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Muttoez Trading Journal

  #411 (permalink)
 
muttoez's Avatar
 muttoez 
Sydney + Australia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: CSI / Sierra Chart
Broker: IB
Trading: Everything
Posts: 505 since Mar 2016
Thanks Given: 63
Thanks Received: 313

Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.

CC - Cocoa

Cocoa pushed up towards the 200 SMA this week but has still not surpassed this level.



CT – Cotton

Cotton was sideways early in the week before falling on Thursday to close back below the 50 SMA.



KC – Coffee

Coffee touched the 200 SMA on Monday and quickly reversed falling for the rest of the week to close back below the 50 SMA. I should have been locking at first visit short opportunity rather than a long trade.



ZS – Soybean

Soybeans rallied sharply on Friday trading back up towards the 200 SMA. If prices surpass this level I may look at entering a long position.



CL – Crude Oil

Crude was mostly sideways this week and remains below the 200 SMA. If prices can surpass the 200 SMA I might look at entering a long position.


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  #412 (permalink)
 
muttoez's Avatar
 muttoez 
Sydney + Australia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: CSI / Sierra Chart
Broker: IB
Trading: Everything
Posts: 505 since Mar 2016
Thanks Given: 63
Thanks Received: 313

Trades for the week:

- Added to my long position in the Euro
- Entered a long position in Crude Oil

Below are my comments on my open positions.

M6E – Euro

Trade: Long 6 contracts of December Micro Euro
Average Entry Price: 1.1603
Stop: 1.1725

Weekly Comment: The Euro was lower on Monday after the German election results trading down to the 50 SMA for the first time since it crossed up through the 200 SMA so I added to my position with a stop below the recent swing low. Prices continued lower down through the 50 SMA on Tuesday and Wednesday but recovered on Thursday and Friday to finish the week back near the 50 SMA.



MCD – Canadian Dollar

Trade: Long 5 contracts of December Micro Canadian Dollar
Average Entry Price: $0.7745
Stop: $0.7801

Weekly Comment: The Loonie was sharply lower on Wednesday trading down to the 50 SMA. I was tempted to add to the position again at the 50 SMA but with it already flattening and the size of my USD exposure already I decided against it.



NK225M – Mini Nikkei

Trade: Long 2 contracts of December Mini Nikkei
Entry Price: 19,220
Stop: 18,890

Weekly Comment: The Nikkei was sideways for most of the week but pushed higher on Friday to close at new highs for the move.



QM – Mini Crude Oil

Trade: Long 1 contract of December Mini Crude Oil
Entry Price: 52.05
Stop: 50.65

Reasons for entering the trade:

Technical: Prices surpassed the 200 SMA after a long downtrend.

Fundamental: Tensions in Turkey were the catalyst for the move this week.

Reasons for Stop Placement: More than 1% below the 200 SMA.

Weekly Comment: Crude Oil broke out sharply on Monday surpassing the 200 SMA. The close on Monday was just outside my risk tolerance so I placed an order on Tuesday just above the 52 level which was triggered. Prices initially continued higher on Thursday before reversing to post a candle with a long upper shadow but an indecisive doji on Friday and the close above the 200 SMA still gives this trade a chance.


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  #413 (permalink)
 
muttoez's Avatar
 muttoez 
Sydney + Australia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: CSI / Sierra Chart
Broker: IB
Trading: Everything
Posts: 505 since Mar 2016
Thanks Given: 63
Thanks Received: 313


Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.

SI – Silver

Silver tested the 200 SMA early in the week but fell sharply from this level and continued lower to finish the week at new lows for the move and close below all the moving averages. Ending the trade early was the right decision in this case as the stop would have been triggered anyway this week.



JJN – Nickel

Nickel continued lower testing the 200 SMA on Wednesday but held and initially bounced back strongly on Friday but reversed to post a negative candle.



