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Alright, trying to tighten up this ship today. CL has broken out of its bearish jail cell but it's got a lot of work to do if wants to wear the glass slippers. 48.08 and 48.40 above.47.75, .57,.50, .11 and 47 even below.
Overnight was a nice orderly retracement from the 48.40 high to exactly 50% of the move from 47.09, finding support just above .75. We have inventory numbers coming at 10:30 eastern. I'm going to be patient today and wait for clear spots. I'll be more likely to look for longs if we bust out of this overnight down channel, or perhaps on abounce play closer to 47.50. I'll be more likely to look for shorts if we can sustain below .75 with weak action. Movement can often be a bit muted and wonky leading up to the numbers, but opportunities can still arise. If no trades come, no trades come.
Currently we are trading just below VWAP. We are above yesterday's VWAP, middle of yesterday's range, and bottom third of last week's range.
Much better today. +7. I missed some movement but I needed to reset my approach and only take the best spots today, and I did. It's amazing how easy it is to drift slightly astray and if you don't pay attention and listen to the market's feedback, it only gets worse. In every month so far I've had one trip off the rails but each time I've gotten it back on track. That's the goal this week. Remind myself the key tenants of my approach, and focus on them. Err on side of caution for now.
A very healthy dose of headlines today with UK elections results and US Congress Comedy Theatre start of Act 2. I was very tempted to stay in bed due to poor sleep, but here I am.
We're getting close to 52 week lows again on the adjusted continuous contract. A bounce here should be expected, but there is certainly room for it to just keep going down. I get a little dubious of the older levels sitting below 44 and may check some non-adjusted charts for reference and use a combination.
We are cleanly below last week's low and also below yesterday's range. The energy is clearly on the sell side, and despite the heavily sold market, I should still be favoring shorts unless I see a heavyv confluence of good reasons to try a long.
Meh. I think the fatigue did effect me this morning. All that thrashing around for -8 overall. At least I didn't do any serious damage considering no real winners here.
CL moving primarily sideways overnight. Overall market trajectory still down.
Zooming in, I've highlighted what I see as the tradable extremes of the range. As price approaches those areas in the 45.85+ and 45.40- range, I'll look for reversals toward VWAP. If price starts behaving with intent, I'll revise my approach and start looking at directional trades.
Didn't get any fills today, though I did have a few orders waiting for a while. Based on my rangebound thesis, II was commited to only taking trades from the outside-in today. Price just didn't get far enough outside for my liking. +0
So not a great week but nothing I can't crawl back from. -14 -19 +7 -8 +0 = -25. There's a lot to learn still, a lot to refine. I feel I have progressed from a crap trader to a kind-of-so-so-sort-of-crap-trader. So, that's progress. Keeping my expectations in check, but still really optimistic about continued progress this month and beyond. A lot of work to be done.
Today was an interesting day - I was right in my initial rangebound bias, but still having difficulty deciding where the right edges were, how and when to be agressive or cautious, and capitalizing on it. Then, as I was focused on the range, I lost sight of the higher lows compressing the range upward. After I left the screen, a nice clean channel up did form, even if it did eventually hit the outer range limit and turn back down.
Layers upon layers of structure. It comes down to synthesis and having a fluid narration at multiple tiers in parallel.
Starting from the top. The crude oil market is making a very strong move to break out of its downward channel. Last Friday gave us a double bottom and Sunday overnight has given us a higher low and a higher high. If we can hold 46.50, CL should track up to 47.05 and 47.55 quickly. That would be the cleanest option. Otherwise look for a lot of messy chop around 46.50, with extremes at 47 and 46.
Where can I get a good price today? Where am I confident that I'm getting a good deal? Where will I get my one good trade? Well, for starters, I'm reluctant to be a seller today given the buying pressure. For me to sell this market, I'd really want to see sustained trading below the 46.53 area. OR I'd want to see price get up to 46.85 and start to curl over, signifying buyers weren't ready to take it over 47. On the buy side, I've got one major problem. That is the big red down channel upper boundary sitting right in my face. If it weren't for that, I'd just let the market open, see if it holds over 46.50, and then take a buy as close to there as possible. What that means is I have a bit of a waiting game to get clear 46.75 and buy a little pull back if I'm going in long.
No trades. Almost had a short from .48 that might have hit target, depending how I played it. Letting it go.
CL is trying to hold last week's close. If it deeps much further, below 46.60 starts to look very weak.
