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Here are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
CL – Crude Oil
Oil continued its rally today with prices finishing the day at the 61.8% retracement mark of the recent range.
KC – Coffee
Coffee opened higher but fell away during the session to close lower and post a candle with an upper shadow. The lack of follow through buying after the strong break of the 61.8% retracement mark of the recent range is a concern.
ZC – New Crop Corn
I entered a buy order below the market but the retracement in the overnight session did not move low enough to trigger my order. Corn rallied during the day session to close higher and post a bullish full bodied candle.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I entered and was stopped out of a position in Coffee today.
Losses today particularly in Gold.
Here are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.
QO – Mini Gold
Trade: Long 1 contract of Jun Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,230
Risk: stop moved to $1,242.50 risking $0
Target: $1,600
Daily Comment: A big shakeout in Gold today with prices trading back down to the 61.8% retracement of the recent range and posting a bearish full bodied candle.
SB – Sugar
Trade: Long 2 contracts of July Sugar
Entry Price: 16.05
Risk: 16.05 risking $0
Target: 18.42
Daily Comment: Another volatile day in Sugar with prices trading down to the 15 SMA. Prices bounced from this level to finish the day higher and close back above the 61.8% retracement mark of the contract high and low.
KC – Coffee
Trade: Long 1 contract of July Coffee
Entry Price: $1.309
Risk: $1.2925 risking $620
Exit Price: $1.294
Trade Grade: 2/5
Trade Review: I was unable to enter the trade on the break of the 61.8% retracement mark as the closing price moved outside my risk parameters. I entered an order back at the 61.8% retracement mark to try and get into the trade at a point where the risk involved was more manageable. Prices traded down through the 61.8% retracement mark during the overnight session triggering my order. The price action for the last 2 days is not what I would like to see to confirm a bullish break so I tightened the Stop. I probably should have jammed the Stop earlier or pulled the order altogether after yesterday’s price action.
I entered a Short position in Mini Crude Oil today.
Further losses today in Gold and Sugar.
Here are my comments on my open positions based on the day’s price action.
QO – Mini Gold
Trade: Long 1 contract of Jun Mini Gold
Entry Price: $1,230
Exit Price: $1,246
Trade Grade: 4/5
Daily Comment: I jammed my Stop to protect profits when prices broke the 40 SMA as the contract is coming up to expiry. Gold finished the day off the lows closing above the 40 SMA at the 61.8% retracement mark of the recent range to post a candle with a lower shadow. I’ll probably look to re-enter the position next week.
Trade Review: No issues with the trade and all rules followed.
SB – Sugar
Trade: Long 2 contracts of July Sugar
Entry Price: 16.05
Risk: 16.05 risking $0
Target: 18.42
Daily Comment: Another large range day in Sugar with prices trading higher and lower but finishing the day unchanged posting a doji candle and closing at the 61.8% retracement mark of the contract high and low.
QM – Mini Crude Oil
Trade: Short 1 contract of July Mini Crude Oil
Entry Price: $48.225
Risk: $50.60 risking $1,187.50
Target: $38.32
Reason for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices reversed from the 61.8% retracement mark of a significant range that is likely to act as resistance.
Fundamental: Sluggish global growth and ample supply provide the impetus for lower prices.
Daily Comment: Oil continued to move lower during the session but closing strongly to finish the day slightly higher.
Here are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
KC – Coffee
A very bearish day for Coffee with prices trading back down through all of the moving averages and posting a bearish full bodied candle.
ZC – New Crop Corn
A big reversal day in Corn with prices trading back down to the 200 SMA. Prices bounced from this level to close off the lows back at the 61.8% retracement of the recent range and posting a candle with a lower shadow. A negative day for Corn but no real damage to the uptrend yet.
Here are my comments on the opportunities I’m watching based on the day’s price action.
GC – Gold
Gold held at the 40 SMA today trading in a small range.
ZC – New Crop Corn
Corn held at the 61.8% retracement of the recent range and tried to rally today but finished well of its highs to post a candle with a long upper shadow.
- I was stopped out of my pyramid position in Sugar for a loss
- Entered and was stopped out of Long position in Coffee for a loss
- Exited my Long trade in Mini Gold for a gain
- Entered a Short position in Mini Crude Oil
I made a loss this week due to the Coffee and Sugar pyramid trades as well losses in my Gold position prior to closing it out.
I’ll start the weekly update with comments on my open positions at the end of the week.
SB – Sugar
Sugar struggled at the 61.8% retracement of the contract high and low each day this week trading lower each day but closing back above this level to close each day. Prices found support on Friday and broke higher to close the week at a new high above 17 cents for the first time since 2014. A decisive close on a Friday bodes well for further price increases next week.
QM – Mini Crude Oil
Oil continued its rally to start the week trading up to the 61.8% retracement mark at $48.57. The rally paused at this point and Oil traded sideways for the rest of the week.
Next up I’ll have a look at the other markets that I have traded or been watching during the week.
QO – Mini Gold
Gold continued to be supported by the short term moving averages early in the week but broke this support on Wednesday falling back sharply to the 40 SMA and the 61.8% retracement mark. Prices have held this point for now but I moved to a neutral bias in Gold at this stage.
KC – Coffee
Coffee broke through the 61.8% retracement of the recent range with impulsiveness on Monday but then posted a reversal candle pattern on Tuesday and quickly reversed suffering big falls on Thursday and finishing the week below all of the moving averages.
ZC – New Crop Corn
Corn continued to rally early in the week breaking the $4 mark. Prices reversed sharply on Thursday trading back down to the 200 SMA but quickly found support and finished the week above the 200 SMA and the 61.8% retracement of the recent range.
Soybean Meal continues to move higher and close to reaching the initial target at the 161.8% extension of the recent range.
HE – Lean Hogs
Hogs broke the 61.8% retracement of the recent range in Wednesday’s trade and continued lower to end the week. Prices are still trading above the rising 200 SMA which has the potential to act as support.
GF – Feeder Cattle
Feeder Cattle had a very quiet week trading in a small range and holding at the falling 40 SMA. A bearish cattle on feed report after the close on Friday could see some sharp falls on Monday.
DX – US Dollar Index
The US Dollar rallied strongly on Wednesday after the Fed signalled the chances of a June rate rise were higher than the market expected. Prices found some resistance at the 61.8% retracement of the major recent range to finish the week.
ZN - 10 Year Note
The Notes fell sharply on Wednesday after the Fed signalled the chances of a June rate rise were higher than the market expected. Prices are holding at the 100 SMA at this stage.
