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Max draw down: -$500
Closed -$360
Never positive enough to mention
My problem today was not sticking with the trade. I see the signal. I enter the market, and I even brought the size a few times, but I wouldn't wait for the trade to follow through, but the little losses over time added up.
Another thing I'm doing is I'm becoming channel locked trying to chase the changes in momentum, but losing for chasing it up or down before bailing out on it.
There were positive trades, but the profits were too small to measure up to anything.
Losses were never that great today.
Conclusion:
Make fewer trades by cutting out the trades with too few signals to even justify entry.
Capture profits when they are on the DOM more quickly instead of waiting for more to appear.
Stay with the trade if the signal is there.
If the trade comes back, and it breaks the last support, and the CCI breaks against the trade too, exit. Then enter further down or higher when the inflection signals return.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
The days not done for me this minute. It's half way through the day.
I screwed up when I was still in the market, and a Gasoline supply number came out. That was dumb. /ES was stalling, but oil flew up a chunk too much so fast I figured that the /ES would just follow that up. It did, and I was right, but instead of scaling in like a sane trader, I'd tie myself to an anchor, and end up at the bottom of the sea for going full position of 15 contracts.
My trade was right, but the risk management was insane.
The second I saw the trade going the wrong way I should have scaled out right then to keep from blowing up with just a few whole points down.
I was up $1600 for the day on a $150k account then down -$3000.
Other than that I've been trading today's bearish /ES trend starting in the early pre hours and first few hours perfectly.
Rolling With Punches It's thoroughly entertaining.
Another day of being right all day, but I'm mishandling my size when scaling in and out the right way for risk control. I mishandled that again, and blew out my daily draw down. Recognition and quickness are what I need to work on. Other than that I'm polishing up my technique as being complete and profitable every day.
The biggy for me is still just holding on to the trade. I'm calling out entry points like a pro, but if I get out too fast, and price action goes bad or of all things I'm not reading my indicators to see which way they saythe market is supposed to go, then I get stopped out by my stop or blown out for the day at $3000 limit.
I blew out small amounts here and there in the morning, and then blew out $3000 for the above reasons. I wasn't scaling right, and I wasn't reading my signals right. There was an economic data release or bond market that didn't happen that put a bullish trend in the oil thus the equities which were both in a bearish trend until midday.
After running my daily draw down in one account, I switched to another practice account, and I closed out with $1800 up on the day because when markets shake and move, I'm holding on to their boxing gloves pealing off my money.
After today I don't know if I'm ready to start the combine on Monday. That was the plan for the past two weeks.
The main thing about today's train wreck was that I assumed that the height of the Asian and EU rallies were indicative of a bull market in the US today. There was no bull rally though. There was a good US GDP number that popped the US Dollar, and oil sold off, so the stock market sold off. I completely blew it because I was confirmed by the EU and Asian rallies as a bull trend buy signal, but I completely missed the fact that the US GDP at 5:30 popped the dollar.
I blew out yesterday's eighteen hundred dollar gains and 2.5k more. Each one of those big sell offs off of the line were skidder loads full of dollars that I was caught long on and overweight.
Other than that I did okay. I followed the rules, and I was making money early on in the morning by buying one contract before I fell asleep. Really the US sell off after the rise on over seas activities began at 2am here, and the GDP was at 5:30 which popped the dollar up for the rest of the day. It would pay to find out what caused the US sell off at two.
I fell asleep for a really easy and obvious trade. I'm doing poorly. Maybe more like stupidly.
Now that I lay out these problems, I'm going to start a combine next week after all. Maybe on Monday. Maybe not. I'm not too far off of the mark. Technically the watchout work I do watching CNBC and FB news all of the time is to know if there is a trend coming, so I can adjust and trade accordingly. In my watch I did not include the /DX. In fact, all I did was look at EU and Asian markets, and the /DX is as important as /CL is to the way the US equities trade.
Today I wasn't getting a solid read in the pre market hours, so I waited until the open.
I should have just obeyed the CCI, but I get to into it and/or over think it. Maybe it's over trade it, but again I would have made plenty by following the rules.
One thing I missed was that there was a huge volume spike in the middle of the day after the bull rally, and then the bearish engulfing candles followed immediately after that. That should have indicated a reversal, but that slipped past me.
I need to look for engulfing candles and volume spikes more. I'm not in the routine deeply enough.
The first half of the day was a bull trend making 3 bounces off of the H Line before reversing into a very strong bear trend to finish out the rest of the day down hard. 3/4 of the way to the close a floor trader said on CNBC that there was over a billion to the sell side in the queue before the close, and it plummeted from there to the end.
The New Indi Signal:
I figured out that most of the time if the CCI has already crossed it's oversold/bot ranges passed the other side, but the price is not crossing the H Line, then it's going to be a bounce and a trend. This rarely fails. In fact you can tell something about the trend's strength by how far the CCI won't go to reach the other side before it reverses. The less it crosses before reversing the stronger the trend.
I should be looking for trend strength indicators to gauge when a reversal is likely to occur.
When I'm certain of a move, and a scale in fast and large, I need to capture 3/4 of the cons' profits at just a few ticks past entry. I notice that the largest percentage of the time when I scale in on these events, I make a bunch, but then I lose a bunch. I'm just going to blow out if I don't just bail out quickly because that window of certainty is always very short before the odds change against me, and I may experience a blow out because I hold on to the trade past the time. Most of the time I lose a bunch for not taking profits right away.
Last night I went shorted the ES just as the market was reversing. I lost a few hundred, and then waited for the pivot to confirm not long thereafter. When I could see in the volume around the pivot, and on the bounce on the H Line that the trend was to the upside as well as Asian markets in the green, I bought 1 contract. When I woke up at 6pm today I was up $800 before the open.
I shorted the open, and I didn't take profits before I was down a few hundred believing that the market was selling off after being down yesterday rejecting 1955 resistance. Today the market closed up 50 points on the high of the day.
I didn't re-enter the market all day because the bull market was so strong that price was not nearing the H Line. HUGE paper on /ES bought at 1950 yesterday, the CL & ES HUGE divergence today & strength today's trend, & VIX is below 20, so things look mighty bullish going into Fridays NonFarm Jobs report.
I saw an uptrend last night, and I bought one contract to ride it out. I looked again at about midnight, and it was up $300. I should have rolled up my stop because immediately after that, Moodys downgrades China. When I looked again, it was gone.
I tried to catch some trades before the open, and I was down a few hundred. It was because I was assuming uptrend because of the way the market traded the day before, but the rest of the day was an unbiased chopper. There was no trend.
It was nice to see the chopper day rather than trend because they are easiest to trade. I can spot the entries much easier, and they are right more consistently than when market is trending.
It's thoroughly entertaining.
