Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
I was stopped out of my Lean Hogs position and entered a long position in Mini Crude Oil today.
GE – Eurodollar
Trade: Short 10 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar Average Entry Price: 99.065
Risk: 99.10 risking $750
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90
Daily Comment: Eurodollars finished slightly lower and remain in the recent range.
QO – Mini Gold
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,258.50
Risk: $1,258.50 risking $0
Target: Long Term $1,619
Daily Comment: Gold traded both higher and lower today posting an indecisive candle.
HE – Lean Hogs
Trade: Short 2 contracts of April Lean Hogs
Average Entry Price: $0.5655
Exit Price: $0.578875
Trade Comment: I should have scratched the trade on Friday and not let it turn into a losing trade.
Daily Comment: Hogs gapped higher on the open and traded both above and below the opening price but did not fill the gap.
QM – Mini Crude Oil
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Mini Crude Oil
Entry Price: $49.90
Risk: $48.675 risking $612.50
Target: $63.15
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices intersected with the 20 SMA for the first time since the 20 SMA and the 40 SMA crossed and the angle of the 20 SMA is steep. Prices are also traded trading above the rising 200 SMA and the 61.8% retracement of the recent range.
Fundamental: Plans by OPEC to cut production as well as strong weekly storage draws in the US have been driving prices higher.
Daily Comment: Oil was lower during the session but bounced strongly from near the 20 SMA to finish the day only slightly lower and post a candle with a long lower shadow.
Below are the comments on the opportunities I’m watching.
ZL - Soybean Oil
Soybean Oil surged higher today completing the head and shoulders pattern. I looked at buying 1 contract at the close but hesitated with prices traded off the day’s highs. I will continue to monitor this trade closely.
NG – Natural Gas
The fallout in Natural Gas continued today with prices trading sharply lower again posting another bearish full bodied candle.
DX – US Dollar Index
The US Dollar was lower during the overnight session before reversing to trade higher making new highs for the move but closed the day practically unchanged posting an indecisive candle.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I re-entered a small long position in Soybean Oil today.
GE – Eurodollar
Trade: Short 10 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar Average Entry Price: 99.065
Risk: 99.10 risking $750
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90
Daily Comment: Eurodollars finished slightly lower again today and is now back near the bottom of the current range.
QO – Mini Gold
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,258.50
Risk: $1,258.50 risking $0
Target: Long Term $1,619
Daily Comment: Gold rallied strongly today closing back at the 200 SMA and posting a bullish full bodied candle.
QM – Mini Crude Oil
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Mini Crude Oil
Entry Price: $49.90
Risk: $48.675 risking $612.50
Target: $63.15
Daily Comment: Oil was higher during the overnight session before reversing to trade lower and fell sharply into the close to finish back at the 61.8% retracement level and post a bearish candle.
ZL - Soybean Oil
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Soybean Oil
Entry Price: $0.3575
Risk: $0.3497 risking $470
Target: $0.4315
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices surpassed the neckline of a potential 2 year + head and shoulders bottom pattern.
Fundamental: Supply issues with competing vegetable oils have been driving Soybean Oil higher.
Daily Comment: Soybean Oil opened higher and then faded for the rest of the day of the day to finish lower and post a bearish candle. I used the weakness to buy 1 contract to get in the trade and will monitor the trade closely before adding any further leverage.
Below are the comments on the opportunities I’m watching.
HE – Lean Hogs
Lean Hogs were sharply higher today posting a bullish full bodied candle and closing back near the recent highs. The falling 40 SMA is now in close vicinity and may be a good area to have one more shot at the short side.
HG – Copper
Copper rallied strongly today trading back up to the 200 SMA and posting a bullish full bodied candle.
Trade: Short 10 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar Average Entry Price: 99.065
Risk: 99.10 risking $750
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90
Daily Comment: Eurodollars continued lower today and is now back at the bottom of the current range.
QO – Mini Gold
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,258.50
Risk: $1,258.50 risking $0
Target: Long Term $1,619
Daily Comment: Gold was unable to regain the ground above the 200 SMA finishing the day lower and posting a bearish candle.
