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Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
6N – New Zealand Dollar
The Kiwi continued higher early in the week but paused initially at the 200 SMA. Prices broke through the 200 SMA on Friday trading up towards the 61.8% retracement of the recent range where my trade would have been stopped out for a loss if I had not moved the stop up to break even.
CT – Cotton
Cotton continued to drift lower this week but remains above the 200 SMA which is flattening. If prices trade down through the 200 SMA I may look at entering a short position.
ZM – Soybean Meal
Soybean Meal continued lower on Tuesday before pausing and then rallying strongly on Friday to finish the week practically unchanged.
GF – Feeder Cattle
The Feeders were initially lower on Tuesday but did not trade low enough to trigger my order which was waiting just above the recent lows. Prices rallied strongly from this point trading back up above the 61.8% retracement of the recent range but the close on Friday does not provide confirmation that this level has been surpassed.
6M – Mexican Peso
The Peso fell back below the recent highs this week but there has been no damage to the uptrend at this stage.
CC – Cocoa
Cocoa rallied strongly on Tuesday back up to the 61.8% retracement level but was unable to surpass this level.
6L – Brazilian Real
The Real attempted to rally back above the 200 SMA on Thursday but was unable to hold above this level finishing the day lower and posting a candle with an upper shadow.
SB – Sugar
Sugar fell sharply this week posting lower lows each day this week.
Crude Oil briefly traded back up above the 50 SMA at the start of the week before falling sharply for the remainder of the week and finding support at the 61.8% retracement of the recent range.
GC – Gold
Gold consolidated the break above the 200 SMA this week. If prices can surpass the major 61.8% retracement level near $1,300 I may look at entering a long position.
DX – US Dollar Index
The US Dollar continued its move lower this week finishing the week at a new low for the move.
ES – S&P 500
The S&P 500 continues its run higher making new all time highs.
ZN – 10 Year Note
The Notes confirmed a break above the 200 SMA this week rallying strongly to finish the week at new highs for the move.
Trade: Long 3 contracts of June Micro British Pound Average Entry Price: 1.2847
Stop: 1.2497 risking $656.25
Target: 1.52
Weekly Comment: The Cable was extremely volatile on Friday after Britain’s election resulted in a hung parliament gapping lower at the open and trading back down to the 200 SMA before finishing the day practically unchanged. The June contract is due to be rolled this week so I’ll give the trade a couple of days to see the next price action before determining whether to exit and move on.
6E – Euro
Trade: Long 2 contracts of June Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.11005
Stop: 1.0854 risking $616.25
Target: 1.28
Weekly Comment: The Euro was lower this week but found support at the 20 SMA on Friday.
SIL – Silver (1,000)
Trade: Short 2 contracts of July Silver (1,000)
Entry Price: 16.90
Stop: 17.125
Target: 14
Weekly Comment: Silver was higher again on Monday trading up to the 200 SMA and the 61.8% retracement of the recent range. I believed there was a possibility that prices could fall from this level and held onto the trade. Prices did fall from this level trading back down to the 20 SMA.
ZC – Corn
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Corn
Entry Price: $4.035
Stop: $3.925 risking $550
Target: $4.62
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices surpassed the 61.8% retracement of the major range on strong volume.
Fundamental: Dry weather is raising concern about crop yields.
Weekly Comment: Corn rallied sharply on Tuesday and Wednesday surpassing the 61.8% retracement of the major range. I entered in the overnight session on Thursday and prices initially continued to move higher but were unable to close near the highs posting a candle with a long upper shadow. I thought about dumping the trade straight away but decided to stick with it and wait for confirmation at the close the next day. Prices initially traded lower on Friday but bounced from the 61.8% retracement level to close the day higher and at a new high close for the move.
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
CT – Cotton
Cotton traded down to the 200 SMA this week but held above this level. If prices break this level I may look at adding a short position.
ZM – Soybean Meal
Soybean Meal rallied this week but found resistance at the 50 SMA. I contemplated taking a short position but with the rest of the grain complex rallying I decided against it.
