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Muttoez Trading Journal
Started:April 1st, 2016 (08:47 PM) by muttoez Views / Replies:8,510 / 286
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Muttoez Trading Journal

Old April 6th, 2016, 08:25 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Review of April 6 Trading Action

Here are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.

GF Feeder Cattle

Comments: Prices moved higher to start the session after yesterday’s limit down move but reversed during the session posting a new low at the close.

The low of the day has triggered my entry parameters but I was unable to enter a Short position as I don’t have sufficient margin. With the margin requirements of my current positions using 75% of my account balance it is unwise to enter any new positions as I won’t have enough of a buffer. In fact, at 75% of my account balance I am probably already holding too many positions.

This type of scenario is one of the hardest things about trying to trade futures with a relatively small amount of capital. A trading system requires you to take every signal as you never know which trades are going to be winners or losers. I hope that not being able to enter this position does not cost me a potential winner.

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Old April 7th, 2016, 12:57 PM   #12 (permalink)
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This type of scenario is one of the hardest things about trying to trade futures with a relatively small amount of capital. A trading system requires you to take every signal as you never know which trades are going to be winners or losers. I hope that not being able to enter this position does not cost me a potential winner.

I hope you don't mind me throwing 2 cents in here. First off, I really like your journal as it is a bit different from what most of the other folks in this part of the forum are posting, and I'm interested in what you are trying to do. I do hope you keep it up.

I've found when trading with lower frequency, as you appear to be in swing trading, it takes a while to get enough trades in to get a statistically valid sample of your method. Swing trading has clear advantages, but this is just one additional thing that is compounded by low capitalization. As you pointed out, if you were able to take more simultaneous trades, you'd even out your results a lot better.

That said, when you talk about your method, and not taking every presented setup, I believe that in the longer run this shouldn't matter. (happy to hear others' thoughts on whether I'm totally wrong on this -- I've heard people say it is crucial to always take every setup, but I'm not so sure). The point being that, in the long run, as long as the setups you don't take are randomly distributed and not cherry-picked, your stats should eventually hit the same basic place over a large sample. In other words, if you take a sample of 1000 trades, and randomly miss 500 of them, your expectancy should be about the same across both sets of the 500 you took and 500 you didn't.

The problem is that, as you've said, you "hope" this particular missed setup isn't going to turn out to be a winner. Unfortunately, that's the way it goes over small samples. It may be a winner, but that shouldn't deter you from taking the next setup you are able to take, or not taking the next setup you aren't able to take. I watch multiple markets and if I'm in one trade during the morning, I won't add another trade, even if that setup looks even better than the one I'm already in. I miss it. When I'm asleep, I miss those setups too.

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Old April 7th, 2016, 06:39 PM   #13 (permalink)
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That said, when you talk about your method, and not taking every presented setup, I believe that in the longer run this shouldn't matter. (happy to hear others' thoughts on whether I'm totally wrong on this -- I've heard people say it is crucial to always take every setup, but I'm not so sure). The point being that, in the long run, as long as the setups you don't take are randomly distributed and not cherry-picked, your stats should eventually hit the same basic place over a large sample. In other words, if you take a sample of 1000 trades, and randomly miss 500 of them, your expectancy should be about the same across both sets of the 500 you took and 500 you didn't.

The problem is that, as you've said, you "hope" this particular missed setup isn't going to turn out to be a winner. Unfortunately, that's the way it goes over small samples. It may be a winner, but that shouldn't deter you from taking the next setup you are able to take, or not taking the next setup you aren't able to take. I watch multiple markets and if I'm in one trade during the morning, I won't add another trade, even if that setup looks even better than the one I'm already in. I miss it. When I'm asleep, I miss those setups too.

Thanks for your response. Happy for anybody to comment on my journal and provide feedback.

Firstly, I'm glad you like my journal. I am enjoying writing it and I plan on keeping it up.

I think you're probably right that over a large enough sample size it doesn't really become an issue. I think this particular trade felt more painful because Feeder Cattle has been my most profitable market over the last 12 months and I probably have a bias to trading this market at present.

The reality for a discretionary trader is that you are going to miss trades. Its not possible to see every setup and be ready for every opportunity. It would be great if the reason for missing a setup wasn't because of lack of funds and maybe in the future it won't be. Until then I will just keep taking trades when they present themselves and I have the available funds to take the trade.

