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Muttoez Trading Journal
Started:April 1st, 2016 (08:47 PM) by muttoez Views / Replies:8,572 / 286
Last Reply:December 4th, 2016 (03:17 AM) Attachments:5

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Muttoez Trading Journal

Old September 1st, 2016, 06:02 PM   #231 (permalink)
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Review of September 1 Trading Action

I was stopped out of Lean Hogs and Sugar today.

GE Eurodollar

Trade: Short 8 contracts of December 2016 Eurodollar
Average Entry Price: 99.07
Risk: 99.105 risking $725
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term 97.90

Daily Comment: Eurodollars were stronger today after the disappointing ISM manufacturing data posting a bullish full bodied candle.

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HE Lean Hogs

Trade: Short 1 contract of October Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.6025
Exit Price: $0.6330

Trade Comment: I exited on the break of the previous high as I was not willing to risk any more of the profits on this trade while Im away and will not be monitoring the markets closely enough.

Daily Comment: Hogs were higher today but finished well off the highs posting a candle with an upper shadow.

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SB Sugar

Trade: Long 1 contract of October Sugar
Entry Price: 0.2042
Exit Price: 0.1982

Daily Comment: Sugar was lower today posting a bearish full bodied candle and closing below the 40 SMA.

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Old September 6th, 2016, 07:40 PM   #232 (permalink)
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Review of September 6 Trading Action

I re-entered a Short position in Lean Hogs today.

I had been riding out the recent corrective uptrend in Hogs but closed out the position prior to travelling so of course the next day while I'm out of touch with the market prices crash 4%. A move like that the day before a long weekend is often a strong signal so I submitted an order to enter on the open today.

Hogs gapped lower through the 61.8% retracement of the recent corrective range at the open and continued lower closing towards the lows. With the continued follow through weakness today I added another contract to the position at the close.

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Old September 13th, 2016, 04:48 PM   #233 (permalink)
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Review of September 13 Trading Action


A quick update on my Hogs position.

They reached the short term target today at the 161.8% extension so I took profits on 1 of the contracts. I am still holding the other contract but I have tightened the stop using the 161.8% extension level to 51.20.

I may add the other contract back on if the 161.8% extension level is broken with a close below 50.

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Old September 15th, 2016, 05:44 PM   #234 (permalink)
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Review of September 15 Trading Action

Hogs closed below the 50 level yesterday and I had a look at adding another contract on the close but I wasn't willing to take on the amount of risk required using a stop at 51.20. Instead I decided to put an order in above the market at 49.75 hoping that prices would pop higher on the open like they have the past few days.

Prices traded back up to test the underside of the 161.8% extension level after the open triggering my order before reversing to post new lows.

The fallout to the downside has been swift and I am concerned that prices are probably now at extremely overbought levels. The finish well off the lows and the large range doji today provide some clues that this may be the case. If there is confirming price action tomorrow I will look to exit the 2nd contract.

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Old October 1st, 2016, 06:20 PM   #235 (permalink)
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Review of September 30 Trading Action

Futures Edge on FIO
Hogs were sharply lower today leading into the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report issued after the close.

I exited my second contract at the 261.8% extension level. The original contract is still running with the stop now tightened up using this level.

I will digest the report over the weekend to see whether the second contract should be added again based on the negative close well below the 261.8% extension level.

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Old October 3rd, 2016, 12:35 AM   #236 (permalink)
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Month In Review - September 2016

Below is my updated tracking sheet for September with the key metrics I am currently following. I've adjusted the methodology slightly this month to look at the metrics on a per trade basis rather than trying to group like trades together as it is too difficult to monitor month to month.

It was a bumper month in September with my Lean Hogs position taken during the month generating solid returns.

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I was on holidays for most of September so I wasnt monitoring the market closely and wasnt looking to take on any new trades. I made an exception for Lean Hogs as it is a market I have been following closely and it was a high conviction trade.

I recently made a few changes to my trading plan which I will continue to review over the next few months.

1. Average Risk Per Trade My average risk per trade target for the coming year is $US750. My trades entered during September all met this target.

2. Total Risk Per Capital My risk on a total capital basis is targeted at less than 10% of capital at risk at any given point in time. I exceeded this target for a week during September as I took on extended leverage in Lean Hogs given that it was a high conviction trade.

3. Trade Setups I have limited the number of trade setups to only my highest quality setups. All trades taken during September fell within the limited trade setups targeted.

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Old October 3rd, 2016, 12:52 AM   #237 (permalink)
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September in Review - Grains & Livestock

ZC Corn

Corn bounced off the contract lows reached in late August during September but struggled to surpass the 40 SMA trading in a sideways range for most of the month.

