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Below are my comments on other opportunities I am watching.
ZW – Wheat
Wheat traded back above the 200 SMA on Monday but posted a candle with an upper shadow. Prices traded back down through the 200 SMA on Tuesday but closed back above this level posting a candle with a lower shadow. Wheat broke the 200 SMA on Wednesday posting a bearish full bodied candle and continued lower for the remainder of the week closing below support and the 50 SMA.
ZC – Corn
Corn traded above and below the 61.8% retracement level on Monday but closed back above the level before breaking this level on Tuesday and continuing lower for the remainder of the week trading back down to the 200 SMA after the release of negative supply and demand reports on Thursday.
SB – Sugar
Sugar fell sharply on Monday trading back down to the 61.8% retracement level. Prices continued sharply lower on Tuesday trading down through the 61.8% retracement level. The close on Tuesday was outside my risk tolerance levels so I entered an order on Wednesday near the midpoint of Tuesday’s candle at 18.74 and was unlucky not to get filled on Thursday when prices rallied up to 18.73 before turning lower again.
GF – Feeder Cattle
Feeder Cattle regained the ground above the 200 SMA on Thursday and rallied strongly on Friday to re-consolidate the break above this level. If prices can continue higher and surpass the 61.8% retracement of the recent range at 127.91 I may look to re-enter a long position.
SI - Silver
Silver was lower this week making a lower close each day this week. The 61.8% retracement levels of the major range and the recent range are both in near proximity and if prices can break these levels it may offer a good short opportunity.
Crude Oil fell sharply on Wednesday trading down through the 200 SMA and continued lower on Thursday and Friday closing just below the 61.8% retracement level of the recent range. If prices can break this level it may offer a good short opportunity.
GC – Gold
Gold traded down through the moving averages on Tuesday and continued lower for the remainder of the week trading back down towards the 61.8% retracement levels.
DX – US Dollar Index
The US Dollar traded up to test the 61.8% retracement level early in the week but failed again from this level falling sharply on Friday and finishing the week with a bearish full bodied candle.
ES – S&P 500
The S&P 500 drifted lower this week before finding support at the 20 SMA and bouncing to finish the week only slightly lower.
Trade: Short 2 contracts of June 10 Year Notes
Entry Price: 124 7/32
Stop: 132 1.5/32 risking $0
Target: 119 24.5/32
Weekly Comment: The Notes were sharply higher on Wednesday as the Fed raised rates but did not indicate a faster pace for future hikes. Prices traded back above the 61.8% retracement level and back within the recent range but were unable to surpass the 50 SMA.
Below are my comments on other opportunities I am watching.
6M – Mexican Peso
The Peso was sharply higher on Wednesday as the US Dollar fell against most major currencies. I will be looking to re-enter this trade on any price weakness and ideally back towards the 20 SMA.
HG – Copper
Copper continued higher this week after finding support at the 100 SMA last week. Prices regained the ground above the 50 SMA on Thursday and Friday but is still below the 61.8% retracement of the recent range.
ZW – Wheat
Wheat continued lower on Monday but held the 61.8% retracement of the recent uptrend. Prices bounced from this level to finish the week only slightly lower.
ZC – Corn
Corn traded down through the 200 SMA on Monday but rallied later in the week to regain the ground above this level.
SB – Sugar
Sugar traded in a tight until Friday when prices initially fell sharply before recovering late in the day to finish only slightly lower and post a candle with a long lower shadow. I’m still waiting to see higher prices to enter a short position ideally up towards the 20 SMA.
GF – Feeder Cattle
Feeder Cattle closed above the 61.8% retracement mark on Wednesday but did not penetrate the level far enough to trigger an entry signal. Prices gapped higher on Thursday and continued higher on Friday without giving me a chance to get set.
SI - Silver
Silver traded down to the 61.8% retracement level shortly before the Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday before rallying strongly from this level and trading back up above the 100 SMA.
6N – New Zealand Dollar
The Kiwi was sharply higher on Wednesday trading back towards the 61.8% retracement of the recent range and back towards the falling 20 SMA. If continue up towards these levels it may be a good short opportunity.
Crude Oil re-tested the 61.8% retracement level during the overnight session on Tuesday but fell sharply from this level. Prices finished the day off the lows posting a candle with a lower shadow and then gapped higher on Wednesday opening back up at the 61.8% retracement level. Prices tried to rally above the 61.8% on Thursday but were unable to surpass the $50 level and closed back at the 61.8% retracement level. Prices finished the week with an indecisive candle and if they continue lower from here I will look to enter a short position.
GC – Gold
Gold rallied strongly on Wednesday after the Fed did not signal a faster rise in interest rates and regained the ground above the short and medium term moving averages.
DX – US Dollar Index
The US Dollar fell sharply on Wednesday after the Fed interest rate decision and finished the week below the 100 SMA. There is a good chance prices will continue lower down to the 200 SMA from here and if it does I may look at buying.
ES – S&P 500
The S&P 500 continued to find support at the 20 SMA this week rallying on Wednesday after the Fed decision but finishing the week with a couple of indecisive candles.
- Entered a short position in the New Zealand Dollar
Below are my comments on open positions.
