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2016 : The year of Good Decisions


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2016 : The year of Good Decisions

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  #1 (permalink)
SF, CA/USA
 
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Resuming trading in 2016 after a hiatus due to fund depletion. Time off was good, though involuntary.

Some rules I will be trying to implement this go-round:
1. Focus on trying to make good decisions, rather than trying to make money.
2. Save the bullets for when the target is clear.
3. If the market is ranging, take points off the table.
4. Be centered

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  #3 (permalink)
Gits (Hooglede) Belgium
 
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What will you trade and based on what rules/techniques ?

Not that i want to be nosy, you wrote : "you want to safe the bullet for the target"
having a clear plan of what is the target seems like a good first step

Did you test/confirm any approach before going into the ring ?

(just trying to challenge you)

good luck

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  #4 (permalink)
SF, CA/USA
 
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rleplae View Post
What will you trade and based on what rules/techniques ?

Not that i want to be nosy, you wrote : "you want to safe the bullet for the target"
having a clear plan of what is the target seems like a good first step

Did you test/confirm any approach before going into the ring ?

(just trying to challenge you)

good luck

Thanks for the challenge. lol.

1. Ok, so I will trade anything that moves, mainly NQ, CL, ZB, EUR

2. I trade with the trend, using the week to establish the trend (this is why I'm bad during ranging markets). I use VWAP (weekly and intraday) to get an idea if intraday price is trending or not (consistently above or below vwap). Many times, the trend is obvious, and that's when I want to trade. I don't want to trade when the trend is not obvious (difficult for me). If in a trading range, Sell at vwap+2sd, buy at vwap-2SD (but that's a future setup, not one I"m comfortable employing right now). I use ProAM indicator to see where/if there is professional buying.

3. By "target" I mean targeting an obvious trend. When the trend is obvious, I want to be all in so to speak. I don't want to waste funds trying to guess the market. I don't have a monetary/point target.

4. I have not tested these techniques, as they're descretionary.

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  #5 (permalink)
Gits (Hooglede) Belgium
 
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jackbravo View Post
Thanks for the challenge. lol.

1. Ok, so I will trade anything that moves, mainly NQ, CL, ZB, EUR

2. I trade with the trend, using the week to establish the trend (this is why I'm bad during ranging markets). I use VWAP (weekly and intraday) to get an idea if intraday price is trending or not (consistently above or below vwap). Many times, the trend is obvious, and that's when I want to trade. I don't want to trade when the trend is not obvious (difficult for me). If in a trading range, Sell at vwap+2sd, buy at vwap-2SD (but that's a future setup, not one I"m comfortable employing right now). I use ProAM indicator to see where/if there is professional buying.

3. By "target" I mean targeting an obvious trend. When the trend is obvious, I want to be all in so to speak. I don't want to waste funds trying to guess the market. I don't have a monetary/point target.

4. I have not tested these techniques, as they're descretionary.

Your plan is for SIM or Cash ?

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  #6 (permalink)
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Making good Decisions is the best way to go obviously, and being excellent at what you do is a far better goal than just making money. You can make money doing a lot of things, but my satisfaction comes from knowing i made money because I know what I'm doing and i do it well.

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  #7 (permalink)
SF, CA/USA
 
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rleplae View Post
Your plan is for SIM or Cash ?

Cash. SIM is not for me. I'm been successful at SIM in the past I think because of a lack of emotion, which doesn't transfer over to real money. My main issue is not a lack of making good trades, it's making bad trades due to bad decisions spiraling into worse decisions.

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Eliott Gray View Post
Making good Decisions is the best way to go obviously, and being excellent at what you do is a far better goal than just making money. You can make money doing a lot of things, but my satisfaction comes from knowing i made money because I know what I'm doing and i do it well.

Absolutely. I aspire to excellence...someday!

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  #9 (permalink)
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While there have been glimmers of hope, I find myself repeating bad habits of making decisions out of fear, rather than context, not limiting my risk, and not protecting profits. I'm working on shifting mentally to a probability-based mindset, where each trade has a probable edge of being a good trade, rather than thinking in terms of certainty. Being mentally flexible in order to be in sync with market flow and assimilate new market information should it present itself, even if counter to my original plan. Technical and macro analysis of the market is not sufficient in itself to put on good trades, if the trades are not with present market flow.

My focus will be on implementing:

1. Risk control with every trade
2. Cutting losses
3. Profit taking

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SF, CA/USA
 
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jackbravo View Post

1. Risk control with every trade
2. Cutting losses
3. Profit taking

While I have been implementing the above goals, I feel like I've swung the other way to the extreme of fear, and I'm getting completely chopped up. In a gorgeous one-trade day like today that would've netted 30pts, I lost about 2 points jumping in and out of trades all day. I'm not sure why I'm able to hold a short for 40 points but can't hold a long more than 5.

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Market Wizard
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jackbravo View Post
While I have been implementing the above goals, I feel like I've swung the other way to the extreme of fear, and I'm getting completely chopped up. In a gorgeous one-trade day like today that would've netted 30pts, I lost about 2 points jumping in and out of trades all day. I'm not sure why I'm able to hold a short for 40 points but can't hold a long more than 5.


