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20 mini dax points a day

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  #1 (permalink)
BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia
 
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Ok, here goes.

I have been trading equities for many years, and currently have a semi automated EOD system trading the S&P 500 with good results. My exposure to the market is only 40% however and I would like to use futures as an opportunity to use the money most efficiently.

I am totally new to futures, as previously I had been "frightened of the unknown". Over the last few months I have been educating myself and I now feel comfortable to dip my toes in. This forum has been a godsend for me. I am starting on the Mini Dax and my goal is 20 ticks a day.


Trading style

Trading Breakouts and breakdowns, trend continuations on pullbacks and potentially some fades on strong support and resistance levels.

Yesterday evening (in Australia was my first evening with real money). I have written up my experience on a private journal which I will share next, but it was an eye opener!

I expect this journal to develop over time. I don't trade every day but I am making a point of doing it as often as possible.

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  #3 (permalink)
BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia
 
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Last night was the first night I traded with real money on the Mini Dax. I made some money but I broke a lot of my rules! On reflection my emotions got the better of me and I kept in the game too long, always wanting to enter another trade. This is clearly something that I need to watch.

The Trade activity log in Sierra charts is not displaying the result correctly, but the bottom line was that I was up 423 AUD dollars or approximately 280 euros which coincided with 48 ticks (or points, they are the same on the Mini Dax).

There was a great run up to hit the magic 10,000 level and most of the gain was from this run up when a position that I opened wasn't closed. (I was having problems communicating between TWS and Sierra, I think it was down to the account orders were going in to was not synchronised between charts. Due to the problems I didn't get the orders in I wanted to so I could have done better I feel.

Rules that I did not adhere to:
I should have tried to validate the technology (Sierra charts & TWS) was working from the beginning and when it wasn't I should have stopped and tried to fix it. I was so worried that I would miss the next big move. THERE WILL ALWAYS BE ANOTHER TRADE!
I didn't quit when I hit my target of 20 points.
I didn't stop when the time hit 9pm (local time).

I am going to score myself on two performance aspects daily on the following to help get me on the right track:

A - Adherence to trading plan rules. 4 - Yes, 2 - Mostly, 0 - did not trade, -2 - somewhat ignored, -4 mostly / fully ignored
T - Target reached, 2 - Yes, 1 - positive result, 0 - did not trade, -1 negative result, -2 maximum daily stop reached or exceeded

This will have the added bonus of forcing me to review my trading log regularly.

Today I scored myself A, -4 and T, 2, RESULT = - 2, so clearly some work to do.

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BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia
 
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Trading Result = -210 points
Self Performance = -6 (-2 stopped out max, -4 didn't follow rules)

Ok, I am hoping that this happening at the very beginning will stand to me in time (hey, I am looking for positives here), but yesterday's trading performance was abysmal. I didn't follow most of my rules, while I was trading the action was quite choppy and I got stopped out quickly two times in a row before 15 minutes had passed. I ended up just over 200 points down for the day, which was my daily limit loss (which now appears too much).

What went wrong?
The number of positions I chose was inappropriate for the stop distance required - From when I was paper trading I had been entering 4 positions every time without fail. When I lost paper money I could keep going hard and would usually make the money up no problem after enough trades. The logical stops here for my money management rules had me at 20 points away which had me 4 x 20 = 80 points down twice within 10 minutes. I do realise that 4 x 5 point wins will get me my target so it feels like I really over did it here with the number of positions. I like to have two early bankers with two runners, one realistic and one speculative to satisfy my fear or missing out, but I think that after last night I should be using 1 and 2 positions entries especially when the stop is 15+ points away. Action - adjust trading plan, change from automatically entering 4 positions to tailoring it for the stop distance.

I dived in too early - At 5pm Brisbane time you can start trading DAX and Mini Dax. I was sitting ready and willing at 5pm. At about 5.12 pm I was placing my first trade while the signal bar was being drawn. I was counting on a breakup. The bar did not complete the way I thought it would and the action reversed. In hindsight I should have waited until at least some lines of support and resistance were formed and the initial trend for the day had been better established. Action - No trading before 5.45pm and at least some direction / support resistance has been established to start the day. THERE WILL ALWAYS BE ANOTHER TRADE!

