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2016 : The year of Good Decisions
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2016 : The year of Good Decisions

  #11 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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jackbravo View Post
While I have been implementing the above goals, I feel like I've swung the other way to the extreme of fear, and I'm getting completely chopped up. In a gorgeous one-trade day like today that would've netted 30pts, I lost about 2 points jumping in and out of trades all day. I'm not sure why I'm able to hold a short for 40 points but can't hold a long more than 5.


Hey there, just a few possible thoughts, without knowing a lot of detail. One thing I've noticed and heard mentioned is that shorts vs longs do move differently, in general. Sellers are panicky and often create quick waterfall-like drops. Buyers can impulse also in a short-squeeze (again sellers panicking), but more often they tend to meander their way higher in a stair-step fashion.

If you track duration of trades that move x ticks in your favor, you may notice the longs are going a bit slower, making it more difficult to ride them to the finish line.

If it's more than that ... if you actually have a persistent short bias (regularly taking more shorts than longs), then that is a whole other can of worms. Because shorts tend to move faster, they also could be more "thrilling." A trader might lean toward short trades if they are seeking that thrill.

But to get more to the root of it ... when you say "I'm not sure why I'm able to hold ...", that implies not being certain of the rationale behind exiting the trade. I bring this up only to suggest a possible direction to look in for the answer... believe me, I struggle with this myself. It is not an easy or simple problem. But perhaps it can be easier if you clarify the circumstances and reasons behind exiting a trade as defined in your method.

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  #12 (permalink)
One day...
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FlyingMonkey View Post
But to get more to the root of it ... when you say "I'm not sure why I'm able to hold ...", that implies not being certain of the rationale behind exiting the trade. I bring this up only to suggest a possible direction to look in for the answer... believe me, I struggle with this myself. It is not an easy or simple problem. But perhaps it can be easier if you clarify the circumstances and reasons behind exiting a trade as defined in your method.

Thanks for your thoughts, FM.

I was going through my trades yesterday. I usually exit based on price action. I think one of the problems when I'm long is my focus narrows to short time frame price action. When I'm short, I'm able to keep a wider perspective. I feel like my real fear is losing profits in a trade going in my favor, rather than losing money in a trade going against me. I guess I've experienced trades going in my favor to generate substantial profits, then watching the profits vanish from waiting too long. I need to find a way to take some profits so I don't feel like I'm missing out.

Maybe I need to go to 2 contracts.

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  #13 (permalink)
 R.I.P. 1969-2016 
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jackbravo View Post

Maybe I need to go to 2 contracts.

My 2 cents advise don't increase your size unless you are already profitable and comfortable with you trading. It won't help it will just make you more nervous and increase your loses.

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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  #14 (permalink)
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Thanks for your comments Okina.

This week was better in terms of making good decisions and not making as many bad ones.

I still have an issue with targets....holding until a target is hit, but the thing reverses and all profit is lost. I think this is why people trade multiple contracts, to secure some profit. Otherwise, my hit rate is 20-30%.

Still, some progress this week.

Always feel like this on the weekends....


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  #15 (permalink)
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If you want to hear the truth, every trader repeats those. So there is nothing new and probably wont help you.
Instead your aproach should be something like this.
1. I will really learn how to read charts( market) [ Not candle sticks, no moving average or any techinical indicator - none of those work] - Dont goto combines, $1500 weekend seminars - none of those will help. Learn from true professonal - yes expensive - but expense is peanuts when all set and done.
2. Know exact Risk/Reward
3. Adhere to Risk/Reward principal - Your average winning % > 50, and average Risk/Reward ratio > 3
4 Start with ES - Best market to start as a pro trader - [ you can test others once you are true winner]
5. Professional trader - ends day green atleast 9 out of 10 days .

I hope I just layed down some rules. Everything else - such as psychology, platforms, indicators.... all waste of money

Create your own luck -

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  #16 (permalink)
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Still making bad decisions. Some old habits are very, very hard to get rid. Right now, I'm battling the countertrend picking bottoms and tops thing. For some reason, I feel like I "know" how to trade, but can't seem to execute it. I'm really trying to work on trading off levels and timing, instead of real-time interpretation (my realtime interpretation sucks). Since I'm much better at evaluating things in retrospect, I'm going to try to trade off my prospective interpretation...I just have to figure out how allow myself to be in the trade, right or wrong during real time.

As an inside, just saw this head and shoulders on USDJPY. If the ES tracks it, it looks like we have some upside left, before a lot of downside.

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  #17 (permalink)
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Adam Grimes


The early birdÖ gets stopped out a lot

by AdamHGrimes | Dec 15, 2015 | Trend Termination | 2 Comments

One of the themes Iíve written on recently is that we need to be careful how we think about trend change and end of trend patterns. I think too much of noise, particularly in social media, is focused on trying to take a position against a trend so that the person who called the trade can be a hero when the market later proves him right. In a world with enough people tweeting trades, there will be some standout results just due to chance, but itís much harder to make money this way than you might think. There are better ways to trade than trying (now, December 2015) to buy crude oil and short stocks!

Iíve written about some of the reasons why trying to position against the trend can be harmful in other blog posts, but I just want to highlight two today. First, remember that a trend can end into a trading range. This is very commonĖwe see a trending market stop trending and simply go flat. Second, if we do get the anticipated trend reversal, we can get in with higher confidence and make better trades once the new trend has made itself clear.

Very guilty....very, very guilty

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