Where are my bargains? Here I've drawn a few spots for potential turns lower and higher. The market's primary trajectory is down, but we're still holding onto a potential higher-high higher-low pattern as long as we stay above 45.66. My preference today is to sell at higher prices. Buying at lower prices has some potential, but the risk of a drop-off seems higher than the risk of a huge move up today.
I think I'm going to start a thought experiment. Based on my preferred Long and Short spots, I'm going to note here a max of two limit entry with bracket stop+target, or exit at close. The stop can be as wide as 60 ticks, and the target can be whatever seems appropriate, exit at 2:30 ET if not hit. I'll track the results of these paper trades. My thought is that, since my swing trading method so far has been going rather well, maybe it will help me to steal some pieces of that method and apply them to my day trading. Just testing it out for now.
Today: SELL Limit entry at 46.14. Stop at 46.58. Target 45.71. / BUY limit 45.70, Stop at 45.35, Target 46.13.
I don't know if I'll post these every day, but I'll definitely track them seperately and will follow up here if anything fruitful comes from it.
Today's live day trading results. 1 Trade, +14. Got the turn from .66.
Swing trading: I entered a dubious long in Miners yesterday. Today I'm looking for a Dow short, and a long in 20-yr treasuries. Will post an update oin swing positions when time permits.
A heavy dose of scheduled releases today. Consumer and retail data at 8:30 eastern, Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30 eastern.FOMC at 2pm eastern.
Similar picture today terchnically. The 45.65 level has been defended well three times. Buyers need to take it over 46.55 and keep it there, and clear 46.75 soon after. As long as price stays below 46.50, the likelihood of a dip back toward $45 should be considered reasonably probable.
Where my deals at? If the market is going to stay in its range, then these are the levels that become interesting for turning points. The red would be high prices worth selling. The green are low prices worth buying. But if the market becomes directional, exhibiting clear strength in one way or another, than my interest shifts to use these as bounce points on a trip out toward, and potentially beyond the extremes. For today there are two main factors currently helping tip my bias. One: Inventory report later, means that typically market isn't going to do too much until then - it may move toward one extreme of the range, but it isn't likely to break it until the report hits. Two: The fact that the low from June 8 still hasn't broken, and the low from June 11 (45.66) was challenged and successfully defended yesterday, makes me think that there are a lot of buyers ready still stepping in to keep oil above $45. It could go either way, and the squeeze below $45.50 if it gets there should be really severe. But right now the ball is in the buyers' court.
-5 on one trade. My analysis today was not bad, but I could have executed it much better. Not too unhappy with the one trade I did take - it had a chance. But there was at least one, maybe two or three more that were worth a shot that I missed.
The swing in Gold Miners is looking good so far. I got a fill at the high yesterday for a short on the Dow, which is holding its own for now. Bonds went of to the races without me.
Yesterday was retarded. I need to get my head in the game. This is my business and I'm here to make money not drop 5 ticks and say,."oh well it's not that bad." I spent a lot of time learning how to remove emotion from my trading. Now I need to learn how to inject a little emotion back in, where appropriate. I need to light up my brain and think a few steps ahead. Confidence, planning, decisiveness, awareness.
We are hitting up against some levels that are really, really old. Will have to pull out the daily chart if we go much further. It is likely we will have a bounce sometime soon, or at least track sideways. I'd be surprised if we went straight into a nose dive to 43 without taking a breather but it's on the table for sure. Front month is rolling over to August between today and tomorrow.
Market is trying to nudge its way back over yesterday's low. We are currently below last week's low. If we get a bounce, look for last week's low as a target.
Here's the rough roadmap. If price comes down to 44.25, I want to see that level firm up and consider buying it. Technically on the 120 this market has more room to run lower, down to 44.10 and then 43.95. So if the move down to 44.25 is really furious, skip the buy. If however it's sort of a la-dee-da noncomittal move, take it. If it blows through 44.25, or if you take a loss, re-evaluate, don't blindly try to play bounces. This market is still major trajectory = down so don't fight it if the energy is all follow-through selling.
The easiest trades to take from a confidence standpoint will be shorts. The first spot is heading into 44.70 - .75. There's a lot of commit there and it should serve as a significant line of defense. Even if the move up into it is pretty strong. take it. If you take a loss, anticipate price will squeeze higher. Try to make an assessment if that squeeze is going to hold the .75 level, or if it just shakes out loose hands and dips back below for another run lower. If .75 is holding, there's an option for a long in there for a bounce up to 45.20. Expect that to run, so be agressive on the long side if you need to. If you take a loss, stand down, but if it's working press it.
Finally, if we do run up to 45.20, look for it to roll over and short it. Beyond that, re-evaluate.