GF – Feeder Cattle
The Feeders were sharply lower on Tuesday closing back below the 61.8% retracement level and were unable to close back above this level for the remainder of the week.
CC – Cocoa
Cocoa was supported at the 50 SMA all week and rallied on Friday to close back at the 61.8% retracement level.
6L – Brazilian Real
The Real was sharply lower again on Monday but found support again at the 61.8% retracement level. If prices break this level I may look at adding a short position.
ZW – Wheat
Wheat rallied back up to the 200 SMA this week closing slightly above this level on Thursday but the price action so far has not been convincing enough to take a long position.
Crude Oil was sharply lower on Wednesday after the storage report trading back down through the 61.8% retracement level.
GC – Gold
Gold traded up to the major 61.8% retracement level on Monday finding resistance at this level and trading back down to the 50 SMA.
DX – US Dollar Index
The US Dollar continued in a tight range before gapping higher on Friday after the UK election result but finished the day with an indecisive candle.
ES – S&P 500
The S&P 500 dipped during the week before an extended range of trading on Friday which produced new highs but an indecisive close. With the sharp losses in the NASDAQ on Friday we may see some further weakness next week.
ZN – 10 Year Note
The Notes traded in a small range this week finishing the week slightly lower.
- Exited my long position in the Pound
- Rolled my long position in the Euro from June to September
- Exited the other half my Short position in Silver
- Entered a long position in the Canadian Dollar
- Entered a short position in Robusta Coffee
Below are my comments on my open positions and closed trades.
Weekly Comment: The Cable was lower on Monday. With the contract needing to be rolled I had an order just below the 1.27 level which was triggered with the fall on Monday. With the recent weakness in price I decided to exit the position and did not roll into the September contract. Prices held above the election lows and moved higher for the remainder of the week trading back towards the 50 SMA. The 61.8% retracement level is sitting right at the top of the gap and if this level is surpassed I may look at re-entering the position.
6E – Euro
Trade: Long 3 contracts of September Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.131
Stop: 1.1160 risking $280
Target: 1.2863
Weekly Comment: The Euro rallied strongly on Wednesday after the weak US inflation data but finished the day well off the highs after the Fed raised rates posting a candle with a long upper shadow. Prices then fell sharply on Thursday on reports of weaker economic growth for the Eurozone but held above the recent lows and bounced back on Friday to finish the week only slightly lower.
SIL – Silver (1,000)
Trade: Short 2 contracts of July Silver (1,000)
Entry Price: 16.90
Exit Price: 17.16
Weekly Comment: Silver continued lower early in the week before rallying sharply on Wednesday after the weak inflation data. I exited during this rally. Prices resumed the downtrend to end the week after the Fed raised rates. If prices can break the 61.8% retracement level I may look at re-entering the position.
ZC – Corn
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Corn
Entry Price: $4.035
Stop: $3.925 risking $550
Target: $4.62
Weekly Comment: Corn had a very volatile week. Prices fell sharply on Monday engulfing the prior weeks rally but held above the top of the recent range. Prices bounced back on Wednesday before turning lower and finishing the day back at the top of the range. Prices were much lower on Thursday trading back down into the range before rallying to finish the day back above the range. My stop was triggered on an intra-day basis on Thursday but not on a closing basis. Prices then rallied on Friday to finish the week on a positive note.
6C – Canadian Dollar
Trade: Long 3 contracts of Micro Canadian Dollar
Entry Price: $0.7592
Stop: $0.7445 risking $441
Target: $0.77
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices surpassed the 200 SMA after a long downtrend.
Fundamental: Comments from the Central Bank in relation to a strengthening economy led to the break out.
Weekly Comment: The Loonie rallied strongly on Monday and Tuesday surpassing the 200 SMA. Prices came back down to test the 200 SMA on Thursday but held and then rallied on Friday to post a new closing high for the move.
RC – Robusta Coffee
Trade: Short 1 contract of July Robusta Coffee
Entry Price: $2025
Stop: $2087 risking $620
Target: $1805
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices intersected with the 50 SMA for the first time since crossing down through the 200 SMA.
