My session was from 8-9:45am. I started with ES floating around 1,835. I took a shot hoping it would make a new high, but no dice. Closed breakeven. It then made a slow push down to the 1,825 area, I tried to scalp the move down, only got like 1 pip out of it. There was way more action on EC, so I did that for the rest of the session. While it was down by 1250 I took a lazy short, but then I saw a sign of "indecision": a (candle) cross with low volume. I sat on it for another couple of minutes, saw another cross, knew I was in trouble, then got blown out by a huge push up.
I didn't see any deep pull backs on EC's rush to 1300, and I didn't want to long into that, so I just waited. Price basically stopped at 1300 at floated there, so I figured someone is going to want to fade a big move like that. I put a short at 1290, sat on that thing for too long, but then finally the fade came, I got out at 1280.
My stops need a lot of work. But if I am saying that, then it actually means my entry points suck.
I'm a little sick, so I slept in last two days (hooray self employment!), and didn't do any trading. I don't have the energy for surprises around Yellen's testimony.
I returned to an old topic of mine, order triggers. I wanted to see if changing the triggers on my orders might help my entries. Decided to leave them alone, last thing I want is to miss the trade of the week because my trigger wouldn't give me a fill.
I also revisited tick data and 15 second charts, see if I can divine any better entries points at such small resolutions. Whenever I look at those very small time frames, I really feel like I am chasing price ("quick get in!"), more than anticipating a set up, which is the way I want to approach this. The smallest time frame I am using at the moment is 1 min, and I think I'll stay there.
I use daily, hourly, and 15 min charts to decide which way the action is going, and what barriers there may be. I use the 1 min to pick my entries and exits. I mostly aim for 1 min breakouts, and sometimes try to get in on pullbacks, depending on what is going on. I'll shoot at 1 min tops and bottoms only if the action is flat and slow.
I don't use any indicators, and the only lines I mark on my charts are important handles or recent areas from which a big move originated. I just eye-ball everything.
I am still a little sick, and it is President's Day, so I am going to stick with low energy stuff. I am revisiting another old theme of mine, looking through the Time & Sales to divine possible turning points on a 1 min chart.
The first, and biggest challenge, is that my T&S prints 45 seconds after the tick hits my chart. So comparing the T&S side by side with a 1 min chart is not intuitive. The second challenge is filtering the data so it displays something useful.
Right away I have found a curiosity, on ESH16 on 2/15/16 there is a 1 min candle closing on 8:31am, which is a small cross. O 1,883.25, H 1,883.50, L 1,883.00, C 1,883.25. It closes where it opened, and only ranged up and down a quarter point. But, the volume on that candle (and the T&S) has an "up" volume of 130 contracts, and a "down" volume of only 44 contracts. How in the world does a cross candle form when the "up" volume is three times greater than the "down" volume? There are two more same sized cross candles, with a range of only two quarters, closing 8:29am and 8:44am, only their up/down volumes are 66/44 and 122/133 respectively. Those two don't have three times the volume on one side like the 8:31am candle. They are at least comparable to each other.
I have been using these cross candles as a signal, when they include a drop in volume, as a hint at a turning point on the 1 min. Looking at other crosses on the same chart at the same time of day, the up/down volume tends to be somewhat the same. That is great because when I spot a cross I am assuming the up/down volume is the same. Low volume plus supply/demand balance suggests to me indecision. I would expect price to pick a direction (show some conviction) from that area.
But how can that 8:31am cross have three times the volume on one side? Is this really even a cross candle?
There is another candle on closing 8:15, O & H is 1,885.50, and it dropped two quarts to L & C of 1,885.00...up/down volume? 61/63. How can a balanced up/down volume end in a drop of two quarters?
I'm starting to think that, if I am looking for points of "indecision" to give me possible turning points, I need to STOP looking for crosses on the chart, and just start looking for candles with equal (and low) up/down volume?
The following user says Thank You to Contract Killer for this post:
I am not sure it is the same person. Contract Killer's profile on TST says he lives in Sugar Land, Texas, not New York City. Unless he moved to New York to improve his latency.
The TST profile also says he trades the CL and ES and uses ATR, Keltner Channels and Volume and Market Profile, unlike this first post that says He trades ES and EC and maybe JY and doesn't use indicators.
Last edited by matthew28; March 1st, 2016 at 04:27 AM.
The following user says Thank You to matthew28 for this post:
I still have a lingering flu, I have had it for weeks. For all of February I had only one session, which is a disappointing waste of time.
Today is my first active session since getting sick. I started very late, not sure if I would do anything or not. I ended up trying to scalp the crude oil inventories release, just so I can get my feet wet again.
On ES I shorted below the low of the day expecting a larger drop with a super tight stop. With crude inventories overloaded, producers would have to start dumping oil, so I took it to be very bearish news. It bounced up, took me out, and I immediately longed to catch the gap close, again with a super tight stop. I moved the stop to breakeven and was taken out, even though the gap closed.
Now that the initial volatility had passed, I placed a bet that price would bounce up off the low, with another super tight stop. I got bounced out, only to see price skyrocket up. It was another one of those situations where in general I was right, but my execution kept me out of the move.
Since I dropped three trades already (I generally want just one or two per session), I would consider any more as over-trading, so I walked away with the loss.