FM's Trade Log - futures io
futures io



FM's Trade Log


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one FlyingMonkey with 298 posts (951 thanks)
    2. looks_two Rrrracer with 18 posts (28 thanks)
    3. looks_3 jackbravo with 17 posts (23 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Blue Eagle with 7 posts (19 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one FlyingMonkey with 3.2 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Blue Eagle with 2.7 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 Rrrracer with 1.6 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 jackbravo with 1.4 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 40,958 views
    2. thumb_up 1,115 thanks given
    3. group 41 followers
    1. forum 384 posts
    2. attach_file 762 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

FM's Trade Log

(login for full post details)
  #1 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

A bit about my trading: I am at the screen an hour or two per day between work and family obligations. Depending on what is setting up during the hours I am on the screen, I might trade ZN, 6E, ES, CL, ZS, or any other reasonably liquid contract.

I encourage any and all constructive comments / questions / advice / posting your own trades on this thread.

Unless otherwise noted, the trades in here will be real, not sim. I would rate my skill-level at just a little bit above novice. Tried a few different styles over the last 5 years, each with a lessening degree of failure. Now I am profitable over the last few months, but those profits are modest. Trying to keep the streak going and build on it. If things do start to slip significantly, I'll have to drop down to sim and regroup. Not planning for that to happen.

Various real and artificial constraints at the moment have me averaging less than one trade per day. I'll try to post them here as often as time permits. Generally my winners are 2 or 3 times the losers, but I have quite a few break-even or near-break-even trades mixed in. I can't sit at my screen while trades are open, so I use regular trailing stops. This has some obvious disadvantages, but so far I've calculated that the pros outweigh the cons. This is an aspect of my method that I continously monitor.

Today's trade was a bit of a whipsaw, and one of the rare cases where trailing my stop caused some harm. Took an average loss. Even so, had I been in front of the screen in the following minutes, it looks like price gave another opportunity to get short. I was not, and wouldn't have taken it anyways, since at the moment I avoid trading after even a moderate loss. So it goes.

15 minute 6C attached showing -13 ticks on this trade. I've marked it up and generally will try to keep consistent with Blue line entries, Green targets, and Red stops. I may also post before / after images in the future.



-FM

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
EasyLanguage: fetch option price using Stock ticker
EasyLanguage Programming
Denali Data?
Sierra Chart
heatmap order flow +
NinjaTrader
NT8 connectivity by FXI API to unsupported brokers?
NinjaTrader
Anybody uses Bookmap with Tradestation?
TradeStation
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on futures io
How much do you know about Bitcoin?
57 thanks
FIO Journal Challenge - April 2021 w/Jigsaw Trading
38 thanks
The Crude Dude Oil Trading System
36 thanks
I finally blew up an account
35 thanks
The tiyfTradePlanFactory indicator
21 thanks
 
(login for full post details)
  #3 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received


Sort of a tough one today. Didn't lose any money, so that is the bright spot.

Heading into the open a lot of items had been been bought up overnight into overhead resistance. CL, ES, 6A, to name a few. I waited for them to act off resistance, looking to short, but the reaction to Consumer Confidence report was positive and they busted through.

I didn't have anything in my playbook for what I was watching, and didn't see a good opportunity to go long, so I took another look across other instruments and noticed Gold was for some reason staying strong even with the buying in equities. Spotted a great setup there a couple candles after the news, but I just didn't act decisively to get a trade on it. Blame whatever, it's poor execution.

Unfortunately I wasn't quite prepared for what the market wanted to do today, didn't adapt quickly, and missed an opportunity as a result. Was there some doubt in there also? Maybe some fear? Probably a bit of that, too.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #4 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

It's funny, in the three months before this week I had one whipsaw, but in this week alone I had two. Posting a beans chart at bottom that is pretty comical to look at. As I mentioned before, I'm aware that stop management (trailing stops) is a potential weak spot in the way I trade, but it doesn't seem to get in the way of capturing profits in the long run. I could certainly stand to loosen those up just a bit though. My sample size isn't big enough to be completely sure. I will be adding better metrics in the spreadsheet I keep to quantify "hypothetical" gain for future data-mining.

But that trade isn't the story for today. A little loss on a decent setup is no big deal. The story is what came after, when I followed that loss with another, and then another. Both of which were rule-breakers for me, and something I haven't done in, well, months. Basically, I jumped in and out and back in to a trade that wasn't going anywhere in the first place. There's a reason I have been avoiding trading after a losing trade - it keeps the daily loss down, and avoids that stinging feeling of very quickly making a serious dent in whatever progress you have made. There is a lot of pressure on a beginning trader with a small account to protect equity. The longer you last, the more you will learn. At least, that's what has worked for me. The mental equity that you risk blowing away is even more important than the actual financial equity.

So why breaking rules now? The analogy that comes to mind is the kid learning to ride a bicycle. Dad pushes him along, dad lets go, and the kid does it. He is riding a bicycle, but he doesn't even realize it. And he's doing a damn good job of it. Then, he looks back.

He looks back and now he knows what he is doing, he thinks about what he is doing, the accomplishment, the amazement, the pressure to continue, and he tightens up. He wigs out. He falls.

I had some modest successes in trading over the past few months, and I did it by keeping my head in the zone more than I've been able to in the past. Then, as things start to go well, I start acting like that kid. I get excited, I start thinking about a billion things that actually have nothing positive to contribute to the regular daily grind of making trades, and I fall off track.

So, drawing down. To say it is frustrating is an understatement, but I don't want to get too emo here and will try to come from a reflective place... just re-reading the tone of my previous post made me think about Frustration and what place it has in trading. I'm not sure frustration itself is the problem, but one's response to it. Mistakes happen. Move on.

I've definitely been tightening up recently, and will be taking a few days off live trading to reset, loosen up, and get back to business. As promised, below is a chart of beans trade -7 ticks. Enjoy. Not posting the other chart, not much to see there.




-FM

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #5 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Back at it today after a 2 week hiatus. What did I do in that time? Well, what made me take the break in the first place wasn't just the little draw-down I was in, but that there were more than one instances within that drawdown where I violated my setup rules, and more importantly, my money management rules...