QM – Mini Crude Oil
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Mini Crude Oil
Entry Price: $49.90
Risk: $48.675 risking $612.50
Target: $63.15
Daily Comment: Oil bounced higher after the storage report trading back up above $50 before reversing to finish the day lower closing at the 61.8% retracement level and posting a candle with a long upper shadow.
ZL - Soybean Oil
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Soybean Oil
Entry Price: $0.3575
Risk: $0.3497 risking $470
Target: $0.4315
Daily Comment: Soybean Oil was higher during the overnight session before reversing to finish the day slightly lower posting a candle with an upper shadow.
Below are the comments on the opportunities I’m watching.
HE – Lean Hogs
Lean Hogs were unable to close above the recent highs posting an indecisive doji candle.
HG – Copper
Copper traded both above and below the 200 SMA closing at the 200 SMA and posting an indecisive doji candle.
ZN – 10 Year Note
The 10 Year Note was lower today trading down to the 200 SMA and posting a bearish full bodied candle.
Trade: Short 10 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar Average Entry Price: 99.065
Risk: 99.10 risking $750
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90
Daily Comment: Eurodollars traded higher during the session but finished the day off the highs posting a candle with an upper shadow.
QO – Mini Gold
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,258.50
Risk: $1,258.50 risking $0
Target: Long Term $1,619
Daily Comment: Gold was higher today but finished the day off the highs posting a candle with an upper shadow and remains below the 200 SMA.
QM – Mini Crude Oil
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Mini Crude Oil
Entry Price: $49.90
Risk: $48.675 risking $612.50
Target: $63.15
Daily Comment: Oil rallied back above the 61.8% retracement level today but finished the day off the highs posting a candle with an upper shadow.
ZL - Soybean Oil
Trade: Long 2 contracts of December Soybean Oil
Entry Price: $0.3555
Risk: $0.3497 risking $695
Target: $0.4315
Daily Comment: Soybean Oil was lower today and I used the re-test of the neckline to add another contract to the position. Prices finished towards the lows posting a bearish candle but remain above the 35 level.
Below are the comments on the opportunities I’m watching.
HE – Lean Hogs
Lean Hogs surged higher today posting a bullish full bodied candle and closing above the 40 SMA.
HG – Copper
Copper broke through the 200 SMA today posting a bullish full bodied candle.
ZN – 10 Year Note
The 10 Year Note broke down through the 200 SMA today and found support at the 61.8% retracement mark of the recent range finished the day off the lows and posting a candle with a lower shadow.
I exited my long Gold position and entered a short position in the 10 Year Notes today.
GE – Eurodollar
Trade: Short 10 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar Average Entry Price: 99.065
Risk: 99.10 risking $750
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90
Daily Comment: Eurodollars initially traded lower after the strong GDP report and I tried to exit at the bottom of the range at 99.03 but couldn’t get filled. Prices then traded higher but couldn’t hold onto the gains finishing the day unchanged and posting an indecisive doji candle.
QO – Mini Gold
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,258.50
Exit Price: $1,263.75
Trade Comment: Gold has been trading below the 200 SMA for almost a month now which does not fit the price action I would expect to see in the trade setup used to enter this position. I could have done much better on the exit to increase the profit on this trade though.
Daily Comment: Gold traded lower after the strong GDP report and with my doubts about the chances of this trade setup working I exited on this weakness. This decision appeared correct initially as prices continued to decline after I exited but prices turned around later in the session trading back above the 200 SMA but couldn’t hold onto the gains finishing off the day’s highs and closing back at the 200 SMA. Waiting to act on the close today would have offered a much better opportunity to exit.
QM – Mini Crude Oil
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Mini Crude Oil
Entry Price: $49.90
Risk: $48.675 risking $612.50
Target: $63.15
Daily Comment: Oil was weak today leading into the OPEC meeting over the weekend trading down through the 61.8% retracement level and posting a bearish full bodied candle. Prices traded through my stop level during the session and closed the session right near my stop level. I decided to stick with the trade over the weekend on the basis that the weakness today was probably due to a lot of traders paring positions before the weekend and that the chances of a negative meeting result are now more priced into the market than the chances of a positive meeting result. It’s probably too risky a strategy and I’ll be ready to take the loss first thing Monday if it doesn’t work out.
