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Below are my comments on other opportunities I am watching.
CT – Cotton
Cotton was higher on Monday before reversing sharply and trading lower for the remainder of the week. Cotton is coming back within the buying region but with the negative price action this week I am reluctant to take a position.
I have issues with my continuous chart after the contract roll this week so the chart below is the May contract only chart.
GF – Feeder Cattle
Feeder Cattle rallied on Tuesday to regain the ground above the 200 SMA and held above this level for the remainder of the week. I want to see prices surpass the 61.8% retracement level of the recent range at 1.2745 before thinking about entering a position.
SB – Sugar
Sugar held around the 200 SMA all week and the trend is not clear at this stage.
HE – Lean Hogs
Hogs were lower on Monday trading below the 61.8% retracement level but quickly traded back up through this level on Tuesday and remained above it for the remainder of the week. The medium term averages are now close to the price action and I may look to enter a long position at the first intersection with these averages.
Below are my comments on my open positions for the week.
ZN – 10 Year Note
Trade 1: Short 2 contracts of March 10 Year Notes
Entry Price: 124 4.5/32
Stop: 127 22.5/32 risking $0
Target: 122 14/32
Weekly Comment: The Notes continued higher this week rallying strongly on Friday to close a new recent high. If prices can surpass the nearby 100 SMA I will be looking to exit this trade.
HG – Copper
Trade: Long 1 contract of May Copper
Entry Price: $2.7140
Stop: $2.6380 risking $0
Target: Short term $2.96, Long term $3.72
Weekly Comment: Copper was higher early in the week before collapsing on Thursday when I was rolling the position. The close on Thursday was very close to my breakeven stop but it didn’t get hit and prices rallied on Friday to keep me in the trade for now.
ZW – Wheat
Trade 1: Long 1 contract of July Wheat
Entry Price: $4.5525
Stop: $4.6775 risking $0
Target: $5
Trade 2: Long 2 contracts of July Wheat Average Entry Price: $4.75
Stop: $4.6775 risking $725
Target: $5.64
Weekly Comment: Wheat continued lower early in the week before rallying on Wednesday and Thursday back up to the 200 SMA. I tried to exit the first trade at the 200 SMA on Thursday but prices rose one tick short of my order. Prices reversed from the 200 SMA and finished the week on a bearish note back down at the 20 SMA. If prices don’t rally on Monday I’ll be exiting this trade.
ZC – Corn
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Corn
Entry Price: $3.9975
Stop: $3.8975 risking $500
Target: $4.625
Weekly Comment: Corn continued lower on Monday before rallying back up to the 61.8% retracement level where prices failed again and trading back down to the 40 SMA. My stop has not been triggered yet but it looks like this trade will be a loser.
Below are my comments on other opportunities I am watching.
GF – Feeder Cattle
Feeder Cattle held above the 200 SMA all week and then crashed back down through it on Friday posting a bearish full bodied candle.
SB – Sugar
Sugar traded down through the 200 SMA on Thursday and continued lower on Friday consolidating the move. Any strength next week good provide a good short opportunity.
HE – Lean Hogs
Hogs prices crashed lower this week but held above the 200 SMA and rallied on Friday to finish the week on a positive note. If prices trade down through the 200 SMA I may look at taking a short position.
Below is my updated tracking sheet for February with the key metrics I am currently following.
Another fairly quiet month of trading in February with only 6 trades. It was the second month in a row where I had solid unrealised gains built up during the month wiped out quickly at the end of the month resulting in negative month by the end. There were no major issues with my trading during the month apart from the Wheat trade which was too big and poorly managed with the majority of the losses resulting from the natural fluctuation of the markets in my long term positions in Copper and the 10 Year Notes. February further confirmed that markets are range bound with few opportunities for trend following and I will only be looking for strong setups and reducing risk as much as possible moving forward until signs that markets are trending again are seen.
- Stopped out of my long position in Wheat
- Stopped out of my long position in Corn
- Rolled my short position in the 10 Year Notes from March to June
Below are my comments on my open positions for the week.
ZN – 10 Year Note
Trade: Short 2 contracts of June 10 Year Notes
Entry Price: 124 7/32
Stop: 132 1.5/32 risking $0
Target: 119 24.5/32
Weekly Comment: The Notes failed from the top of the recent range on Monday and continued lower for the remainder of the week with continued strong economic data and hawkish comments from a number of Feb members. The Notes finished the week back at the bottom of the range and if prices continue lower and trade down through the 61.8% retracement level at 123 5/32 I will look to add to the position.
HG – Copper
Trade: Long 1 contract of May Copper
Entry Price: $2.7140
Stop: $2.6564 risking $0
Target: Short term $2.95, Long term $3.70
Weekly Comment: Copper continued higher to start the week but was unable to surpass the 61.8% retracement of the recent range falling back to the 40 SMA and finishing the week only slightly higher.
ZW – Wheat
Trade 1: Long 1 contract of July Wheat
Entry Price: $4.5525
Exit Price: $4.54
Trade Comment: I paid the price for not exiting last week at the 200 SMA as I intended. Holding out for that one extra tick resulted in a scratch trade as opposed to a winning trade.
Trade 2: Long 2 contracts of July Wheat Average Entry Price: $4.75
Exit Price: $4.54
Trade Comment: This trade was sized too big and I held onto it for too long resulting in a trade outside my risk tolerance levels.