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Old April 8th, 2016, 05:40 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Review of April 7 Trading Action

I exited my Short position in the 10 Year Notes at the start of the day session and accidently entered a Long position during the session.

Posted a small gain today with gains in Gold offset by losses in the US Dollar Index and Soybean Oil.

Here are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.

ZL – Soybean Oil

Trade: Long 2 contracts of May Soybean Oil
Entry Price: $0.3195
Risk: stop moved to $0.3339 risking $0
Target: Initial Target - $0.3670, Longer Term Target - $0.4270

Daily Comment: Another spinning top today with both an upper and lower shadow. The price is still holding above the 15 SMA and there is still no evidence that the uptrend has ceased at this stage.

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Trade: Long 2 contracts of July Soybean Oil
Entry Price: $0.3451
Risk: stop placed at 0.3365 risking $1,000
Target: Initial Target $0.3640, Longer Term Target - $0.43
Daily Comment: Another spinning top today with both an upper and lower shadow. The price is still holding above the 15 SMA and there is still no evidence that the uptrend has ceased at this stage.

QO – Mini Gold

Trade: Long 1 contract of Jun Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,230
Risk: stop placed at $1,207 risking $1,150
Target: $1,600

Daily Comment: Gold rose strongly today finishing with a full bodied candle. Gold closed above its first major hurdle today, being the short term moving averages. Gold now needs to surpass the 61.8% retracement of the recent range to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

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DX – US Dollar Index

Trade: Short 1 contract of the US Dollar Index
Entry Price: 94.315
Risk: stop placed at 95.60 risking $1,160
Target: Initial Target 93.50, Longer Term Target - 88

Daily Comment: The US Dollar was lower during the overnight session posting new lows. The price rallied during the day session finishing higher and posting a candle with a lower shadow. The next direction of the US Dollar is still unclear at this stage.

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ZN 10 Year Note

Trade: Short 2 contracts of the US 10 Year Note
Entry Price: 130 27/32
Risk: stop placed at 131 5/32 risking $625
Target: Initial Target 127, Longer Term Target – 116
Exit Price: 130 28.5/32
Trade Grade: 4/5

Daily Comment: I was uncomfortable holding a Short position in the Notes with the fundamental backdrop. My first reaction to overcome this was to tighten my Stop to 131 5/32 cutting my risk down to $625. But then before going to bed, when prices were basically back at my entry point, I thought to myself if I am not comfortable holding this position and I think the price is going to rise then what is the point of holding the position and waiting for the Stop to get hit. So I just exited the trade instead.

However, when I exited the position I forgot to cancel my Stop order. So when I woke up in the middle of the night to check the markets I thought it was strange to still see the Notes in my list of positions. It was only when I woke up this morning that I realised what had happened. So I know have a Long position in the Notes.

I have decided to stick with the Long position for now based on the day’s candle and my bias is bullish.

Trade: Long 2 contracts of the US 10 Year Note
Entry Price: 131 5/32
Risk: stop placed at 130 15/32 risking $1,375
Target: 135 16/32

Reasons for entering the trade:

As noted above the entry to this trade was accidental.

Technical Factors: Price has surpassed the 61.8% retracement of the recent range and the candle was full bodied.

Fundamental Factors: The timing of rate rises, the number of rises and the pace of the rises appear to be being pushed back.

Daily Comment: The Notes rose strongly during the session posting a full bodied candle.

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Old April 8th, 2016, 07:56 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Review of April 8 Trading Action

Futures Edge on FIO
No trades today.

A small loss today with losses in Soybean Oil and the 10 Year Notes outweighing gains in the US Dollar Index.

Here are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.

ZL – Soybean Oil

Trade: Long 2 contracts of May Soybean Oil
Entry Price: $0.3195
Risk: stop moved to $0.3339 risking $0
Target: Initial Target - $0.3670, Longer Term Target - $0.4270

Daily Comment: Soybean Oil was lower again today. It breached the 15 SMA and the 161.8% extension during the session but closed back above both these levels posting a candle with a lower shadow.

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Trade: Long 2 contracts of July Soybean Oil
Entry Price: $0.3451
Risk: stop placed at 0.3365 risking $1,000
Target: Initial Target $0.3640, Longer Term Target - $0.43

Daily Comment: Soybean Oil was lower again today. It breached the 15 SMA and the 161.8% extension during the session but closed back above both these levels posting a candle with a lower shadow.

