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A small loss today with gains in Gold offset by losses in Sugar.
Here are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.
QO – Mini Gold
Trade: Long 1 contract of Jun Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,230
Risk: stop moved to $1,242.50 risking $0
Target: $1,600
Daily Comment: Gold bounced off the 20 SMA to finish higher and close back above the 15 SMA.
SB – Sugar
Trade: Long 4 contracts of July Sugar Average Entry Price: 16.35
Average Risk: 16.26 risking $400
Target: 18.42
Daily Comment: I moved my Stop to break even before the start of the session after the break of the 61.8% retracement of the contract high and low yesterday. Sugar prices fell sharply on the open in the overnight session and quickly recovered. I used the quick recovery to pyramid my position with a tight stop. The pyramided position is treated as a separate position with its own risk parameters and the stop on my original position has not changed. Prices closed back above the 61.8% retracement of the contract and high and low and posted a candle with a long lower shadow.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
As already said - great journal!
Just two short questions
1) Do you watch the development of your traded instruments always, periodically or only End of Day?
2) Are you using other indicators for your own purpose than the ones you show in your charts here?
Thanks.
GFIs1 - who assumes that price of sugar MUST come down now as I drink my coffee now without any...
joking
1. For all intents and purposes I'm an End of Day trader. My time zone isn't great for the US session so I'm rarely watching the screen during the night. I keep an eye on things when ever I can but the majority of my trading involves setting orders at the end of the day unless I see something that stands out (like the mini flash crash in Sugar on Friday).
2. I don't use any other indicators. The charts I post are exactly what I'm looking at when I trade. I do have a number of discretionary filters that I apply to each trade set up that I don't really go into detail about in my journal posts. I'm looking at ways to make these filters more of a mechanical process at the moment.
A solid profitable week this week driven by my Sugar position.
I’ll start the weekly update with comments on my open positions at the end of the week.
QO – Mini Gold
Gold fell sharply to start the week trading back down to the short term moving averages. These levels provided support and Gold grinded its way back up slowly for the rest of the week. Gold continues to consolidate and no damage has been done to the uptrend at this stage.
SB – Sugar
Another volatile week in Sugar. Prices bounced off the 40 SMA at the start of the week and then raced higher to surpass the 61.8% retracement of the contract high and low which has been acting as major resistance. A mini flash crash on Friday saw prices fall back sharply only to recover minutes later. Most importantly Sugar closed the week above the 61.8% retracement of the contract high and low.
Next up I’ll have a look at the other markets that I have been watching during the week.
CL – Crude Oil
Oil fell sharply to start the week but turned around quickly and traded back up to close above the 200 SMA for the first time since August 2014. There is still a potential area of resistance at the 61.8% retracement mark at $48.57. I remain neutral where Oil is concerned at this stage.
KC – Coffee
Coffee rallied strongly this week and closed back above the 200 SMA. I am looking for prices to surpass the 61.8% retracement mark at $1.31 before looking at entering a Log position.
Feeder Cattle gapped up on Monday trading back up to the 40 SMA and the 61.8% retracement mark of the recent range. This area acted as resistance with prices falling back for the rest of the week. Prices were sharply lower on Friday but recovered most of the fall to post a candle with a long lower shadow closing above the short term moving averages which have started to turn up. The evidence supporting the direction of Feeder Cattle prices is mixed at the moment and I remain neutral.
ZC – New Crop Corn
Corn rallied strongly after the supply and demand report closing back above the 200 SMA and surpassing the 61.8% retracement of the recent range on Friday. I am looking for a close above $4 to confirm the break.
ZS – New Crop Soybeans
Soybeans were sharply higher after the supply and demand report trading up to the 161.8% extension of the recent range. Prices have paused at this level and are likely to consolidate around this level while the moving averages catch up.
DX – US Dollar Index
The US Dollar continues to rally and traded up to the 40 SMA on Friday. This is probably the last level of resistance for the bulls and I continue to remain neutral at this stage.
ZN - 10 Year Note
The Notes traded sideways all week and continue to struggle at the 61.8% retracement of the recent range.
HE – Lean Hogs
Hogs rallied strongly on Wednesday and surpassed the 61.8% retracement of the recent range. There was no follow through buying on Thursday and prices crashed back down to the 61.8% retracement level on Friday.
I was stopped out of my additional Sugar position today.
A flat day today with gains in Gold and my original Sugar position offset by losses in my additional Sugar position.
Here are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.
QO – Mini Gold
Trade: Long 1 contract of Jun Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,230
Risk: stop moved to $1,242.50 risking $0
Target: $1,600
Daily Comment: Gold rallied during the overnight session to retest the March highs but fell back during the day session to finish the day unchanged and post a candle with a long upper shadow.
SB – Sugar
Trade: Long 2 contracts of July Sugar
Entry Price: 16.05
Risk: 16.05 risking $0
Target: 18.42
Daily Comment: Sugar gapped lower at the opening of the overnight session triggering my Stop on the pyramided position entered on Friday. Prices rallied during the day session to close higher and post a bullish candle. At this stage it looks like I got my Stop position wrong on the pyramided trade. It really should have been placed beneath Friday’s low.
Here are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
CL – Crude Oil
Oil rallied strongly today posting a bullish full bodied candle. Prices have moved closer to the 61.8% retracement mark of the recent range and it will be interesting to see what the price does around this level.
KC – Coffee
Coffee surpassed the 61.8% retracement of the recent range with impulsiveness today posting a bullish full bodied candle. I’m looking to enter a Long trade on any retrace as the closing price is outside my risk parameters for the trade.
ZC – New Crop Corn
Corn initially traded lower back down through the 61.8% retracement of the recent range but finished the session strongly to close higher. Prices briefly traded above $4 but could not close above this level.
A small gain today with small gains in Gold offset by small losses in Sugar.
Here are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.
QO – Mini Gold
Trade: Long 1 contract of Jun Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,230
Risk: stop moved to $1,242.50 risking $0
Target: $1,600
Daily Comment: Gold finished higher today and remains in the recent range.
SB – Sugar
Trade: Long 2 contracts of July Sugar
Entry Price: 16.05
Risk: 16.05 risking $0
Target: 18.42
Daily Comment: Sugar finished slightly lower but well off its lows posting another candle with a lower shadow. Prices traded below the 61.8% retracement mark of the contract high and low again today but closed back above this level.
