451
Risk: stop placed at 0.3365 risking $500
Target: Initial Target $0.3640, Longer Term Target - $0.43

Trade Comments: The strong move to the upside on the back of a supportive USDA prospective plantings and quarterly stocks report yesterday has me kicking myself that I messed up my order entry and only took half my desired position. Only time will tell how costly an error this will be. Other than that the trade looks like it’s moving toward the initial target.

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SB – Sugar

Trade: Long 1 contract of May Sugar
Entry Price: $1.397
Risk: stop moved to $1.483 risking $0
Target: $1.785

Trade Comments: The recent run up stalled at the 61.8% retracement of the contract high and low and the price has reversed strongly. Prior to the start of the session I moved my stop up towards the previous resistance / now support line at about $1.50 due to the recent sell off. Price tested this support level during the session and bounced from it causing the candle to finish with a lower shadow. I am looking for the uptrend to resume at some point in the near future and if it does I will be looking to pyramid the position.

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QO – Mini Gold

Trade: Long 1 contract of Jun Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,230
Risk: stop placed at $1,207 risking $1,150
Target: $1,600

Trade Comments: The price fell sharply after the strong US employment report but my stop was not tested. Gold finished off the lows of the day resulting in a candle with a lower shadow. This provides some comfort that the uptrend may resume. It’s a wait and see at this point.

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DX – US Dollar Index

Trade: Short 1 contract of the US Dollar Index
Entry Price: 94.315
Risk: stop placed at 95.90 risking $1,600
Target: Initial Target 93.50, Longer Term Target - 88

Trade Comments: The US Dollar Index rose sharply after the strong US employment report but my stop was not tested. In fact, the price did not even touch the 61.8% retracement mark used as the basis for entering the trade. The US Dollar Index finished the day off the highs resulting in a doji candle with a long upper shadow. The trade still shows promise at this stage.

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Last edited by muttoez; April 2nd, 2016 at 08:54 PM.
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Old April 2nd, 2016, 01:40 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Review of April 1 Trading Action

Futures Edge on FIO
Here are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.

KC Coffee

Comments: Coffee put in another new low today but finished off the lows resulting in a candle with a lower shadow. The price also closed above the 200 SMA leaving hope that the uptrend may resume.

Coffee has still not breached my initial Stop point and I will continue to watch the price action and look to re-enter on any strength.

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GF Feeder Cattle

Comments: Prices were lower today but have still not breached the 61.8% retracement of the recent range.

If prices can breach this level by more than 1% I am still looking to enter a new Short position.

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Last edited by muttoez; April 2nd, 2016 at 04:21 AM.
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Old April 4th, 2016, 07:46 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Review of April 4 Trading Action

A fairly quiet day’s trading with small ranges on most of my open positions apart from Sugar.

I exited my long position in Sugar at the opening of the session.

Finished the day with a small gain with gains in Soybean Oil and the US Dollar Index reduced by losses in Gold and Sugar.

Here are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.

ZL – Soybean Oil

Trade: Long 2 contracts of May Soybean Oil
Entry Price: $0.3195
Risk: stop moved to $0.3278 risking $0
Target: Initial Target - $0.3670, Longer Term Target - $0.4270

Daily Comment: This trade continues to grind higher moving towards the initial target.

Trade: Long 1 contract of July Soybean Oil
Entry Price: $0.3451
Risk: stop placed at 0.3365 risking $500
Target: Initial Target $0.3640, Longer Term Target - $0.43

Daily Comment: Almost got the other half of position in the overnight session with the low at $0.3457 very close to my limit order at $0.3451. The price continues to grind higher moving closer to the June 15 highs.

SB – Sugar

Trade: Long 1 contract of May Sugar
Entry Price: $1.397
Risk: stop moved to $1.483 risking $0
Target: $1.785
Exit Price: $1.483
Trade Grade: 3.5 / 5

Daily Comment: the price gapped lower on the open activating my profit protection Stop and continued to move lower throughout the session finishing at the 40 SMA.

Trade Review: The 61.8% retracement of the contract high and low was always likely to act as some form of resistance. Exiting on the approach to this level was probably a better exit point. I could have re-entered the trade if the price broke through this level and if the price reversed (as it did in this case) I would have locked in a higher profit and not been caught in the retreat.

