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FM's Trade Log

  #211 (permalink)
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 FlyingMonkey 
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Ddawg View Post
Thanks for this. I have been in the same boat. Best wishes with your trading!

Danny

Hey @Ddawg thanks for the note! Happy to know some of my tribulations are going to good use.

To put it in context, below is my PnL (in Ticks) after commissions since resuming live trading on March 30. As you can see, haven't been doing very well since June, but I'm still close to covering costs. Not the results I am aiming for, but still better results than I've had in a long time. I've logged 90 trades, posted almost every single one here in the journal, and I haven't bled the account dry. Not great, but not horrible. There's definitely stuff I'm doing here that I can build on.

On another note, @Ddawg your journal's been dormant since April! Bring it back! I know it's hard to post if the results are not where you want them to be ... been there. I stopped journaling here for a while in winter while I was "figuring stuff out" again. But even an occasional post summarizing the work you've been doing can help. I find that when writing stuff out, I sort of synthesize things and it can make the path forward clearer.


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  #212 (permalink)
 
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 FlyingMonkey 
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Monday 10 Jul 2017
==================

CL dropped sharply overnight and seems to have 43.00 in its sights. We have two potential trajectories coming out of this steep wedge.




So we may take a break here at 43.50-.60, maybe bounce a little bit and retrace half the overnight move, say back up to 44 and then see what appens. Or we may keep pressing through down to 43. Currently below Y_Low and LW_Low. If market can retake those and really break higher, we could be looking at a change in direction. But my first bet is on a continuation lower to 43. Keeping an open mind today. If I try one thing and it doesn't work, I'll consider trying the other thing instead.




-9. For a first day trying a slightly modified approach, I wasn't horrible. I went for a short in line with me "weakness continues" bias. When that failed I re-evaluated and decided long was the way, which was a good call. But I tried to get in long and failed. That mistake is on me and basically killed the day. I then tried a short and scraped out 2 ticks before it turned into a loser. Then I tried a reach-y long from .25. That was a bit hopeful and I took a small loss there.

Gone are the auto-trailing stops. Back in rotation is the touchy-feely movement of targets and stops and bailing on trades that aren't working. Combining what I learned from months of "hands off" to see if now I'm not so jumpy on the trigger finger. There are some new blinking lights on the charts, some of my own design, which always spells disaster. We'll see.


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  #213 (permalink)
 Ddawg 
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FlyingMonkey View Post
To put it in context, below is my PnL (in Ticks) after commissions since resuming live trading on March 30. As you can see, haven't been doing very well since June, but I'm still close to covering costs. Not the results I am aiming for, but still better results than I've had in a long time. I've logged 90 trades, posted almost every single one here in the journal, and I haven't bled the account dry. Not great, but not horrible. There's definitely stuff I'm doing here that I can build on.

On another note, @Ddawg your journal's been dormant since April! Bring it back! I know it's hard to post if the results are not where you want them to be ... been there. I stopped journaling here for a while in winter while I was "figuring stuff out" again. But even an occasional post summarizing the work you've been doing can help. I find that when writing stuff out, I sort of synthesize things and it can make the path forward clearer.

Thanks for the nudge FM. I have been sort of lying low....been trading my live account instead of a combine. Sometimes in the combine I feel pressured to take a trade, any trade...With my live account, it really doesn't matter if I just sit here all week until something good comes along.

Congrats on your trading. You are definitely keeping your losses small, which is a big deal in my opinion. When you hit a couple of good days in a row, you will be positive, which I find starts to build on itself.

I have had a problem with that ONE HORRIBLE DAY!!! syndrome. LOL Just a day that completely wipes out several days of solid trading. So I have been thinking and working on that for several weeks. Basically, the idea is; "what is my plan if this turns into a bad day". This is actually helping me. To rework an old trading axiom: the winners take care of themselves, its the losers you have to handle properly.

I may restart the journal, I found out that I was trading just as dumb with the journal as without it!!! Figured I need to work out some of my own issues.

Thanks again,
Danny

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  #214 (permalink)
 
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 FlyingMonkey 
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Tuesday 11 Jul 2017
===================

Pressure is still on buyers to show they can hold demand at 44 and higher. Y_Low of 43.65 is still holding for now. Will it last through today?



Very similar to yesterday morning, hovering around 44 even and we had over 100 tick dump overnight and trying to form a ase heading into the open..



I missed a good long opportunity straight off the open. And then I completely botched another long opportunity. I was on the right side of the market and just let old twitchy fingers get in the way. Had a trade locked and loaded with a 25 tick target and threw it in the garbage. Tomorr'ow's report day so I will work on replay most likely. I need to lay out the pieces of my execution strategy and my setups, consider them, and particularly on the subject of when-to-exit I want to look for some simple rules I can follow to avoid today's scenario. I'm thinking about anchoring my stops below candles on the 5000-volume chart, rather than constantly eyeing the 1000-volume and every tick relative to my entry as either a dagger or a tickle. I still feel like I'm on the bloody edge of turning some kind of corner here but it is a really long, wide turn. Hope it's not a downward spiral
-6

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  #215 (permalink)
 
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Thursday 13 Jul 2017
====================

The CL market may just be settling into a consolidation here between 44 and 47 as the moves become less dramatic in each direction. This should be a positive sign for bulls longer term, as long as they can keep prices above 43.50, continuing to find new buyers at these levels to soak up remaining downward pressure.



