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- Entered a long position in the British Pound
- Added to my short position in German Schatz
Below are my comments on my open positions and closed trades for the week.
M6E – Euro
Trade: Long 3 contracts of September Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.131
Stop: 1.131 risking $0
Target: 1.2863
Weekly Comment: The Euro kicked higher this week after the ECB meeting and continues to make new highs.
SIL – Silver (1,000)
Trade: Short 1 contracts of September Silver (1,000)
Entry Price: 16.35
Stop: 16.35 Risking $0
Target: 14.06
Weekly Comment: Silver continued higher this week with the fall in the US dollar. The close on Friday puts the trade in a small losing position for the first time. I’m not willing to let this trade go much further against me after being in the trade for this long and I will be looking to exit on any further strength.
ZC – Corn
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Corn
Entry Price: $4.035
Stop: $3.925 risking $550
Target: $4.62
Weekly Comment: Corn rallied strongly in the middle of the week but the rally was negated on Friday with a sharp fall. With the end of July approaching which is the most important month for pollination I need to see higher prices with some follow through or it will be time to move on from this position.
MCD – Canadian Dollar
Trade: Long 3 contracts of Micro Canadian Dollar
Entry Price: $0.7592
Stop: $0.7592 risking $0
Target: $0.85
Weekly Comment: The Loonie continued higher this week and is now approaching the last major highs around $0.80.
FGBS – German Schatz
Trade: Short 2 contract of September Schatz
Entry Price: 111.91
Stop: 112.03 risking $180
Target: 110.95
Weekly Comment: The Schatz traded back up to the 200 SMA early in the week and I added to the position. Prices traded above the 200 SMA later in the week but found resistance around the 50 SMA posting two candles with upper shadows. I may look to add another contract near the 50 SMA.
6L – Brazilian Real
Trade: Short 1 contract of August Brazilian Real
Entry Price: $0.3059
Stop: $0.3122 risking $630
Weekly Comment: I attempted to exit the position this week with a resting order below the market trying to improve the exit but it was not triggered. I was extremely busy at work this week with little time to monitor the markets and let this trade get away from me. That’s the first strike against manual stops. Two more strikes and I will be back to hard stops.
M6B – British Pound
Trade: Long 2 contracts of September Micro British Pound
Entry Price: $1.3060
Stop: $1.2795 risking $331
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices traded back down to the recent highs which I believed were likely to act as support.
Fundamental: Brexit is currently the driving fundamental force in the Pound.
Reasons for Stop Placement: Below the 61.8% retracement, 50 SMA and the most recent swing low with a bit of extra room to spare.
Weekly Comment: The Pound fell on Tuesday after some weak economic data trading back down to the recent highs where I entered. Prices continued lower later in the week but found support at the 20 SMA.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
ZS – Soybean
Soybeans regained the ground above the 200 SMA this week and I’ll continue to monitor for another buying opportunity.
ZR – Rough Rice
Rice prices have been falling since the break above the 200 SMA. If prices trade low enough to intersect with the 50 SMA I may look at entering long position.
RC – Robusta Coffee
Robusta fell away from the 200 SMA early in the week but rallied on Friday to finish the week back near this level.
CT – Cotton
Cotton prices have been rising since the break below the 200 SMA. If prices trade high enough to intersect with the 50 SMA I may look at entering short position.
HG – Copper
Copper was higher this week trading back up to the 61.8% retracement level but has not been able to break through yet.
6Z – South African Rand
The Rand continued higher this week closing above the 50 SMA on Friday and come off the watch list.
6S – Swiss Franc
The Swiss Franc was sharply lower on Thursday but didn’t quite trade low enough to intersect with the 50 SMA before turning around to finish the day higher posting a candle with a long lower shadow and then continued higher on Friday.
ZN – 10 Year Note
The US 10 Year Notes continued higher this week closing above the 50 SMA.
FGBL – German Bund
The German 10 year Bund was higher again this week trading back up towards the 200 SMA.
R – UK Long Gilt
The UK 10 year Gilts traded up strongly this week after some weak UK economic data and come off the watch lsit.
FOAT – French OAT’s
The French 10 year OAT’s continued higher this week trading up to the 50 SMA and come off the watch list.
FBTP – Long Term Italian BTP
The Italian 10 year BTP’s were up strongly this week trading back above the 50 SMA come off the watch list.
PSI-20 - Portugal
The Portuguese stock market was sideways this week and was unable to make a new closing high. The weakness did not cross over to the PGAL ETF and wasn’t able to get a fill with my order below the market.