ZL - Soybean Oil
Trade: Long 2 contracts of December Soybean Oil
Average Entry Price: $0.3555
Risk: $0.3497 risking $695
Target: $0.4315
Daily Comment: Soybean Oil opened down at the 35 level and traded higher from this level back up through the neckline but prices finished off the day’s highs posting a candle with an upper shadow. Importantly though prices did close out the week above the neckline.
ZN – 10 Year Note
Trade: Short 2 contracts of December 10 Year Notes
Average Entry Price: 129 11.5/32
Risk: 129 24/32 risking $675
Target: 123 3/32
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices traded down through the 200 SMA after a long uptrend and traded through the 61.8% retracement of the recent range during the session.
Fundamental: Growth in the US economy is leading towards an environment of increasing interest rates.
Daily Comment: The 10 Year Note broke down through the 61.8% retracement level after the strong GDP report before reversing to finish the day above this level posting an indecisive candle. I enter one contract prior to the break of the 61.8% retracement level and then entered another contract once prices traded through this level intraday. I was too quick to enter multiple contracts today without closing price confirmation.
Below are the comments on the opportunities I’m watching.
HG – Copper
Copper continued its run higher today posting another bullish full bodied candle and closing near the 61.8% retracement level of the recent major range. If prices can close above this level and the recent highs at $2.22 which also forms the boundary line of the triangle pattern it may offer a good buying opportunity.
Below is my updated tracking sheet for October with the key metrics I am currently following.
The metrics in isolation don’t look too bad but as can be the case with statistics they often don’t tell the full story because I feel that my trading was quite poor in October, especially the second half of the month. Whilst the profit factor and expectancy figures look good they are skewed by the strong gains in my Hogs trade in September which was closed in October. This is the reason for the discrepancy in the return on capital as it is based on month to month cash movement and therefore most of the Hogs trade gains are accounted for in the September return on capital figures.
Focusing on the return on capital figures for October I made a loss for the month but I hit a new equity peak for the year in the second week of October and at this point my return on capital for the month was +10%. Since that peak there has been a steady drawdown that turned the month into an overall loss.
A drawdown is not an issue and is to be expected with a trend following system with returns usually skewed within a couple of big months. However, the period after a strong gain is often the riskiest as a trader is tempted to take more marginal trades and/or take greater risk. This is something I have been guilty of the past.
With this in mind, I’ve undertaken a detailed review of all trade executions in October in an attempt to determine whether the current drawdown is simply the result of trading a trend following system or whether some of my mistakes from the past are repeating themselves. If it’s the latter, I hope that identifying the behaviours early will help prevent a mild drawdown from turning into a serious drawdown.
The first thing that stands out is the number of trades in October are significantly greater than previous periods which could suggest overtrading and taking marginal trades. The total trade figures consist of several trade executions which relate to scaling into positions more than I normally do and therefore increasing the total number of trades. Once this is taken into consideration the total number of trades in October is not significantly greater than average. Also, each trade setup I entered during the period made sense according to my trading plan with the exception of the last two Soybean Oil trades so I am not too concerned in this regard.
The two biggest things that stand out from my review is holding too many positions at once and trading too many contracts on certain positions resulting in too great a risk to my account. Towards the end of the month I was carrying 4 positions and all of them turned against me at the same time increasing the speed of the drawdown. I have also noticed that I have been too quick trying to pyramid into positions and setting my stop for maximum risk rather than where the trade is wrong to account for the over-leverage associated with the additional contracts.
By far the biggest issue with my trading in October was poor execution, particularly around trade exits which resulted in either unnecessary losses or losses larger than they should have been. These kinds of errors are often the difference between a profitable year or a losing year and I need to maintain better discipline after periods of strong gains to ensure I can hold onto the gains.
I have to leave earlier for work now to juggle childcare so I’m no longer at home when the market closes and can’t prepare my usual daily journal just after the market closes so I’m moving to a weekly journal update for the rest of the year and then I’ll re-evaluate in the new year whether to stick with the weekly journal or move back to a daily journal.
Trades for the week:
- Entered a long position in Copper
- Exited my long position in Crude Oil
- Entered a short position in Crude Oil
- Pyramided my short position in Crude Oil
This week can best be summed up as a week of poor decisions. My recent drawdown accelerated sharply at the start of the week as a result of these poor decisions which will be discussed below but a couple of good trades in the middle of the week have stemmed the tide for now.
