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I hate it when trades do not exceed a day - yesterdays short of Maruti was covered straight out of the opening on a sharp bounce up.
After recently having included the analysis of the 50 stocks in the Index - I wake up all confused not knowing which stock is going to hit what level. Also I do not have margin to enter all orders and keep.
Yesterday I had 5 scrips to short - I choose MRTI simply because it reached that level first. Today the market gapped down and the remaining 4 hit targets while this one bounces up. I am not in the other 4 just this one and the reality is hurting that fewer scrips lowers my probability since the effort is the same.
No doubt I am unlucky here - to compensate for which an ideal trading ploy would be to enter into equal sized relevant positions for all scrips, but the margin required is simply too much and feel limited capital simply takes away any play.
Feeling a little uncomfortable - all this analyses of stocks has got me lagging behind on my office work and a dead line on Friday is just gonna mean that I will have to work long hours. I constantly feel like I am living 36 hours in a 24 hour day.
Oh - Wake up take care of the baby - set break fast - quickly go through stock levels - enter a few orders and cant enter a few others - drive to work - see the chart and notice stops or orders triggered - run around office - then sit back and analyse the day - go back home and take care of wife and kid ... Uff the same tireless never ending routine is just killing me.
I think I can and will just take a break from trading for a few days - but I have open short positions on Nifty after
Hanging Man and Doji close yesterday. So it is a never ending cycle.
To balance work - family - exercises - trades is a real challenge. Some how what is compromised is social life and sleep.
Or may be this is just one of those days where you feel unusually tired and sloppy about everything.
I will just let it be and get on with posting screen shots.
I have entered short position in the market (Nifty) on a part confirmation of my system.
What is my system?
I use what Dr. Elder has created and calls the triple time frame screening system and I am a moving momentum kinda trader. So I use longer time frames to decide a trading bias and shorter ones to enter/exit.
What was my analysis?
20-50-200 Day SMA death cross holds - price above 50 SMA - Market weak bearish. Sell on Rise.
Mitigating factors: Volume break out. Multiple gap supports. These are strong mitigating factors market likely to show high interest but low range. Action: Do not trade till OBV Dips. Trade on short side.
What was my action instead?
I shorted Nifty 5 Lots on 2 different occassions based on confirmation from momentum.
Why? Why enter??
Market formed a hanging man at previous minor top. Market was deeply overbought - weakness post hanging man threatens gap down.
But OBV?
I chose to ignore it - This will be a quick trade.
Next Day? Doji - Confirmation. Intra day dip - moving average system triggered sell - idea to trade for a gap down.
Next Day?
Market gaps down. I do not book partial profits.
Market reverses above the SL defined by my system - I do not exit.
Hold and Carry Forward.
Next Day?
I reenter - market dips again - more than my target - I do not book partial profits.
Market reverses again above the SL - I do not exit.
Result?
Pain and suffering.
To help understand my situation better let me explain : @ Market Levels 7485 I bought 7400 PE anticipating this getting ITM. Market has closed the week @ 7510 making this option OTM and in addition to ROC it is hurting more because of Time.
So I have bought OTM PE, but what I do next is even brilliant (rhetorical) - I have shorted Deep ITM CE 7300 @ spot 7485 as well.
So on 1 hand I am losing time on my bought option, on the other hand I am losing like Futures on the deep ITM shorted option. So a double whammy I think - Lol
What I am Trading For?
Hope and Luck. I am literally praying for a OBV breakout on the down side which forms a M pattern! Additionally todays trade action on smaller time frames confirmed a Ascending Triangle with the prior trend being bullish. This is a continuation pattern - the top of this trading range is my Wishful Stop Loss which if triggered crushes my account.
If the break on the down side happens then there are speculative gains since gaps tend to find support once bridged.
Introspection?
If I see this pattern now - will I want to enter?
Ans - No - will trade outside the pattern not inside since I have enough experience to learn that my system works only on trending markets. It sucks in range bound markets and sucks even more if my choice of options was wrong.
So why did I enter? I really dont know.
How do I feel?
Like a total loser.
I am looking forward to seeing action quickly on either side - it may or may not happen, but I want to end this feeling sooner than later. I have some God damn history with Fridays - carry another loser position with me over the weekend.
Looking forward to a slow paced weekend. I feel like I will analyze all 50 stocks of the index with music and mass peace.
Strong Mixed Signals :
Sell on Moving Averages - Buy on Volume - so much conflict led me to trade this position poorly. The poorest decision of course was to enter the market particularly when I knew better. None the less surprisingly Feeling Relieved that this is over!
Decision to Quit :
Inconsistent trading behaviour has me in doubt about my ability to handle capital. I have assumed approx Rs 10K loss per position I enter - and on 50 such losing transactions I will quit trading completely - which implies that I have invested about Half Million into my trading account. This is a development that I have decided on over the weekend.
My earlier capital of 100 K had 88K invested in equities and with 12k trading capital in cash I was getting crushed by shitty options since writing them was difficult.
Discipline and Focus
Maintaining discipline now means the world to me - I only hope that I do not disappoint myself by entering a trade planned in the middle of the day. All plans need to be prepared a day in advance or no trade - I am not a full time trader, with boss and colleagues all sitting around I have to accept that I cannot look at 10-15-30 min charts for any decision. All decisions will be made on Week, Day and Hour charts or Day, H4, H1 charts.
Mental Makeup
Going forward, I will trade with confidence, without fear and with a feeling of indifference when I enter or exit.
No loss greater than 10K ever - SL and target will be entered within 10 minutes of executing trade.