TSE 60 – Canada
The Canadian stock market continues to hover around the 200 SMA but has not been able to break this level.
- Exited my short position in the Brazilian Real
- Added to my short position in German Schatz
Below are my comments on my open positions and closed trades for the week.
M6E – Euro
Trade: Long 3 contracts of September Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.131
Stop: 1.131 risking $0
Target: 1.2863
Weekly Comment: The Euro continued higher this week finishing the week at a new closing high.
SIL – Silver (1,000)
Trade: Short 1 contracts of September Silver (1,000)
Entry Price: 16.35
Stop: 16.35 Risking $0
Target: 14.06
Weekly Comment: Silver attempted to move lower a number of times this week but was supported well on each attempt and closed strongly on Friday back up at the 50 SMA.
ZC – Corn
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Corn
Entry Price: $4.035
Stop: $3.925 risking $550
Target: $4.62
Weekly Comment: Corn gapped lower on Monday after weekend rains and then gapped higher on Tuesday after the crop condition reports before reversing to finishing the day much lower. Prices recovered later in the week to close back near the 200 SMA. The danger period for the crops has now passed and I believe the upside in Corn is limited. I’m looking to exit on any rally up towards the $4 mark.
MCD – Canadian Dollar
Trade: Long 3 contracts of Micro Canadian Dollar
Entry Price: $0.7592
Stop: $0.7592 risking $0
Target: $0.85
Weekly Comment: The Loonie found resistance this week when it reached the May 16 highs falling sharply on Thursday and posting an engulfing candle but it bounced back strongly on Friday after the GDP data to finish the week at a new closing high for the move.
FGBS – German Schatz
Trade: Short 3 contract of September Schatz Average Entry Price: 111.97
Stop: 112.08 risking $340
Target: 110.95
Weekly Comment: The Schatz continued to hang around the 50 SMA early in the week and I added to the position. Prices continued higher later in the week finishing the week near my revised stop level. I revised my stop level in the middle of the week as it didn’t make sense where it was being so close to the 50 SMA.
6L – Brazilian Real
Trade: Short 1 contract of August Brazilian Real
Entry Price: $0.3059
Exit Price: $0.3155
Result: -1.47R
Weekly Comment: The Real dipped back towards the 61.8% retracement level on Tuesday and I exited the position. Prices bounced from this level and finished the week strongly on Friday with a bullish full bodied candle.
M6B – British Pound
Trade: Long 2 contracts of September Micro British Pound
Entry Price: $1.3060
Stop: $1.2795 risking $331
Weekly Comment: The Pound was higher this week trading back above the recent highs and finishing the week at a new high close for the move.
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
ZS – Soybean
Soybeans fell sharply on Tuesday trading back below the 200 SMA but recovered later in the week to finish back near the 200 SMA.
ZR – Rough Rice
Rice rose strongly this week making new highs and comes off the watch list for now.
RC – Robusta Coffee
Robusta traded back up to the 200 SMA on Wednesday but found resistance at this level again. I’m waiting for the 200 SMA to actually turn over before contemplating entering a short position again.
CT – Cotton
Cotton remained in a tight sideways range this week with support provided by the 20 SMA.
CC – Cocoa
Cocoa has been range bound for several months after a long downtrend forming a strong base. If prices continue higher and break above the 200 SMA I may look at entering a long position.
HG – Copper
Copper was sharply higher on Tuesday but struggled to continue higher finding resistance around the Feb highs. The price moved too far to enter a position in the full futures contract and the mini contract doesn’t have sufficient volume so I’m focused on the ETF JJC for a potential entry if prices re-test the midpoint of Tuesdays’ candle.
NI - Nickel
LME Nickel traded above the 200 SMA on Friday after a long downtrend but has not yet broken this level. If this level can be broken I may look to enter a long position in the ETF JJN which shows a similar pattern.
6S – Swiss Franc
The Swiss Franc was sharply lower on Thursday trading down into the 50 SMA and continued lower through this level on Friday. I was looking for an entry on Thursday but the micro contract doesn’t have sufficient volume and the full sized contract was outside my risk tolerance parameters so I passed on the trade.
FGBL – German Bund
The German 10 year Bund found resistance at the 200 SMA early in the week before falling back towards the 61.8% retracement level.
Japan JGB
The Japanese 10 Year JGB’s rallied back up to the 200 SMA after breaking through recently.