Fundamental: Favourable weather conditions are increasing expectations of a larger next crop.
Weekly Comment: Robusta rallied up to the 50 SMA on Tuesday for the first time since it crossed down through the 200 SMA. Prices then rallied sharply on Thursday after reports of short term supply issues finishing the day right near my stop level. I gave the trade one more day and prices rallied again on Friday but finished the day off the highs and closed back below the 200 SMA.
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
CT – Cotton
Cotton broke down through the 200 SMA on Monday. I shifted my attention to the new crop December contract which did not break down through the 200 SMA until Wednesday. I had an order in the market on Thursday just above the previous days close but it wasn’t filled as prices continued lower on Thursday without me.
GF – Feeder Cattle
The Feeders continued lower this week trading down through the 50 SMA but held above the recent low and traded back up to the 50 SMA to finish the week.
6L – Brazilian Real
The Real dipped below the 61.8% retracement level early in the week but quickly regained the ground above this level to finish the week practically unchanged.
ZW – Wheat
Wheat surpassed the 200 SMA on Thursday. I tried to enter at the open on Friday but prices gapped above my entry level and continued higher without me. Prices finished the week just above the 61.8% retracement level and if prices can surpass this level I may look at entering a long position.
Crude Oil was higher early in the week before trading down sharply again on Wednesday after the storage data trading back down to the recent lows to finish the week.
GC – Gold
Gold was initially higher this week before falling after the Fed raised rates finishing the week back down near the 200 SMA.
DX – US Dollar Index
The US Dollar was lower early in the week before finding support at the 61.8% retracement level and bouncing to finish the week only slightly lower.
ES – S&P 500
The S&P 500 was lower on Thursday and Friday but found support at the 20 SMA.
ZN – 10 Year Note
The Notes rallied strongly on Wednesday after the weak inflation data posting a new high for the move before dipping back later in the week.
Below are my comments on my open positions and closed trades.
6E – Euro
Trade: Long 3 contracts of September Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.131
Stop: 1.1160 risking $280
Target: 1.2863
Weekly Comment: The Euro held above the recent lows on Tuesday and moved higher later in the week trading back up to the 20 SMA.
SIL – Silver (1,000)
Trade: Short 1 contracts of July Silver (1,000)
Entry Price: 16.49
Stop: 16.84 Risking $350
Target: 15.02
Weekly Comment: Silver broke down through the 61.8% retracement level on Monday and I re-entered a short position. Prices attempted to trade back above this level on Thursday and Friday but were unable to close above the level on both occasions.
ZC – Corn
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Corn
Entry Price: $4.035
Stop: $3.925 risking $550
Target: $4.62
Weekly Comment: Corn prices collapsed this week trading back down through the 200 SMA. I stuck with the position on Thursday to give it every chance to bounce from the bottom of the range and was then tied up on Friday and didn’t get a chance to exit which going to end up a costly mistake.
6C – Canadian Dollar
Trade: Long 3 contracts of Micro Canadian Dollar
Entry Price: $0.7592
Stop: $0.7445 risking $441
Target: $0.77
Weekly Comment: The Loonie re-tested the 200 SMA multiple times this week but held above the level each time.
RC – Robusta Coffee
Trade: Short 1 contract of July Robusta Coffee
Entry Price: $2025
Stop: $2087 risking $620
Target: $1805
Weekly Comment: Robusta prices fell early in the week trading all the way back down to the 61.8% retracement of the recent range on Friday before bouncing strongly. Given the volatility blow out on Friday I will be monitoring this trade closely early next week and exiting on any further strength.
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
6B – British Pound
The Pound held the recent lows and the 200 SMA early in the week before rising to finish the week only slightly lower.
CT – Cotton
Cotton continued its bearish momentum posting lower closes each day except Friday.
6L – Brazilian Real
The Real traded back down through the 61.8% retracement level this week but the price action has not been impulsive enough to trigger an entry.
ZW – Wheat
Wheat surpassed the 61.8% retracement early in the week but the price action was messy and did not warrant entering a position. Prices quickly traded back down through this level later in the week
