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Muttoez Trading Journal
Started:April 1st, 2016 (08:47 PM) by muttoez Views / Replies:8,584 / 286
Last Reply:December 4th, 2016 (03:17 AM) Attachments:5

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Muttoez Trading Journal

Old October 3rd, 2016, 06:03 PM   #241 (permalink)
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Review of October 3 Trading Action

I took a small long position in Mini Natural Gas today.

GE – Eurodollar

Trade: Short 8 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar
Average Entry Price: 99.07
Risk: 99.105 risking $725
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90

Daily Comment: Eurodollars finished slightly lower today remaining in the recent range.

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HE – Lean Hogs

Trade: Short 1 contract of December Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.5480
Risk: $0.4720 risking $0
Target: $0.3750

Daily Comment: Hogs traded both higher and lower today posting new contract lows before finishing the day slightly higher and posting an indecisive doji candle.

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QG – Mini Natural Gas

Trade: Long 2 contracts of November Mini Natural Gas
Entry Price: $2.885
Risk: $2.825 risking $300
Target: $3.32

Reasons for entering the trade:

Technical: Prices have broken through the 200 SMA after a long downtrend and have also surpassed the 61.8% retracement of the recent corrective range.

Fundamental: Weather related demand and lower supply injections have been driving natural gas prices higher.

Daily Comment: Natural Gas tested the 61.8% retracement of the recent range today but held at this level posting an indecisive doji candle.

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Below are the comments on the opportunities I am watching.

ZL - Soybean Oil

Soybean Oil was lower today coming back to re-test the 200 SMA but bounced from this level to finish the day only slightly lower and close back above the 40 SMA.

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HG – Copper

Copper was lower today trading back down through the 61.8% retracement level but recovered to finish the day slightly lower and closed back at this level.

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Old October 4th, 2016, 07:45 PM   #242 (permalink)
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Review of October 4 Trading Action

No trades today.

GE – Eurodollar

Trade: Short 8 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar
Average Entry Price: 99.07
Risk: 99.105 risking $725
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90

Daily Comment: Eurodollars finished the day unchanged posting an indecisive doji candle.

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HE – Lean Hogs

Trade: Short 1 contract of December Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.5480
Risk: $0.4720 risking $0
Target: $0.3750

Daily Comment: Hogs tested the underside of the 261.8% extension level today but reversed from this level to finish the day lower and post a candle with a long upper shadow. Today was an opportunity to reinitiate more leverage on this trade but unfortunately I didn’t have orders in the market and may have now missed that opportunity.

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QG – Mini Natural Gas

Trade: Long 2 contracts of November Mini Natural Gas
Entry Price: $2.885
Risk: $2.825 risking $300
Target: $3.32

Daily Comment: Natural Gas tested the 61.8% retracement of the recent range again today but bounced from this level finishing the day higher and posting a bullish candle.

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Below are the comments on the opportunities I am watching.

ZL - Soybean Oil

Soybean Oil was lower again today coming back towards the 200 SMA but bounced from this level to finish the day only slightly lower again.

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HG – Copper

Copper was lower today trading back down through the 61.8% retracement level and posting a bearish candle.

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GC - Gold

Gold fell sharply today posting a very bearish candle. Prices are now within a whisker of the rising 200 SMA and will need to hold above this level for the uptrend to remain intact. If prices can bounce from this level I may look at buying Gold.

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Old October 5th, 2016, 06:15 PM   #243 (permalink)
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Review of October 5 Trading Action


I added another contract to my Natural Gas position today.

GE – Eurodollar

Trade: Short 8 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar
Average Entry Price: 99.07
Risk: 99.105 risking $725
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90

Daily Comment: Eurodollars finished the day lower but finished off the lows posting a candle with a small lower shadow.

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HE – Lean Hogs

Trade: Short 1 contract of December Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.5480
Risk: $0.4720 risking $0
Target: $0.3750

Daily Comment: Hogs were sharply lower again today but finished the day off the lows posting a candle with a lower shadow.

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QG – Mini Natural Gas

Trade: Long 3 contracts of November Mini Natural Gas
Average Entry Price: $2.90
Risk: $2.825 risking $575
Target: $3.32

Daily Comment: Natural Gas was lower early in the session and I used this opportunity to add another contract to my position. Prices recovered later in the day to finish the day higher and post another bullish candle. Prices touched the 61.8% retracement level of the recent minor range today and if prices can surpass this level I may look to add further leverage to the position.

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Below are the comments on the opportunities I am watching.

ZL - Soybean Oil

Soybean Oil traded down below the 200 SMA today but recovered to finish the day off the lows and close back above this level.

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GC - Gold

Gold almost touched the 200 SMA today and held above this level posting an indecisive doji candle. I had an order to buy Mini Gold just below the 200 SMA today but the order was not triggered.