PSI-20 - Portugal
The Portuguese stock market was lower this week trading back down through the 50 SMA and comes off the watch list.
TSE 60 – Canada
The Canadian stock market continues to hover around the 200 SMA but has not been able to break this level.
DAX – Germany
The German stock market was lower this week and is approaching the 200 SMA for the first time since the uptrend began. I may look at entering a long position if the price trades low enough to intersect with this level.
Below are my comments on my open positions for the week.
M6E – Euro
Trade: Long 3 contracts of September Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.131
Stop: 1.131 risking $0
Target: 1.2863
Weekly Comment: The Euro continued higher early in the week trading up to May 16 highs but fell strongly on Friday posting an engulfing candle that may signal some corrective price action ahead. I’m looking for a pull back to the 50 SMA to add to the position.
SIL – Silver (1,000)
Trade: Short 1 contracts of September Silver (1,000)
Entry Price: 16.35
Stop: 16.35 Risking $0
Target: 14.06
Weekly Comment: Silver attempted to move lower again a number of times early in the week but continued to find support until Friday when prices fell sharply after the strong jobs report posting a bearish full bodied candle and closing below the 20 SMA.
ZC – Corn
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Corn
Entry Price: $4.035
Stop: $3.925 risking $550
Target: $4.62
Weekly Comment: Corn was sharply lower on Tuesday trading down to the bottom of the recent range. Prices found support again at this level and moved higher on Friday to close off the lows of the week.
MCD – Canadian Dollar
Trade: Long 3 contracts of Micro Canadian Dollar
Entry Price: $0.7592
Stop: $0.7592 risking $0
Target: $0.85
Weekly Comment: The Loonie drifted lower early in the week posting a number of indecisive candles before falling sharply on Friday closing below the 20 SMA on Friday. I’m looking for a pull back to the 50 SMA to add to the position.
FGBS – German Schatz
Trade: Short 3 contract of September Schatz Average Entry Price: 111.97
Stop: 112.08 risking $340
Target: 110.95
Weekly Comment: The Schatz rose higher on Tuesday triggering an exit. I had an order to exit on Wednesday just below the low of the day and didn’t get filled. With the weakness on Wednesday I decided to pull my order and see if prices continued lower. The close on Friday was right near my stop level and I will continue to stick with the position for now.
M6B – British Pound
Trade: Long 2 contracts of September Micro British Pound
Entry Price: $1.3060
Stop: $1.2795 risking $331
Weekly Comment: The Pound was lower on Thursday after weak economic data posting an engulfing candle and then followed through on Friday with another bearish candle to finish the week back near my entry level. With the negative price action I’ll probably exit the position on Monday.
JJN – Nickel
Trade: Long 295 Share of JJN Nickel ETF
Entry Price: $12.20
Stop: $11.86 risking $100
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices broke through the 200 SMA for the 2nd time after a long downtrend.
Fundamental: Reduced supply from mine closure in Indonesia and low prices has the potential to drive Nickel higher.
Reasons for Stop Placement: More than 1% below the 200 SMA.
Weekly Comment: Nickel held above the 200 SMA and moved higher triggering an entry. I was able to enter on Friday with the little bit of weakness as prices re-tested the 200 SMA and held.
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
6L – Brazilian Real
The real traded in a tight sideways range this week and comes off the watch list for now.
ZS – Soybean
Soybeans broke lower again this week trading back down to the 50 SMA and come off the watch list.
RC – Robusta Coffee
Robusta traded back up to the 200 SMA again on Wednesday and was unable to break this level. The 200 SMA is in the process of turning lower and I’m looking at entering a short position.
CT – Cotton
Cotton traded up through the 50 SMA this week. I have been waiting for prices to intersect with the 50 SMA to enter a short position but a slow crawl up to the moving average is not the kind of price action which usually leads to a successful trade with this setup so I passed on the trade.
CC – Cocoa
Cocoa traded in a small sideways range this week and remains below the 200 SMA. If prices can break this level I may look at entering a long position
HG – Copper
Copper traded in a tight sideways range this week consolidating last week’s break out with the Feb highs providing support at this stage.
PL - Platinum
Platinum was higher this week trading up through the 200 SMA. The indecisive price action on Friday was not ideal but was still strong considering the falls in other precious metals. I will be monitoring Platinum next week and looking to enter a long position in the PPLT ETF as the futures contract is outside my risk tolerance parameteres.