So I read a lot of the psych threads here at futures.io/bmt, reinforcing a lot of things I had already come across. What I've done is I have made an effort to re-allign myself toward rules-based performance evaluation, rather than dollars and cents. I've completely redesigned the spreadsheet I use to track my trades. I've separated my rules-set into risk-management rules (very important and rigid) and setup rules (also important, but more nuanced).

Capturing a lot more data as well around hypothetical stop results. And I've started using the active trader tool to place my bracket orders, which saves some headache around setting up orders. I've also decided not to use trail-stops any more initially in a trade (will manually move stop), only moving into a trail-stop when I need to leave the screen.

But also, I'm doing a bit of head-trickery, which I'm most interested to see how it works for me. I've made an effort to move dollars and cents out of the main page of my tracking spreadsheet. I'm focusing on initial Risk (R) and maximum per-trade and per-day risk, and max drawdown. No more arbitrary weekly / monthly performance evaluations which create unnecessary pressure to perform at the beginning and end of those periods. Looking at performance metrics in terms of R, rather than dollars. Also, I've added a formula-based red-light / green-light cell that will be my "OK TO TRADE" status. If the cell is green, then I haven't hit my draw-down limits and I've been following my rules well enough. If it's red, it's time to take a break for a pre-defined number of days because I've violated one of my core money-management rules. And lastly, my intention is to hide all rows other than the current trade I am placing, to keep the focus on the current trade. It's hard to trick the brain to not think about the money ... and I have no illusion that it is actually possible. My real hope is that by structuring things this way, I will consciously be reminded to focus on the plan and not the result.

I got the impulse I was waiting for on 6E. Trade worked out well. Very lucky to walk up to the first tee after a bit of a break and split the fairway. +69 ticks (34.5 pips).


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #6 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

I was stalking this ZN trade pre-market and it ended up materializing with a low risk entry long just after the open. I measure trend over the last 5 - 7 days, and only look further back than that in case there are major levels to be aware of. So technically this was a counter-trend trade for me as the prevailing trend over the last week in ZN was bearish. But this trade was sort of in the right arm-pit of what could still develop into an inverse head and shoulders short term bottom (in a pullback within a larger up trend). Alas, it was not meant to be today as looks like the movers and shakers decided to take Friday off. I still made a small profit on the trade as it gave me some green before petering out. +3 ticks.

Only 2 trades this week. I was watching closely and my reads were pretty good on Wed / Thurs, but just didn't get any setups to draw me in. Market seemed to be running off pretty quick without doing me the decency of some low risk entries. By the time the picture would clear up, things felt too "chasey". Even though they often did keep running. I might throw up some examples of this kind of scenario because it happens pretty often to me and I'm trying to come up with ways to start capitalizing on it instead of letting them pass by. It's kind of like the "identify this is a likely trend day and just hop on board" sort of thing. Not so good at that.

But the two trades I did take, I followed the plan. That makes a streak of 2.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #7 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

I was not in rhythm today. Got to the desk late and rushed through the plan. I took 2 trades which I would grade at a "B" and a "C-", and didn't manage well. But I kept risk low and followed my money management rules, which kept me out of trouble.

My core risk management rule currently is max daily loss of 1.25R, and max loss per trade obviously at 1R. First trade only risked .25R, and ended up costing exactly that (-5 ticks in ZS). Second trade risked another .44 R and ended up costing .36R (-9 ticks in CL).

ZS was in an uptrend and presented a break long that didn't have much room to run, but I was able to get a low risk entry, so I took it. Since I didn't have a ton of confidence in it, I waited for the break to pop, to see if there would be a little pause/pullback where I could jump on a continuation. That's exactly what happened but there was no real followthrough at that time and I took a small loss. M15 below. -5 ticks




CL was the worse trade of the two. It really wasn't a valid setup. I didn't have much business being short against the trend at this spot. Had I been paying attention, I would be waiting for 33.3 to break and only then allow a short. As it was, I shorted right into support. I moved my stop in a bit as I got a little bit of green on the trade, but in the end it didn't matter either way. Below is a M3 chart, since it's hard to see what got me in on a M15 (another big clue that this was a non-setup). -9 ticks.




Although these weren't great setups, especially the second trade, risk management rules were maintained, so the streak goes on. The general goal right now is to get a streak of 100 straight trades where all risk management rules were followed, and at least 75%-ish (90% would be better) of the trades were "A" or "B" trades.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #8 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Was at the screen from the quiet hour of 5:20am here (pacific) but after an hour of watching and planning, other more important duties called me away just as the market opened. I missed some action, and I'd like to think I might have taken advantage of some of that, but alas I will never know.

I had some time to focus eventually, but it was late in the game, almost noon Eastern. A few days ago I told myself I'd start considering more trades in this 11 to Noon Eastern window, just because it is a time I happen to have mostly available. Not the best time generally, I know, but I am just probing it to see if there is anything to be had there.

Today's trade in 6E, ignoring the time of day, was a decent setup that just didn't pan out. Downtrend. Pullback into resistance. Sellers stepping in and showing some strength. A break-down with a a low risk entry. Definitely some imperfections but I'll give it a "B". I made a conscious effort to just let this one pan out, since it was moving so glacially slow. Could I have managed it better? Jumped out quicker? I'm tracking a few alternate trailing-stop methods that would have made this a smaller loss. But it was small to begin with. Only risked .45 R.

I'm gathering a lot more data than I ever have before so after I've got a 100 trades to look at, maybe I can make some intelligent decisions and start to refine my filtration on entries, and make better decisions about when to cut a trade short.

On to fight another day. I'm out for the next day or two. I have too much other stuff going on so won't be taking any trades.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #9 (permalink)
 Bermudan Option 
Chicago, Illinois
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradingview
Broker: ThinkOrSwim
Trading: Forex, Stock & Options
 
Bermudan Option's Avatar
 
Posts: 556 since May 2011
Thanks: 695 given, 344 received

Subscribed

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #10 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received


Losing trade today for -0.6R in CL. I've seen this momentum followthrough breakout trade work in CL before. I think it had a reasonable chance of working given the 4:1 R/R, but I'm giving this entry a C rating, because it was a chasing trade and not my standard setup. I was forcing it. Really I think this was a FOMO trade as I was pushing to get into a trade early instead of waiting for the right moment. I was right about CL going higher (it's marching up to my target now after the 3rd break attempt), it just wasn't going to make the actual move until after 10:30 Eastern

One might think, upon reading the past few days of posts, that I am OK with what is barely mediocre performance.