I had other things on my mind. We have 2 young children (1 and 3 year old boisterous ruckus makers) and 5pm here coincides with bath time and preparing dinner. It is a practical thing, but when I am not helping out with either of these things, and not making money it weighs on my mind. Action - in line with no trading before 5.45 pm, no trading before children washed and dinner organised (sounds weird to put in here but I am being honest).

I didn't come up for air - after the initial quick stop I just followed through as I would have always done for paper trading, after a loss I was keen to get a win and again I rushed into the second trade. THERE WILL ALWAYS BE ANOTHER TRADE!

I doubted my system and didn't take trades that I should have after the initial one - two sucker punch.

A daily stop of 200 points down for the day is way too much for my comfort level. While I understand that I need room to move, I don't feel comfortable having this so much more than my target now that I am using real money.
Action - revise daily max stoploss to 80 points. If I am running this regularly while chasing 20 points there is something wrong.

What went right?
I still think system still works. In hindsight, had I the diligence and patience to wait, the signals that did arise worked the majority of the time.

I stopped out at my max daily stop (which was too high).

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rosmerta View Post
st trade while the signal bar was being drawn.

I had other things on my mind. We have 2 young children (1 and 3 year old boisterous ruckus makers) and 5pm here coincides with bath time and preparing dinner. It is a practical thing, but when I am not helping out with either of these things, and not making money it weighs on my mind. Action - in line with no trading before 5.45 pm, no trading before children washed and dinner organised (sounds weird to put in here but I am being honest).

I am no pro, but I have been in similar spots and I think your approach of self analysis and gradual correction is a good one.

This particular comment regarding family definitely strikes home. Don't want the mission toward profitable daytrading to bleed over negatively into family life. Have to know what you are willing to sacrifice. I personally don't want to end up on my death bed regretting throwing away the golden years of parenthood in exchange for any outcome. I have deliberately set cutoffs around my trading activity so I don't get sucked in when there are honestly more imporant (for me, at least) family matters to give my attention to. It's a tough balance but without it the stress and anxiety can compound and weigh on the psyche which is a disaster for trading performance.

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down 200 ticks on the fdxm is about $1000- obviously a stressful result.(better than with the FDAX though)
If you use Interactivebrokers they have a dax cfd which allows a much smaller position size and might be a way to learn without losing too much- until you are sure of your method..

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I wonder how the low volume of the fdxm(18,000 contracts yesterday) compared to the fdax (160,000 contracts) affects order entry

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BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia
 
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FlyingMonkey View Post
I am no pro, but I have been in similar spots and I think your approach of self analysis and gradual correction is a good one.

This particular comment regarding family definitely strikes home. Don't want the mission toward profitable daytrading to bleed over negatively into family life. Have to know what you are willing to sacrifice. I personally don't want to end up on my death bed regretting throwing away the golden years of parenthood in exchange for any outcome. I have deliberately set cutoffs around my trading activity so I don't get sucked in when there are honestly more imporant (for me, at least) family matters to give my attention to. It's a tough balance but without it the stress and anxiety can compound and weigh on the psyche which is a disaster for trading performance.

I fully agree. Thankfully I have a very supportive partner in life which helps a lot, I am pretty much full time Daddy day care during the day right now so that helps too

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BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia
 
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Forexoil View Post
down 200 ticks on the fdxm is about $1000- obviously a stressful result.(better than with the FDAX though)
If you use Interactivebrokers they have a dax cfd which allows a much smaller position size and might be a way to learn without losing too much- until you are sure of your method..

Thanks for that I will check out the dax CFD - perhaps it has better liquidity than the mini dax (which can be lacking, especially at certain times of the day).

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BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia
 
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Trading result = +21 points
Self Performance = 4 ( 2 point for a positive result, 2 points for mostly following rules)

Much calmer affair today. I cooked dinner, kept an eye on the market but didn't step in until things had settled somewhat at home. I waited for the entries, and had the added complications of chop around the 10,000 level but I kept to my system and after 2 losing trades to start with (with only one position each), I followed up with 2 winning trades, one with 2 positions to just nudge me over the target of 20 points.

What went wrong
I could have followed my trading rules a little bit more disciplined / earlier - I would have reached the target earlier.

What went well
The lower position size took the pressure right off. Now I will concentrate on ensuring I have an edge.
Not diving in at the beginning allowed me to read the movement a lot better.

I'm taking tomorrow off, because its St Paddy's day and I plan to meet up with a few other blow ins over here in Australia to reminisce of the green grass of home (I forgot to add that I was Irish).