CC - Cocoa

Cocoa traded in a tight range this week but finished the week strongly closing just above the 200 SMA. The close wasn’t high enough and too much of the candle was below the 200 SMA on Friday to trigger an entry but I’ll be watching for any further strength next week.



ZS – Soybean

Soybeans didn’t push any higher this week falling back to the 50 SMA.



ZN – 10 Year Notes

The Notes were lower this week trading back down towards the 200 SMA. If the Notes trade down through the 200 SMA I may look at entering a short position.


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Thanked by:
  #414 (permalink)
 
muttoez's Avatar
 muttoez 
Sydney + Australia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: CSI / Sierra Chart
Broker: IB
Trading: Everything
Posts: 505 since Mar 2016
Thanks Given: 63
Thanks Received: 313

Below is my tracking sheet for Q1 with the key metrics I am currently following. I was previously tracking this monthly but I wanted to move away from short term performance and focus on longer term goals.



The year started off badly. My experiment not using hard stops failed miserably leading to a number of outsized losses to start the year and a quick 20% drawdown that I have been trying to claw my way back from since.

For comparison purposes I recreated my potential return for Q1 using hard stops. The comparison shows how big a difference a few bad trades can make on the overall performance.

I have been focused on reducing position sizes and risk per trade in an attempt to reduce the volatility and MAX drawdowns that have been a recurring feature of my trading in previous years. My average risk per trade was lower than last year in Q1 but still needs to come down closer to 2%.

I have also been looking for a way to benchmark my performance for some time and I recently came across the Societe Generale Trend Index which tracks CTA’s running diversified trend following programs that I believe offers the most effective benchmark. I’ll be monitoring this index moving forward to see how my trading performance tracks with professional CTA’s running similar trading programs.

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Thanked by:
  #415 (permalink)
 
muttoez's Avatar
 muttoez 
Sydney + Australia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: CSI / Sierra Chart
Broker: IB
Trading: Everything
Posts: 505 since Mar 2016
Thanks Given: 63
Thanks Received: 313

Trades for the week:

- Stopped out of my long position in Crude Oil
- Entered a long position in Cocoa

Below are my comments on my open positions.

M6E – Euro

Trade: Long 6 contracts of December Micro Euro
Average Entry Price: 1.1603
Stop: 1.1725

Weekly Comment: The Euro continued lower this week but held above the August lows on Friday close. If prices cannot bounce from here I will exit the second half of my position added recently.



MCD – Canadian Dollar

Trade: Long 5 contracts of December Micro Canadian Dollar
Average Entry Price: $0.7745
Stop: $0.7801

Weekly Comment: The Loonie continued lower this week but held the 61.8% retracement level on Friday. As with the Euro if prices do not bounce from here I will exit the additional contracts added when prices originally surpassed the 61.8% retracement level.



NK225M – Mini Nikkei

Trade: Long 2 contracts of December Mini Nikkei
Entry Price: 19,220
Stop: 18,890

Weekly Comment: The Nikkei continues to move higher making new highs for the move.



QM – Mini Crude Oil

Trade: Long 1 contract of December Mini Crude Oil
Entry Price: $52.05
Exit Price: $50.60
Result: -1.04R

Weekly Comment: Crude Oil was sharply lower on Monday trading down through the 200 SMA and triggering my stop. Prices clawed their way back to the 200 SMA on Thursday before falling sharply again on Friday to finish the week below the 50 SMA and the $50 level.



CC – Cocoa

Trade: Long 1 contract of December Cocoa
Entry Price: $2,055
Stop: $1,997

Reasons for entering the trade:

Technical: Prices surpassed the 200 SMA after a long downtrend.

Fundamental: Expectations of increased demand from Asia was the catalyst for price rises this week.

Reasons for Stop Placement: More than 1% below the 200 SMA.

Weekly Comment: Cocoa broke up through the 200 SMA on Tuesday triggering an entry. The close on Tuesday was outside my risk tolerance so I entered an order back at $2,055 which was triggered on Thursday. Cocoa finished the week with indecisive price action and I’m looking for a close above the $2,100 level for confirmation this break is credible.