That isn't the case.

Obviously I have no intention of playing to break even, which is where I am at now. Nor am I playing for second place, like Mr. Sergio Garcia did yesterday. I am playing to win. But the craft of trading throws a number of wrenches in the usual "give it your all" kind of approach to winning.

In the effort to learn to trade, it becomes necessary to balance intensity with a lightness of being. Because this is, as many have said, a marathon. And although one must have high expectations in the long run, and stay motivated to excel, it is equally important to not be deterred by losses along the way, and to balance an intensity to win profits with a conscienciousness to manage risk.

That means accepting that today won't be the day I suddenly trade like a professional. But today and every day I trade with the intention of doing so. Follow the plan, one trade at a time.

Big picture focus this week: Removing conflict. Enhancing focus. Maximizing intensity. ACTING FREELY and without hangups.

I made a significant change to my approach this week. Not to my method. I've simply come to realize that in order to do this well I need to remove all conflicting demands so that I can swing freely during the hours I am trading. As such, all trading activity for me is being moved to times where there is zero overlap with family or work. Anything else was just asking for self-sabotage. How could I expect to excel at trading when in the back of my head the time I put into it was drawing away from my ability to excel at my occupation, and at home.

So I have moved my focus to the pre-open. There is enough action from 8:30E to 9:30E in ZN / CL / 6E / ES. The family is asleep. The office is asleep. That is my time. No conflict. No blame or excuse for missing out on this or that trade. I'm either there, making the right decisions, or I'm not.

It feels like a positive step. I didn't have an overly negative reaction to the full stop-out today. But I also need to pay attention - the clearly defined and smaller window to take trades is going to motivate me even more to take sub-par setups like today! My primary objective: Take more "A" entries! Take less "B" and lower entries!


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #11 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

I should really be upset today. Should I? I don't know why, but I feel oddly good about today. Definitely, absolutely, without a doubt, NOT the kind of results that I want to see. But I guess I gained enough insight from the mistakes and am strangely accepting and clear about the takeaways.

Maybe a sport psychologist, or a sith lord, would say: get angry, man! Feed on the anger! Stop sucking! I don't know, maybe it works for some people.

SO, here's what happened. I got to the computer ready to rock and with only one thing on my mind. Only take setups where price has traded into a S/R level. That's the most basic absolute fundamental thing I need to do. And I did that. Check.

My first entry/stop (pictured in the M3 chart below) in CL wasn't a great entry, but it was the right idea. I just manufactured the entry point in my head and got in too early. Price hadn't finished rolling over, and I got a little stop out for a small loss of -.32 R. I took a little punch lower within a pull back that still hadn't finished, and paid for that. But I didn't stop looking for a true "A" setup, and I got it just a few minutes later. That's another thing I did well today. After taking a small loss I remained open to another better setup. I went ahead and entered on the real break lower, only to make an idiotic move to BE and let myself get taken out of a real winner.

Takeaway? Clearly I've given myself a death by a thousand tiny stops. Too eager to limit losses. This is a risk-aversion type mistake. Without consideration, this might be a "throw in the towel I'm never going to figure this out" moment. But it isn't. I have the data that shows exactly what would have worked here. I'm testing out several alternate stop-management ideas in my log sheet, and they are starting to show valuable insights.



As time progressed closer to the market open, I was half-heartedly flipping through the charts. I had a bit of ammo left after only losing .4R on the first two trades. But just before 9:30E, I saw what I would call an absolute textbook setup sequence develop on ZN. I decided that I wouldn't take it because I had no way to effectively auto-manage my trade, and I needed to go tend to the regular morning business of being a normal person.

For sake of demonstration, below is that textbook setup that I didn't take. I even noted it all in my log and was about to put the order in, and then decided against it. Do I regret that? Actually, no. I said I wouldn't initiate trades when I had other things to do. But what I liked about today was I SAW what was there to be had. And I can easily conceive of (when I move back to ninjatrader) implementing one of my auto-trade-management strategies that would let me take these trades for wins, even if I have to walk away from the machine. But I need more trading data to officially make that call.

ZN M3 chart. Heading into the open ZN trades up into previously identified resistance and makes a low and a lower high. Sell the break to a lower low with a stop over the pattern.



And that's all she wrote. My target would have been far too conservative. This is another thing I am tracking, a la the "benchmark" value from @BigMike 's log.



That's it. Next trades, continue to focus on quality entries, and move stops less aggressively at the onset of the trade, in light of variables such as current trade MFE and typical swing size of the instrument. I wasn't going to look at performance metrics until 20 trades recorded with all new data capturing. I did take a peak today, though. Still essentially Break-Even results over the last 8 trades, with the last 6 being losers. Risk aversion does have that advantage . . . you can bleed for quite a long time and not die. But with confidence now that I am starting to SEE things again, now I need to give the trades a chance.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #12 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
jackbravo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,339 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 4,346 given, 2,389 received

Hey man - I like the way you analyze yourself. In to follow.
Going through similar difficulties myself.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to jackbravo for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #13 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Thank you to the folks who mentioned they are following along here, either posting or just thanking a post or two. Since I've kept a trading journal privately in one shape or another for quite a while, I definitely doubted whether this public journal would be of any value to me. I am now starting to see that I think it might be helpful. I think it comes down to something like, "if you can't explain what you are doing to someone else, then you probably don't really know entirely what you are doing." It is definitely motivating to keep things moving in a productive forward path, knowing that folks are out there reading.

No trades yesterday. Today was somewhat a repeat of Monday. Old lessons and new lessons. Another day of lessons.

First off, I still haven't taken my risk aversion / fear of loss medicine. It was a little better today - I at least had a clear rationale of why I moved in my stop. But that decision still cost me a bit of money. The data seems to be telling me that I should give all trades at least 20 minutes or so to let them work before reducing risk or jumping out. This morning's trade in CL moved a bit in favor, then moved a bit against, and then moved back to 0, at which point I moved my stop under the assumption that if the trade wasn't going to work from there, it was likely just a bad setup. On top of all this, my confidence in the entry was vanishing (actually, rightly so, more on that later), but even then it turned out to be unwise to jump out of the trade when I did.