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CL – Crude Oil

Oil broke through the 61.8% retracement of the recent range today. If the break is credible the target may be $62.73. There have been quick a few false breaks of these levels in Oil recently so I will wait a few days to see what happens before making any trades.

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Old October 6th, 2016, 06:56 PM   #244 (permalink)
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Review of October 6 Trading Action

I added another 2 contracts to my Natural Gas position today but they were quickly stopped out and I entered a long position in Mini Gold.

GE – Eurodollar

Trade: Short 8 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar
Average Entry Price: 99.07
Risk: 99.105 risking $725
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90

Daily Comment: Eurodollars continue to move lower but is still trading within the recent range.

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HE – Lean Hogs

Trade: Short 1 contract of December Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.5480
Risk: $0.4720 risking $0
Target: $0.3750

Daily Comment: Hogs gapped higher on the open and continued higher during the day but finished off the highs posting a candle with an upper shadow. I have moved my stop to the top of yesterday’s candle to exit on any further strength.

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QG – Mini Natural Gas

Trade: Long 3 contracts of November Mini Natural Gas
Average Entry Price: $2.90
Risk: $2.90 risking $0
Target: $3.32

Daily Comment: My plan for Natural Gas today leading into the storage report was to move the stop on my existing position to break even to protect against a negative outcome and to add an order to buy 2 more contracts above the market at $3.065 (price was trading at $3.02 at the time) with a stop at $2.985 for a total risk of $400 if there was a positive outcome. I also planned to wake up during the night to watch how Natural Gas prices responded to the report.

Where I went wrong was that I entered the orders to execute this plan before I went to bed (about 3 hours before the report was due for release). What happened was the market probed higher prior to the release of the report triggering my order which then essentially made holding the position into the report a gamble which was not my intention. The volatility on the release of the report triggered my stop despite prices eventually settling back above my stop level.

What I should have done was enter these orders when I woke up and had had a chance to review the price action leading up to the report. Had I taken this approach I would not have been in a position prior to the release of the report and given the initial negative reactions to the release of the report the order would not have triggered and therefore could not have been stopped out. Bottom line is I still think the plan was the right strategy but unfortunately the execution was a little lacking today.

Natural Gas prices settled the day slightly below the 61.8% retracement level of the recent minor range posting an indecisive doji candle.

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QO – Mini Gold

Trade: Long 1 contract of December Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,261
Risk: $1,244.50 risking $825
Target: Long Term $1,619

Reasons for entering the trade:

Technical: Prices intersected with the rising 200 SMA for the first time since prices broke through this level.

Fundamental: Uncertainty over Central Bank policies has been driving the Gold price higher.

Daily Comment: Gold traded down through the 200 SMA today posting a bearish candle. Prices have not yet broken this level decisively and there is still the possibility that the uptrend will resume from these levels.

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Below are the comments on the opportunities I am watching.

ZL - Soybean Oil

Soybean Oil bounced from the 200 SMA today posting a bullish full bodied candle. If prices can surpass the 61.8% retracement levels I may look at entering a position.

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CL – Crude Oil

Oil consolidated the break above the 61.8% retracement of the recent range today closing above the psychological $50 level and posting a bullish full bodied candle. I may look to enter a position on any pull back towards the 61.8% retracement level.

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ZN – 10 Year Notes

The 10 Year Notes continued lower today posting another bearish candle. If prices can trade down through the 200 SMA and the 61.8% retracement of the recent range which are in close proximity I may look to enter a short position.

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Old October 7th, 2016, 07:27 PM   #245 (permalink)
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Review of October 7 Trading Action

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I was stopped out of my Mini Gold position today.

GE – Eurodollar

Trade: Short 8 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar
Average Entry Price: 99.07
Risk: 99.105 risking $725
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90

Daily Comment: Eurodollars were higher after the weak jobs data but could not hold onto the gains finishing the day slightly higher and posting an indecisive doji candle.

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HE – Lean Hogs

Trade: Short 1 contract of December Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.5480
Risk: $0.4720 risking $0
Target: $0.3750

Daily Comment: Hogs opened higher before reversing to finish the day lower and post a bearish candle.

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QG – Mini Natural Gas

Trade: Long 3 contracts of November Mini Natural Gas
Average Entry Price: $2.90
Risk: $2.90 risking $0
Target: $3.32

Daily Comment: Natural Gas broke sharply higher today making new highs due to the Hurricane. I am always concerned about news related break outs like this and will be looking to trail the position tightly until the eventual fallout when things calm down. I will also look to take a quick profit if $3.35 can be reached (being the 161.8% extension level of both the major and minor ranges I’m looking at).

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QO – Mini Gold

Trade: Long 1 contract of December Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,261
Exit Price: $1,244.50
Trade Grade: 2.5/5

Trade Comments: My stop was triggered near the low of the day with prices recovering and not violating the stop on a closing basis. It is still not clear that the 200 SMA has been broken and if prices can move back above this level I may look at re-entering,

Daily Comment: Gold traded higher after the weak jobs data before turning lower to post new lows for the move. Prices finished off the lows finishing the day slightly lower and posting an indecisive doji candle.

