Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
- Entered a Short position in Lean Hogs
- Entered a Long position in Copper
A solid week with gains in both Lean Hogs and Sugar.
I’ll start the weekly update with comments on my open positions at the end of the week.
HE – Lean Hogs
Hogs broke the 61.8% retracement of the recent uptrend early in the week and then broke sharply lower as the week progressed.
HG – Copper
Copper tried to break higher during the week but continues to run into resistance around the 2.28 level. The price action on Friday was negative wiping out most of the week’s gains. If the negative price action continues on Monday I will look to scratch the trade.
Next up I’ll have a look at the other markets that I have traded or been watching during the week.
SB – Sugar
Sugar held the 40 SMA each day this week and finished the week slightly higher. I would rather see prices reverse quickly when intersecting with a moving average rather than drifting sideways so I won’t be looking to enter a position in Sugar until prices exceed the 61.8% retracement of the recent range.
DX – US Dollar Index
The Dollar broke through the 200 SMA early in the week and looks to have consolidated the break with the bullish price action to finish the week. I have reset the 61.8% retracement to the larger range and will look to enter a Long position if this level can be surpassed.
NG – Natural Gas
Natural Gas traded down to the 40 SMA during the week and bounced strongly from this level to finish the week higher. The price action on the intersection with the 40 SMA looks promising for a bullish outcome in Natural Gas.
CL – Crude Oil
Crude broke down below the 100 SMA on Tuesday and re-tested the 100 SMA on Wednesday and Thursday before breaking sharply lower to finish the week lower.
Soybean prices collapsed this week but bounced from the 61.8% retracement of the recent uptrend to end the week off the lows.
KC – Coffee
Coffee continued to run into resistance at the 161.8% extension level early in the week and broke sharply lower on Friday to finish the week much lower. Prices are close to intersecting with the rising 40 SMA for the first time since Coffee broke the 200 SMA and this level may be a good area to enter a Long position.
GC – Gold
Gold broke lower on Wednesday and Thursday trading down towards the May highs but bounced from this level.
6E - Euro
The Euro was lower this week and closed just below the 61.8% retracement of the recent range to finish the week. A decisive break of this level may be a good area to enter a Short position.
ZN - 10 Year Note
The Notes finished the week higher after holding the 40 SMA each day this week.
Below are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.
HE – Lean Hogs
Trade: Short 1 contract of August Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.77525
Risk: $0.7965 risking $850
Target: $0.58
Daily Comment: Hogs popped higher on the open but quickly fell back. Prices finished off the lows to close the day slightly higher.
HG – Copper
Trade: Long 1 contract of September Copper
Entry Price: $2.22
Risk: $2.195 risking $625
Target: $2.52
Daily Comment: Copper was lower today trading back down to the 61.8% retracement level and the 20 SMA. Prices bounced from these levels to finish the day off the lows and close above the boundary line.
Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
DX – US Dollar Index
The dollar traded in a small range today attempting to push higher during the overnight session before falling back to finish the day lower.
NG – Natural Gas
Natural Gas was higher during the overnight session but turned lower during the day session to finish the day lower.
Below are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.
HE – Lean Hogs
Trade: Short 1 contract of August Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.77525
Risk: $0.7965 risking $850
Target: $0.58
Daily Comment: Hogs were lower today posting a bearish full bodied candle.
HG – Copper
Trade: Long 1 contract of September Copper
Entry Price: $2.22
Risk: $2.195 risking $625
Target: $2.52
Daily Comment: Copper was lower again today trading back down to the 61.8% retracement level and the 20 SMA. Prices bounced from these levels to finish the day off the lows and close above the boundary line again.
Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
DX – US Dollar Index
The dollar was lower today but finished off the lows posting a candle with a lower shadow. I entered a buy order back at the 200 SMA before the start of the day session but prices didn’t go low enough to trigger my order.
NG – Natural Gas
Natural Gas failed at the 20 SMA today trading back down to the 40 SMA and holding at this level.
KC – Coffee
Coffee intersected with the 40SMA yesterday and reversed to finish the day off the lows. Coffee posted an indecisive doji candle today and held at the 40SMA.
I closed out my Copper trade today for a small loss.
Solid gains in Hogs today.
