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Crude Oil rallied sharply on Wednesday after the storage data. I was tempted to enter a short position on Thursday near the 61.8% retracement level and falling 20 SMA but with the strength shown on Wednesday I decided against it. Prices continued higher on Thursday and Friday trading back up towards the 200 SMA.
GC – Gold
Gold drifted lower this week trading back down towards the 40 SMA.
DX – US Dollar Index
The US Dollar continued lower on Monday but finished off the lows posting a candle with a lower shadow. The dollar rallied on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday trading back up to the short and medium term moving averages.
ES – S&P 500
The S&P 500 traded down below the 40 SMA during the overnight session on Monday but closed back at this level posting a candle with a lower shadow. Prices continued higher for the remainder of the week trading back up to the 20 SMA.
Below is my updated tracking sheet for March with the key metrics I am currently following.
Another very quiet month of trading in March with only two trades. I continue to grind through a drawdown period that is now moving into its fourth month. March was a month of missed opportunities with solid trades missed in Sugar, Feeder Cattle and the Mexican Peso which could have turned the month around. The first two of those trades were the result of bad luck rather than trading mistakes, so with the exception of the Mexican Peso trade where I entered the wrong contract and then shook myself out, there was not much more I could have done for the month. I am happy I have been sticking with my discipline and not chasing trades and I’m sure a solid winner is just around the corner.
- Entered a short position in Soybean Meal
- Exited my short position in the 10 Year Note
Below are my comments on my open positions and closed trades.
ZN – 10 Year Note
Trade: Short 2 contracts of June 10 Year Notes
Entry Price: 124 7/32
Exit Price: 125 6.5/32
Weekly Comment: The Notes were sharply higher on Monday trading back up to the top of the recent range and consolidating the break above the 100 SMA so exited half my position at the close. Prices were lower on Tuesday and Wednesday but recovered on Wednesday to close back up at the top of the range and I exited the other half of my position at the close on Wednesday. Prices were sharply higher on Friday in response to the Syria bombings and the weak employment report but reversed strongly into the close to post a candle with a long upper shadow and a close near the low indicating a possible short term top.
6N – New Zealand Dollar
Trade: Short 1 contract of June New Zealand Dollar
Entry Price: 70.30
Stop: 70.92 risking $620
Target: 65.22
Weekly Comment: The Kiwi continued lower this week trading down through the 61.8% retracement of the recent range and closing the week at new lows for the move. I may look to add to the position next week.
ZM – Soybean Meal
Trade: Short 1 contract of December Soybean Meal
Entry Price: 314.20
Stop: 320.20 risking $600
Target: 298.50
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices traded back up to the midpoint of the breakout candle below the 200 SMA which also coincided with the 61.8% retracement of the recent range.
Fundamental: A large old crop carry out combined with expected record planting of soybeans in the new crop are driving the soy complex lower.
Weekly Comment: Soybean Meal attempted to move higher on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday but ran into selling each time posting candles with upper shadows. I had an order around the midpoint of last Friday’s candle and this was triggered on Tuesday. Prices were lower to finish the week posting a new low for the move.
Below are my comments on other opportunities I am watching.
6M – Mexican Peso
The Peso was mostly sideways this week but posted another higher close for the week. I am still looking for any corrective price action to enter this trade.
ZC – Corn
Corn rallied strongly to start the week but was unable to hold onto the gains by the close posting a candle with an upper shadow. Prices continued lower for the remainder of the week trading back down to the 200 SMA.
SB – Sugar
Sugar was lower early in the week trading below the 61.8% retracement of the entire uptrend but rallied late in the week to close back above this level to finish the week only slightly lower.
CC - Cocoa
Cocoa traded down to the 20 SMA on Monday. I had an order on Monday waiting at 2059 with the low of the day at 2060. I continued to follow the 20 SMA up on Tuesday and Wednesday but prices didn’t trade low enough to trigger my order. With this trade setup I expect prices to bounce strongly after touching the 20 SMA so with this not happening I decided to pull my order on Thursday and move on. Price gapped lower on Friday down through the 20 SMA closing back down at the 40 SMA.
GF – Feeder Cattle
Feeder Cattle was lower early in the week but found support at the 20 SMA and rallied to finish the week above the 61.8% retracement of the recent corrective range. If prices can surpass this level with impulsiveness I may look at taking a long position.
CT – Cotton
Cotton was sharply lower on Monday trading down though the short and medium term moving averages. Prices continued lower for the remainder of the week trading down to the 200 SMA. Prices may find support at this level and I’ll look at how prices react on Monday before considering a long position.
6A – Australian Dollar
The Aussie was lower this week trading down through the 200 SMA on Friday and posting a bearish full bodied candle. This setup is very similar to my recent trade in the Kiwi and may look at entering a short trade in the Aussie rather than adding to my position in the Kiwi next week.
Crude Oil was strongly higher this week trading back up through the 200 SMA but finished the week uncertainly posting a candle with a long upper shadow.
GC – Gold
Gold was higher on Friday after the Syria bombings but found resistance at the 200 SMA posting a candle with a long upper shadow.