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Below are the comments on the opportunities I am watching.

ZL - Soybean Oil

Soybean Oil didn’t follow through today initially trading lower but prices finished off the lows and closed slightly higher posting an indecisive candle.

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CL – Crude Oil

Oil was lower today falling back below the psychological $50 level and posting a bearish candle but still remains above the 61.8% retracement level.

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ZN – 10 Year Notes

The 10 Year Notes traded lower early in the session before bouncing to finish the day higher and post a candle with a lower shadow.

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Old October 7th, 2016, 08:03 PM   #246 (permalink)
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Hi, I am a fellow eurodollar trader, both spreads and outrights, and am curious why you are trading Dec 16? Why not further down the curve?

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Old October 8th, 2016, 04:54 PM   #247 (permalink)
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bathrobe View Post
Hi, I am a fellow eurodollar trader, both spreads and outrights, and am curious why you are trading Dec 16? Why not further down the curve?

Sent from my SM-G900V using futures.io mobile app

I'm trading Dec 16 because the trade setup I look for happened in Dec 16 and hadn't happened in later periods at the time.

The is the first time I've traded Eurodollars and I'm not used to trading an instrument that has decent volume out further than a couple of contracts.

I was planning on rolling this position in Dec 17 but happy to hear any advice on better ways to trade Eurodollars.

Thanks for your input.

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Old October 8th, 2016, 06:45 PM   #248 (permalink)
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muttoez View Post
I'm trading Dec 16 because the trade setup I look for happened in Dec 16 and hadn't happened in later periods at the time.

The is the first time I've traded Eurodollars and I'm not used to trading an instrument that has decent volume out further than a couple of contracts.

I was planning on rolling this position in Dec 17 but happy to hear any advice on better ways to trade Eurodollars.

Thanks for your input.

Happy to give any input I can.

If your setup took place in the Dec 16 then by all means that is a reason to trade that one.

You did mean I assume you were going to roll it in Dec 16 (not Dec. 17 as it expires in Dec 16), I do not roll these though, so I can't comment other than most of the volume is professional spreaders with member rates and incredibly low commissions.

Also, from what I saw in the last few positions you put on regarding volume down the curve not being as liquid (we may have differing opinions on liquidity of course) however, CL has liquidity through Dec 17, Sugar #11 is liquid through March 2018, Gold is liquid through Dec 17, the other contracts I don't trade so I can't offer an opinion.

You gotta be comfy with the liquidity of what you trade always afterall I am just a guy on the internet.

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Old October 8th, 2016, 09:32 PM   #249 (permalink)
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bathrobe View Post
Happy to give any input I can.

If your setup took place in the Dec 16 then by all means that is a reason to trade that one.

You did mean I assume you were going to roll it in Dec 16 (not Dec. 17 as it expires in Dec 16), I do not roll these though, so I can't comment other than most of the volume is professional spreaders with member rates and incredibly low commissions.

Also, from what I saw in the last few positions you put on regarding volume down the curve not being as liquid (we may have differing opinions on liquidity of course) however, CL has liquidity through Dec 17, Sugar #11 is liquid through March 2018, Gold is liquid through Dec 17, the other contracts I don't trade so I can't offer an opinion.

You gotta be comfy with the liquidity of what you trade always afterall I am just a guy on the internet.

Sorry that should have said planning to roll into the Dec 17 contract when the Dec 16 expires.

I agree with your point about liquidity down the curve for the big contracts but I'm generally only trading the e-mini contracts at this stage which don't have the same levels of liquidity down the curve unfortunately.

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Old October 8th, 2016, 11:19 PM   #250 (permalink)
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Week in Review - 3 - 7 October Pt I


Trades for the week:

- 3 Long entries in Mini Natural Gas with the last entry being stopped out.
- Entered and stopped out of a Long position in Mini Gold.

I’ll start the weekly update with comments on my open positions and closed trades.

GE - Eurodollar

Eurodollars slid lower this week but still remain range bound.

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HE – Lean Hogs

Hogs continued lower this week posting further contract lows. I am wary of a bounce from oversold levels at this point and am trailing the position down.

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NG – Natural Gas

Natural Gas bounced from the 61.8% retracement level of the corrective range on Monday and then broke out strongly at the end of the week due to the Hurricane and reports of unseasonal warm weather increasing demand. The 161.8% extension levels of both the major and minor levels are both around $3.35 so I will be looking to take a quick profit at this point and then see how prices react around this level before re-entering.

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GC – Gold

Gold collapsed sharply this week falling below the 200 SMA. Prices continue to interact with this level providing some doubt as to whether this level has been broken.

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