Weekly Comment: Eurodollars were higher this week trading back up to the top of the range. The candle on Thursday had a long upper shadow which was followed up with an indecisive doji on Friday indicating that prices may be turning back down within the range. I’m looking to exit this position towards the bottom of the range as there is very little scope for this contract to trend this close to expiry. I’m currently looking at a longer dated calendar spread as a better way to represent this trade idea.
QM – Mini Crude Oil
Trade 1: Long 1 contract of December Mini Crude Oil
Entry Price: $49.90
Exit Price: $45.925
Trade Comment: Prices opened the week around my Stop level which was now right near the 40 SMA so I held off exiting the trade to see whether prices could bounce from this level. I went to bed before the day session on Monday and forgot to put a stop in place below the 40 SMA to protect against any further moves to the downside which was a major mistake given it was more likely to be a down day on Monday. I was punished severely for this mistake with prices falling sharply on Monday to trade back down towards the 200 SMA. With severe damage already done I decided to risk a little more pain to see if prices could bounce from the 200 SMA which they initially did on Tuesday before turning back down on Wednesday leading into the storage report. With prices back at the 200 SMA and expectations of a strong build in inventory I finally took my medicine and closed out the position for a -3R loss. Thankfully this is where things started to turn around as I not only closed out the long position but reversed and went short.
Trade 2: Short 1 contract of December Mini Crude Oil
Entry Price: $45.925
Risk: $47.175 initially risking $625 – moved to break-even at the start of Friday’s trade
Target: $42.075
Trade 3: Short 1 contract of December Mini Crude Oil
Entry Price: $44.725
Risk: $45.925 risking $600
Target: $33.58
Reasons for entering the trades:
Technical: Prices broke down through a flattening 200 SMA which can turn back down quickly and broke through the 61.8% retracement of the recent range.
Fundamental: OPEC failed to agree on a production cut and US inventory showed a large build confirming the potential for supply to continue to outpace demand in the short term.
Weekly Comment: Prices broke through the flattening 200 SMA on Wednesday and I took a short position on the break. Prices continued lower on Thursday trading down through the 61.8% retracement of the recent range and I added another contract to my short position on this break. If prices can continue lower and break the 61.8% retracement of the entire recent uptrends range at $41.98 I may look to add another contract to the position.
ZL - Soybean Oil
Trade: Long 2 contracts of December Soybean Oil
Average Entry Price: $0.3555
Risk: $0.3497 risking $695
Target: $0.4315
Weekly Comment: Soybean Oil traded back down through the neckline early in the week heading down to my stop level. With the 20 SMA in such close proximity I overrode my stop and stuck with the trade to see if this level provided support. Prices initially bounced from this level but prices finished the week on a negative note posting a bearish candle and closing just below the 20 SMA. If there is any continued weakness on Monday I will exit the position.
ZN – 10 Year Note
Trade: Short 2 contracts of December 10 Year Notes
Average Entry Price: 129 11.5/32
Risk: 130 11/32 risking $1,950
Target: 123 3/32
Weekly Comment: I can see huge potential in this trade and because of this I was quick to build a large position for my account size, too quick in fact. The biggest problem with the large position was that it was justified using a stop placement which didn’t make sense. Prices traded up through my original stop level on Wednesday and with the poor positioning of the stop I overrode it and let the position run as long as it stays below the falling 40 SMA significantly increasing the risk on the trade. Prices finished the week strongly posting a bullish full bodied candle and closing at the 40 SMA. It looks like I’m going to have to take another large dose of medicine again next week as a result of these poor decisions and I can guarantee that this dose will be the cure.
HG – Copper
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Copper
Entry Price: 2.221
Risk: $2.196 risking $625 - moving to break even on Monday
Target: $2.51
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices traded up through the 61.8% retracement of the recent major range after trading up through a now rising 200 SMA and closed above the recent high at $2.219.
Fundamental: Recent positive manufacturing and GDP data from both the U.S. and the Euro zone has added to optimism about the growth prospects of the global economy as well as supplies lowering at the LME.
