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Higher Lows - New ES Day trader


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Higher Lows - New ES Day trader

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  #1 (permalink)
Minneapolis Minnesota/US
 
 
Posts: 23 since Nov 2015
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I just started day trading ES futures on Friday (3/4/16). After briefly paper trading a system that is essentially buying higher lows (admittedly not long enough to be what anyone would consider a thorough test) I decided to go live trading 1 contract at a time.

On my first day (3/4/16) I made what I can see now was a stupid mistake and I would guess I'm not the first to make it. After my first live trade, which went well, I got all nervous about my risk and tightened up the stops instead of leaving them where my system dictated. This lead to me getting stopped out of two trades that would have combined for about ~12 points then proceeded to make two bad rage trades which were losses. In total I was up on the day, but not anywhere near what I should have been. I can't miss out on those trades and still be successful over the long term.

Day 1

5 trades
+$71 after fees.

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  #3 (permalink)
Minneapolis Minnesota/US
 
 
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Day 2

I see from other journals that it is the norm to record points, not dollars, I like that. It's more like score for being right. After today I will have to keep better track of points.

Today I was positive PnL more than I was my first day, but I don't know the points. When I look at my order history it shows all the times I move my stop or my target as orders. It would take amonth of Sundays for me to figure out what was what. Tomorrow I will log trades in a notebook.

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  #4 (permalink)
Minneapolis Minnesota/US
 
 
Posts: 23 since Nov 2015
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The inverse of buying higher lows is selling lower highs, which it looks like we've set the last couple of days along with corresponding lower lows. That along with the ascending wedge shape that's been forming since the bottom a will have me on the lookout for an opportunity to sell today.

Observations of overnight: We might be setting the sellable lower high right here about an hour before open and so far I only trade the day session so I may miss it. Second observation is that the downward trendline since yesterdays open outcry high is rather steep. One might normally be weary of a bounce off that line, but it's steep enough that I'm not convinced price will contact it again. We will see.

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  #5 (permalink)
Minneapolis Minnesota/US
 
 
Posts: 23 since Nov 2015
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Really screwed the pooch today. I once again let myself get stopped out of a two good trades. A short at open And a long off the bottom of the ascending wedge I had been watching. After that I got frustrated and went short es long nq which I have no idea how to do. I know I shouldn't do it because I know I don't know how to do that, but I did it anyway.

In short I really didn't learn much today - I didn't things I already knew I shouldn't do.

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  #6 (permalink)
Troy, Michigan, USA
 
 
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Nubevestor View Post
Really screwed the pooch today. I once again let myself get stopped out of a two good trades. A short at open And a long off the bottom of the ascending wedge I had been watching. After that I got frustrated and went short es long nq which I have no idea how to do. I know I shouldn't do it because I know I don't know how to do that, but I did it anyway.

In short I really didn't learn much today - I didn't things I already knew I shouldn't do.

hope you learn from your experience to research before you make crucial decisions.

good day

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  #7 (permalink)
Minneapolis Minnesota/US
 
 
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dannydan123 View Post
hope you learn from your experience to research before you make crucial decisions.

good day

Thanks for the feedback. I've been kicking myself in the butt since then, still am this morning, and thinking of taking the day off so I'm not trading emotionally. Which I think right this minute I would be. On the plus side, I'm pretty confident I've learning to not throw caution to the wind.

After I finish my morning prep I'll see how I feel and decide then if I'm trading today or not.

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  #8 (permalink)
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Nubevestor View Post
I just started day trading ES futures on Friday (3/4/16). After briefly paper trading a system that is essentially buying higher lows (admittedly not long enough to be what anyone would consider a thorough test) I decided to go live trading 1 contract at a time.

On my first day (3/4/16) I made what I can see now was a stupid mistake and I would guess I'm not the first to make it. After my first live trade, which went well, I got all nervous about my risk and tightened up the stops instead of leaving them where my system dictated. This lead to me getting stopped out of two trades that would have combined for about ~12 points then proceeded to make two bad rage trades which were losses. In total I was up on the day, but not anywhere near what I should have been. I can't miss out on those trades and still be successful over the long term.

