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Why are you limiting yourself to ten days? You were still positive after three days. You could have just mentally regrouped and started fresh next week (as you didn't get a trade setup today).
I know when you are live you only have ten days to build a cushion. But with the Combine it doesn't matter if you take 10, 15 , 20 or whatever days. It seems a bit early to throw in the towel and reset. In my opinion I would get in to the habit of doing at least ten days before resetting because if you had passed the Combine and were in FTP or passed that and gone live you would need to carry on and work through a poor day.
I want to complete the combine in one billing cycle. I am allowing myself one reset, then pass or fail. I don't plan on endlessly taking combine after combine.
I trade support and resistance in the context of repeating fractal wave patterns. I also use multiple time frames that influence the decisions made on the trading chart.
I don't buy/sell directly at S/R. That is a recipe for potential bad entries and taking a lot of heat, even if you are eventually correct. It's much better to wait for confirmation.
Same goes for buying/selling tops and bottoms. You don't really have confirmation yet.
For example, on Friday at 8:40 PDT on the NQ it briefly stopped the upward move and showed a tiny bit of weakness. Some people that are very aggressive trying to pick tops/bottoms may have shorted that at 8:49. Then at 9:45 when the market had enough people short, it continued it's march up...fueled by all those fresh shorts and the undisciplined moving their stops at 10:15 or so. Also, the SMART aggressive traders saw it for what it was, a little retrace to continue the move. They covered at around 9:30. the combination of their buys to cover and new buyers took it back up.
The only time I try buying/selling the extremes is when a move has it a daily target. Mostly on FOMC days when the markets spasms to a target after whatever announcement. Usually you get an immediate reaction to the other extreme. And even then I will only do it min size and if I have very good profit from earlier in the day.
It's like placing a bet on the hard eight on the craps table. Usually a suckers bet, but if a woman that has never touched the dice before is rolling doubles all night, a good calculated risk.
NQ:
Will need to see how it opens on Sunday, but it looks very likely that the NQ will continue up to fill the daily gap at 4571.25 from 12/31/15. Only 41 pts away and it’s been like a magnet since the lows in Feb were put it. Only looking for quick confirmed moves early in the week. Probably 5-15 pt moves are the highest odds right now.
CL:
Looking for a continuation down to 36.20 area before a move up. Really hard to read since crude is so manipulated by the news/misinformation cycle. Only looking to scalp 1.5-3 pts on small charts until something really juicy sets up.
ES:
Very strong. Has broken daily resistance. Possible follow through to 2076-2082 before a correction down to larger supports.
YM:
Super strong as well. Possible that it continues up to 17751 to break the NOV 2015 high. Need to watch it closely since it could help drag the others up with it. Pretty much late to be long and early to be short. Only looking for very confirmed quick trades on this one until things are resolved.
Overall theme:
The FED has installed a turbo charger in the indexes since Feb lows. I am expecting further GOOD COP / BAD COP action to move them in the desired directions. My guess is that everything goes up a little more early in the week…and then we have a corrective retrace down.
P.S. If you like anything you see in this thread, please give thanks in the competition thread
Was up nicely, but gave a little back a the close. The move I was looking for didn't happen until after the close.
All in all, not bad. Tomorrow may be a little tricky, but the goal is still within reach.
Eight days left. I need an average of $1200 per day to make the goal with room to spare. Two good NQ trades and a mix of CL scalps should do it.
After thinking about journaling, I have realized that the more I post on message boards, the more my trading suffers. So, I am only going to post the daily P&L from here forward.
