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I was stopped out of my Soybean Oil position during the overnight session and entered a new Short position in Feeder Cattle at the close.
Finished the day with a small gain in Gold and Feeder Cattle.
Here are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.
ZL – Soybean Oil
Trade: Long 2 contracts of July Soybean Oil
Entry Price: $0.3412
Exit Price: $0.3353
Trade Grade: 2.5/5
Daily Comment: I was stopped out of my position during the weakness in the overnight session. Prices rallied strongly during the day session trading back up to the 15 SMA and posting a bullish full bodied candle.
Trade Review: My Stops were run during the overnight session potentially taking my out of the trade prematurely as prices rallied back during the day session. I may need to look at only using day session Stops for trades in the grain market. I may look to re-enter the trade if prices can exceed the 61.8% retracement mark at $0.3438 with impulsiveness.
QO – Mini Gold
Trade: Long 1 contract of Jun Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,230
Risk: stop placed at $1,219.50 risking $525
Target: $1,600
Daily Comment: Gold was higher during the overnight session trading up to the 40 SMA before reversing and finishing the day slightly lower.
GF - Feeder Cattle
Trade: Short 1 contract of May Feeder Cattle
Entry Price: $1.4625
Risk: stop placed at $1.4865 risking $1,200
Target: Target $1.2645
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical Factors: The price has broken the 61.8% retracement of the recent range with impulsiveness and strong volume and has penetrated the boundary of the rectangle channel that prices have traded in for the last 6 months.
Fundamental Factors: Increasing supplies of cattle and sluggish demand have been impacting cattle prices since late 2015. The price of grain has also been rising impacting the cost of feed.
Daily Comment: Feeder Cattle prices were sharply lower today with prices finishing limit down and posting a bearish full bodied candle.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Here are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
CL – Crude Oil
Oil gapped lower during the overnight session after a failed OPEC meeting to freeze production. Prices rallied back strongly during the day session filling the gap and posting a candle with a lower shadow.
SB – Sugar
Sugar rallied up to the 61.8% retracement level of the recent range today but finished off the highs posting a candle with an upper shadow.
ZM – Soybean Meal
I have shifted my attention to the December contract. Soybean Meal rallied up to the 61.8% retracement of the recent range before reversing and finishing lower posting a candle with a long upper shadow.
I entered a new Long position in Soybean Meal during the session.
Finished the day with gains in all positions.
Here are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.
QO – Mini Gold
Trade: Long 1 contract of Jun Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,230
Risk: stop placed at $1,219.50 risking $525
Target: $1,600
Daily Comment: Gold moved higher today trading back up to the 61.8% retracement level of the recent range posting a bullish full bodied candle. This level will need to be surpassed to confirm another wave higher.
GF Feeder Cattle
Trade: Short 1 contract of May Feeder Cattle
Entry Price: $1.4625
Risk: stop placed at $1.4865 risking $1,200
Target: Target $1.2645
Daily Comment: Feeder Cattle prices traded up to retest the bottom of the rectangle channel during the session but finished lower posting an indecisive doji candle.
ZM – Soybean Meal
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Soybean Meal
Entry Price: $309.60
Risk: stop placed at $302.90 risking $670
Target: Target $370
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical Factors: Prices have surpassed the 200 SMA after a long downtrend and have also surpassed the 61.8% retracement mark of the recent range.
Fundamental Factors: Lower than expected prospective plantings in the US and weather issues in South America appear to be driving prices higher.
Daily Comment: Soybean Meal was strongly higher during the session exceeding the 61.8% retracement level of the recent range on strong volume posting a bullish full bodied candle.
Finished the day with a gain with gains in Soybean Meal and Feeder Cattle reduced slightly by losses in Gold.
Here are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.
QO – Mini Gold
Trade: Long 1 contract of Jun Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,230
Risk: stop placed at $1,219.50 risking $525
Target: $1,600
Daily Comment: Gold edged over the 61.8% retracement of the recent range during the overnight session before reversing to finish the day lower posting a candle with an upper shadow.
GF - Feeder Cattle
Trade: Short 1 contract of May Feeder Cattle
Entry Price: $1.4625
Risk: stop placed at $1.4865 risking $1,200
Target: Target $1.2645
Daily Comment: Feeder Cattle finished slightly lower for the day trading in a small range and posting another indecisive doji candle.
ZM – Soybean Meal
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Soybean Meal
Entry Price: $309.60
Risk: stop placed at $302.90 risking $670
Target: Target $370
Daily Comment: Soybean Meal was higher again today on very strong volume posting another bullish full bodied candle.
Here are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
KC – Coffee
Coffee managed to close back above the 200 SMA today. The break of this level was not confirmed by the day’s price action and an entry signal has not yet been triggered. My preference is to wait for prices to surpass the 61.8% retracement of the recent range before entering a Long position.
SB - Sugar
A volatile session in Sugar with prices trading back down to the 40 SMA before reversing strongly and closing above the 61.8% retracement mark of the recent range. The break of this level was not confirmed by the day’s price action and an entry signal has not yet been triggered.
ZC – Corn & ZW - Wheat
Both Corn and Wheat in the new crop have now followed the lead of Soybeans and broken through their 200 SMA’s after long downtrends.
I entered a long position in Copper at the start of the day session.
Strong gains to start the day but finished the session flat after reversals in all positions.
Here are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.