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  #416 (permalink)
 
muttoez's Avatar
 muttoez 
Sydney + Australia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: CSI / Sierra Chart
Broker: IB
Trading: Everything
Posts: 505 since Mar 2016
Thanks Given: 63
Thanks Received: 313

Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.

ZS – Soybean

Soybeans pushed back above the 50 SMA but are still below the 200 SMA. Soybean Meal was also higher this week and is just below the 200 SMA. There is talk of poor growing conditions in South America so I will monitoring these markets for a long position.




HE – Lean Hogs

Hogs were sharply higher Monday. I was monitoring the market for an intersection with the 50 SMA to take a short position but prices were unable to surpass the 61.8% retracement of the recent range before falling sharply on Friday.



6N – New Zealand Dollar

The Kiwi broke down through the 200 SMA on Friday but the close was not low enough to trigger an entry. I will continue to monitor this market.



ZN – 10 Year Notes

The Notes tested the 200 SMA on Friday but bounced from this level to post a candle with a lower shadow. I may look at entering a short position if prices break the 200 SMA.



MIX - IBEX 35

The Spanish stock market was lower this week trading down through the 200 SMA for the first time since the break above the 200 SMA on tensions associated with the Catalan vote. I may look at taking a long position on a close back above the 200 SMA.


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  #417 (permalink)
 
muttoez's Avatar
 muttoez 
Sydney + Australia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: CSI / Sierra Chart
Broker: IB
Trading: Everything
Posts: 505 since Mar 2016
Thanks Given: 63
Thanks Received: 313

No trades this week.

Below are comments on my open positions.

M6E – Euro

Trade: Long 6 contracts of December Micro Euro
Average Entry Price: 1.1603
Stop: 1.1725

Weekly Comment: The Euro fought its way back to the 50 SMA this week but was unable to close above this level.



MCD – Canadian Dollar

Trade: Long 5 contracts of December Micro Canadian Dollar
Average Entry Price: $0.7745
Stop: $0.7801

Weekly Comment: The Loonie also fought its way back to the 50 SMA this week but was also unable to close above this level.



NK225M – Mini Nikkei

Trade: Long 2 contracts of December Mini Nikkei
Entry Price: 19,220
Stop: 18,890

Weekly Comment: The Nikkei exploded higher this week making new 20 year highs and finishing the week with a bullish full bodied candle.



CC – Cocoa

Trade: Long 1 contract of December Cocoa
Entry Price: $2,055
Stop: $1,997

Weekly Comment: There was a big shakeout in Cocoa on Monday which saw prices come within 2 ticks of my stop and close back below the 200 SMA but it quickly regained the ground above this level on Tuesday and moved higher on Wednesday after strong than expected demand data from Europe but prices continued to find resistance around the 2,100 – 2,125 level.


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  #418 (permalink)
 
muttoez's Avatar
 muttoez 
Sydney + Australia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: CSI / Sierra Chart
Broker: IB
Trading: Everything
Posts: 505 since Mar 2016
Thanks Given: 63
Thanks Received: 313

Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.

ZS – Soybean

Soybeans were sharply higher on Thursday after a bullish USDA report and continued higher on Friday. I’ll be looking to enter a long position next week.



SI - Silver

Silver closed back above the 200 SMA again on Friday. Any further strength next week and I may look at having one more shot at this trade.



CL – Crude Oil

Crude closed back above the 200 SMA again on Friday. Any further strength early next week and I may look at having one more shot at this trade.



6N – New Zealand Dollar

The Kiwi was sharply higher this week regaining the ground above the 200 SMA so I’m moving on from this market.



6M – Mexican Peso

The Peso has been falling consistently for a few weeks and is now approaching the 200 SMA for the first time since the uptrend began. If prices intersect with this level I may look at taking a long position.