Second, and almost as important, was that this entry wasn't as good as I wanted it to be going into the trade. In hindsight, I was forcing an entry in the middle of a congestion zone. I saw this going into the trade, but rationalized my way around it by picking a little mini 1-2-3 to trade off of. The lesson there is a reminder that S/R isn't just lines on a chart. And not all S/R is the same. The price action on each side of the line, the amount of distance between that line and the next, tells a story about people making decisions, what stakes they hold, and what will motivate them to act as price moves through those areas.

All of my best trades have a clear story behind them. The basic lower-low, lower-high, higher-low, higher-high Long setup is just a story reduced to a pattern "sellers are exhausted, buying to cover at a price that some buyers have previously identified as value, buyers have stepped in and re-asserted their view that this is a value, a last gasp of sellers come in late to the party to push price down again only to be met by more buyers, and then the buyers confirm with price breaking higher that they now hold the baton."

But notice I said ALMOST as important, above. That's because, with an intelligent exit-management strategy, founded in real data about what works and what saves/makes money in the long run, you can get bailed out of mediocre trades like this as often as not. It's not like this was the worst possible entry ever - there was definitely some resistance there and with a bit of luck the short may have even worked.

CL M15 below, illustating consolidation areas worth stearing clear of.



Detail on the CL M3 below:



I absolutely need to work on taking clear cut entries and not force myself in, which is what I did today. When I give my entry a grade going in, I find myself down-grading it in hindsight. Have to close that gap.

All of this is related. Confidence in the plan is first. Next, confidence that the trade you initate IS alligned with the plan. Having that confidence will make it easier for you to let the trade work itself out . . . which helps resolve the stopping-yourself-out fear of loss problem. One leads to the other, and any weakness upstream makes the downstream next to impossible.

Finally, props to any one who got this little long on the 6E. Nice clean one. I was waiting for this but it ended up happening too late and too fast for me. Keeping my eyes open for the next one of these.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #14 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Since Friday I've gone into each day with a very simple directive. Take only "A" entries. Took me until today to catch any, probably due to being very selective, but I finally did. Took two trades today, both of them entries that I still consider good.

You have to learn to follow the rules before you can break the rules... And you have to learn what the rules are before you can follow them.

If I'm finding the right spots and the right direction to take entries, then the primary thing that will keep me down is a crappy exit strategy. Despite getting sorely shaken out of a great trade again today, there is a silver lining. The rules are becoming clearer, so that I might follow them.

Do I have confidence in my strategy? Can my entries lead to profitable trades? So far I have only 11 trades recorded since I started more robust data collection. Obviously way too few to make any definitive statements, but I've got to work with what I have. There are 4 trades, including the 2 from today, that I called "A" entries. Although I was only able to hit my target on 1 of those 4 trades, my "idealized" result (MFE if I had a wide stop) is a target hit on 3 out of 4 of those trades. For the 7 non-"A" entries, idealized result only hit the target in one of those trades.

Translation: Focus on "A" entries, and continue to diligently track the quality of those setups as objectively as possible without revising the grade after the trade finished. If continuing to see good idealized results, and crappy actual results, then . . . fix your exits and good things should start to happen.

Have confidence in the "A" setups to let them have wider stops. A quick re-entry strategy after shakeouts might help also, but that takes agility and practice. It's pretty obvious what I'm doing wrong with stop placement. I'm mixing time frames. I'm using a 15 minute to pick my spots and form the basis for my "thesis". But for stops I'm often using inflection points on the lower time frame that are irrelevant to the higher structure that actually underpins the thesis. The lower time frame is useful to help pick out the detail and get entries that I might otherwise miss, but I need to be realistic about how price has been swinging and allow for that motion. I used to do a better job at this when I was only trading off the 15 minute chart, with no "trigger" chart. I like having the lower time frame though - I think it helps my decision process overall - I just need to adapt.

Not expecting this to be a light-switch change, but my main objective over the next 5 to 10 trades is simply to increase the % of "A" entries dramatically, and get further data to help me confidently develop a sane exit strategy that doesn't sabotage my winning trades.

First trade was counter-trend in 6A. Price had impulsed down off of a high and retraced up to the previous support. The trend was up, but this had room to fall and so I took the short. Got stopped out really fast but there was nothing there anyways. Canada had their rate announcement right there and it pushed the other way.



And here's the doozy. Just made an absolute perfect call on 6E for a long off this support zone I pulled off a 4 hour chart. Was waiting on this to develop for a bit, and then got a nice entry on the first attempt to break higher. Let myself get shaken out and then missed the second break higher for the real move.



Second mouse gets the cheese today.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #15 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
jackbravo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,339 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 4,346 given, 2,389 received

I'm curious because I'm struggling with this, but what are your rules to take profits?

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #16 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received


jackbravo View Post
I'm curious because I'm struggling with this, but what are your rules to take profits?

Thanks for asking, as it will force me to write it out.

I always decide on a target before I enter a trade. I usually eyeball a measured move or use the next s/r or round-number level where I would expect the market to pause or maybe pull back / reverse. I'm always going for minimum 1:2 risk to reward. Even with a reasonably loose stop I usually find myself closer to 1:3 risk to reward. Most of my charts should have a green line marking my predefined target. To see if my targets are helping or hurting me, I am also tracking idealized profits to see how much I leave on the table and whether a target-less method that simply trails a stop might yield more in the long run.

As for taking profits on a trade that hasn't yet hit the target, that is a lot tougher to nail down. Basically the reasons to take the money and run are the inverse of the reasons I entered the trade to begin with.

If I am entering a short because price has made a LH at resistance, and broken down to a LL. Then I want to stay in that trade until it makes a HL and breaks up to a HH, thus confirming that selling momentum has fizzled.

But it gets much more complicated than that. This is primarily due to the constantly changing "pot odds" (poker term), and a need to keep loose when there is more to gain, and tight when there is more to lose.

I haven't fleshed it out in enough detail to get much more specific with my exit rules. I intend to move my stops in to take profit if my primary thesis is voided, however I also intend to avoid significant inverse risk as the trade moves toward the target. So if a trade starts out risking 20 ticks to make 60 ticks, then when I have an MFE of 50, I don't want to have my risk at BE or worse. I want that stop to pull in a bit tighter as the trade moves closer to the target. This may end up be a max-allowable-retracement rule where I will bail out if price retraces more than 50% or so from the latest swing that hit the MFE.