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QO – Mini Gold

Trade: Long 1 contract of Jun Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,230
Risk: stop placed at $1,207 risking $1,150
Target: $1,600

Daily Comment: Finished slightly lower for the session. The trade still looks like it could go either way at this point.

DX – US Dollar Index

Trade: Short 1 contract of the US Dollar Index
Entry Price: 94.315
Risk: stop placed at 95.90 risking $1,600
Target: Initial Target 93.50, Longer Term Target - 88

Daily Comment: Another doji candle today indicating uncertainty. The trade still looks like it could go either way at this point.


Last edited by muttoez; April 4th, 2016 at 08:27 PM.
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Old April 4th, 2016, 07:51 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Thanks: 12 given, 103 received

Review of April 4 Trading Action

After today’s action I have taken Coffee off the opportunities list. In its place I have added the 10 Year Note.

Here are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.

KC Coffee

Comments: Gapped lower on the open and continued to move lower throughout the session finishing near the 40 SMA.

Coffee has now breached my initial Stop point and my previous bullish views have shifted to neutral.

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GF Feeder Cattle

Comments: Prices were slightly lower again today but have still not breached the 61.8% retracement of the recent range.

If prices can breach this level by more than 1% I am still looking to enter a new Short position.

ZN 10 Year Note

The price is coming up to the 61.8% retracement of the recent range. This level may prove to be resistance and presents a low risk Short opportunity at about 130 27/32.

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Old April 5th, 2016, 08:04 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Review of April 5 Trading Action

I entered a new Short position in the US 10 Year Note during the day and added to my Long position in July Soybean Oil.

Many of my positions (apart from Soybean Oil) posted strong gains during the session but most of these gains were reversed by the end of session with Gold the only trade able to hang onto its gains. Finished the day with a loss with gains in Gold outweighed by losses in Soybean Oil.

Here are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.

ZL – Soybean Oil

Trade: Long 2 contracts of May Soybean Oil
Entry Price: $0.3195
Risk: stop moved to $0.3278 risking $0
Target: Initial Target - $0.3670, Longer Term Target - $0.4270

Daily Comment: Falls in Palm Oil prices on the back of a higher than expected ending stocks survey spilled over to Soybean Oil prices with falls close to 2% on decent volume. A correction was probably overdue after the strong run up but the bearish engulfing candle created does cause some concern. I will need to monitor tomorrow’s price action closely for any follow through selling. With only a couple of weeks left in this contract it may be a good idea to lock in the profits.

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Trade: Long 2 contracts of July Soybean Oil

Entry Price: $0.3451
Risk: stop placed at 0.3365 risking $1,000
Target: Initial Target $0.3640, Longer Term Target - $0.43

Daily Comment: My limit order was filled during the session and I now have my full position. Falls in Palm Oil prices on the back of a higher than expected ending stocks survey spilled over to Soybean Oil prices with falls close to 2% on decent volume. A correction was probably overdue after the strong run up but the bearish engulfing candle created does cause some concern.

Price is still above the 161.8% extension level and I have no reason to exit the trade at this stage. I am happy to continue to hold until next week when a number of significant fundamental reports will be released that should provide evidence on the next price movements.

In the past I would have been inclined to chase the price when I missed an opportunity only to see the market then provide another opportunity to enter at the original price. It is difficult to have the patience to wait for the next opportunity. I am glad I waited for the price to pull back to fill the rest of my position. Only time will tell whether the trade turns into a winner. Until then I will rely on my Stop to manage the risk.

QO – Mini Gold

Trade: Long 1 contract of Jun Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,230
Risk: stop placed at $1,207 risking $1,150
Target: $1,600

Daily Comment: Gold rose strongly after comments from the IMF about slower global growth. The rally paused at the 40 SMA and retreated leaving a candle with an upper shadow. The 40 SMA will need to be surpassed for the uptrend to continue.

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DX – US Dollar Index

Trade: Short 1 contract of the US Dollar Index
Entry Price: 94.315
Risk: stop placed at 95.90 risking $1,600
Target: Initial Target 93.50, Longer Term Target - 88

Daily Comment: the US Dollar rose after comments from the IMF about slower global growth but finished the day off the highs creating another doji candle. Any attempts to rally are being sold at present but the price has not been able to make new lows. The trade could still go either way at this stage.