FGBL – German Bund
The German 10 year Bund traded up through the 200 SMA on Thursday but found resistance at the 61.8% retracement of the recent range.
Japan JGB
The Japanese 10 Year JGB’s traded in a tight range this week around the 200 SMA.
TSE 60 – Canada
The Canadian stock market continues to hover around the 200 SMA closing back above this level on Friday.
DAX – Germany
The German stock market continued to drift lower this week but has not yet traded low enough to intersect with the 200 SMA.
The combination of IB live and delayed data with SC's historical data service has been fine for swing trading the US markets. I really only need daily data so I haven't had any data quality issues.
I recently started using a second version of SC connected to the historical data service without a trading account which provides delayed or daily data for a lot of additional markets in other countries that are tradeable with IB but aren't covered by IB's data without paying exchange fees. I may switch to SC for all data in the future.
Trade: Long 3 contracts of September Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.131
Stop: 1.131 risking $0
Target: 1.2863
Weekly Comment: The Euro was lower early in the week before finding support at the 20 SMA and finished the week on a positive note closing back above the 1.18 level.
SIL – Silver (1,000)
Trade: Short 1 contracts of September Silver (1,000)
Entry Price: 16.35
Stop: 16.35 Risking $0
Target: 14.06
Weekly Comment: Silver ripped higher on Wednesday on the tension with North Korea. Whilst the price action triggered an exit I did not take it as I believe the rally will be short lived. Prices held below the 200 SMA and are still within my maximum risk per trade level so I am happy to continue to hold while below the 200 SMA.
ZC – Corn
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Corn
Entry Price: $4.035
Stop: $3.925 risking $550
Target: $4.62
Weekly Comment: Corn pushed back up to the 200 SMA level early in the week before collapsing on Thursday after a bearish USDA report. I was very close to exiting on Friday but the price held the bottom of the range. I don’t believe the numbers in the USDA so I am reluctant to sell at these levels but if prices move any further lower I will have no choice but to exit.
MCD – Canadian Dollar
Trade: Long 3 contracts of Micro Canadian Dollar
Entry Price: $0.7592
Stop: $0.7592 risking $0
Target: $0.85
Weekly Comment: The Loonie continued to drift lower this week before finally finding some support on Friday and posting a higher close.
FGBS – German Schatz
Trade: Short 3 contract of September Schatz Average Entry Price: 111.97
Stop: 112.08 risking $340
Target: 110.95
Weekly Comment: The Schatz also pushed higher on Wednesday on the tension with North Korea triggering an exit which I also didn’t take. Prices are still within my maximum risk per trade level so I am happy to continue to hold in the short term.
M6B – British Pound
Trade: Long 2 contracts of September Micro British Pound
Entry Price: $1.3060
Stop: $1.2795 risking $331
Weekly Comment: The Pound continued lower early in the week but held above the recent swing low so I stuck with the position. Prices finished higher on Friday holding above the 1.30 level.
JJN – Nickel
Trade: Long 295 Share of JJN Nickel ETF
Entry Price: $12.20
Stop: $11.86 risking $100
Weekly Comment: Nickel surged higher on Tuesday confirming the break above the 200 SMA before finding resistance at the 61.8% retracement of the recent range and falling back slightly at the end of the week.
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
RC – Robusta Coffee
Robusta pushed above the 200 SMA early in the week but quickly fell back below this level before rallying on Friday to close back at the 200 SMA.
CT – Cotton
Cotton continued higher above the 50 SMA early in the week before collapsing on Thursday after a negative USDA report to close back at the 61.8% retracement of the recent range. If prices can break this level I may look at entering a short position.
CC – Cocoa
Cocoa drifted lower this week trading back down to the 50 SMA.
PL - Platinum
Platinum continued higher this week consolidating the break above the 200 SMA. With a number of candles with upper shadows it was hard to justify entering a position.
FGBL – German Bund
The German 10 year Bund continued up through the 61.8% retracement level on Wednesday and comes off the watch list for now.
Japan JGB
The Japanese 10 Year JGB’s pushed above the 50 and 200 SMA’s this week and come off the watch list.
TSE 60 – Canada
The Canadian stock market was lower on Thursday and Friday and may have broken through the 200 SMA.
DAX – Germany
The German stock market continued lower this week intersecting with the 200 SMA where the market was supported on Friday. I’ll be looking to take a long position early next week.
Nikkei - Japan
The Japanese stock market broke lower this week trading down through the 50 SMA. If prices continue lower down to the 200 SMA I may look at entering a long position.