DX – US Dollar Index
The US Dollar was higher on Friday posting a bullish full bodied candle. I’m looking for prices to surpass the 61.8% retracement of the recent corrective range for confirmation the uptrend has resumed.
ES – S&P 500
The S&P 500 continues to hang around the 40 SMA but the 20 SMA is in the process of crossing down through the 40 SMA which could lead to lower prices.
Trade: Short 1 contract of June New Zealand Dollar
Entry Price: 70.30
Stop: 70.92 risking $620
Target: 65.22
Weekly Comment: The Kiwi made another new low for the move during the week but gapped higher and finished towards the high on Thursday after comments from Trump about the US dollar and may have changed trend here in the short term.
ZM – Soybean Meal
Trade: Short 1 contract of December Soybean Meal
Entry Price: 314.20
Stop: 320.20 risking $600
Target: 298.50
Weekly Comment: Soybean Meal rallied strongly on Wednesday and Thursday regaining the ground above the 200 SMA. My stop was triggered by the close on Thursday and I will be exiting the position next week.
CT – Cotton
Trade: Long 1 contract of July Cotton
Entry Price: 314.20
Stop: 320.20 risking $600
Target: 298.50
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices intersected with the 200 SMA for the first time since the start of the uptrend.
Fundamental: Strong demand from China has been leading price increases recently but expectations of the highest crop plantings in five years has been causing price weakness in the short term.
Weekly Comment: Cotton bounced strongly from the 200 SMA on Monday. I had an order near the midpoint of the breakout candle on Tuesday and was lucky enough to get filled at the low of the day. Prices finished the week strongly posting a bullish full bodied candle.
Below are my comments on other opportunities I am watching.
ZC – Corn
Corn bounced strongly from the 200 SMA on Monday and continued higher for the rest of the week finishing at the 61.8% retracement of the recent range.
GF – Feeder Cattle
Feeder Cattle gapped higher on Monday and continued higher for the rest of the week making new highs for the move and not providing me with any opportunity to get set.
6B – British Pound
The Cable is approaching the 200 SMA after a long basing pattern in the form of a head and shoulders bottom which is causing the 200 SMA to flatten. I may look at taking a long position if prices can surpass the 200 SMA.
Crude Oil was higher again this week but was unable to surpass the 61.8% retracement of the recent range.
GC – Gold
Gold was higher again this week on geopolitical tension surpassing the 200 SMA and trading up towards the 61.8% retracement of the recent range.
DX – US Dollar Index
The US Dollar was lower this week trading back down below the medium term moving averages but finding support at the 20 SMA.
ES – S&P 500
The S&P 500 was weaker again this week breaking down below the medium term moving averages.
ZN – 10 Year Note
The 10 Year Note was sharply higher this week on geopolitical tension trading up out of the recent range. If prices continue higher up to the 200 SMA I may look at reinstating my short position.
- Exited my short position in Soybean Meal
- Entered a partial long position in the British Pound
Below are my comments on my open positions and closed trades for the week.
6N – New Zealand Dollar
Trade: Short 1 contract of June New Zealand Dollar
Entry Price: 70.30
Stop: 70.92 risking $620
Target: 65.22
Weekly Comment: The Kiwi traded in a small range this week with any attempts to rally contained by both the 61.8% retracement level and the falling 50 SMA.
ZM – Soybean Meal
Trade: Short 1 contract of December Soybean Meal
Entry Price: 314.20
Exit Price: 320.30
Weekly Comment: I exited the trade during the overnight session on Sunday. Prices were lower for the week trading back down through the 200 SMA but were unable to break the 61.8% retracement of the recent range.
CT – Cotton
Trade: Long 1 contract of July Cotton
Entry Price: 314.20
Stop: 320.20 risking $600
Target: 298.50
Weekly Comment: Cotton rallied strongly this week trading up through the 61.8% retracement of the recent range on heavy rains that may affect plantings.
6B – British Pound
Trade: Long 2 contracts of June Micro British Pound Average Entry Price: 1.2836
Stop: 1.2497 risking $423.75
Target: 1.52
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices surpassed the 200 SMA after a long downtrend.
Fundamental: An early election has been called to provide certainty during Brexit negotiations.
Weekly Comment: The Cable rallied strongly on Tuesday surpassing the 200 SMA. I added 1 contract on the close on Tuesday and then added another contract on the weakness on Wednesday. I will continue to add to the position on any further weakness up to a total position of 5 contracts.
Crude Oil was sharply lower on Wednesday trading back down through the 200 SMA. Prices were sharply lower again on Friday trading down through the 61.8% retracement of the recent range but recovered before the close to finish the day slightly higher and post a candle with a long lower shadow.
GC – Gold
Gold held above the 200 SMA this week but was unable to surpass the 61.8% retracement of the recent range.
DX – US Dollar Index
The US Dollar was lower this week trading back down towards the 200 SMA.
ES – S&P 500
The S&P 500 traded in a small range this week but continues to hold the medium term moving averages.
ZN – 10 Year Note
The Notes rallied up to the 200 SMA on Tuesday and found resistance at this level trading lower for the remainder of the week. I originally had an order at the 200 SMA but pulled it after entering my position in the Pound as I had no room for any further positions.