Action overnight has been range bound fro 45. - 45.60. Premarket we just had a little pulse up to new HOD. Would be nice to see a pullback to the high .30s for a long opportunity. Lots of econ reports coming at 8:30am so I'm waiting for those to hit and we'll see if an entry comes up before the session opens.

Beyond that, I'm leaning to the buying side at all major levels. If we can't make new HODs after the open, I'll open the door wider on short opportunities particularly below 45.25.



Solid. +18 on one loser, one winner.


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  #216 (permalink)
 
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 FlyingMonkey 
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Friday 14 Jul 2017
==================

Up a little bit late today, but still able to prep for the open. Market put together a nice continuation overnight to 46.75 and is taking a step back to 46.50 heading into the open. I'll give both sides equal attention here. On the one hand the strength is impressive and a 47 touch may be the first leg of the day. On the other hand, CL has a strong tendency to reverse the overnight move especially when extended close to major resistance, which 47 - 47.40 should be.




As I was looking at my next chart, CL went ahead and dumped below 46. I'll be leaning short in this case. Looking for a move back up to Y_High for my ideal setup.




-5 - 7+3 for -9 on the day. -9 -6 + 18 - 9 for -6 on the week. I traded OK today - not great, but despite having an incorrect read I was able to put myself in one decent trade. I switched sides once the misread became clear. My long trade didn't break, again reading a little off looking for more buying strength than was really there. I almost had a spot to get back in but there was a lot of congestion at that point and I didn't take it. Didn't end up breaking HOD by more than a couple ticks anyways.


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  #217 (permalink)
 
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 FlyingMonkey 
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What if it's all for nothing?
What if what's all for nothing?
Trading, like, what if I never get to where I'm trying to go?
Everything's for nothing. What's anything for? What's our life for?
It's for family, for the kids, the ones we love, for fun, for tears, it's for you and me, it's for the world, it's for everything.
Well, then, you like trading right?
Yeah but I like a lot of things.
But you really like trading?
Yeah.
Then keep doing it.
You are so wise.

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  #218 (permalink)
 
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 FlyingMonkey 
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Tuesday 18 Jul 2017
===================

Did not trade yesterday. Been exhausted the past few days. Back in the seat today. This is going to be my last week for July as next week I'm off on some travels for a few weeks.
CL made a nice clean move into 47 overnight but wasn't able to continue through it.



Still looking for the possibility that this move breaks through 47.20 for a big move up, but it's equally possible that it's spent and needs to retrace back to 46.50. I've got my zones laid out and will play them accordingly.



+15 today. I was not thinking straight for the first entry which started me off at -10. I may need to declutter the workspace a bit as I got distracted from my primary plan while looking at some other gizzywidgets. Otherwise good performance.


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  #219 (permalink)
 
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 FlyingMonkey 
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Thursday 20 Jul 2017
====================

CL touched its highest point on a continuous contract basis since June 7. As we head into the 8:30 econ reports and ECB news conference, CL is trading above Y_High. Will be watching to see if long term players come in and buy at these prices to continue the move to 48. Y_High and today's VWAP being lines in the sand




Alright, so here's the plan. If we see continued pressure on the HOD, expect a pop and glide up to 48. If we dip back below 47.50, then Y_High, then VWAP, then we aren't seeing commitment from long term traders at the highs yet. Look for a dip back to 47.25 - 47 to find more buyers. If we give up the overnight lows, look out for continued weakness to as far as 46.50.




1 trade, +10.


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  #220 (permalink)
 
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 FlyingMonkey 
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Friday 21 Jul 2017
==================

CL just couldn't find buyers over 47.50 yesterday, putting in a low yesterday at 46.81, and has corrected down to 46.35 overnight.




Naturally the bulls will want to take back 46.81 today.Are there enough buyers at 46.50 to hold us here and return us to the up side? I will be looking short as we get closer to 46.81 but will be open to longs from the 46.50 - 46.70 area if the action holds. Dip below 46.50 and LOD becomes very vulnerable.. There were higher lows at 46.42 and 46.46, and below that we're likely on our way to 46 even.




-6. The market gave me essentially exactly what I wanted. The run up to Y_Low? Check. Then a move back down to LOD? Check. I got pretty irritated with orders sitting one tick off the action that did not get filled. Waited for too much confirmation before placing, waited for too much price after placing.

For the week,+15 +10 -6 = +19. Kind of an anticlimactic end to an otherwise good week, as I was really feeling it the past couple days. Today I believe just comes down to my attention level being less than it needs to be. I often find, when I'm a little bit fatigued, I can still make my way to the desk, get my analysis straight, but when it comes to executing I am not keeping my head in the game, getting distracted and just a little behind where I need to be. If I am able to improve this aspect of my discipline, I believe execution should improve.


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