Hey there, just a few possible thoughts, without knowing a lot of detail. One thing I've noticed and heard mentioned is that shorts vs longs do move differently, in general. Sellers are panicky and often create quick waterfall-like drops. Buyers can impulse also in a short-squeeze (again sellers panicking), but more often they tend to meander their way higher in a stair-step fashion.

If you track duration of trades that move x ticks in your favor, you may notice the longs are going a bit slower, making it more difficult to ride them to the finish line.

If it's more than that ... if you actually have a persistent short bias (regularly taking more shorts than longs), then that is a whole other can of worms. Because shorts tend to move faster, they also could be more "thrilling." A trader might lean toward short trades if they are seeking that thrill.

But to get more to the root of it ... when you say "I'm not sure why I'm able to hold ...", that implies not being certain of the rationale behind exiting the trade. I bring this up only to suggest a possible direction to look in for the answer... believe me, I struggle with this myself. It is not an easy or simple problem. But perhaps it can be easier if you clarify the circumstances and reasons behind exiting a trade as defined in your method.

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SF, CA/USA
 
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FlyingMonkey View Post
But to get more to the root of it ... when you say "I'm not sure why I'm able to hold ...", that implies not being certain of the rationale behind exiting the trade. I bring this up only to suggest a possible direction to look in for the answer... believe me, I struggle with this myself. It is not an easy or simple problem. But perhaps it can be easier if you clarify the circumstances and reasons behind exiting a trade as defined in your method.

Thanks for your thoughts, FM.

I was going through my trades yesterday. I usually exit based on price action. I think one of the problems when I'm long is my focus narrows to short time frame price action. When I'm short, I'm able to keep a wider perspective. I feel like my real fear is losing profits in a trade going in my favor, rather than losing money in a trade going against me. I guess I've experienced trades going in my favor to generate substantial profits, then watching the profits vanish from waiting too long. I need to find a way to take some profits so I don't feel like I'm missing out.

Maybe I need to go to 2 contracts.

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jackbravo View Post

Maybe I need to go to 2 contracts.

My 2 cents advise don't increase your size unless you are already profitable and comfortable with you trading. It won't help it will just make you more nervous and increase your loses.

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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SF, CA/USA
 
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Thanks for your comments Okina.

This week was better in terms of making good decisions and not making as many bad ones.

I still have an issue with targets....holding until a target is hit, but the thing reverses and all profit is lost. I think this is why people trade multiple contracts, to secure some profit. Otherwise, my hit rate is 20-30%.

Still, some progress this week.

Always feel like this on the weekends....



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king of prussia
 
 
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If you want to hear the truth, every trader repeats those. So there is nothing new and probably wont help you.
Instead your aproach should be something like this.
1. I will really learn how to read charts( market) [ Not candle sticks, no moving average or any techinical indicator - none of those work] - Dont goto combines, $1500 weekend seminars - none of those will help. Learn from true professonal - yes expensive - but expense is peanuts when all set and done.
2. Know exact Risk/Reward
3. Adhere to Risk/Reward principal - Your average winning % > 50, and average Risk/Reward ratio > 3
4 Start with ES - Best market to start as a pro trader - [ you can test others once you are true winner]
5. Professional trader - ends day green atleast 9 out of 10 days .

I hope I just layed down some rules. Everything else - such as psychology, platforms, indicators.... all waste of money

Create your own luck -

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  #16 (permalink)
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
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Posts: 1,339 since Jun 2014
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Still making bad decisions. Some old habits are very, very hard to get rid. Right now, I'm battling the countertrend picking bottoms and tops thing. For some reason, I feel like I "know" how to trade, but can't seem to execute it. I'm really trying to work on trading off levels and timing, instead of real-time interpretation (my realtime interpretation sucks). Since I'm much better at evaluating things in retrospect, I'm going to try to trade off my prospective interpretation...I just have to figure out how allow myself to be in the trade, right or wrong during real time.

As an inside, just saw this head and shoulders on USDJPY. If the ES tracks it, it looks like we have some upside left, before a lot of downside.


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  #17 (permalink)
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Adam Grimes


The early bird… gets stopped out a lot

by AdamHGrimes | Dec 15, 2015 | Trend Termination | 2 Comments

One of the themes I’ve written on recently is that we need to be careful how we think about trend change and end of trend patterns. I think too much of noise, particularly in social media, is focused on trying to take a position against a trend so that the person who called the trade can be a hero when the market later proves him right. In a world with enough people tweeting trades, there will be some standout results just due to chance, but it’s much harder to make money this way than you might think. There are better ways to trade than trying (now, December 2015) to buy crude oil and short stocks!

I’ve written about some of the reasons why trying to position against the trend can be harmful in other blog posts, but I just want to highlight two today. First, remember that a trend can end into a trading range. This is very common–we see a trending market stop trending and simply go flat. Second, if we do get the anticipated trend reversal, we can get in with higher confidence and make better trades once the new trend has made itself clear.

Very guilty....very, very guilty

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