Obviously, I'm still working this out so any suggestions are more than welcome.

Below is a picture with some further thoughts. This is a setup I saw develop in CL this morning while getting ready for work. I did not take this trade, but I did identify the levels before it played out in real time.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #17 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

No actual trading for me lately, just a lot of thinking and some experimenting.

I was triggered by @GruttePier from his discussion about Price Risk vs Information Risk here:



and here:



which led me over to this thread as well as viewing the FT71 webinar which brings this up as well as various other topics:



It has me re-thinking the approach I've taken recently, taking trades on confirmation. I don't necessarily think it is a flat-out bad approach, but at this moment it is an aspect of my trading that is up for reconsideration. I've certainly seen people successfully trade break-out confirmation-style "price risk" entries, and perhaps it suits a certain personality, works on certain markets / timeframes better than others, gives its proponents a more comfortable win/loss ratio (better psychologically) in exchange for lower expectancy, or simply requires a certain nuanced approach that takes a while to get.

The fact is, I've gotten to a point where at least 2 things are sticking out at me that I need to fix. 1. I'm shaking myself out of trades because I'm trying to limit risk and end up with stops that are not at a point where my initial idea is proven wrong. 2. I'm missing some trades where the market comes to exactly the level I was looking at, turns in exactly the way I thought was likely, and yet I am sitting there waiting for the market to stand on one foot, tap its nose, and recite the alphabet backwards so that I can have my confirmation and get into a trade. Then if I do get in, the risk is higher (if I place my stop correctly) or I stand to get shaken out if I don't give it enough room.

The only way my favoring Confirmation makes sense is if the confirmation I get from taking all that Price Risk is tipping my win/loss ratio to where the additional price risk is not detrimental. Conversely, if I start taking Information risk and get a better price on my trades, the stop-placement issue is much easier to resolve, and the concern then would be whether my market-reads are enough information to maintain an edge without that extra Information baked into the trade entry point.

So, in the spirit of "structured learning", I'm not going to just jump in and change everything all at once. For now, I'm going to continue looking for the same confirmation trades, but I'm going to make sure that the stop is always in a place where the trade no longer makes sense. This may make it a lot harder to find trades within my R/R profile, and so be it.

And while I'm waiting for the market to touch its toes and roll a cigarette one-handed, I'll be noting some different trades on paper just to get a feel for how I might transition from Reactionary into a more Anticipatory mode of trading. Funny thing is, when I first started trading futures, this is how I traded, entering with limits on perceived inflection points before they panned out. It didn't work for me back then, but I've had a lot of screen time since then to study price action.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #18 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
jackbravo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,339 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 4,346 given, 2,389 received

I sometimes struggle with waiting for confirmation (like at this moment!). Other times though I found I've swung to the other side of the spectrum, which is anticipation trading. If you trade on the first sign on a signal, I find many times, it's way too early, though does represent the least risk. I don't know ....I feel like it's one of those things that need to to be balanced by couching in the trade in the longer-time frame.

Just a thought...have you considered experimenting with putting in a second order where you would put in a stop, i.e. average down? That's what I've been toying with lately.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #19 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received


jackbravo View Post
I sometimes struggle with waiting for confirmation (like at this moment!). Other times though I found I've swung to the other side of the spectrum, which is anticipation trading. If you trade on the first sign on a signal, I find many times, it's way too early, though does represent the least risk. I don't know ....I feel like it's one of those things that need to to be balanced by couching in the trade in the longer-time frame.

Just a thought...have you considered experimenting with putting in a second order where you would put in a stop, i.e. average down? That's what I've been toying with lately.

I think the average-down approach may work, especially fo highly skilled traders, if you go into the trade with the idea of building a position into a zone where you anticipate a turn. At my skill level it would be dangerously close to just adding to losers, so I haven't thought to go down that road. If getting in too early is the problem, I'd rather fix that by just waiting and putting my 1 entry at a more favorable spot. Also, I think I should be able to make 1 lot trades work, but I do understand that there are some benefits that I am missing by not scaling.

There's a good discussion around this topic again over at @GruttePier 's journal pages 16 - 17, with input from @Inletcap and @Tap In and @choke35



It starts there with Tap In giving what I would call very logical advice about being able to make 1-contract trades work, and assessing edge by seeing 1R MFE more than 50% of the time.


Tap In View Post
When trading multiple contracts, the trader should be able to isolate and evaluate the results of each contract as if it were its own trade. If each contract is not contributing positive results to the bottom line, what is the point if even putting it on?

A bit later, after some great trade-stat-analysis and back and forth, and some good points from choke35 about looking at risk in comparison with market noise, Inletcap comes in with what I can only describe as an attempt at "freeing the prisoners from Plato's cave"


Inletcap View Post
How can one quantify their context and trading bias into ticks or points and reduce the "risk" of the trade accordingly- you cant! By saying "I am wrong on this trade because the market moved 3 pts" is Bullshit. By accepting that being wrong by 3 pts or 5pts or much worse even fewer points is what will hold you back. Measuring risk this way is wrong. That's the stuff book authors who can't trade a lick and broker dealers who get paid per transaction want you to believe because it appeals to your psychological "safety" and their pocket.

The market will tell you when you are wrong. The internals will disagree and price action will follow and you will know- selecting an arbitrary point value or swing hi/low is not the key to managing risk.

One last thing- your focus should be on making returns and managing risk-not vice versa. It's all in the state of mind.. -Walter D. Wintle

I know there is something interesting going on in here because it literally breaks my head trying to understand the implications of it. If any one as ever looked at their trading results and thought, "what if I just did the exact opposite of what I'm doing now... would that work?" Well, I don't think it would in most cases, but in some sense that may be the first thought toward real progress. Flip it on its head. (not unlike entering at where you would have put your stop!) Now, I didn't understand exactly what was going on here, but then I read GruttePier's de-construction of it, which was pretty on point I feel, and that helped me get a bit closer to it:


GruttePier View Post
you are focussed on maximizing profit first and managing risk second. Because your focus is on profit (and not on risk), all your trading decisions are intended on maximizing the potential profit, and not on reducing risk. This explains why you let profit runs, see pullback as an opportunity to increase size, can resist the psychologal effect of pullbacks, remain in the (losing) trade as long as you believe in your bias, etc. Versus the risk averse, struggling but learning trader (me) who secures profits, gets anxious during pullbacks, has fixed stops of x% of account size and gets scared about reversing internals.