Weekly Comment: Copper rallied strongly on Tuesday trading up through the 61.8% retracement level of the major range and closing above the recent highs. Prices retraced on Wednesday and I took a position near the recent highs in case this level acted as support. Prices actually traded down near the 61.8% retracement level on Wednesday but reversed to finish the day slightly higher posting a candle with a long lower shadow which preceded a strong rally on Thursday and Friday which took prices through the upside of the symmetrical triangle.
Below are my comments on other opportunities I am watching and other markets of note.
GC – Gold
Gold rallied strongly this week trading back up through both the 200 SMA and the 40 SMA and closing the week above the $1,300 level. It’s disappointing to have missed this move after holding the trade for so long but it happens from time to time. I’m now focused on the 61.8% retracement level at $1,331.
HE – Lean Hogs
April Hogs fell sharply on Tuesday down to the 60 level and this level held for the rest of the week. The fundamental picture for Hogs still looks extremely bearish and if the downtrend continues I’m focused on the 61.8% retracement of the recent uptrend at 57.90 as an area to re-enter.
SB – Sugar
Sugar was sharply lower early in the week but rallied from the 61.8% retracement level of the recent range on Wednesday. If prices break this level Sugar may trade back down to the 200 SMA and if this happens I may look at re-entering a long position.
US Stock Market Indices
All of the US stock market indices fell this week and are now back near rising 200 SMA’s. If prices intersect with the 200 SMA it may offer a good buying opportunity but with the US election approaching this week I’m in no rush to enter a position in the US stock indices.
Nikkei
The Nikkei broke up through the 200 SMA recently after a downtrend. Prices were lower this week trading back down through the 200 SMA but I will continue to monitor this market and look to take a long position if prices break up through the 200 SMA again.
DX - US Dollar Index
The US Dollar broke back down through the 61.8% retracement of the major range this week negating the previous buy signal but prices are now near the rising 40 SMA which may provide support.
KC – Coffee
Coffee was weak early in the week before rallying strongly for the remainder of the week. Prices were sharply higher on Friday finishing the week with a bullish full bodied candle and meeting the first target at the 161.8% extension level. It’s a real shame I missed this trade by a day.
- Stopped out of my short position in Mini Crude Oil
- Exited my long position in Copper
- Stopped out of my Long position in Soybean Oil
I had my most profitable week ever this week with a return on capital of 76% for the week. I also recovered from my recent drawdown phase to move back to not just new equity highs but all time equity highs. However, this return came with a serious amount of risk. I went into the election still holding all my recent positions with no stops in place expecting extreme volatility during the day and after learning a lot from the BREXIT vote.
There was extreme volatility on election day and I had to endure some wild swings against my positions early in the day before the ultimate recovery. At the worst point my account was down 23% for the day before turning around to finish the day up 10%. Whilst things worked out this time I don’t think this is the best approach for trading in these volatile markets and things could just as easily have been my worst week ever rather than my best week ever. In the future I think it is probably wise to be flat leading into these events and then day trade the event and attempt to capture some of the large intraday swings.
Below are my comments on my open positions and closed trades for the week.
Weekly Comment: Eurodollars traded down towards the bottom of the range early in the week and actually touched my exit level in the early market moves when it looked like Hillary was going to win Florida but I couldn’t get a fill. Prices moved sharply upwards when the likely election result changed and I held through rally expecting the markets to settle back down within the range. Prices continued back towards the bottom of the range to end the week and I will continue to look to exit just below this level.
QM – Mini Crude Oil
Trade: Short 2 contracts of December Mini Crude Oil
Average Entry Price: $45.325
Exit Price: $45.925
Weekly Comment: Oil was stronger leading into the election but prices broke sharply after it started looking like Trump was going to win. I was tempted to cover on the spike down as I assumed that the selling was overdone but decided to hold onto the trade. Prices turned around and rallied later in the day and continued to rally after the storage report trading up to my stop level and taking me out of the trade. The high of the day was 1 tick above my stop level and prices finished the day off the highs back down near the 61.8% retracement level. I was tempted to re-enter my position but with the strong rallies in so many markets I was hesitant to take another short position. It appears that this was the wrong decision with prices fell sharply on Friday trading lower than the election spike. I’m now focused on the $41.98 level, being the 61.8% retracement level of the entire recent rally as a potential short entry.