Weekly Comment: Wheat continued lower on Monday trading down through the 40 SMA and support and I exited the entire position. Prices then rallied strongly on Tuesday on rumours of executive orders to be signed which are beneficial to the grain markets before falling into the close to post a candle with a long upper shadow. Prices rallied strongly again on Wednesday trading up to the 200 SMA and posting a bullish full bodied candle. Prices were unable to surpass the 200 SMA at the end of the week but if Wheat can break this level I may look at having one more shot at this trade.
ZC – Corn
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Corn
Entry Price: $3.9975
Exit Price: $3.89
Weekly Comment: Corn continued lower on Monday triggering my stop. Prices then rallied strongly on Tuesday on rumours of executive orders to be signed which are beneficial to the grain markets before falling into the close to post a candle with a long upper shadow. Prices rallied strongly again on Wednesday closing above the 61.8% retracement mark and posting a bullish full bodied candle. Prices struggled around this level for the remainder of the week but if Corn can break this level I may look at having one more shot at this trade.
Below are my comments on other opportunities I am watching.
CT – Cotton
Cotton was higher Wednesday but then posted a strong reversal candle on Thursday. Prices didn’t follow through on Friday posting another bullish candle to finish the week. Cotton continues to hold above the 40 SMA and the 61.8% retracement level.
SB – Sugar
Sugar fell sharply on Monday trading down to the 61.8% retracement of the recent range. Prices bounced from this level to finish the week only slightly lower. I may look at a short position if prices trade up to the moving averages or if prices continue lower through the 61.8% retracement level.
GF – Feeder Cattle
Feeder Cattle rallied on Monday and Tuesday to regain the ground above the 200 SMA but quickly fell back below this level later in the week.
HE – Lean Hogs
Hogs grinded higher all week but were unable to surpass the medium term averages and posted a bearish full bodied candle to finish the week. If prices continue lower down through the 200 SMA I may look at entering a short position.
6M – Mexican Peso
The Peso rallied strongly on Friday to close above both the 200 SMA and the 61.8% retracement of the recent range which could be the start of a major uptrend.
Crude Oil fell sharply on Thursday but held at the 100 SMA and remain within the current trading range.
GC – Gold
Gold posted two indecisive doji candles to start the week and then fell sharply to finish the week trading back down towards the 40 and 100 SMA’s which are converging.
DX – US Dollar Index
The US Dollar traded higher on Wednesday and Thursday closing above the 61.8% retracement of the recent range. Prices fell back below the 61.8% retracement level to finish the week. If prices can surpass this level it may be a sign that the uptrend is resuming.
ES – S&P 500
The S&P 500 rallied sharply on Wednesday and continues to post new all-time highs on its way to the initial target of 2,433.
- Exited my long position in Copper
- Entered and exited a long position in the Mexican Peso
Below are my comments on my open positions and closed trades for the week.
ZN – 10 Year Note
Trade: Short 2 contracts of June 10 Year Notes
Entry Price: 124 7/32
Stop: 132 1.5/32 risking $0
Target: 119 24.5/32
Weekly Comment: The Notes continued lower this week trading down through the recent range and the 61.8% retracement level. I had an order to sell on Friday at 123 4/32 which turned out to be the high of the day but I didn’t get a fill. I will continue to look to add to my short position next week but not until after the FOMC meeting.
HG – Copper
Trade: Long 1 contract of May Copper
Entry Price: $2.7140
Exit Price: $2.6340
Trade Comment: Should have exited a day earlier.
Weekly Comment: Copper continued lower on Monday trading down to the 50 SMA. I thought about exiting at the close on Monday but decided to give the trade one more day to see if it bounced from this level. Prices continued lower on Tuesday closing below my desired stop level. I had an order to exit at $2.6340 in the overnight session on Wednesday to see if I could exit closer to my desired stop level and had some luck with prices trading up to $2.6345 triggering my exit. Prices reversed lower again during the day session on Wednesday and continued lower on Thursday trading down to the 100 SMA but bouncing from this level to post a candle with a lower shadow. Prices were higher to finish the week but could not close back above the 61.8% retracement of the recent range.
6M – Mexican Peso
Trade: Long 1 contract of March Mexican Peso
Entry Price: 50.82
Stop: 49.45 risking $690
Exit Price: 50.60
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices surpassed the 200 SMA after a long downtrend and also surpassed the 61.8% retracement of the recent range.
Fundamental: The Peso has been strengthening since the tone from the US has softened and on rumours of the Mexican central bank supporting the currency.
Trade Comment: I forgot to look at the expiry dates and entered the March contract on Wednesday which has its first notice day on Monday. When I found out on Thursday I looked to exit the trade but held out to try and get a price as close to break even as possible. When prices rallied on Friday I took the opportunity to exit before the release of the NFP report resulting in a very small loss.
Weekly Comment: The Peso consolidated the break above the 200 SMA and the 61.8% retracement level on Tuesday and I entered the trade on Wednesday when prices traded back down to test the 61.8% retracement level. Prices continued lower trading back down through the 200 SMA on Thursday before bouncing on Friday to regain the ground above that level. If prices continue higher early next week I will look to re-enter this market in the June contract.