Anyhow, that's where the head is at right now. I don't think I'll be live-trading this week and I'll be using the pre-holiday-week to play with some ideas, do some coin-flip trading on sim, and generally mess around with my head-space a bit. Happy trading.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #20 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
jackbravo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,339 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 4,346 given, 2,389 received

Thanks for that post!
Very informative.

Like you mentioned, I've tried to average down on a pull-back, and have ended in disastrous results, as my initial interpretation was wrong. However, other times, many times in fact, I would have been smart to average down, as I had the right interpretation of price action/market conditions. So do does a beginning trader differentiate from those two circumstances??

Another component of risk aversion is avoiding profit loss. How many times have you let a trade go in order to maximize profits, just for the trade to come back to entry point and go back the other way? For me....that has not been an uncommon occurrence.

So it seems to me having multiple contracts on at the same time allows one to deal with the ability to secure profits, as well as reduce that component of risk aversion.

I mean, how often have you put on a trade and be completely, instantly wrong? I would guess not that many times. So let's you're at least partially right most of the time, very right some of the time, and very wrong some of the time. Wouldn't it work to be able to trade multiple contracts, and at least secure some profits most of the time?

My apologies in using your journal to think aloud.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #21 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received


jackbravo View Post
Thanks for that post!
Very informative.

Like you mentioned, I've tried to average down on a pull-back, and have ended in disastrous results, as my initial interpretation was wrong. However, other times, many times in fact, I would have been smart to average down, as I had the right interpretation of price action/market conditions. So do does a beginning trader differentiate from those two circumstances??

Another component of risk aversion is avoiding profit loss. How many times have you let a trade go in order to maximize profits, just for the trade to come back to entry point and go back the other way? For me....that has not been an uncommon occurrence.

So it seems to me having multiple contracts on at the same time allows one to deal with the ability to secure profits, as well as reduce that component of risk aversion.

I mean, how often have you put on a trade and be completely, instantly wrong? I would guess not that many times. So let's you're at least partially right most of the time, very right some of the time, and very wrong some of the time. Wouldn't it work to be able to trade multiple contracts, and at least secure some profits most of the time?

My apologies in using your journal to think aloud.

No apologies necessary! This is a great topic.

Now, I know you said partially right MOST of the time, and everything else SOME of the time, but let's go ahead and split it evenly just for the sake of argument.

OK, so let's say we have an equal probability of being really right, partially right, or really wrong.

Let's say Really Right means the market hits a 2R gain before hitting a 1R stop.
Let's say Partially Right means the market hits 1R gain before hitting a 1R stop.
Let's say Really Wrong means the market hits 1R stop before any gain.

Let's also say we aren't touching our stops ever.

A 1-lot trader in this instance would be wise to take profits at 1R every time. 2 out of 3 trades he or she is going to take profits. 1/3 of trades will leave 1R profit on the table, but overall it is a profitable strategy so who cares? Over 9 trades, he's getting +6R -3R for a total of +3R. Upping to 2 lots all-in all-out would be 6R in profit over 9 trades.

If the 1-lot trader decided to stick to the 2-R target, he'd be treading water overall and would lose money over time to commisions. 2/3 trades would hit the 1R stop, and 1/3 trades would hit the 2R target, cancelling each other out.

Now let's try the 2-lot all-in and scale-out trader.

This trader takes one lot off at 1R every time. Half the time he hits 1R, his other lot hits the 2R target. But the other half of the time, it doesn't, and it goes all the way back to his stop loss, cancelling each other out. On top of that, when he's really wrong, he loses 2R each time.

Breaking this down: out of 9 trades, he'd have 3 that lost outright for -6R. He'd have 3 that hit the 1R for 1 lot, but then went back to -1R for the other lot. Then he'd have 3 that hit 1R + 2R each, for +9R. So in the end he's at +3R, the same place the 1-lot trader was who just went for 1R per trade. And he's paying more commissions and has a lower w/l ratio. You might argue that in cases where the market goes to 1R and then turns back, they wouldn't let the 2nd lot go all the way to their original stop loss. OK, fair enough, so they flatten when it becomes clear that the trade isn't going to hit that 2nd target. But is this loss-averting tactic going to improve things that much? Enough to avoid the -3R and also not shake him out of some of the trades that hit both targets? Doubtful. Probably better off to use the extra size to just be a 2-lot all-in all-out trader going for 1R.

Now, how to break this down for the 2-lot scaling-in / all out, averaging-down trader? It becomes pretty complicated. To simplify, I'm going to have this trader only go for 1R. It works out better for him that way anyways.

Let's say for half of each of 2 positive scenarios, price moves .5R down before going up to its happy place. So now we have 5 scenarios.

1) 16.5% : Really Right, minimal Adverse Excursion.
2) 16.5% : Really Right, > .5R Adverse Excursion.
3) 16.5% : Partially Right, minimal Adverse Excursion.
4) 16.5% : Partially Right, > .5R Adverse Excursion.
5) 33% : Really Wrong.

For scenario 1, trader can't add because there is no adverse excursion to average into. +1R on 1 lot.
Scenario 2, trader adds at -.5R and comes away with +1.5R + 1R = 2.5R
Scenario 3, trader can't add and he takes the +1R.
Scenario 4, trader adds at -.5R, comes out with +1.5R + 1R = 2.5R
Scenario 5, trader adds at -.5R and ends up down -1.5R on each of these trades.

So over 6 trades we would be at +1R +2.5R +1R +2.5R -1.5R*2 = 4R, which means over 9 trades this trader would be at +6R.

So, yes. Given this very arbitrary set of assumptions, the average-down trader has slightly lower commision than the all-in all-out 2-lot trader, and identical PnL otherwise. He isn't always in 2 lots, but still manages to eek out 6R over 9 trades. That said, this is all completely made up hypothetical probabilities and I'd bet that the 2nd lot picked up at -.5R actually doesn't have as good a chance at that late entry of coming all the way back the +1.5R to get to the original 1R target. It probably doesn't happen even 40% of the time, if done randomly.

