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I entered the morning with 4 lots open in 3 scrips. Soon after the opening bell in less than 20 minutes a TSL on Bajaj was hit freeing capital to enter another position.
I had anticipated this and planned a trade today - Long ASPN.
I was scared to death about NTPC - I mean 128.85 was my SL and the scrip future traded greater part of the day at an ATP of 128.45 . I am not comfortable with such tight ranges, and throughout the day the scrip just kept moving against my position. I was also because after entering short yesterday at what turned out to be the low of the day the scrip also closed yesterday a few decimal points from my SL.
But the last trading hour was a relief!!! - I mean I cant explain - just an emotional relief - like the kinds where I feel I need to rest lol.
Ofcourse feeling like this was not a part of the plan and the loss booking would be at the 10k threshold - But a loss feels horrible particularly so soon.
I have ended the day today getting stopped out of Infosys Long Position - Getting stopped out of Bajaj Auto short position - Exiting out of ASPN long position - and booking partial profits on NTPC carrying just 1 lot for tomorrow.
Let me share the charts marking closing of todays trades -
Bajaj Auto 15 m - shared but still again :
NTPC relieving trade - 1H view :
Infosys Long Trade - 1H view :
[COLOR="rgb(85, 107, 47)"]ASPN Long Trade - 1 H view : [/COLOR]
Nifty Short - 15 M view : Note the move in the last trade 15 m candle. It does not capture that serious rise was actually in the last 2-3 minutes.
CF 1 lot NTPC Short @ 127.55 SL to be decided post analysis but will not be above sell price.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I was not in time to place the SL at sell price for NTPC - bought back at market when the future posted a day high @ 128.25 (Loss of 0.7 points = Rs 2800 (+100)) .
Poor trade on Nifty as well - Options bought @ 54 are worth less than half the price at the moment.
So booked loss on NTPC, and likely will book a loss on Nifty as well. Break above 7582 and I exit blindly. Currently trading @ 7555.
Feeling Unprepared. Need to work harder and need to fine tune my entry exit points a bit.
By and large this was a reasonably better trading week than the last, however even the improved strategy needs to be further tweaked.
Nifty is trading in a 100 point range – which is extremely narrow. The idea of trading with 2 lots was to catch a trend, but with the absence of trend in the broader index is further manifested in choppy price action of stocks.
Ranges can last some time – ADX is @ 22 and has dipped significantly from the highs of 40-50 – it has the potential to dip further to 10-12 suggesting a fall of 100 points further and a potential rise of another 300 points – i.e. a logical trading range could be between 7400 – 7750 for the expiry on the up side while 7100 – 7400 on the down side.
The idea of trading only Nifty 50 stocks was to leverage my established understanding of the index to stocks. I have not done that successfully this month so far. Another weakness has been that I have let money tie me into a knot and govern trading action. I should continue to focus on trade quality – place logical stops and continue to try to keep emotions in check.
The plan now is to trade with just 1 lot future till Nifty ADX breaches 25 and then identify stocks facing the direction of the then prevalent trend. So from the range ADX <= 24.5 I will trade with 1 Future lot using 4H ATR of target and current technique to get stopped.
At ADX >=25 I will start trade with 2 lots to with the idea of trading trends.
Read Dr. Alexander Elder`s book again – he points out to an essential concept of placing a money stop. On availability of sufficient capital I will place money stops as well and incorporate this into my money management plan.
On breach of H1 ATR I will start placing money stops on my current trades and will carry no regrets of getting stopped out out of beginning of what looks like a new trend. The money management technique that I plan on implementing is designed for the range bound markets and I believe this position size is well complimented with the cash balance on account.
I will use trend bias in the trading scrips in direction of prevalent bias. Flat EMAs are key along with well established range with min 3-2 touch defining pivotal resistance and support.
Impulsive Trade and Repeated Mistakes
In otherwise a perfect week I broke a rule and placed a low volume impulsive option trade which seemed very logical @ the time of entry. With previous experience in options my attitude has slackened against this security where I do not feel threatened by losses incurred here.
This is a poor approach – I have already lost over 50% of investment and might loss more if a higher trading range gets set.
The plan is to exit @ 7600. The question now is why did I not sell 7600 CE then instead or better why not 7750 CE multiple lots since that should be the top of the range as per my understanding?
So this impulsiveness has led to a poor position which burdens me again over the weekend. This approach needs to change else the account is in serious trouble. Management of perspective under pressure is important. Be better prepared – you have set these rules for yourself after noting a lot of losing trades – it is silly that I am not learning from them quickly enough it will be super stupid if this learning takes more time than necessary.
A day of no trades - spent time analysing stocks in the Nifty next 50 and widening my coverage base to 100 scrips.
It is likely that there might be no trades for me for the week - Stocks are giving a long call but almost all are over bought - need a small correction to happen on the stocks of coverage before initiating position.
I am a discretionary trader usually trading per momentum - but a gap is interesting always. So I have decided to counter trend trade a few days before expiry by writing call options whose intrinsic value is significantly higher.
I have shorted 2 lots - 1 7600 CE @ 140 BEP 7740 close & 7750 CE @ 40 BEP 7790 close. Since the premise is that gap will offer a resistance I expect Nifty to close below 7740 for expiry - which automatically is my SL for this trade.
It is the first time that I am using gaps directly into my trade - i.e. the entry and exit points are decided by this feature - so I am nervous. However the position size is really small and I risk less for a potential reward.
I am attaching the day chart (which is the longer time frame I use) and the H1 chart for entry reference.
The day chart shows the gap - the blue line in H1 marks entry while red line marks exit point.
Since the options will change value based on time it takes to exit - I have entered the highest possible value as SL - assuming it hits 7735 NOW.
