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Trade: Long 1 contract of October Sugar
Entry Price: 0.2045
Risk: 0.1983 risking $695
Target: Short Term – 0.2277, Long Term 0.2640
Daily Comment: Sugar was higher during the overnight session but couldn’t hold onto the gains again. Prices re-tested the 61.8% retracement level but held this level.
Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
HE – Lean Hogs
Hogs started higher but couldn’t hold onto the gains trading back down to the recent lows.
GE – Eurodollar
The December 16 contract was lower today but finished well off the lows posting a candle with a lower shadow.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I was stopped out of my Sugar position for a loss and I started building a Short position in Eurodollars today.
SB – Sugar
Trade: Long 1 contract of October Sugar
Entry Price: 0.2045
Exit Price: 0.1982
Trade Grade: 2.5/5
Trade Comment: The lack of follow through to the upside on the previous two days provided clues that this trade might fail and I could have tightened my Stop after seeing this price action to reduce the risk on the trade. Otherwise, no issues with the trade with all rules followed.
Daily Comment: Sugar crashed back down through the 61.8% retracement level today posting a bearish full bodied candle.
GE – Eurodollar
Trade: Short 2 contracts of December Eurodollar
Entry Price: 99.08
Risk: 99.14 risking $300
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices penetrated the 200 SMA after a long uptrend.
Fundamental: Expectations of rising interest rates.
Daily Comment: Eurodollars poked back up above the 200 SMA today. I took a small position at the re-test of the 200 SMA and I will not add to the position until prices break back down through this level.
Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
HE – Lean Hogs
Hogs were higher today posting a bullish full bodied candle but did not trade high enough to intersect with the 15 SMA.
I re-entered my Short position in Lean Hogs today.
GE – Eurodollar
Trade: Short 2 contracts of December Eurodollar
Entry Price: 99.08
Risk: 99.14 risking $300
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90
Daily Comment: Eurodollars continued higher today before reversing at the 20 SMA to finish the day lower back at the 200 SMA.
HE – Lean Hogs
Trade: Short 1 contract of October Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.6025
Risk: $0.6220 risking $0
Target: $0.46
Daily Comment: Hogs continued higher at the open before reversing strongly at the 20 SMA to finish the day lower and post a candle with a long upper shadow.
Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
GC – Gold
Gold is wedged between the 61.8% retracement of the recent corrective range and the 40 SMA that has been providing support. As these two levels converge a low risk buying opportunity may arise.
I added to my Short position in Eurodollars today.
GE – Eurodollar
Trade: Short 4 contracts of December Eurodollar
Entry Price: 99.08
Risk: 99.14 risking $600
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90
Daily Comment: Eurodollars rallied today coming with a tick of my Stop before reversing to finish the day back under the 20 SMA.
HE – Lean Hogs
Trade: Short 1 contract of October Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.6025
Risk: $0.6220 risking $0
Target: $0.46
Daily Comment: Hogs continue to be supported at the 0.58 level rallying from this level today back up to the 15 SMA and posting a bullish full bodied candle.
Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
GC – Gold
Gold rallied up to the 61.8% retracement mark today before reversing to finish the day slightly lower back at the 40 SMA.
- Entered and Stopped out of a Long position in Sugar for a loss.
- Entered a Short position in Eurodollars.
- Entered a Short position in Lean Hogs.
I’ll start the weekly update with comments on my open positions and closed trades for the week.
GE - Eurodollar
Eurodollars broke down through the 200 SMA early in the week but recovered to finish the week back above this level. Prices attempted to rally on Thursday and Friday but were held back at the 20 SMA.
HE – Lean Hogs
Hogs attempted to rally a number of times this week but were sold off at each attempt but finished the week strongly posting a bullish full bodied candle. If prices can surpass the 20 SMA a short term change of trend might occur.
SB – Sugar
Sugar broke through the 61.8% retracement of the recent corrective range on Monday but was unable to follow through crashing back down through this level on Wednesday before finding support at the 40 SMA.
Below are my comments on other markets I see opportunities in.
GC – Gold
Gold tried to surpass the 61.8% retracement level a number of times this week but was unable to do so. Each failed attempt was supported at the 40 SMA. With the 40 SMA and the 61.8% retracement level converging I would expect to see Gold break out one way or the other.
LE – Live Cattle
Cattle was mostly sideways this week attempting to decline on both Thursday and Friday but it was well supported on each attempt. Prices are approaching the flattening 200 SMA and the 61.8% retracement of the recent range and if these levels can be exceeded it may present a good buying opportunity.
NG – Natural Gas
Natural Gas prices collapsed this week trading down through the 40 SMA which has been providing support recently. Prices held the 200 SMA on Friday and this level will need to continue to hold for a bullish outcome to prevail.
CL – Crude Oil
Oil traded up strongly on Thursday and Friday back up to the 200 SMA. A break of this level with impulsiveness will look bullish but I would prefer to see prices above the 61.8% retracement level at $47.69 before making this conclusion.