QO – Mini Gold
Trade: Long 1 contract of Jun Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,230
Risk: stop placed at $1,219.50 risking $525
Target: $1,600
Daily Comment: Gold surpassed the 61.8% retracement of the recent range at the start of the session attempting to negate the head and shoulders pattern. Gold reversed to finish the day lower posting a candle with a long upper shadow.
GF - Feeder Cattle
Trade: Short 1 contract of May Feeder Cattle
Entry Price: $1.4625
Risk: stop placed at $1.4865 risking $1,200
Target: Target $1.2645
Daily Comment: Feeder Cattle posted new lows today but finished slightly higher after trading both higher and lower during the session and posting another indecisive doji candle.
ZM – Soybean Meal
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Soybean Meal
Entry Price: $309.60
Risk: stop placed at $302.90 risking $670
Target: Target $370
Daily Comment: Soybean Meal was up strongly early in the session before sellers moved in to push prices back down. Soybean Meal finished the day higher but posted a candle with a long upper shadow.
HG – Copper
Trade: Long 1 contract of June Copper
Entry Price: $2.2580
Risk: stop placed at $2.1960 risking $1,550
Target: $2.76
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical Factors: Prices have surpassed the 200 SMA after a long downtrend and have also surpassed the 61.8% retracement mark of the recent range.
Fundamental Factors: No strong fundamental factor supporting the trade. Prices appear to be supported by signs of better global growth.
Daily Comment: Copper was higher early in the session before sellers moved in to push the price lower. Copper finished slightly higher for the session posting a candle with an upper shadow.
Here are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
KC – Coffee
Coffee traded up to the 61.8% retracement mark during the session before reversing strongly and finishing the day lower closing below all moving averages.
SB - Sugar
Sugar traded back down through the 61.8% retracement mark during the session but recovered to close back above this level posting a candle with a long lower shadow.
ZC – Corn & ZW - Wheat
Both Corn and Wheat in the new crop were higher again today before reversing to finish sharply lower back down at the 200 SMA.
Finished the day with an overall gain with gains in Feeder Cattle and Copper reduced by losses in Gold and Soybean Meal.
Here are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.
QO – Mini Gold
Trade: Long 1 contract of Jun Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,230
Risk: stop placed at $1,219.50 risking $525
Target: $1,600
Daily Comment: Gold traded back up towards the 61.8% retracement mark during the overnight session but prices fell sharply during the day session. Gold finished slightly off the lows but posted a bearish full bodied candle.
GF - Feeder Cattle
Trade: Short 1 contract of May Feeder Cattle
Entry Price: $1.4625
Risk: stop placed at $1.4865 risking $1,200
Target: Target $1.2645
Daily Comment: Feeder Cattle was lower today in the lead up to the cattle on feed report passing the December lows and posting a bearish full bodied candle.
ZM – Soybean Meal
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Soybean Meal
Entry Price: $309.60
Risk: stop placed at $308.50 risking $110
Target: Target $370
Daily Comment: Given the extreme volatility in yesterday’s trade I moved my Stop up to almost break even at the start of the day session. Soybean Meal prices collapsed today trading all the way back down towards my entry price and posting a bearish full bodied candle. My Stop was not hit so I’m still in the trade for now.
HG – Copper
Trade: Long 1 contract of June Copper
Entry Price: $2.2580
Risk: stop placed at $2.2175 risking $1,012.50
Target: $2.76
Daily Comment: With the volatility across all commodities yesterday I moved my Stop up to the low of yesterday’s candle to reduce my risk on the trade. Copper retested the 200 SMA during the overnight session before trading higher during the day session making new highs for the move. Copper finished off the highs posting a spinning top.
Here are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
SB - Sugar
Another volatile session in Sugar with prices trading back above the 61.8% retracement level before finishing lower closing below this level and posting a candle with a long upper shadow.
ZC – Corn & ZW - Wheat
Both Corn and Wheat in the new crop were sharply lower today closing well below the 200 SMA and negating any possible bullish break.
Trades for the Week:
- Exited my Long position in Soybean Oil for a loss
- Entered a Short position in Feeder Cattle
- Entered a Long position in Soybean Meal
- Entered a Long position in Copper
It was a highly volatile week in the commodity sector. I made some solid gains this week undoing some of the damage from the week before.
I’ll start the weekly update with comments on my open positions at the end of the week.
QO – Mini Gold
Gold finished the week almost flat. It continues to run into resistance on any attempt to surpass the 61.8% retracement mark. The head and shoulders pattern is still in play despite attempts to negate the pattern on Thursday.
GF - Feeder Cattle
Feeder Cattle broke out of the rectangle channel at the start week. Prices then consolidated the break before moving lower again to finish the week at the December lows. The Cattle on Feed report released after the close on Friday appears to be mildly bullish which may support prices to start next week.
ZM – Soybean Meal
Soybean Meal surged higher to start the week and was sharply higher in Thursday’s trade before reversing strongly and leaving a candle with a long upper shadow. Prices were sharply lower on Friday posting a bearish engulfing candle and suggesting that the bullish move may have come to end. With the significant increase in volatility I will probably look to close out this trade at break even and move on.
HG – Copper
Copper broke higher on Tuesday and was able to close above the 200 SMA in Thursday’s trade. Prices consolidated above the 200 SMA on Friday but finished the day off the highs. I am looking for the previous high at $2.325 to be surpassed for confirmed a bullish break has been staged.