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rosmerta View Post
A daily stop of 200 points down for the day is way too much for my comfort level. While I understand that I need room to move, I don't feel comfortable having this so much more than my target now that I am using real money.
Action - revise daily max stoploss to 80 points. If I am running this regularly while chasing 20 points there is something wrong.

Sorry to say, but your minimal targets combined with your "personal" stop loss comfort level are a recipe for disaster.
Just to do the math for you: With your "strategy" you need a hit ratio of 91% (10/11) or 80% (4/5)
before commissions as soon as your first stop is hit just to break even again. Ambitious at least.

Even with the reduced March volatility the FDAX has an ADR10 / ADR20 of ~200p.
Average daily noise is between ADN10 ~43p and ADN20 ~52p.

So what you basically do is setting pure noise targets combined with stop losses that strike whenever moves get
meaningful - regardless whether you do that with 80p or 200p.

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BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia
 
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Thanks choke35. Just so I'm clear - that daily stop loss of 80 or 200 (as it used to be) was when I plan to quit for the day. It is not a per trade stop loss. That's formulated based on a recent high / low when I think I will be proven wrong and I am still experimenting with the target per trade, but it is at least as big as the stop loss which normally is about 15 to 25 points. Does that make sense? Does that change anything of your assessment? I appreciate your input.

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BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia
 
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choke35 View Post
Sorry to say, but your minimal targets combined with your "personal" stop loss comfort level are a recipe for disaster.
Just to do the math for you: With your "strategy" you need a hit ratio of 91% (10/11) or 80% (4/5)
before commissions as soon as your first stop is hit just to break even again. Ambitious at least.

Even with the reduced March volatility the FDAX has an ADR10 / ADR20 of ~200p.
Average daily noise is between ADN10 ~43p and ADN20 ~52p.

So what you basically do is setting pure noise targets combined with stop losses that strike whenever moves get
meaningful - regardless whether you do that with 80p or 200p.

Ok, after reading and thinking about it some more I think I get you now (I responded initially above but forgot to quote you). What I understand you are saying is that by setting a 20 point target for the day, I am loading the deck against me. To get a return overall and that I should be setting the target a similar level to my daily stop loss. I may even have the terminology wrong. Perhaps I should be using stop trading for the day limit, and given your feedback that should be the similar whether positive or negative. If I understand you right, either my "system" or reading of the market has an edge or it doesn't. I should just trade when I can and overall it should come up positive. The 80, or 200 was a figure that I was using as an emergency stop - i.e. go home its not working today. As I mentioned in the last post (but I forgot to quote you), there will be something wrong with my system or my reading of the market or my execution if I am hitting my emergency break glass stop regularly. I am trading on short time frames, 5 min bars, and ~5 point renko and I don't want to hold overnight, as I want the cash available for an automated EOD system I run. Does that change your opinion at all? I would be interested in how

Although, I don't plan to hit the 80 point loss (nor did I plan to hit the 200 loss - but inexperience is what I am trying to beat out of me here), there will be days when I do and it will take 4 positive days (or a lot more to make up for my second day) to make up for it, if I stop trading when I hit a daily target of 20 points. If my trades are right 55% of the time there is a chance with 4 or 5 individual trades going against me in a row will take out the 80 point stop. Initially I had placed a 200 point emergency loss as quite far away as in my experience with algorithmic equity long only trading is that for some of the systems I use, stops, especially tight ones can reduce performance significantly overall. The 200 down was something I was never going to hit, but when I did on the second day with real money I realised I had been too flippant and I had to reduce it, at least until I get more of an understanding on what was going on.

I am under no illusions that I am a beginner here. Initially I expect that it will take me some time and money to get a good read on what the market is doing (if indeed I can at all) and perhaps I will take out my emergency stop more frequently at the beginning. If I am honest (and I don't want to scare you here), my aim is to move up to the Dax or other equities in time, if I can gain confidence and I have allocated some funds to "learn" while doing. I have done enough paper trading, and although I consider myself reasonably experienced in equity EOD and EOW trading, intraday trading and futures trading is totally new to me. I am still considering the CFD for the dax as an alternative as forexoil suggested.

Your prompts and feedback have really got me thinking about my approach. Much appreciated as that is why I am here. Thanks again.