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ZN 10 Year Note

Trade: Short 2 contracts of the US 10 Year Note
Entry Price: 130 27/32
Risk: stop placed at 131 17/32 risking $1,375
Target: Initial Target 127, Longer Term Target – 116

Reasons for entering the trade:

Not one of the specific trade setups I usually trade. It is a variation on one of the setups.

Technical Factors: The 61.8% retracement of the recent range is likely to prove to be resistance and presents a low risk Short opportunity.

Fundamental Factors: The Fed has begun to lift rates causing yields to rise and the 10 Year note to fall. The timing of rate rises, the number of rises and the pace of the rises is still uncertain and may affect the overall trend. The fundamentals will need to be monitored closely on this trade.

Daily Comment: My order was hit in the overnight session when prices rose after comments from the IMF about slower global growth. The price then retreated during the session but rallied into the close. Price was unable to surpass the 61.8% retracement mark and looks to be acted as resistance at this point.

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Last edited by muttoez; April 6th, 2016 at 01:33 AM.
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Old April 5th, 2016, 08:05 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Review of April 5 Trading Action

Here are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.

GF Feeder Cattle

Comments: Prices were lower again today retesting the 61.8% retracement of the recent range.

If prices can breach this level by more than 1% I am still looking to enter a new Short position.

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No other new opportunities at this stage.

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Old April 6th, 2016, 08:24 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Review of April 6 Trading Action


No new positions were entered during the session.

An up and down day today. My open positions were taking a beating during the overnight session with Soybean Oil, Gold and the US Dollar all posting decent losses. They all came back during the day session erasing the losses and then posting strong gains. Most of the positions finished off their high or lows for the day but I still finished the day with a gain overall. Gold was the only position to post a loss for the day with all other positions posting gains.

Here are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.

ZL – Soybean Oil

Trade: Long 2 contracts of May Soybean Oil
Entry Price: $0.3195
Risk: stop moved to $0.3339 risking $0
Target: Initial Target - $0.3670, Longer Term Target - $0.4270

Daily Comment: I moved my Stop up to $0.3339 at the start of the day session to protect more of my profit due to the bearish engulfing candle yesterday.

Soybean Oil was down again during the overnight session before bouncing off the 15 SMA. The price finished off the day’s highs creating a spinning top candle with both an upper and lower shadow. There is no evidence that the uptrend has ceased at this stage.

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Trade: Long 2 contracts of July Soybean Oil
Entry Price: $0.3451
Risk: stop placed at 0.3365 risking $1,000
Target: Initial Target $0.3640, Longer Term Target - $0.43

Daily Comment: Soybean Oil was down again during the overnight session before bouncing off the 15 SMA. The price finished off the day’s highs creating a spinning top candle with both an upper and lower shadow. There is no evidence that the uptrend has ceased at this stage.

QO – Mini Gold

Trade: Long 1 contract of Jun Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,230
Risk: stop placed at $1,207 risking $1,150
Target: $1,600

Daily Comment: Gold moved down during the overnight session but finished off the day’s lows posting a candle with a lower shadow. Gold continues to find support around the 1,220 level but the trade could still go either way at this point.

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DX – US Dollar Index

Trade: Short 1 contract of the US Dollar Index
Entry Price: 94.315
Risk: stop placed at 95.60 risking $1,160
Target: Initial Target 93.50, Longer Term Target - 88

Daily Comment: I was always a little uncomfortable with the amount of risk taken on this trade. I therefore moved my Stop down to 95.60 at the start of the day session using the midpoint of the March 29 candle and the 20 SMA to reduce my risk. I will probably continue to move my Stop down following the 20 SMA as the next direction in the US Dollar is still uncertain.

The US Dollar rose again during the overnight session but then fell back during the day after the minutes from the Fed meeting indicated that rate hikes are likely to be slow. The US Dollar posted new lows today but finished off the lows posting another doji candle.

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ZN 10 Year Note

Trade: Short 2 contracts of the US 10 Year Note
Entry Price: 130 27/32
Risk: stop placed at 131 17/32 risking $1,375
Target: Initial Target 127, Longer Term Target – 116

Daily Comment: the Notes retreated from the 61.8% retracement mark during the session but finished off their lows posting a candle with a lower shadow. The 61.8% retracement mark still looks to be acting as resistance at this point. With the minutes from the Fed meeting indicating that rate hikes are likely to be slow I am surprised that the Notes could not stage more of a rally today lending credence to my Short bias.

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