A potential head and shoulders bottom may be forming in Corn but I dont see any real trading opportunities until the 200 SMA can be surpassed.

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ZS Soybeans

Soybeans were range bound during September trading both above and below the 200 SMA.

I dont see any potential trading opportunities in Soybeans at the moment.

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ZM Soybean Meal

Soybean Meal has broken down through the 61.8% retracement of the recent uptrend and also appears to have broken the 200 SMA to the downside.

The chart setup looks very similar to the Hogs trade a few months back and may offer a good shorting opportunity with a target down at 151. However, given that I am bullish on Soybean Oil I would be reluctant to take this trade.

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ZL Soybean Oil

Soybean Oil surpassed the now rising 200 SMA again during September and held a re-test of this level late in the month.

If prices can surpass the 61.8% retracement level of both the major and minor ranges a good buying opportunity may arise. Soybean Oil tried surpassing these levels once during September but this attempt failed. I am watching this market closely.

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ZW - Wheat

Wheat traded in a sideways channel during September and continues to find support at the lows around the 3.90 level.
I dont see any potential trading opportunities in Wheat at present.

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HE Lean Hogs

Hog prices collapsed during September trading sharply lower. There are still some further downside targets but I am concerned the large range at the end of the month may be signalling an exhaustion of the downtrend. I have reduced leverage on this trade and I have tightened up my stop to protect open profits. I continue to monitor this market closely.

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LE Live Cattle

Live Cattle prices fell sharply to start the month posting new lows but then recovered trading back towards the 40 SMA before falling sharply again to finish the month back near the lows.

I dont see any potential trading opportunities in Cattle at present.

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Old October 3rd, 2016, 12:55 AM   #238 (permalink)
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September in Review Softs

CC Cocoa

Cocoa continued to trade in the same channel that its been in this year finishing the month at the bottom end of the channel range.

I dont see any potential trading opportunities in Cocoa at present.

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KC Coffee

Coffee broke through the 61.8% retracement mark of the corrective range during September rising strongly to test the recent highs but reversed strongly to finish the month back down at the 61.8% retracement level.

I dont see any potential trading opportunities in Coffee at present until the reversal high can be surpassed.

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CT Cotton

Cotton attempted to resume the rally again during September but was unable to do so falling back down to finish the month only slightly higher.

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SB - Sugar

Sugar had a massive one day rally during September that surpassed the recent highs and prices continued higher before pausing at the 161.8% extension level of the recent corrective range.

I was watching Sugar during the period and almost took a shot when prices were back at the 61.8% retracement mark but decided against it after already taking two losing trades in Sugar so far this year. The break out day then pushed the market too far to take a trade within my risk tolerance guidelines. I will continue to monitor this market for any further opportunities to get on board.

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Old October 3rd, 2016, 12:58 AM   #239 (permalink)
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September in Review Metals & Energies

GC Gold

Gold was still unable to surpass the 61.8% retracement of the recent range during September but continues to find support at the 100 SMA.

I am looking to buy Gold if it can fall back to the 200 SMA or if it can surpass the 61.8% retracement level.

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SI Silver

Silver also could not surpass the 61.8% retracement of the recent corrective range during September.
I dont see any potential trading opportunities in Silver at present.

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HG Copper

Copper surpassed the 200 SMA again during September and may have broken through the 61.8% retracement level of the recent corrective range at the end of the month.

I am looking at buying Copper on any pullback towards the 61.8% retracement level.

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CL Crude Oil

Oil broke through the 200 SMA again during September after the OPEC announcement but is still trading below the 61.8% retracement mark of the recent range. If this level can be surpassed I may look at buying.

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NG Natural Gas

Natural Gas broke through the 61.8% retracement level of the recent corrective range during September but finished the month back at this level after the OPEC announcement. I am currently considering whether to take a small position at this level.

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Old October 3rd, 2016, 01:00 AM   #240 (permalink)
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September in Review Currencies & Interest Rates


DX US Dollar Index

The US Dollar continued to struggle to surpass the 200 SMA during September and is now trading within a tight range.

I dont see any potential trading opportunities in the Dollar at present.

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ZN 10 Year Notes

The Notes continued to trade within the recent range during September. I am waiting for prices to break the 200 SMA to enter a short position.

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GE - Eurodollars

Eurodollars put in a new low during September but quickly recovered to move back into the recent range. Prices continue to hold below the 200 SMA but the average is now rising. I am currently re-evaluating whether to stick with this trade any longer.

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