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I agree! trade and money management have been key issues with the higher volatility. The combine rules have limited the breathing room needed over the past few weeks. Working on sizing given the higher volatility.
Thanks! Definitely lowering the lot size with the higher volatility. Tough to do when the targets are fixed. Lower contracts means lower $$. But the higher volatility decreases the risk reward ratio...
With ADR(14) ( 14 is just for reference) around 250+ ticks and intraday noise around 100 ticks it appears you are attempting to trade order flow as a human being. Your system is defined as reversal bars- with a 3-15 minute chart taking a trade after a reversal while attempting to trade orderflow seems to be a daunting task. This is just a common sense statement and not meant to undermine your present strategy. Given your avg daily losses thus far it appears you could focus on 1 or two setups at predefined Levels and give them say ¼ to 1/2 the ADR to work against you trading a smaller position size- if you were wrong you would be in the exact same position as you are currently in at the end of the day but you would have the chance to earn 100-250 ticks daily when you are correct and add on to winners to increase size. Just my 2cents and an attempt to provoke thoughts FWIW... Looking forward to following your progress and thank you for sharing.
So as not to get into building a trading system- lets just use P&F chart buy/sell signals for simplicity and use daily hi, lo and close as key support/resistance levels and targets along with ADR(14) to give an idea of the expected daily range. This is just an attempt to explain what I was talking about. (A p&F buy signal is simply a column of x's exceeding a previous column of x's)
Y_Low was 28.70 and was tested twice- a good low risk entry was available overnight at this level on the third test and one could use the -2SD band(right chart dotted green band) as a sign that the short term downtrend was going to resume and a potential exit with a goal of obtaining the ARD_H at 31.11.
Using the P&F chart one could trade to the same target and use Y_Low as a stop on the 1st or second P&F buy signal ( or get crafty and use the short term P&F buy signal following the overnight throwback) to get long.
The short term P&F chart can be used to add on to positions on the small retracements using P&F buy signals.
Trades are shown on P&F charts by arrows- key levels are on bar chart.
In both scenarios you are risking less than 1/2 the Average daily range, trading with trend, using key levels as support areas to trade around and already have had the ability to add on to a winning trade and you have about a 180 tick trade to your FIRST profit target- Y_ High being even better and a runner beyond that. To avoid getting whipsawed- hold long as long as P&F Trend chart does not print a sell signal or targets are obtained.
I will repeat- this is just an example of using key levels and ADR.
Update
Following the open you have already seen a 100 tick advance from the worst entry mentioned above and about 150 ticks had you taken the best entry and your stop would be moved to darn near breakeven using the last column lowest O. ( probably would have taken a little off here with a 100 tick lead)
Looking for a low risk add on level you say? VWAP ~ Last weeks close looks decent.
