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I had two open orders this week that did not result in trades.
1. I had a buy order in October Sugar at 16.80 for another pyramid attempt but my order did not get hit on Tuesday and I pulled the order before the start of regular trading on Wednesday due to the further weakness in the overnight session. Unfortunately the order would have been triggered on Wednesday right before the big run up for the rest of the week.
2. I also had a buy order for August Gold on Friday which was not triggered. This order remains open next week.
After losses early in the week the run in Sugar to finish the week helped turn things around and I finished the week with a gain.
I’ll start the weekly update with comments on my open positions at the end of the week.
SB – Sugar
Sugar was weak at the start of the week but reversed strongly on Wednesday and followed through for the rest of the week. It looks like the next leg up is now under way in Sugar.
QM – Mini Crude Oil
Oil continues to trade in a small range between $48 and $50. Prices touched the psychological $50 per barrel mark during the week but were unable to close above this level.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Next up I’ll have a look at the other markets that I have traded or been watching during the week.
GC – Gold
Gold failed the 40 SMA and 61.8% retracement of the recent range during the week. The April low at $1,206 is the next potential level of support and if this fails I would expect to see prices trade back down to the 200 SMA.
ZC – New Crop Corn
Corn rallied strongly this week and now sits just below the major 61.8% retracement mark at $4.15. If prices can exceed this level with impulsiveness a target towards $5 could be possible.
Two new markets that will join the watch list next week are Cotton and Wheat.
CT – December Cotton
Cotton exceeded the 200 SMA and 61.8% retracement of the recent range with impulsiveness on Thursday and may be ready for a run higher after a couple of failed attempts to break the 200 SMA.
ZW – New Crop Wheat
Wheat has lagged behind Soybeans and Corn during the recent rally in the grains. It broke higher this week and has traded up towards the 200 SMA. Prices will need to break $5.20 with impulsiveness to confirm a bullish break.
Soybean Meal met the initial target at the 161.8% extension of the recent range at the end of the week and looks to be headed toward the contract high at $391.
HE – Lean Hogs
Hogs briefly broke the 200 SMA at the start of the week but rallied strongly on Thursday to close back above the 40 and 200 SMA’s. Prices continue to trade within the 6 month wedge.
DX – US Dollar Index
The US Dollar was mostly sideways this week struggling to exceed the 61.8% retracement of the major recent range.
ZN - 10 Year Note
The Notes were also sideways for most of the week and continued to be supported at the 100 SMA.
ESTX50 – Euro Stoxx50
Prices are rallying towards the steeply falling 200 SMA at 3,120 which may act as resistance and offer a good Short setup.
A fairly flat day today with gains in Oil offset by losses in Sugar.
Here are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.
SB – Sugar
Trade: Long 2 contracts of July Sugar
Entry Price: 16.05
Risk: 16.37 risking $0
Target: 18.42
Daily Comment: Sugar made a new high for the move yesterday before trading lower. Prices were supported today and yesterday at the 17.20 level.
QM – Mini Crude Oil
Trade: Short 1 contract of July Mini Crude Oil
Entry Price: $48.225
Risk: $50.60 risking $1,187.50
Target: $38.32
Daily Comment: Oil briefly traded over the $50 mark again early this week but has quickly retreated back below $49 remaining in a tight range. A very small range today with prices closing back below the 61.8% retracement mark.
A very poor result in May with a significant drawdown suffered. The result looks a lot worse than it actually is as the majority of the drawdown related to losses of open profits rather than capital losses. This kind of result happens regularly trading a relatively small account and is just part and parcel of trading.
My trading was a lot less active in May than it was in April. I suspected that the new journal contributed to trading more than usual in April as my increased focus on my trading probably lead to viewing more opportunities as good trade setups than I should have. I believe that this has now been corrected.
My risk management was also less active in May compared to April. I also suspected that the public nature of the journal was contributing to micromanaging my stops more than I would usually. I moved my Stops much less in May in line with my usual trading approach.
I’ll start the monthly update with comments on the positions I am still holding at the end of the month.
SB – Sugar
I closed out a good trade in Sugar at the start of April when it broke key support to lock in some profit on the trade. Even though I exited the trade the price action at the time did not confirm a change in trend according to my trading approach. When prices appeared to have bottomed in mid-April and began to rise again I was looking for a suitable point to re-enter the trade.
During May Sugar prices broke the 61.8% retracement of the range with impulsiveness and I used this break to re-establish my Long position. The position is performing well at present and continues to move towards the initial target.
QM – Mini Crude Oil
Oil continued its strong rally in early May and reached the 61.8% retracement of a major range which had the potential to act as strong resistance. This level allowed me to enter a Short position with a Stop above the psychological $50 mark and a high risk reward.
Since entering the trade Oil has traded sideways posting indecisive candles each day leading into the end of the month. This trade could still go either at this point.
I continued to use my relatively new strategy of moving the Stop to break even once the trade shows a profit of at least $2,000 and was stopped out at break even during May. Prices continued higher after I was stopped out and my original Stop would have been triggered.
SB – Sugar
A mini flash crash in Sugar provided an opportunity to pyramid the trade. I got the Stop placement wrong on this attempt and was stopped out for a loss. Had I placed my Stop at the low of the mini-flash crash bar (which was the most logical place for the Stop) I would still be in this trade.
KC – Coffee
Coffee looked to have staged another bullish break when prices surpassed the 200 SMA and the 61.8% retracement of the recent range with impulsiveness. This turned out to be another false break and I entered and was stopped out of the trade on the same day for a loss. I had waited for prices to pull back to the 61.8% retracement mark to lower the risk on the trade but the reversal candle pattern on the previous trading day raised alarm bells and I should have followed my instincts and pulled the order based on this price action.
QO – Mini Gold
The recent uptrend in Gold began to falter in late May and I decided to exit the trade when prices broke the 40 SMA to lock in a profit as the contract I was trading was coming up to expiry.
Gold prices continued lower after I exited the trade trading back down towards the March low at $1,206. I viewed this level as the last real test for the uptrend and I believed it offered an opportunity to re-establish my Long position with a very tight Stop. I entered and was stopped out of this trade for a small loss on the same day at the end of the month. This entry was triggered during the Sunday night session before the markets were closed for Memorial Day on Monday. I had forgotten that the markets were still open in the overnight session otherwise I would have cancelled my order. This was not a good time to have open orders in the market but thankfully the amount at risk on this trade was much smaller than my usual risk.
Here are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.
SB – Sugar
Trade: Long 2 contracts of July Sugar
Entry Price: 16.05
Risk: 17.93 risking $0
Target: 18.42
Daily Comment: Sugar continued to surge higher today moving through the initial target at 18.42 and posting another bullish full bodied candle. I have now amended my Sop using the 161.8% extension level.
QM – Mini Crude Oil
Trade: Short 1 contract of July Mini Crude Oil
Entry Price: $48.225
Risk: $50.60 risking $1,187.50
Target: $38.32
Daily Comment: Oil was slightly lower today and continues to trade within a very tight range.