ZN – 10 Year Notes

The Notes continued to hold above the 200 SMA this week rallying strongly on Friday to close back above the short term moving average.



MIX - IBEX 35

The Spanish stock market regained the ground above the 200 SMA this week. I looked at taking a long trade but the volume and spreads in the futures contract are not sufficient to trade this market.


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  #419 (permalink)
 
muttoez's Avatar
 muttoez 
Sydney + Australia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: CSI / Sierra Chart
Broker: IB
Trading: Everything
Posts: 505 since Mar 2016
Thanks Given: 63
Thanks Received: 313

Trades for the week:

- Entered and exited a long position in Soybeans

Below are comments on my open positions.

M6E – Euro

Trade: Long 6 contracts of December Micro Euro
Average Entry Price: 1.1603
Stop: 1.1725

Weekly Comment: The Euro dipped early in the week before fighting its way back to the 50 SMA but couldn’t surpass this level again this week.



MCD – Canadian Dollar

Trade: Long 5 contracts of December Micro Canadian Dollar
Average Entry Price: $0.7745
Stop: $0.7801

Weekly Comment: The Loonie tested the 61.8% retracement level again early in the week but closed back above this level. Prices fell sharply on Friday closing below this level. I was close to closing the second half of my position on the close on Friday but with the 100 SMA so close below I decided to give the trade a couple of more days.



NK225M – Mini Nikkei

Trade: Long 2 contracts of December Mini Nikkei
Entry Price: 19,220
Stop: 18,890

Weekly Comment: The Nikkei continued its run higher this week. The election over the weekend has the potential to add volatility to this position next week.



CC – Cocoa

Trade: Long 1 contract of December Cocoa
Entry Price: $2,055
Stop: $1,997

Weekly Comment: Cocoa was lower early in the week but bounced from the 20 SMA and rallied sharply on Thursday to close above the top of the recent range. Prices were weak on Friday after lower than expected North American demand but held above the top of the range.



YK - Soybean

Trade: Long 2 contracts of January Mini Soybean
Average Entry Price: $10.035
Stop: $9.83
Exit Price: $9.8675
Result: -0.82R

Reasons for entering the trade:

Technical: Prices surpassed the 200 SMA after a long downtrend.

Fundamental: Lower US ending stocks as well as concerns about South American crops were the catalyst for recent price rises.

Reasons for Stop Placement: More than 1% below the 200 SMA.

Weekly Comment: Soybeans were lower on Monday and I entered a position at the midpoint of Friday’s candle and then again at the 200 SMA. I didn’t view this trade as a high quality setup so I kept the position size very small. Prices continued lower for the remainder of the week but remained near the 200 SMA. After prices initially rallied back above the $10 level and the 200 SMA on Friday but then reversed to finish the day lower I decided to exit the position before my stop was hit.


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  #420 (permalink)
 
muttoez's Avatar
 muttoez 
Sydney + Australia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: CSI / Sierra Chart
Broker: IB
Trading: Everything
Posts: 505 since Mar 2016
Thanks Given: 63
Thanks Received: 313


Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.

SI - Silver

Silver fell back below the 200 SMA early in the week and was unable to close back above this level.



CL – Crude Oil

Crude posted a number of indecisive candles to start the week before falling back towards the 200 SMA but held this level on Friday and bounced to finish the week strongly.



6N – New Zealand Dollar

The Kiwi collapsed on Thursday after the Labour party formed a coalition government. The close on Thursday was too low for me to take a position within my risk parameters.



6M – Mexican Peso

The Peso traded down towards the 200 SMA on Tuesday and bounced strongly from this level. I had an order to buy just above the 200 SMA which was missed by 1 tick. Prices fell back later in the week and may look to re-test the 200 SMA again.



ZN – 10 Year Notes

The Notes fell on Friday after Congress paved the way for tax cuts closing below the 200 SMA but not low enough to trigger an entry.


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Last Updated on August 14, 2018


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