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- Entered and was stopped out of a Long position in Mini Gold
Strong gains this week led by surging Sugar prices late in the week.
I’ll start the weekly update with comments on my open positions at the end of the week.
SB – Sugar
Sugar surged higher on Thursday and Friday exceeding the initial target which now becomes the level used for Stop placement. I will continue to hold Sugar as I see a bigger target at the 61.8% retracement of the 2011 high and 2015 low at 26 cents being possible.
QM – Mini Crude Oil
Oil continued to trade within the small range between $48 and $50 again this week. Prices touched the psychological $50 per barrel mark again during the week but closed the week lower just below the 15 SMA.
Next up I’ll have a look at the other markets that I have traded or been watching during the week.
GC – Gold
Gold surged higher on Friday on the back of the weak employment data to close back at the falling 15 SMA. Prices will need to surpass the moving averages and the 61.8% retracement of the range at $1,263 to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
ZC – New Crop Corn
Corn continued to rally this week and closed the week above the 61.8% retracement of the major range. If this break is credible an implied target towards $5 may be possible.
CT – December Cotton
Cotton was weak for most of the week retracing most of last Friday’s gains but surged higher on Friday to undo most of the damage and finish the week practically unchanged.
ZW – New Crop Wheat
Wheat reversed strongly on Tuesday but did not follow through and quickly turned back up to rally for the rest of the week. Prices exceeded the 200 SMA and the 61.8% retracement of the recent range on Friday and looks as though it has staged a bullish break.
Hogs broke out sharply on Wednesday surpassing the 61.8% retracement of the recent range. Prices followed through on Thursday and Friday and also broke out of the 6 month triangle pattern. I didn’t see this break until the close of trade on Thursday and by this stage it was too late to get on board.
KC – Coffee
Coffee was sharply higher on Friday and closed back above the 200 SMA. Will it be third time lucky for the break out in Coffee?
DX – US Dollar Index
The US Dollar continued sideways early in the week continuing to struggle to exceed the 61.8% retracement of the major recent range. Prices broke sharply lower on Friday after the weak jobs data closing back below the 40 SMA.
6E - Euro
The Euro has been retesting the 200 SMA recently but broke sharply higher on Friday closing back above the 61.8% retracement of the recent range and the 40 SMA. Further evidence is required before confirming a bullish break has been staged.
ZN - 10 Year Note
The Notes continued sideways for most of the week before breaking sharply higher on Friday after the employment numbers to close above the 61.8% retracement of the recent range. If the April high at 131 6/32 can be surpassed the target may be 135 13/32.
ESTX50 – Euro Stoxx50
The index didn’t quite get to the 200 SMA before reversing this week. Prices finished the week back at the 40 SMA.
Here are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.
SB – Sugar
Trade: Long 2 contracts of July Sugar
Entry Price: 16.05
Risk: 17.93 risking $0
Target: 18.42
Daily Comment: Sugar continued higher in the overnight session but gave up all the gains to finish the day flat. This action suggests a possible short term top has been made but confirmation is still required.
QM – Mini Crude Oil
Trade: Short 1 contract of July Mini Crude Oil
Entry Price: $48.225
Risk: $50.60 risking $1,187.50
Target: $38.32
Daily Comment: Oil was higher today pushing back up towards the $50 per barrel level and closing above the 618% retracement mark.
I exited my Sugar trade for a profit and entered a Long trade in Coffee today.
Further losses today in Oil and Sugar.
Here are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.
SB – Sugar
Trade: Long 2 contracts of July Sugar
Entry Price: 16.05
Exit Price: 18.37
Trade Grade: 4/5
Daily Comment: I advanced my Stop further before the start of the session because of the potential reversal candle yesterday and the Stop was triggered when prices moved lower during the overnight session. Unfortunately prices recovered during the day session to close at new highs for the move.
Trade Comment: A great trade with all rules followed. Unfortunate to get stopped out and then see prices recover but it was getting close to the time to roll so it made sense to start protecting profits more aggressively. I will look to re-enter the position in the next contract.
QM – Mini Crude Oil
Trade: Short 1 contract of July Mini Crude Oil
Entry Price: $48.225
Risk: $50.60 risking $1,187.50
Target: $38.32
Daily Comment: Oil continued higher today and closed above the $50 level. My Stop wasn’t triggered today but it looks as though this trade is about to come to an end.
KC – Coffee
Trade: Long 1 contract of September Coffee
Entry Price: $1.336
Risk: $1.312 risking $900
Target: $1.97
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices surpassed the 200 SMA (3rd attempt) and the 61.8% retracement of the recent range with two bullish full bodied candles.
Fundamental: Weather is causing harvest issues in Brazil as well as suspected quality issues with the new crop.
Daily Comment: I entered Coffee at the market on the open and prices quickly traded lower coming within a whisker of my Stop. Prices recovered during the day session to finish the day slightly higher.
Here are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
GC – Gold
Gold was lower today but finished off the lows posting a candle with a lower shadow. Prices are struggling to surpass the short term moving averages at this stage.
I have removed the grain markets from my watch list as they have al moved too far for potential entries now.
Further losses in Oil today were more than offset by gains in Coffee.
Here are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.
QM – Mini Crude Oil
Trade: Short 1 contract of July Mini Crude Oil
Entry Price: $48.225
Exit Price: $50.625
Trade Grade: 2.5/5
Daily Comment: Oil continued higher today and consolidated the break above $50 posting a bullish full bodied candle.
Trade Comment: No major issues with this trade. I started to have doubts about the trade late last week and I almost closed out the trade at the close last Friday. I should always follow my instincts in these situations.
KC – Coffee
Trade: Long 1 contract of September Coffee
Entry Price: $1.336
Risk: $1.312 risking $900
Target: $1.97
Daily Comment: Talk of frost in Brazil’s coffee growing regions sent Coffee prices soaring today rising by more than 5% on strong volume posting a bullish full bodied candle and closing above the March highs
Here are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
GC – Gold
Gold was higher today posting a bullish full bodied candle and closing above all the moving averages at the 61.8% retracement level.
SB – Sugar
I put a buy order at the start of the session below yesterday’s close to try and get back in this trade. My order was never triggered with Sugar only moving higher today posting a bullish full bodied candle and making a new high for the move.