ZN – 10 Year Note
Trade: Short 2 contracts of June 10 Year Notes
Entry Price: 124 7/32
Stop: 132 1.5/32 risking $0
Target: 119 24.5/32
Weekly Comment: The Notes continued higher this week closing above the 100 SMA. I don’t view the price action as a break of the 100 SMA as yet but if this does occur I’m likely to exit the position.
6N – New Zealand Dollar
Trade: Short 1 contract of June New Zealand Dollar
Entry Price: 70.30
Stop: 70.92 risking $620
Target: 65.22
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices traded back up to the underside of the 61.8% retracement of the recent uptrend and intersected with the 20 SMA for the first time since it crossed the 40 SMA. Prices are also trading below a 200 SMA which is in the process of turning over.
Fundamental: The New Zealand central bank left interest rates on hold this week and continues to talk about wanting a lower dollar.
Weekly Comment: The Kiwi attempted to trade above the 61.8% retracement and 20 SMA on Monday and Tuesday but found selling on both occasions posting candles with upper shadows. Based on this price action I entered a short trade at the 20 SMA on Wednesday. Prices were lower on Friday breaking the 70 cent level but found support and closed the day slightly higher posting a candle with a lower shadow.
Below are my comments on other opportunities I am watching.
6M – Mexican Peso
The Peso continued higher this week making new highs for the move. I am looking for any corrective price action to take a long position.
HG – Copper
Copper traded back down to the 100 SMA early in the week and held this level again.
ZW – Wheat
Wheat was lower this week breaking through the 61.8% retracement of the recent uptrend again.
ZC – Corn
Corn was lower this week failing the 200 SMA again.
SB – Sugar
Sugar was lower again this week but rallied late in the week to finish the week only slightly lower. If prices continue higher up to the 20 SMA I may look at entering a short position.
GF – Feeder Cattle
Feeder Cattle rallied sharply higher on Wednesday but was unable to finish the week at the highs. I may look at establishing a long position on any corrective price action.
CC - Cocoa
Cocoa rallied sharply higher on Monday and then traded sideways for the remainder of the week. The 20 SMA is about to cross the 40 SMA and I may look at establishing a long position if prices drift back towards the 20 SMA.
Crude Oil traded below the 61.8% retracement level on Monday and Tuesday. I had an order to enter a short position above the market on Wednesday but did not get a fill. Prices rallied strongly off the lows on Wednesday posting a candle with a lower shadow but did not follow through to the upside late in the week. I will be looking to establish a short position if prices can move higher again this week.
GC – Gold
Gold continued higher this week trading above the short and medium term moving averages but is still below the 200 SMA.
DX – US Dollar Index
The US Dollar continued lower this week trading back towards the recent lows and the 200 SMA.
ES – S&P 500
The S&P 500 had its first major corrective day in some time on Tuesday but found support at the rising 40 SMA.
Trade: Short 2 contracts of June 10 Year Notes
Entry Price: 124 7/32
Stop: 132 1.5/32 risking $0
Target: 119 24.5/32
Weekly Comment: The Notes continued higher on Monday but finished off the highs creating enough doubt as to whether the price action was a break of the 100 SMA to stick with my position. The Notes then traded up and down within the same range for the remainder of the week.
6N – New Zealand Dollar
Trade: Short 1 contract of June New Zealand Dollar
Entry Price: 70.30
Stop: 70.92 risking $620
Target: 65.22
Weekly Comment: The Kiwi re-tested the underside of the 61.8% retracement level on Monday and held posting a candle with an upper shadow. Prices moved lower for the remainder of the week closing below the 70 cent level this week.
Below are my comments on other opportunities I am watching.
6M – Mexican Peso
The Peso corrected slightly on Monday and Tuesday before rallying on Wednesday to undo the damage. The Peso finished the week with two uncertain candles.
ZS – Soybeans / ZM – Soybean Meal
I was having a good look at all the grain markets coming into the prospective plantings report on Friday and came across the new crop soybeans chart breaking below the 200 SMA after an uptrend. I was a couple of days late to Soybeans with the pattern already completed but the Soybean Meal chart was in the process of completing the same pattern when I checked on Thursday so my focus coming into the report on Friday was Soybean Meal. Soybean Meal prices closed sharply lower on Friday after the report but was slightly too low for my risk management parameters. I will be looking to enter on any correction next week.
ZW – Wheat
Wheat had a volatility blow out on Friday after the report but finished with an indecisive candle. I’m not looking at any potential trades in Wheat at the moment.
ZC – Corn
Corn surpassed the 200 SMA again on Friday on strong volume posting an impulsive candle. I will be looking at long position in Corn next week.
SB – Sugar
Sugar rallied up towards the 20 SMA on Tuesday before reversing strongly from this level to finish the day lower posting a candle with a long upper shadow. I had an order just below the 20 SMA on Tuesday but missed out again by 3 ticks. Prices continued lower for the remainder of the week posting new lows for the move.
CC - Cocoa
Cocoa traded lower this week trading back towards the 20 SMA. I had an order just above the 20 SMA on Thursday and Friday but have not been filled yet.