In addition to the above 2 written lots I am also carrying forward sell 7300 PE which is now deep OTM given spot is trading @ 7700.
2nd day of holding on to this short position and the market so far has come close to testing my SL on both days.
I think I am always nervous - no matter how hard I try. I can't spell out the problem - i mean the loss risk is less - I am sufficiently leveraged - the position size with 2 lots is perfect - there is OK reason to take on this trade ... But still I feel caught almost always. I guess try to be a perfectionist in the market is a vain effort - but ....
Usually in such situations I shut down everything and read - but today even that doesn't seem to help since everything will happen on Monday. I have already booked a loss on Nifty trade earlier this month - I guess losing again will be a psychological beat rather than a financial one this time.
Market closed both tom and day after - Looking forward to charting a 100 securities for practice. If I like something I will trade them the following week.
Hope all fellow traders have a great easter weekend (in case we don't meet till Monday)
Spent a lot of time analysing several charts - Unfortunately no trade lined up. Some stocks looked good - but have decided against trading them because I am not very convinced.However stocks which looked like no trade for me, looked like sure shot trades to other analysts so bouts of self doubt.
I found a company - Cummins - for shorting - everything looks perfect - just the volume break out has me unsettled. i looked at the chart for a while and tried coming up with a plan - but Vol. breakout simply was not allowing me to enter. So after spending what feels like an eternity analysing charts i have NO FUTURES TRADE lined up for Monday :-(
Confused - looking for better stock screening tools.
Dr. Reddy Labs and Eicher Motors - Both seem OK to go long.
A little late with entry @ Eicher so will buy shares and trade them instead (safer)
DRL yet to give confirmation - but as a rule I will avoid trading pharma stock futures simply coz of their tendency to gap down strongly. Hence delivery stocks seems the way to go.
In short position @ Nifty - hope to see a flat opening with a negative bias.
DRL stock future moved decisively against my position straight out of the opening today which results in me starting the day off with losses :-( . I was quite confident about this trade - did not analyse anything further yesterday and today will have no trades to take. I guess I will remain quiet this March Trade Cycle - my wins loss % is 50-50 and this has to be the worse trading month for me in the last 3 months.
Shown below is the hour chart of DRL - marking entry yesterday morning and exit today morning. Please note that only trades move per hour charts but for analysis I usually determine a trade bias on the daily chart.
Ever since I started of trading I was kinda welcomed by a downward trending market - this transition into a range bound market with choppy price action makes it difficult to trade - I guess I need to evolve as a trader or might get extinct.
I have been short on Nifty with the premise being gap trades - this too was a counter trend trade but it seems to have worked so far (dont wanna jinx it)
Shown below is the hour chart of Nifty - please note to see the gaps you will have to refer daily charts which I have uploaded a couple of posts earlier before taking the position.
I hope yall have a better trading session than I have had so far - Best wishes.
I trade based from India and trade the Index and Equities.
Index - National Stock Exchange; NSE/Nifty 50 is the countries premier index and features the 50 largest companies by market cap
Equities - All stocks listed in the Nifty 50 and the Nifty Next 50.
Introduction:
I am a part time trader and started with a corpus of Rs 1,65,000 on May 2015.
By Nov 2015 this principle was reduced to Rs 8,850. I lost money trading both Futures and Options.
From the market value on Dec - Jan 2015/16, Nifty plunged over 15% for 2 consecutive months. I caught the trend early and took out the full 15% from the market. By Feb 2016 my account balance was Rs 1,15,000 without any top-ups.
In March 2016 I added Rs 1,85,000 more making a total deposit of Rs 3,50,000 - Increasing then corresponding available cash balance to Rs 3,00,000. Of which I have invested Rs 1,30,000 into equities @ Nifty 6900-7000 levels and therefore ideally I should have Rs 1,70,000 cash.
However in March 2016 I have made losses trading the index and current available cash balance is Rs 109,000 - i.e. losses of Rs 61,000.
I have realised that I am still struggling with impulsive trades. I also tend to aggressively enter counter trend trades. I am struggling with money management and position sizing. I am struggling with identifying exit points as each week I seem to make some subtle changes to my system.
My System:
I am a positional/swing trader. I do well in trending markets.
I use what Dr. Alexander Elder pioneered as the Triple Screen Trading System. I use 3 time frames to analyse a scrip. I use the daily charts to figure out a position bias i.e. long or short, then I use the 4 hour charts to see if the oscillators support the corresponding action, which is followed by use of 1 hour charts to determine entry and SL which is usually below the hourly pivot low.
Dr. Elder advises using timeframes of 1W/1D/1H - but this is too slow for my liking.
What I hope for:
I hope to catch major waves - which are entered through hour charts but follow up for days or weeks even.
The March cycle was the first time I traded stock futures - 2 of the stocks I got stopped out off went on to make stronger moves ahead. I have realised that i was aggressively trailing them. These learnings from each trade reflect changes in the system.
I hope to be able to catch a genuine move up or down - and to trail it for a very long time reducing the need to enter multiple positions. Trailing potential waves successfully is a challenge that I am looking to over come in the short term.
Looking forward to:
Sharing my experiences trading the Index and stocks for the April Expiry. I have read several views suggesting that indicators are lagging, and I agree they have limitations, but from my study I believe I can put them to good use and hopefully with further crystallisation of my trade plan I will eventually become a profitable trader.
I look forward to you all visiting my diary (thanking me once in a while will be pleasant too).
Most of what I write will be what I feel - I will almost always have charts.
I hope that what I write and that whatever I have written thus far will be of some benefit to traders, irrespective of trade style. I hope that you all benefit from this learning curve that for me has only just begun.