OK, here's how it panned out. Patiently followed the plan. I made an effort in my planning to think at least a few steps ahead. +12.
Here we are. Market really likes this down channel now a few weeks old. There is some building / housing start data coming at 8:30 et. Probably not a significant mover for Oil.
44.45 bounced pretty good. Yesterday's range was unusually tight and overnight we traversed the entire range and now trade above it. Point to the buyers. It seems very likely they will take this up to test last week's low at 45.41 (merged contract),. If we test 45.00, buy that level. There is a lot of congestion below and it is a high probabiility bounce. I've actually already taken this entry now as I type this. Could have gotten a lower fill but this was a Waiting Order that got blown through a bit. I'm in it now and waiting as it dances around below my entry).
If we run up, in the 45.35 - 45.40 area is an interesting place to look for it to turn back down.Get a sense of how strong the buying is, and take a short if reasonably confident. This is still a sellers market and I'm OK taking a short that's counter to the intraday trend as long as it's not a rip-roaring move.
If this trade I'm in fails and dips back below 45 and holds there, take it as a sign that buyers just aren't ready yet. We could get stuck again in the same range from yesterday. Look to sell, but try to wait for price to get below 45.82 and take a short playing for yesterday's low. Again, going with the range thesis, look to buy around yesterday's low if it happens to get there. Beyond, re-evaluate.
Here's what went down. My 5:30 entry got very little movement so I was long into the open. I was tempted to pull it before the open, but I left it. At the open, price jostled around a bit and settled a few ticks below my entry for a couple minutes... I was still OK with this trade, so I continued to hold. The market swept below 45 and came within 1 tick of stopping me out at my auto-raised stop of -10 before coming back and retaking 45. At this point, I was happy to walk away and let the trade work itself out. Often if price sweeps that close to your stop and then comes back to the entry, it will continue. Sometimes it won't, but I knew at that point my stop was in an OK spot. Stopped out after 63 minutes for -10. At this point it's unlikely the market is going to get to any of my other inflection points before I need to leave for the day. Days like today make me want to start practicing scalping 5 ticks on sim in parallel to my current approach. With that sort of approach I might have gotten something out of this lazy action
CL continues is methodical descent, but the action has been clearly sideways / up for the past couple days. Will it decide to finally bust over 45.50 and out of this channel?
With the market trading sideways/up within a larger downward trend, the action has been kind of challenging to read and choppy. I have taken the first entry of the day, a very similar trade to the one I took on Friday that resulted in a loss. Having climbed about 60 ticks from the overnight lows to highs, and retraced half that distance back into VWAP, I'm taking a long back up to the low 45s, shy of any major resistance that may crop up. It's taking its sweet time deciding which way to go from here. I'm going to tighten my stop to the lows, not interested in getting blown out for a full stop on this idea.
If we blast higher, clearing 45.15, there's a spot for a small-target long up there. Major resitance kicks in around 45.40 adn then at 45.50, where we can look for shorts. If we fail below VWAP, doors open for further shorts but there is a lot of congestion in the 44.80 - 45 zone. I'd suggest waiting for 44.75 before pushing it.
Heading into the open, I'm pulling my trade off at BE. That ended up being it for the day. +0. That entry I took would have hit target if I had left it and not touched my stop, but I don't regret pulling the trade. If anything I could have gotten back in long after the shakeout. Market really only had that one decent move during my morning. Rest was all for the scalpers. I have started sim-scalping in parallel, just to see what I can learn from it. Will follow up if anything interesting materializes.
Long day yesterday, early appointment across town, wasn't able to trade. Up a little late today. Inventory report in less than two hours.
Buyers clearly came in very strong at 43 yesterday morning, and then upon a retest overnight they stepped in again and have pushed us back above yesterday's close.
43.80 is holding for now, but the tape is telling a tale of upside strength. The inventory report waiting game may put a damper on any major movements for now, so there is a possibility we just bounce around inbetween .60 and .80. A long off .60 is the most likely scenario and opportunity to present itself early this morning. If .80 breaks, take longs for the melt up to 44.25-44.35. Small target shorts from 43.75 - .80 area if the action is looking weak. Shorts below 43.60 and especially below 43.50, but be careful as price gets lower the bargain hunters will probably step back in. Generally speaking this morning I will trade for smaller targets (due to non-commital pre-report behavior) and favoring the long side.
-9 on one trade today. I think that starting next week I'm going to try to use Wednesday as my sleep-in day. I might casually practice scalping on report days but I think the sleep is more valuable to me than the pre-report meh action.