Below are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.
HE – Lean Hogs
Trade: Short 1 contract of August Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.77525
Risk: $0.7965 risking $850
Target: $0.58
Daily Comment: Hogs were sharply lower today posting another bearish full bodied candle.
HG – Copper
Trade: Long 1 contract of September Copper
Entry Price: $2.22
Exit Price: $2.207
Trade Grade: 2.5/5
Trade Comment: No issues with the trade. All rules followed.
Daily Comment: Copper was lower again closing below the 61.8% retracement level and the boundary line. The close below these levels provided the impetus to exit the trade.
Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
DX – US Dollar Index
The dollar traded higher and lower today finishing the day slightly lower. Prices went within a tick of triggering my entry order today.
NG – Natural Gas
Natural Gas attempting to move higher again today but could not surpass the short term moving averages. Prices closed lower back at the 40 SMA.
KC – Coffee
Coffee was lower today trading below the 40 SMA before recovering to close back above this level. The price action since the intersection with the 40 SMA has not been encouraging and I won’t be looking at entering Coffee until further evidence shows that the correction has found a bottom.
Trade: Short 1 contract of August Lean Hogs
Entry Price: $0.77525
Exit Price: $0.69
Trade Grade: 4/5
Trade Comment: After the false start, the second attempt to Short the Hogs has been a good one. Volume has switched to the October contract and I plan on rolling into this contract next week.
Daily Comment: Hogs attempted to rally today but could not hold onto the gains finishing the day practically unchanged.
Below are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
DX – US Dollar Index
The dollar was sharply lower toady breaking below the 200 SMA and posting a bearish full bodied candle.
NG – Natural Gas
Natural Gas didn’t follow through after the strong rally yesterday posting an indecisive doji candle.
KC – Coffee
Coffee rallied strongly today after holding the 40 SMA again. If prices can surpass the 61.8% retracement of the recent range it might be a good opportunity to enter a Long position.
A slow start to the new trading year (I operate my trading business on an Australian financial year basis from July – June). Only three trades opened during the month consisting of two trading themes.
Some changes to my trading plan that I have implemented for the new year are as follows:
1. Average Risk Per Trade – due to FX changes my previous maximum risk of $US1,000 per trade is no longer sustainable. My average risk per trade target for the coming year is now $US750.
2. Total Risk Per Capital – In addition to measuring risk on a per trade basis I will also monitor risk on a total capital basis with a target of less than 10% of capital being at risk at any given point in time. I have found that even though I may have a number of trades open which on a per trade basis do not exceed my risk tolerance levels, when the risk of each trade is added together and viewed on a total capital basis the combined risk to my capital has been too high increasing the risk of significant drawdowns.
3. Trade Setups – I have 6 trade setups in my trading plan. 3 are long term positional trade setups and 3 are shorter term swing setups. For the coming year I am going to focus only on the 3 long term setups as I view these as my highest quality setups. I expect this will lead to significantly less trading but also less volatile capital movements.
I have also started a new monthly tracking sheet of the key metrics I wish to analyse in my trading. A modified version of this tracking sheet is below. The stats for July look good but with only 2 trades worth of data they are pretty meaningless at this stage.
Comments on my two trading themes for the month are below.
HE – Lean Hogs
The Lean Hogs trade started poorly when I took an anticipatory position prior to prices breaking the 61.8% retracement level and positioned my Stop too tight getting stopped out quickly. Things turned around when I re-entered the trade on the break of the 61.8% retracement level with the initial Stop never being challenged and prices falling sharply after the break. I closed out the trade at the end of the month as the volume in the August contract was diminishing and the October contract has become the front month. There is no evidence of a change in trend at this stage so I will roll into the October contract in August and see if this trend has any further to run.
HG – Copper
Copper attempted to break higher a number of times during July but could not surpass the 2.28 level. Near the end of the month prices closed back below the boundary line and the 61.8% retracement level for the first time since my entry so I decided to close out the trade even though my initial risk level had not yet been met. I could have been better on the exit reducing the loss closer to break even. Prices did not continue lower after the break and finished the month back above the 61.8% retracement level potentially negating the negative price action. However, I will not look to re-enter Copper again until the prior highs at 2.32 have been broken.