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BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia
 
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choke35 View Post
Sorry to say, but your minimal targets combined with your "personal" stop loss comfort level are a recipe for disaster.
Just to do the math for you: With your "strategy" you need a hit ratio of 91% (10/11) or 80% (4/5)
before commissions as soon as your first stop is hit just to break even again. Ambitious at least.

Even with the reduced March volatility the FDAX has an ADR10 / ADR20 of ~200p.
Average daily noise is between ADN10 ~43p and ADN20 ~52p.

So what you basically do is setting pure noise targets combined with stop losses that strike whenever moves get
meaningful - regardless whether you do that with 80p or 200p.

Sorry to keep posting to myself but your prompts forced me to do some more work on my daily stop trading limit choice, and hopefully it makes sense, but I thought I would post what I have done here, to show you what I mean, and also maybe for others to benefit or set me straight.

I choose stop levels on each trade based on the price movement and pattern on the 5 minute and renko charts, not a hard 20 point stop. But for this exercise I have used the following:

Win Percentage = 55%
Average points win = 20
Average points loss = -20
Starting points = 0

Using a random number that allocates whether or not each trade is a successful trade (but will be 55% of the time) I get the following chart for maximum overall system drawdown of 10,000 trades.



But then I only trade maybe 5 trades a day so the maximum daily trade drawdown will be based on 5 trades a day. Over 1000 trading days you get the following chart.




I didn't plan this but it lines up with 80 points a day. The problem is, I don't really know what my successful trade % is, or what my average trade stop level or target / achieved profit level is. I don't think I am going to really get the results / data I need to establish this data accurately until I trade with real money for a period. I hope that all makes sense. Perhaps I should be looking at the ATR and noise levels for smaller time periods in line with what you suggested.

I am keen to hear any other "discretionary" traders manage their daily limits. All other things being equal, it would appear that I should ignore the target of 20 ticks per day and keep placing trades when I get the signals. The name of this trading journal may turn out to be a poor choice

Thanks again choke35

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@rosmerta

You exactly got the point.
And respect for dealing with the topic in that detailed and thoughtful way.
The method shows that your time with EOD/EOW certainly isn't/wasn't in vain.
Besides: It is way above your "Beginner" tag.

Enough flattering

For the next steps it is important that you a) find out if your system/method really
has the edge that you assume and b) can live with the real drawdowns. (CFDs can
only mitigate that pain in absolute terms, but all disadvantages aside they also will
show you if your (F)DAX trading works.)

For further thought try to keep in mind that any (static) target (mathematically) cuts down the P/L
- trivial so far. But try to find out if the trade-off between your targets, the lost profit of "normal"
moves of the FDAX and your (emergency) stops are balanced for you.

Good trades!

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rosmerta View Post
I dived in too early - At 5pm Brisbane time you can start trading DAX and Mini Dax. I was sitting ready and willing at 5pm. At about 5.12 pm I was placing my first trade while the signal bar was being drawn. I was counting on a breakup. The bar did not complete the way I thought it would and the action reversed. In hindsight I should have waited until at least some lines of support and resistance were formed and the initial trend for the day had been better established. Action - No trading before 5.45pm and at least some direction / support resistance has been established to start the day. THERE WILL ALWAYS BE ANOTHER TRADE!

hi @rosmerta,
Thanks for starting a journal and your detailed thoughtful commentary!
I noticed that you mentioned trading at 1745 your time, which I think is around 0845 in Berlin. Sounds like you are starting pre-cash open. the cash open is 0900 and initial balance lasts till about 0930. Nice failure test/pull-back setups can be found after the initial balance.
I started trading the DAX with small time frames (1M/5m) and tight stops and was chopped in to pieces. I opened up to 30 minute and 2 hour charts and saw the "light". @choke35 mentioned about the stops and noise. You may find a large stop such as 50/100 points and one or two trades with positive expectancy to get the major swings of the day bears some nice fruit. There is a big benefit of fewer trades and big stops: mental fatigue. Getting chewed up with stop-losses reduces the quality of my decision making and confidence.

For developing an edge, I found Adam H. Grimes free course to be one of the best resources. Plan to invest 100 or so hours but it's worth it. The Course - The Art and Science of Trading. Also, I traded the CFD before the mini-DAX, which allows you to practice with real money and trade in 1euro increments. The other benefit of the CFD from a reputable dealer is that they roll over so you can almost treat them like a leveraged ETF so you can trade a large time frame.

Good Trades!
JohnS

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