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I've traded NG plenty of times. Just doesn't offer me any setups at present.
I would be interested in a break above the 200 SMA at 3.56 on the long side but don't see enough risk reward on the downside. While beneath the 61.8% retracement of the recent range the target may be 2.21.
Trade: Short 1 contract of June New Zealand Dollar
Entry Price: 70.30
Stop: 70.30 risking $0
Target: 65.22
Weekly Comment: The Kiwi fell sharply this week trading down through the 61.8% retracement of the recent range and finishing the week back near the recent lows. With the move lower this week and the 50 SMA now below my entry level I will move my stop to break even on Monday.
CT – Cotton
Trade: Long 1 contract of July Cotton
Entry Price: 0.7618
Stop: 0.7473 risking $725
Target: 0.8465
Weekly Comment: Cotton traded lower most days this week but found support each time finishing the week slightly lower but remaining above the 61.8% retracement level.
6B – British Pound
Trade: Long 2 contracts of June Micro British Pound Average Entry Price: 1.2836
Stop: 1.2497 risking $423.75
Target: 1.52
Weekly Comment: The Cable continued higher this week closing at a new high for the move. There has been no corrective price action yet to allow me to add to this position.
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
ZM – Soybean Meal
Soybean Meal traded back above the 200 SMA on Monday but quickly failed this level. Prices remain within in the range between the 200 SMA and the 61.8% retracement of the recent range. If prices break the 61.8% retracement level I may look at re-entering a short position.
GF – Feeder Cattle
Feeder Cattle was sharply higher this week with a couple of limit moves in a row. It’s a shame I wasn’t able to get set in this market but that’s how it goes sometimes.
SB – Sugar
Sugar traded lower on Wednesday making a new low for the move but rallied strongly from the 161.8% extension on Friday to finish the week only slightly lower.
HG – Copper
Copper moved higher this week but still remains below the falling 50 SMA. I am looking for a move back to the 200 SMA to re-enter a long position.
6M – Mexican Peso
The Peso was lower early in the week but found support at the 50 SMA and rallied back up to the 61.8% retracement of the recent corrective range to finish the week. If prices can surpass this level I may look at taking a long position.
6E – Euro
The Euro gapped higher on Monday after the French election but was unable to surpass the 200 SMA. If prices can break this level I may look at taking a long position.
Below is my updated tracking sheet for April with the key metrics I am currently following.
Another fairly quiet month of trading. I’m still in a drawdown but I have a couple of trades moving in the right direction now.
I have been working on another version of my tracking sheet for a few months and I finally had the time to finish it off this weekend. This version groups my trades together into what I consider to be each trade whereas the previous sheet is based on each trade execution. This version takes into account things such as scaling in and scaling out, rolling positions across multiple contracts, etc. I believe this is more accurate representation of my trading results. This tracking sheet also calculates return on capital based on closed trades only and doesn’t take into account open profits like the previous tracking sheet does.
I’ll continue to use both sheets for the next couple of months but will probably move to the new sheet permanently in the future.
Trade: Short 1 contract of June New Zealand Dollar
Entry Price: 70.30
Stop: 70.30 risking $0
Target: 65.22
Weekly Comment: The Kiwi traded higher early in the week before falling sharply on Wednesday and trading back down to the recent lows on Thursday. Prices found support at again at these levels rallying on Friday to finish the week higher.
CT – Cotton
Trade: Long 1 contract of July Cotton
Entry Price: 0.7618
Stop: 0.7473 risking $725
Target: 0.8465
Weekly Comment: Cotton traded in a tight range for most of the week before breaking lower on Friday and posting a bearish full bodied candle to finish the week.
6B – British Pound
Trade: Long 2 contracts of June Micro British Pound Average Entry Price: 1.2836
Stop: 1.2497 risking $423.75
Target: 1.52
Weekly Comment: The Cable drifted lower for most of the week before rallying off the lows on Thursday and continuing higher on Friday to post a new high close for the move.
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
ZM – Soybean Meal
Soybean Meal traded back above the 200 SMA on Monday and attempted to rally several times this week but was unable to surpass the 50 SMA each time.
GF – Feeder Cattle
Feeder Cattle continued its move higher early in the week reaching the 423.6% extension before failing from this level and falling on Thursday and Friday to finish the week only slightly higher.
HG – Copper
After rallying strongly on Monday Copper turned lower this week falling sharply lower on Wednesday and making new lows on Thursday but prices didn’t quite make it low enough to intersect with the 200 SMA this week.