QO – Mini Gold

Trade: Long 1 contract of Jun Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,230
Risk: stop placed at $1,207 risking $1,150
Target: $1,600

Daily Comment: Gold moved lower today but finished the day almost unchanged posting a doji candle with a lower shadow. Importantly Gold closed above its short term moving averages.

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DX – US Dollar Index

Trade: Short 1 contract of the US Dollar Index
Entry Price: 94.315
Risk: stop placed at 95.60 risking $1,160
Target: Initial Target 93.50, Longer Term Target - 88

Daily Comment: The US Dollar was lower today but did not post a new low. Today was the first day in the last 6 sessions the US Dollar Index posted a candle with any kind of body and suggests further weakness ahead.

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ZN 10 Year Note

Trade: Long 2 contracts of the US 10 Year Note
Entry Price: 131 5/32
Risk: stop placed at 130 15/32 risking $1,375
Target: 135 16/32

Daily Comment: The Notes retested the 61.8% retracement level today but finished the session off the lows posting a candle with a lower shadow.

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Old April 9th, 2016, 08:25 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Week in Review - 4 - 8 April Pt I

Trades for the Week:

- Exited Long position in Sugar for a profit
- Entered a Long position in Soybean Oil to pyramid my existing position
- Entered and exited a Short position in the 10 Year Notes for a small loss
- Entered a Long position in the 10 Year Notes

It was a choppy trading week for me with no strong trends forming in any of my positions. I finished the week with a loss of 3%.

I’ll start the weekly update with comments on my open positions at the end of the week.

ZL – Soybean Oil

The rally in Soybean Oil paused this week after peaking in Monday’s trade. The price is currently being supported by the 15 SMA and the 161.8% extension of the recent range. There is no evidence that the uptrend has ceased at this stage.

There are significant fundamental reports due to be released in the upcoming week which is likely to determine the next move in Soybean Oil. On Monday the Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release monthly production figures and on Tuesday the USDA supply and demand report is released. I will be monitoring the price action on release of both these reports closely.

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QO – Mini Gold

Gold dipped early in the week but finished the week strongly and closed back above its short term moving averages suggesting that the recent uptrend may resume. I am looking to see Gold surpass the 61.8% retracement of the recent range at 1,257 to confirm another move higher.

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DX – US Dollar Index

The US Dollar finished lower again this week but was not convincing with 4 of the 5 day’s posting doji candles. At this stage the downtrend remains intact but I am looking for further weakness to conclude the next move in the US Dollar Index will be down.

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ZN - 10 Year Note

The 10 Year Note finished the week higher again on the back of favourable fundamental news on the timing of rate rises by the Fed. The price surpassed the 61.8% retracement level in Thursday’s trade but retested this level on Friday. Further evidence is required to conclude the next move in the 10 Year Note is likely to be up.

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Old April 9th, 2016, 08:27 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Week in Review - 4 - 8 April Pt II

Next up I’ll have a look at the other markets that I have traded or been watching during the week.

SB – Sugar

I exited my Sugar trade at the start of the week when the price broke key support at about $1.50. Sugar continued to trade lower for the rest of the week but finished well of its lows to end the week. Prices were sharply lower on Friday trading down to the 61.8% retracement of the recent uptrend before rallying back strongly to finish the week back up at the 40 SMA.

The fundamental picture still supports a bullish outcome on Sugar due to the expected production shortfall and Friday’s price action was certainly positive. I will continue to monitor Sugar for further evidence that the uptrend has resumed.

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KC – Coffee

I abandoned my bullish bias on Coffee at the start of the week when prices moved sharply lower. Prices continued to move lower throughout the week finishing towards the lows. I am neutral on Coffee at this point and I will need to see prices surpass the 200 SMA again to renew my bullish bias.

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GF - Feeder Cattle

Feeder Cattle was lower again this week but finished well of its lows. Prices gapped back through the 61.8% retracement mark on Friday negating my previous sell signal. The price remains in the rectangle channel of the past 4 months and prices will need to break out of this rectangle to see a new trend develop.

I would have probably traded Feeder Cattle this week but I was unable to take the trade due to lack of margin. In hindsight this has probably worked out for the best. Whilst the price did break through the 61.8% retracement mark, it was its 3rd attempt and prices were still within the rectangle channel so it probably wasn’t the best opportunity to trade to begin with.

