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Next up I’ll have a look at the other markets that I have traded or been watching during the week.
ZL – Soybean Oil
Soybean Oil surged higher on Monday and Tuesday after I had been stopped out of the trade. Prices surpassed the 61.8% retracement mark of the recent range with impulsiveness on Tuesday before reversed to finish the week back below this level. Given the volatility in Soybean Oil at the end of the week I am happy to be sitting on the sidelines in this market.
CL – Crude Oil
Oil gapped slower to start the week after bearish fundamental news but finished the day higher and continued to rally through the middle of week. Prices have paused around the previous high and appear to be consolidating. The price is still to reach the falling 200 SMA which is where I may look to enter a Short position.
SB – Sugar
Sugar continued higher to start the week surpassing the 61.8% retracement of the recent range. Sugar was subject to high volatility to end the week with prices trading in large ranges both above and below the 61.8% retracement level. Given the recent volatility I am not looking to trade Sugar at the moment.
KC – Coffee
Coffee tried to stage a bullish break with prices closing above the 200 SMA in Wednesday’s trade before falling sharply to end the week negating any bullish momentum. I will not conclude a bullish break has been staged until prices can surpass the 61.8% retracement of the recent range at $1.32
ZC – Corn & ZW - Wheat
Both Corn and Wheat attempted to stage a bullish break closing above the 200 SMA in Wednesday’s trade before falling sharply and closing the week well below the 200 SMA negating any bullish momentum.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Lastly, I’ll review some other markets that I’ve been watching recently.
DX – US Dollar Index
The US Dollar looked to confirm my suspicions that I exited the trade too early with prices falling back towards the recent lows to start the week before reversing in the middle of the week to finish slightly higher back towards the 61.8% retracement level. Prices are still below the 61.8% retracement mark and the 40 SMA so there is no evidence of a change in trend at this stage.
ZN - 10 Year Note
The 10 Year Note traded back up to the 61.8% retracement level to start the week. This level acted as resistance and the price fell from this level finishing the week much lower and closing below the now falling 40 SMA. It looks as though prices may trade back down to the previous lows at 128 or even further down to the 200 SMA.
HE – Lean Hogs
Hogs pushed back above the 200 SMA during the week but finished the week on a bearish note with a full bodied red candle which finished below the 200 SMA.
I was stopped out of my Soybean Meal position at the start of the overnight session.
Finished the day with a small loss with gains in Gold offset by losses in Feeder Cattle and Copper.
Here are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.
QO – Mini Gold
Trade: Long 1 contract of Jun Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,230
Risk: stop placed at $1,215.25 risking $737.50
Target: $1,600
Daily Comment: Gold was higher today trading back to the 40 SMA. Prices finished slightly off the lows posting a candle with an upper shadow.
GF - Feeder Cattle
Trade: Short 1 contract of May Feeder Cattle
Entry Price: $1.4625
Risk: stop placed at $1.4865 risking $1,200
Target: Target $1.2645
Daily Comment: Feeder Cattle opened higher on the back of the mildly bullish Cattle on Feed report but there was no follow through buying with prices trading in a small range and posting a doji candle.
ZM – Soybean Meal
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Soybean Meal
Entry Price: $309.60
Exit Price: $309.60
Trade Grade: 3.5/5
Daily Comment: The extreme volatility in Soybean Meal continued today. Prices traded lower during the overnight session trading back down to the 61.8% retracement level before bouncing strongly to test the recent highs. Prices finished well off the highs posting a candle with a long upper shadow.
Trade Review: Whilst the price action of the last couple of days has not damaged the bullish case at this stage I am happy to move on from this trade at break even given the extreme volatility.
HG – Copper
Trade: Long 1 contract of June Copper
Entry Price: $2.2580
Risk: stop placed at $2.2175 risking $1,012.50
Target: $2.76
Daily Comment: Copper continued to consolidate above the 200 SMA today with prices finishing slightly lower but causing no damage to the recent uptrend.
Here are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
SB - Sugar
Sugar prices were stronger today closing back above the 61.8% retracement mark and posting a bullish full bodied candle. I am looking for a close above 16.00 to confirm a break higher.
ZC – New Crop Corn
The volatility in Corn continued today with prices sharply higher trading back towards the 200 SMA attempting to undone the damage from Friday.
Here are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
SB - Sugar
Sugar retested the 61.8% retracement mark again during the session but bounced from this level closing higher and most importantly closing above the 16.00 level which has been acting as resistance recently.
ZM – Soybean Meal
Daily Comment: Soybean Meal was lower overnight but finished the session strongly closing back towards the recent highs. The extreme volatility that has been seen in Soybean Meal may be starting to settle down.
ZC – New Crop Corn
Corn rallied strongly again today closing at the 200 SMA.
Finished the day with another small loss with gains in Gold and Feeder Cattle outweighed by losses in Copper.
Here are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.
QO – Mini Gold
Trade: Long 1 contract of Jun Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,230
Risk: stop placed at $1,215.25 risking $737.50
Target: $1,600
Daily Comment: Gold continued its run higher today trading back up to the 61.8% retracement mark today. Prices finished off the highs posting a candle with an upper shadow.
GF - Feeder Cattle
Trade: Short 1 contract of May Feeder Cattle
Entry Price: $1.4625
Risk: stop placed at $1.4865 risking $1,200
Target: Target $1.2645
Daily Comment: Feeder Cattle opened higher trading back up towards the boundary of the rectangle channel before reversing to trade lower. Prices finished the day slightly lower posting a spinning top.
HG – Copper
Trade: Long 1 contract of June Copper
Entry Price: $2.2580
Exit Price: $2.217
Trade Grade: 3.5/5
Daily Comment: Copper was lower again during the overnight session trading through the 200 SMA back down to the 40 SMA. Prices finished off the lows posting a candle with a lower shadow and finishing back at the 20 SMA.
Trade Review: No issues with the trade and I followed my trading rules.
Here are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
SB - Sugar
Sugar finished lower today retesting the 61.8% retracement mark again during the session. Prices bounced from this level posting a candle with a lower shadow.
CL – Crude Oil
Oil continues to grind higher. Prices are nearing the falling 200 SMA. I will wait to see how prices react to this level before thinking about initiating any positions.
ZC – New Crop Corn
Corn failed again at the 200 SMA today finishing lower and posting a bearish full bodied candle.
Definitely interested to see how this one plays, especially since you called this out weeks ago. Seems like a lot of folks will be wondering how much more steam crude has here before at least a partial retracement.
Yeah I am definitely one of those folks wondering whether this rally has much more steam, especially given the lack of any new fundamental support.
There is another possible resistance level at the 61.8% retracement mark at $48.50 just above the 200 SMA as well. I could see prices being pushed up to $50 to trigger some stops before the downward momentum starts.