6M – Mexican Peso
The Peso failed the 61.8% retracement level this week but found support again at the 50 SMA on Friday.
6E – Euro
The Euro rallied sharply on Thursday surpassing the 200 SMA with impulsiveness and looks like it may have staged a bullish break. I am reluctant to be long both the Pound and the Euro and I prefer the chart construction in the Pound over the Euro so I won’t be looking at this trade.
SI - Silver
Silver was lower this week trading down through both the 61.8% retracement of the recent range and the 61.8% retracement of the entire recent uptrend. Any rally back towards these levels may offer a good short opportunity.
LE – Lean Hogs
Hogs were higher this week trading above the 61.8% retracement of the recent range after surpassing the 200 SMA last week. Prices have not yet broken the 61.8% retracement level but if this level can be surpassed I may look at entering a long position.
ZW – Wheat
Wheat gapped higher and rallied sharply on Monday on concerns of crop losses closing just above the 200 SMA. I was tempted to take a long position on the follow through buying during the overnight session but with the majority of Monday’s candle below the 200 SMA and the 61.8% retracement of the recent range just above the price a trade signal had not yet been triggered for me. The price action that followed shows why it’s not a good idea to rush into a trade before the signal is generated even where the preceding price action suggests a strong move will follow. Sticking to my trading plan ensured I avoided a losing trade in the case.
Crude Oil was sharply lower this week making new lows but reversed strongly from the lows on Friday to finish the day higher.
GC – Gold
Gold failed the 200 SMA trading down to the 100 SMA. The 61.8% retracement of the recent trend and the entire uptrend both sit together just below the current price at 1,190.
DX – US Dollar Index
The US Dollar traded down through the 200 SMA this week but is still holding onto this level.
ES – S&P 500
The S&P 500 traded in a tight sideways range until Friday when it rallied strong to make new all time highs
ZN – 10 Year Note
The Notes were lower this week with a more hawkish tone in the minutes from the Fed meeting causing prices to fall sharply on Wednesday and Thursday.
- Exited my long position in Cotton
- Added to my long position in the British Pound
Below are my comments on my open positions.
6N – New Zealand Dollar
Trade: Short 1 contract of June New Zealand Dollar
Entry Price: 70.30
Stop: 70.30 risking $0
Target: 65.22
Weekly Comment: The Kiwi gapped lower on Thursday after a more dovish report than expected from the reserve bank and made a new low for the move but recovered to finish the day unchanged. Prices initially traded lower on Friday before recovering to finish the day higher and it looks like the gap will be filled next week.
CT – Cotton
Trade: Long 1 contract of July Cotton
Entry Price: 0.7618
Exit Price: 0.7619
Trade Comment: This trade is a perfect example of the trade offs a trader constantly has to make. Firstly on the entry, my trade set up calls for taking action as price approaches the 200 SMA but does allow you to wait for confirmation. I choose to wait for confirmation in this case as the slope of the 200 SMA was not ideal and when prices bounced strongly from the 200 SMA I took action to enter. The trade off in this case is a worse entry price but a higher probability that the trade will be a winner. Then on the exit, as prices retraced back towards my original entry point I had a choice to exit at break even to protect capital or continue to give the trade room as the trade idea was not wrong until price trades below the 200 SMA. I choose to protect capital as the 200 SMA was already flattening and price had just reacted negatively to a fundamental report. The trade off here is that you prevent a loss but give up the chance to profit if the price does turn around in the expected direction of the trade. Making the opposite decision on either of these occasions would have kept me in the trade to catch the move that followed after my exit. Despite the result that was achieved (or missed) as a result of these decisions I still stand by them in the context of the information available at the time the decision was made and would do the same thing again in similar circumstances.
Weekly Comment: Cotton continued lower at the start of the week breaking the 100 SMA on Wednesday after a bearish supply and demand report. Prices continued lower in the overnight session but had recovered by the start of the day session. I entered a stop order just below the overnight low to protect the trade moving below my break even price and was just taken out of the trade with price moving 2 ticks past my stop level before turning and launching higher after strong export sales. The upside price action continued on Friday moving limit up and closing at a new high for the move. I’m not willing to chase this trade higher.
6B – British Pound
Trade: Long 3 contracts of June Micro British Pound Average Entry Price: 1.2847
Stop: 1.2497 risking $656.25
Target: 1.52
Weekly Comment: The Cable was lower on Thursday after comments from the BoE trading back down to the 20 SMA. I added another contract at the 20 SMA and will look to add to the position further if prices continue lower to the 50 SMA.