ZL - Soybean Oil
Trade: Long 2 contracts of December Soybean Oil
Average Entry Price: $0.3555
Exit Price: $0.3410
Weekly Comment: Soybean Oil rallied on Monday and Tuesday to keep me in the trade. Prices then fell sharply on Wednesday after the bearish WASDE report triggering a sell signal. I overrode this signal because prices remained above the 40 SMA and there was a major report on Malaysian Palm Oil coming out later in the week which was likely to have a major impact on Soybean Oil and I wanted to stay in the trade until after this report was released. The report was bullish and Soybean Oil rallied strongly on Friday before reversing lower and triggering my stop which was sitting below the 40 SMA. This was another case of prices trading one tick past my stop level and finishing the day back above my stop level however given there was 2 volatility blow out days this week and they were both bearish it appears it’s time to move on from this trade.
ZN – 10 Year Note
Trade: Short 2 contracts of December 10 Year Notes
Average Entry Price: 129 11.5/32
Risk: 129 11.5/32 risking $0
Target: 123 3/32
Weekly Comment: Prices fell from the 40 SMA early in the week and I wasn’t forced to cover the trade as I expected at the end of last week. I started to get nervous about holding the position without stops when prices rallied sharply up to the 100 SMA after it looked like Trump was going to win. Prices held the 100 SMA and then reversed falling sharply to finish election day much lower trading down through the 200 SMA and the 61.8% retracement of the recent range. Prices continued lower on Thursday and Friday confirming that it is likely that a significant down trend may now be underway.
HG – Copper
Trade: Long 1 contract of December Copper
Entry Price: 2.221
Exit Price: $2.6275
Weekly Comment: Copper started the week strongly continuing its bullish momentum. Prices initially fell sharply after it looked as though Trump was going to win but quickly reversed to rally strongly for the rest of the week on the back of expectations of fiscal stimulus. With prices rallying so quickly and the frenzied buying during the European session on Friday I suspected that profit taking was likely during the US session so I set a stop below the market in between a couple of fib extension levels and the target of the symmetrical triangle to lock in most of the profit for the week in the event prices did correct. This is what ended up happening with prices finishing lower on Friday and posting a candle with a long upper shadow. It appears that a short-term top is in place for now and I’ll wait for prices to settle down before looking for re-entry levels.
Below are my comments on other opportunities I am watching and other markets of note.
GC – Gold
Gold traded back below the 200 SMA in the lead up to the election results and then broke out sharply after Trumps lead started firming trading up to the 61.8% retracement of the recent downtrend. Prices were unable to surpass this level reversing sharply to finish the day lower posting a candle with a long upper shadow. I thought about taking a short position on Thursday when prices traded back up to the 40 SMA but holding so many positions already I decided against adding any further leverage in volatile markets. Gold finished the week on a bearish note trading sharply lower and posting a bearish full bodied candle.
SI – Silver
Silver held up much better than Gold through the election trading up to the 100 SMA on both Wednesday and Thursday before collapsing on Friday to trade down through the 200 SMA posting a bearish full bodied candle. I may look at entering a short position in the vicinity of the 200 SMA.
PA – Palladium
Palladium rallied strongly this week trading up to the 61.8% retracement level of the recent range. Prices paused at this level trading lower on Friday and closing the week with an indecisive doji candle. If prices can surpass this level I may look at entering a long position.
HE – Lean Hogs
April Hogs continued to grind higher this week trading back up to the recent highs but finished the week with an indecisive candle with a long upper shadow. I continue to monitor the Hogs for the next leg down.
KC – Coffee
Coffee continued through the 161.8% extension level on Monday but then traded back lower on Tuesday posting a bearish engulfing candle. Prices fell sharply after the election result in line with weakness in emerging market currencies in major coffee producing regions especially Brazil. Prices finished the week right near the rising 40 SMA and the July highs and this level may be a good buying opportunity.
DX - US Dollar Index
The US Dollar rallied early in the week trading back up to the 61.8% retracement level. There was extreme volatility in the dollar during the election results with prices falling sharply back down towards the 200 SMA before recovering to finish the day higher and close above the 61.8% retracement level. Prices continued higher to finish the week closing at new highs for the move.