Day 1

5 trades
+$71 after fees.

Hi Nubevestor - I'd say that paper trading and live trading, while appearing similar, can actually be two significantly different experience, often because of pressure and psychological factors playing a much bigger role when using real money than when not. It's a hurdle that anyone wanting to trade needs to necessarily go through in my view. Hope it helps.

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  #9 (permalink)
Minneapolis Minnesota/US
 
 
Posts: 23 since Nov 2015
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The ascending wedge is still there but looks to be in trouble.



In retrospect it appears we've been in something of a channel the last few days. For my purposes thought the trend of lower highs is broken so I will have to watch the chart to see what happens. From past observations this could either be the start of a different uptrend or we could flush right back down and set a lower low, so basically I have nothing actionable.


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  #10 (permalink)
Minneapolis Minnesota/US
 
 
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xplorer View Post
Hi Nubevestor - I'd say that paper trading and live trading, while appearing similar, can actually be two significantly different experience, often because of pressure and psychological factors playing a much bigger role when using real money than when not. It's a hurdle that anyone wanting to trade needs to necessarily go through in my view. Hope it helps.

It certainly feels that way so far. I've been stopped out of several good trades in just my first few days because I'm risk averse. I had a long talk about it with my girlfriend last night who tried to reassure me that it's monopoly money so I shouldn't worry. I'm not convinced yet, I will have to work on being so skerred for sure.

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  #11 (permalink)
Minneapolis Minnesota/US
 
 
Posts: 23 since Nov 2015
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3/9/16

Didn't take any trades today. I was still too skerred. Watched the market and tried to just get right mentally and see if I could get back to basics. I did see two potential areas to go long, but wasn't ready to do it. First was off that quick 8 handle dump. Price stopped falling above yesterdays low (higher low) and though it went below the overnight low, it promptly came back above. Thise two things combined with the divergence would have been exactly what I should be buying. This was way too hot for me to touch today, and I honestly don't think I would have been comfortable taking it anyway, but system says I should have taken it . I would have entered on the candle above the first green arrow with a stop below LOD (previous cadle).

Second trade is one I almost took because it was a calm time of day. Price was gently winding and hit and bounced off the same price it had shortly before. There wasn't any bearish divergence (that would have stopped me) so it provided an attractive place to put a stop - just below the the second orange line on the chart. Had I been trading I think I would have taken that one long at the second green arrow.

One thing you might notice is that I have two buy arrows there and no sell arrows. That is because I still have no idea when to sell. What I've been doing is moving the stop up to the bottom of the previous candle. Would have been a decent trade on the first one and more or less a scratch on the second.

[IMG][/IMG]

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  #12 (permalink)
Minneapolis Minnesota/US
 
 
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Back inside the wedge with the Stoxx 50 and the DAX both up over 2%. Draghi must have made his statement. New highs before open, which I don't buy or sell, so may not have any trades today. After sitting out yesterday though I want to get back to business, so I'll be keeping my eye open for opportunity.



Welp, that didn't last long. Price fell back out of the wedge nearly as quickly as it reentered.

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  #13 (permalink)
Minneapolis Minnesota/US
 
 
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DAX and XX50 are taking back all of yesterdays losses - both up nearly 3%. Overnight low is 1978 and overnight high is 2002 so far, but that could change by open. Only other observation I have is that price got within a couple of points of the bottom of the month long wedge and might be making something of a top that I sort of expect to create a pull back into the open.

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  #14 (permalink)
Minneapolis Minnesota/US
 
 
Posts: 23 since Nov 2015
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Back to the daily grind starting tomorrow so today will be my last full day of trading for a while. Hoping to be able to get some trades in after work, but will have to wait and see.

Overnight high is 2011.50
Overnight low is 2004.25

With an overnight range that tight the high and low from Fridays session might be relevant levels for today.

Europe is green while the US is slightly red and sitting close to the overnight lows. I have no bias going into today.

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