Things obviously get infinitely more complicated in real world situation where these probabilities don't play out so simply. And without that basic edge driving profits, there is no basis for profitable trading at all. It just can't be random, and it seems to me that playing with averaging doesn't help matters enough on its own. Adding to and subtracting from trades has to be PART of the edge. In other words, each buy or sell must be rooted in a decision making process that wins profits over a large sample of trades. The rationale can't simply be about playing a numbers game, getting a better cost basis or limiting risk

My gut tells me all this business of multi-lot scaling draws beginning traders' attention away from what they should be focusing on - Buy Low, Sell High.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #22 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
jackbravo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,339 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 4,346 given, 2,389 received


FlyingMonkey View Post
No apologies necessary! This is a great topic.

Now, I know you said partially right MOST of the time, and everything else SOME of the time, but let's go ahead and split it evenly just for the sake of argument.

OK, so let's say we have an equal probability of being really right, partially right, or really wrong.

Let's say Really Right means the market hits a 2R gain before hitting a 1R stop.
Let's say Partially Right means the market hits 1R gain before hitting a 1R stop.
Let's say Really Wrong means the market hits 1R stop before any gain.

Let's also say we aren't touching our stops ever.

A 1-lot trader in this instance would be wise to take profits at 1R every time. 2 out of 3 trades he or she is going to take profits. 1/3 of trades will leave 1R profit on the table, but overall it is a profitable strategy so who cares? Over 9 trades, he's getting +6R -3R for a total of +3R. Upping to 2 lots all-in all-out would be 6R in profit over 9 trades.

If the 1-lot trader decided to stick to the 2-R target, he'd be treading water overall and would lose money over time to commisions. 2/3 trades would hit the 1R stop, and 1/3 trades would hit the 2R target, cancelling each other out.

Now let's try the 2-lot all-in and scale-out trader.

This trader takes one lot off at 1R every time. Half the time he hits 1R, his other lot hits the 2R target. But the other half of the time, it doesn't, and it goes all the way back to his stop loss, cancelling each other out. On top of that, when he's really wrong, he loses 2R each time.

Breaking this down: out of 9 trades, he'd have 3 that lost outright for -6R. He'd have 3 that hit the 1R for 1 lot, but then went back to -1R for the other lot. Then he'd have 3 that hit 1R + 2R each, for +9R. So in the end he's at +3R, the same place the 1-lot trader was who just went for 1R per trade. And he's paying more commissions and has a lower w/l ratio. You might argue that in cases where the market goes to 1R and then turns back, they wouldn't let the 2nd lot go all the way to their original stop loss. OK, fair enough, so they flatten when it becomes clear that the trade isn't going to hit that 2nd target. But is this loss-averting tactic going to improve things that much? Enough to avoid the -3R and also not shake him out of some of the trades that hit both targets? Doubtful. Probably better off to use the extra size to just be a 2-lot all-in all-out trader going for 1R.

I'm going to take some time to digest the 2nd part of your example.

Regarding the 2 lot entry. Once one lot hits 1R, you automatically move stop to entry price. At least, that's what I would have in mind. There's no reason to risk any negative exercusion against your entry point by that time. Also , the idea of using two lots is to give you the flexibility to get some profit when you're kind of right.

So:
Very wrong A: 3 trades x 2 lots x -1R = -6R
Kind of right B: 3 trades x 1 lot x 1R = 3R
------------------ 3 trades x 1 lot x 0R = 0R
Very right C: 3 trades x 1 lot x 1R = 3R
------------------- 3 trades x 1 lot x 2R = 6R

Total: 6R

However, a 1 lot trader always taking a 1R profit would still profit 1R, which like you said, is still a positive edge.

-----------------------------------------------

But let's say, you're using your first lot to get a bit of profit, even a tiny bit, let's say 0.5R (something the 1 lot trader can't do).

So:
Very wrong A: 3 trades x 2 lots x -1R = -6R
Kind of right B: 3 trades x 1 lot x 0.5R = 1.5R
-------------------3 trades x 1 lot x 0R = 0R
Very right C: 3 trades x 1 lot x 0.5R = 1.5R
-------------------3 trades x 1 lot x 2R = 6R

Total: 3R

So you can still salvage positive expectancy in this situation. In fact, any profit over commissions using the 1st lot of two will give you a positive expectancy. However, if your 0.5R is too close to entry point, then there's a chance you never allow your 2nd lot to get to 2R - so I guess that's the negative of that situation. You'd have to use something like an ATR or some other way to judge noise/retracement patterns.



EDIT:

Actually, as I was thinking about it, the reason I was really interested in the double contract scenario is begin I would like to get away from thinking about risk/reward. I've noticed that many successful traders like Tiger or Intelcap don't think of risk/reward, but think in terms of trying to capture the bulk of a move on any given day (perhaps one can argue that a move isn't really over at the end of the day but may take two or three days). In that scenario, using a one lot, you are either forced to scalp, or forced to hope that you can tell when the move is over. Otherwise, if you're wrong, you either lose money being wrong, or you lose money when the move is over and retraces.

However, with 2 contracts, you now have to ability to take some profits...i.e. scalp, and use the second contract to allow the move to continue as far as you think it will go. So even if you misinterpret the end of the move and it retraces back to your entry point, you've still made some profits from your first contract. If you're able to interpret the end of the move correctly, well, now you've move a much larger multiple of R.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to jackbravo for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #23 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received


jackbravo View Post
Actually, as I was thinking about it, the reason I was really interested in the double contract scenario is begin I would like to get away from thinking about risk/reward. I've noticed that many successful traders like Tiger or Intelcap don't think of risk/reward, but think in terms of trying to capture the bulk of a move on any given day (perhaps one can argue that a move isn't really over at the end of the day but may take two or three days). In that scenario, using a one lot, you are either forced to scalp, or forced to hope that you can tell when the move is over. Otherwise, if you're wrong, you either lose money being wrong, or you lose money when the move is over and retraces.

However, with 2 contracts, you now have to ability to take some profits...i.e. scalp, and use the second contract to allow the move to continue as far as you think it will go. So even if you misinterpret the end of the move and it retraces back to your entry point, you've still made some profits from your first contract. If you're able to interpret the end of the move correctly, well, now you've move a much larger multiple of R.