DX – US Dollar Index
The Dollar turned lower on Monday and continued lower for the rest of the week finishing the week below the 40 SMA. I am neutral where the Dollar is concerned at this stage.
KC – Coffee
Coffee fell from the 40 SMA on Monday and continued lower for the rest of the week finishing the week at a new low for the recent corrective range.
CT – Cotton
The hypothesis last week that the break of the major 61.8% retracement level was questionable turned out to be correct with Cotton prices collapsing on Tuesday and trading back down to the 40 SMA to finish the week.
Copper attempted to rally in the middle of the week but was unable to surpass the 61.8% retracement of the recent range. The price action on Friday was negative but the 200 SMA held at this stage.
ZS – Soybeans
Any rallies in Soybeans this week were unable to surpass the 20 SMA each time but prices continue to hold above the 61.8% retracement of the recent uptrend. The candle each day this week was indecisive and further evidence is required to make an assumption about the next direction for Soybean prices.
ZL – Soybean Oil
Soybean Oil rallied strongly this week closing the week above the rising 200 SMA. If prices can also surpass the 61.8% retracement level at 33.69 an implied target of 40.03 could be possible.
6E - Euro
The Euro traded back above the 200 SMA again and traded within a tight range around this level for the week.
ZN - 10 Year Note
The Notes rallied back up to the 40 SMA this week after the sell off last Friday and traded above and below this level for the rest of the week.
Trade: Short 4 contracts of December Eurodollar
Entry Price: 99.08
Risk: 99.14 risking $600
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90
Daily Comment: Eurodollars were higher during the overnight session but fell back during the day session to finish back towards the 20 SMA.
HE – Lean Hogs
Trade: Short 1 contract of October Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.6025
Risk: $0.6220 risking $0
Target: $0.46
Daily Comment: Hogs gapped higher on the open and continued higher for the rest of the day surpassing the 20 SMA and posting a bullish full bodied candle. I’m in two minds as to whether to exit now or wait to see how prices react near the 40 SMA which is not far away.
Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
GC – Gold
Gold traded in a very small range today posting another indecisive candle but continues to hold above the 40 SMA.
ZL – Soybean Oil
Soybean Oil was up strongly during the overnight session confirming the break of the 200 SMA and continued higher during the day session to trade up to the 61.8% retracement of the recent range. Unfortunately the rapid rise during the overnight session prohibited my entry on the break of the 200 SMA during the day session as prices moved outside my risk tolerance parameters. I will look to enter on the break of the 61.8% retracement level instead.
Trade: Short 4 contracts of December Eurodollar
Entry Price: 99.08
Risk: 99.14 risking $600
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90
Daily Comment: Eurodollars were higher again during the overnight session pushing past my Stop level. I waited for the CPI data release before triggering my Stop and the market retreated after the release to finish the day lower and post a candle with a long upper shadow.
HE – Lean Hogs
Trade: Short 1 contract of October Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.6025
Risk: $0.6220 risking $0
Target: $0.46
Daily Comment: Hogs opened higher but quickly reversed to finish the day lower back down at the short term moving averages posting a bearish full bodied candle.
Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
GC – Gold
Gold traded above the 61.8% retracement level again today but couldn’t hold onto the gains finishing the day slightly higher and posting a candle with an upper shadow.
ZL – Soybean Oil
Soybean Oil was lower during the overnight session trading back down below the 61.8% retracement level but recovered to finish the day higher and close back above this level. I’m looking for a close above the 34 level before taking a position.
SB – Sugar
Sugar traded above the 61.8% retracement of the recent range but closed off the highs right back at the 61.8% retracement level posting a candle with an upper shadow.
Trade: Short 4 contracts of December Eurodollar
Entry Price: 99.08
Risk: 99.14 risking $600
Target: Short term - 98.30, Long Term – 97.90
Daily Comment: Eurodollars were lower early in the session trading back below the 200 SMA after comments by Fed members about rising interest rates but reversed after the FOMC minutes to finish the day only slightly lower and post a candle with a lower shadow.
HE – Lean Hogs
Trade: Short 1 contract of October Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.6025
Risk: $0.6220 risking $0
Target: $0.46
Daily Comment: Hogs bounced off the minor 61.8% retracement level today finishing higher and posting a bullish full bodied candle.
Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
GC – Gold
Gold bounced off the 40 SMA again today and continues to trade within the range between the 40 SMA and the 61.8% retracement level.
ZL – Soybean Oil
Soybean Oil surged higher again during the overnight and followed through during the day session but finished off the highs posting a candle with an upper shadow. Unfortunately the rally in the overnight session took price too far outside my risk tolerance levels to take a position during the day session. I will wait for a pullback to take a position.
SB – Sugar
Sugar failed at the 61.8% retracement of the recent range today trading back down to the 40 SMA and posting a bearish full bodied candle.