I must believe in myself - I will catch trending scrips/indexes - I will be able to trail them successfully and will be a good swing trader before I lose this capital.
In need of some luck and prayers.
-----------------------------------------------
14.3.16 - I have entered short position on Bajaj Auto - This company is listed in the premier index and is one of the largest domestic player in the 2 Wheeler/Motorcycle segment.
After being on the losing side of the trade for the last few transactions have booked profits yesterday :-)). Its not only the money but I am happy that I followed the system that I have created to the "T"
On the 14.3.16 I shorted Bajaj Auto 400 Qty and Booked profits on 200 Qty yesterday. The position is safe since SL is a little higher than Buy price, which if gets triggered I still have marginal profits.
Today I have gone long on Infosys.
One of the largest Indian IT Firms which is also listed in the NYSE (I think).
Sharing below the hourly chart of :
Bajaj Auto - SELL POSITION 200 QTY
Infosys - Long Position 1000 Qty.
Day End:
Entered Short Position on NTPC selling 8000 units @ Rs 127.60 at 2 pm. Closing price 128.2 and SL 128.8. The market moved up late in day and this has me on edge holding 2 lots short.
Bajaj Auto made a strong up move during 2nd half of day and the Future closed @ 2256 after making a low of 2200. Having taken partial profits of 20 points I am reasonably comfortable in this position with no real rush to cover.
Infy ended the day in positive and I have booked partial profits i.e. 1 lot @ 1153 gaining 9 points so not really worried. NTPC however now has my undivided attention for tomorrows trade.
Below is the chart for Infy day end:
Plan for tomorrow :
Infy 1 lot CF - Raise SL to buy price
Bajaj Auto 1 lot CF - raise SL to sell price (not ideal but no reason to take loss atm)
NTPC 2 lots CF - SL 128.85 - sold @ 127.6 risk 1.25 = Rs 10k for both lots.
Notes:
All these open positions has me nervous, which I kinda expect from me since I have a history of chocking under pressure.
However feeling reasonably in control of emotions.
Keep telling myself that my job is to follow the market, I cannot decide my profits I can only manage my risk.
With 4 open Future Lots in 3 scrips and with 1 more scrip long planned for tomorrow I am feeling at edge.
2 am : Difficult to find sleep ... Even though 2/4 lots are guaranteed break even coz they have closed far from my TSL.. yet the edgy feeling is unsettling .. I guess this is why folks day trade - lol...
Trading is tough mentally - beginning to realise this as I widen my trade base from 1 stock to the next. The index on best days moves say 1% .. but stocks.. my God!
I have recently booked profits on a delivery call of a stock called Crompton Greaves. The stock closed @ 165 on Monday and Opened @ 40 on Tuesday!! No warning .. No nothing .. just like that 125 points lost.
The trend or at least a very short term trend like say 2-3 days was Up .. the stock was poised to confront its next Gap Resistance - logical to assume some pressure .. But... 125 points?? I mean no circuit triggered?
If someone went Long on short term trend he would have bough 3000 qty @ 150 only to wake up to find at least a 100+ point loss which is = Rs 300,000!!.
For friends from the US/Eur - purchasing power parity of INR vis a vis Developed Economies is 1:3 - which means that what you can buy for Rs 1 in India you need to pay Rs 3 in the US for the same product/quality. So with this logic this Rs 3,00,000 has a purchase power of Rs 9,00,000 (USD 15,000) for an American national. Money is relative but this according to me should be a lot of money for any one.. I don't know ..
When I saw the stock Gap Down 65% I instantly went long expecting all the sellers to book windfall profits which should take the stock up to say 50 bucks... I booked profits on the delivery trade today ... but this fall has scared me in the sense that person could have been me.
I sometimes feel I wish I could find a trading coach or a trading partner with a positional/swing trade style or something, to understand the regulations and the working of the stock market better for my knowledge and info of course... also may be for the phsycological bit .. .. preferably from another country .. so interests never conflict - Don't know how that will help though or what I plan to achieve as when I think about a trading partner I also think like balls who is going to talk so much .. lol
Bajaj Auto stop got triggered straight out of the opening.
Stops do get triggered but I feel I got really unlucky here... When I shorted Bajaj Auto the future was at a discount of 50 points. For some magical reason when the stock fell by over 2% the future started trading @ a premium of 10 points.
Result : 4 days of holding got me a target booked on day 1. The stock is well below my shorting value and feeling a tad angry.
NTPC is still trading a few ticks below my SL - so that is bad for me.
Asian Paints long entry happened today
Infy is going OK - long @ 1145 and trading over 1160 atm. Do not want to jinx it.
Results so far
Adani Ports Short 1 Lot booked Loss of Rs 6k
Maruti Long 1 lot Booked profit of Rs 4K
Nifty options booked loss of Rs 12K
Bajaj Auto long 2 lots booked profit of Rs 4k
Infy long 2 lots booked profit of Rs 4k on 1 lot
NTPC 2 Lots Short open and risks loss of 10K on trigger. ASPN 2 lots Long open and risks loss of 6.5 K. Infy Open 1 lot has a profit setting of Rs 2K.
Per my criteria of trading I look for contraction and then a blow off. For eg. Adani after hitting SL is trading at a monthly High - and so is MRTI.
In continuation with the previous thread I am sharing my Bajaj Auto trading experience since this position is now closed. Active positions are Infy (Lot 1), NTPC (Lots 2), ASPN (Lots 2)
Bajaj Auto 15m chart.
After seeing the chart, the fall and the fact that I booked just 20 points over a 50 point fall feels unlucky.
