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Entered short again today. This time trading options since I am not yet confident enough to enter with small SLs - and trading options allows me to play out of money in case of wide SL to participate with lesser absolute loss.
Unfortunately this flexibility is not offered by Futures which requires a larger account or a different market.
With 2 days left for Feb Expiry I have not bought Put Options. Instead I have sold 1 lot 7500 Call Option (March) @ 77.5 points.
Justification :
The index is trading down - the recent move qualifies as a wave against the tide. There are gap resistances @ 7320 along with Monthly and Weekly resistances - implying confluence of strong resistance at that level.
In 7300/7450 levels there are further gaps and pattern resistances.
This deep OTM option is highly priced due to time and seems like a safer bet.
For me to lose money Nifty needs to close above 7577.5 on expiry - CMP 7175.
On the macro level we have a much anticipated Business Friendly budget expectations with the street expecting Govt to cut some taxes and take strong focus on expediting regulatory and legal processes.
However the chart, according to me is still saying down. So shorting the market.
Attaching hourly charts for reference.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Day closed down with a short position carried forward. Attaching hour and 15 min view.
While I have market a TSL for the position - since I have written an OTM option I feel it is ok to hold on even if there is a breach. Do not see the index closing above 7500 this expiry and instead of a TSL I could use a SAR on the position. Lets c.
After taking short position yesterday the market gave a gap down opening.
7130 is the week pivot and coincides with the Trend Line which was the base of the ascending triangle hypothesis with recent price action confirms 7250 as the market top.
Looking to get in the money put options on test of the TL again - which is usually the case - this should happen by next week and am assuming that I will be perfectly in place to make the most out of it with a pattern target of 6700 points.
No trade action likely today. Uploading morning hourly/15m chart.
No trade today.. Continue to carry forward sell position. Short 7500 Ce at 77.5 cmp 20.
Post budget decline in volatility will hurt premiums .. Post which if conditions permit I will long puts. Market closed @6970 with a fall throughout never testing SL.
Have been trading the index from short positions for a while - and still holding. All parameters I use to evaluate are consistent with a short view except 1.
On the daily charts I am seeing a OBV break out.
My question is this observation correct and should I start holding a long bias for trades?
For reference I am attaching a screen shot - also ADX 35 + but mitigated by a range bound Aroon indicating no new low has been formed for some time. MACD is negative but histogram not reflecting the same grief a possibility of short term cross.
Daily is the longest time frame I use to analyse which usually has trend identifying parameters. I am getting mixed signals here, which is likely to impact my approach entering shorter time frames.
Clarity here will help me crystallize a plan on sell on rise or to buy on dips.
Done some research on OBV divergence and seen that it manifests itself several weeks later. By then I should be able to catch a reversal. Will continue trading on short side till serious change in price action.
The OBV divergence and break out got me out of sell orders. I was unsure of how to trade this divergence since moving averages of course have a sell on the market but OBV which is a leading indicator has a buy - resulting in a set up of very strong contrary signals - so I had to stay out.
I used this time to widen my trading base - and increased coverage to 44/50 listed scrips with the idea that I am going to trade the Nifty in its entirety - that is scrips and the index.
Recent Trade and Screen Shot :
I could not get myself to go long on the Index but with the stocks I had no problems.
In addition to the Index, in which I did not trade, I would also like to share my trade on Airtel (scrip) here.
Reason :
Nifty has a pattern target of 6700 but a close above 7512 is a Higher top per dow theory. It is logical to assume that in the event the market does form a higher top then one could use pull backs to build a portfolio.
Capital Sizing :
My ratio for capital set for trading derivative to portfolio is 1:100 - that is for every USD 100 I can invest I have set USD 1 for trading derivatives for the rewarding hands on experience.
Edge of Experience
I have lost 90% of my capital set for trading when I began this journey a few months back, since then have recovered money back with negligible monetary profits, but with massive learnings.
So I feel that I know a thing or two about losses and the importance of stop loss on trade - Just having a set SL and a level for partial target, in my noob opinion, is sufficient to out perform most retail investors.
Additionally, during this crazy up and down journey I feel that I learnt to distinguish when the trend is up, down, RB and most importantly when to stay out.
Nifty - Screen Shot
Below Screen shot is the recent delivery trade I did on Airtel using the same technique I use for futures.