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Old April 9th, 2016, 08:31 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Week in Review - 4 - 8 April Pt III

Lastly, I’ll review some other markets that I’m watching which may move onto my opportunities list in the coming week.

ZS – Nov - New Crop Soybeans

New Crop Soybeans may have staged a bullish break when prices broke through the 200 SMA after a significant downtrend. I am monitoring the 61.8% retracement of the recent range at $9.33 for additional confirmation.

If the uptrend is confirmed it is unlikely that I will take the trade as I already have a large position in the Soy complex through my position in Soybean Oil. I prefer to be Long Soybean Oil rather than Soybeans as Soybean Oil looks to be the strongest member of the complex at the moment and has been leading the rally.

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HE – Lean Hogs

I traded Lean Hogs when prices broke through the 200 SMA but exited my trade in late March when prices breached the 15 SMA to lock in some profit. The rising 200 SMA was tested this week and Lean Hogs bounced from this level providing evidence that the recent uptrend may be ready to resume. I am looking for confirmation of this with a break above the 61.8% retracement of the recent range at $0.8270.

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HG – Copper

Copper attempted to surpass the 200 SMA recently but failed and the price has retreated to the 61.8% retracement of the recent range. If this level is broken it is likely that the long term downtrend will resume offering an opportunity to take a Short trade.

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CL – Crude Oil

Oil finished the week well rallying strongly off the recent lows. The rally finished the week at the 61.8% retracement of the recent high and low at $39.72. If the price can surpass this level I will be looking for Oil to continue to rally towards the 161.8% extension at about $47. This extension level coincides with the falling 200 SMA which is likely to act as strong resistance. I will be looking to Short Oil if prices can trade up to $47.

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Old April 11th, 2016, 07:26 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Review of April 11 Trading Action

No trades today.

Gains today in both Gold and the US Dollar Index.

Here are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.

ZL – Soybean Oil

Trade: Long 2 contracts of May Soybean Oil
Entry Price: $0.3195
Risk: stop moved to $0.3339 risking $0
Target: Initial Target - $0.3670, Longer Term Target - $0.4270

Daily Comment: Soybean Oil was higher during the overnight session after the release of the Palm Oil production report in Malaysia but finished the day slightly lower posting a doji candle with an upper shadow. The price is still holding the 15 SMA and the 161.8% extension.

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Trade: Long 2 contracts of July Soybean Oil
Entry Price: $0.3451
Risk: stop placed at 0.3365 risking $1,000
Target: Initial Target $0.3640, Longer Term Target - $0.43

Daily Comment: Soybean Oil was higher during the overnight session after the release of the Palm Oil production report in Malaysia but finished the day slightly lower posting a doji candle with an upper shadow. The price is still holding the 15 SMA and the 161.8% extension.

QO – Mini Gold

Trade: Long 1 contract of Jun Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,230
Risk: stop placed at $1,219.50 risking $525
Target: $1,600

Daily Comment: Gold tested the 61.8% retracement of the recent range during the overnight session. I used the rally in the overnight session to tighten my stop to 1,219.50 at the start of the day session halving the amount risked on the trade. Gold finished the day slightly above the 61.8% retracement posting a full bodied candle.

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DX – US Dollar Index

Trade: Short 1 contract of the US Dollar Index
Entry Price: 94.315
Risk: stop reduced to 95.15 risking $835
Target: Initial Target 93.50, Longer Term Target - 88

Daily Comment: The US Dollar Index was lower again during the overnight session. I tightened my Stop again at the start of the day session to 95.15. Prices continued to move lower during the day session but finished off the lows posting a spinning top with both an upper and lower shadow.

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ZN - 10 Year Note

Trade: Long 2 contracts of the US 10 Year Note
Entry Price: 131 5/32
Risk: stop placed at 130 15/32 risking $1,375
Target: 135 16/32

Daily Comment: The Notes retested the 61.8% retracement level again today but finished the session off the lows posting a doji candle with a lower shadow.

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Old April 11th, 2016, 07:27 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Review of April 11 Trading Action


Here are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.

HG - Copper

Comments: Copper was unable to breach the 61.8% retracement level again today trading in a very tight range and posting a doji candle with an upper shadow.

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ZS – New Crop Soybeans

Comments: Soybeans in the new crop were higher again today surpassing the 61.8% retracement level of the recent range and posting a full bodied candle. The price action suggests that a bullish break has been staged in Soybeans.

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