Yep, I get where you are coming from. When trading one lots there is no concept of a "runner". You either hold or you don't. Maybe you jump in and out. But still, for me the question that we need to answer: Does it make sense for a trader still on the road to consistent profits to trade 2 or more contracts, when he or she hasn't yet established that he can be profitable with 1 contract?

Does this depend on style or method? Individual trader personality? Wouldn't it make sense for a beginning trader to take as his first step being able to consistently capture small-to-medium moves on 1-lot trades, and only after showing a positive expectancy over a hundred or so 1-lot trades, start to add another contract as a runner to capture the big moves?

This way, the additional lot is purely an added value to an already profitable method.

Perhaps one of the reasons I personally have struggled is that I have been using one contract to try to hit larger moves, when actually I would be better served at this stage by going for smaller targets with that one lot.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #24 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
jackbravo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,339 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 4,346 given, 2,389 received

That is definitely the right question to ask, and I continously ask myself that same thing. It doesn't make any sense to trade 2 contracts when you can't trade one with any consistent success.

But let me put this to you....what if that entire concept is completely wrong? What if the game is rigged so that you've got a very high likelihood of failure trading only one contract (backfills, stop hunting, high commissions, etc.)? So maybe the reason becoming consistent is so tough is because using only one contract, you're battling such huge odds that it's nearly impossible to be successful....i.e. you have to develop perfect market interpretation.

Of course, trading multiple contracts requires much higher capitalization. But my question is, what if that basic supposition of needing to be successful with one contract first is actually the exact opposite of what we should be doing/learning? Maybe we should really be learning the trading process with multiple contracts right off the bat......

I don't know. Just playing devil's advocate. Personally, I find it very difficult to trade multiple contracts. I think, though, that's because all the things I've read, and all the time I learned to trade, it was with one contract. Now it requires a paradigm shift to adopt a multiple contract perspective.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to jackbravo for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #25 (permalink)
 GruttePier 
Legendary Market Wizard
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader 8
Broker: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Trading: CL, ES
 
GruttePier's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,777 since Dec 2013
Thanks: 4,516 given, 8,672 received

I believe trading multiple contracts definitly increases your profitability and reduces overall risk.
But trading multiple contracts is not the solution if one is not profitable with 1 contract yet.

The question (atleast to me at this stage of my trading) is what strategy to use regarding multiple contracts:
- All-in and all-out, or
- All-in and fade out, or
- fade in and fade out, or
- etc..
I'm experimenting with this myself and have not found what fits me best yet.
It also depends on the type of market, for example range days or trend days.

Regarding the fixed profit targets, I suggest to review your trades and see what the profit would have been if you traded multiple contracts and various profit targets (1R, 2R, ...). This will give you insight/stats and let you choose the appropriate profit targets for you. I did this and lost my faith in fixed profit targets.
Knowing that price is moving between price levels as pivot points, yesterday/weekly/monthly HLOC, VWAP, etc. you can benefit from this by taking your entries and exits on these levels instead of fixed levels based on risk. Just try it out for a month orso, review your stats, adjust your trading rules accordingly, trade it for a month again, etcetera.

My 2 cents

Nice journal, keep experimenting and learning!

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to GruttePier for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #26 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

04
==
Created Monday 04 April 2016

So a couple weeks ago I did 50 coinflip trades, ala FT71. I ran the exercise in CL over the course of two mornings. I used a 5 tick target and 5 tick stop.

It was pretty interesting. I think that running through that many random trades in rapid succession helps one get more in tune with a probabilistic mindset. I think the way that randomness can disguise itself as a pattern is extremely important for traders to undestand, particularly in the context of evaluating trading results.

After 15 random trades, I had only gotten 4 winners, 27%. It looked pretty bad for my little random strategy. After 25 trades, I had gotten 9 winners. Still not looking great. And then, for the next 20 trades I went on a 70% winning streak and climbed all the way up to 23 wins out of 45 trades, better than 50%. At the end of the 50 trades I had a 46% winner ratio.

What does this mean? It means you have to make a lot of trades to really get a valid sample. More than 20. More than 50. Often more than 100. I wanted to play with this concept some more and I found this great site to play around with and visualise massive amounts of rapid coin flips.

The Binomial Coin Experiment

The page lets you set how many coins to flip (n) in each run and also control the probability (p) of a heads or tails. Results are painted against a standard distribution so you can easily see how your sample deviates from the expectation.

What's even better is you can set it to do batches of trials. Below is a sample of 10 trials of 10 flips each. So 100 total coin flips. Of the 10 trials, in this case I only got more than 5/10 twice. I got less than 5/10 7 times. Those results are pretty uneven.




Imagine "living" this data as a trader testing out a method, taking 10 trades a week for 10 weeks. Most of the weeks would be tough - 2 wins, 8 losses. 3 wins, 7 losses. Only a couple decent weeks. You might come to the conclusion that your method was not a 50% winning method. But keep going and it gets closer to reality. Here one after 1000 flips. Still often come up a bit lopsided, but the margin for error is more acceptable.




And once you get out to 10000 flips, they start looking pretty reliable. Now, I'm not suggesting that it isn't possible to tell how a strategy performs without taking at least a thousand trades ... but it certainly would help! But there's another thing I find interesting that I garnered from playing around with this app. From a pure "feel" perspective, it's a lot easier for a treading-water strategy to randomly "feel" like a drastically negative or positive method over a 100 or 200 trades, than it is for a really winning 66% strategy, to feel like anything other than a "winning" strategy, across the same samples. Once you tilt the probability knob past 60%, it becomes exponentially harder to get really bad batches of flips. Even a very bad batch, like the one below, looks marginally decent.



Anyhow, enough of that. What's the point? The point is to say that, although I did decide to tweak my approach, I am doing it mostly for reasons of suitability ... NOT because I had determined it was a losing approach. How could I have? I was treading water / losing small money after about 50 trades or so, and had not kept very consistent metrics.

Over the past couple weeks I have been simming a more nimble approach. Still looking at the markets the same way, price structure being the primary driver for decision making--impulse, retrace, chop., etc. But taking more info risk, less price risk, which means more opportunities. The increased agility didn't suit TOS with its higher commissions, stuttery data, and weak trade reporting, so I've moved over from TOS back to NT. Because of this, I've had to open a new account and am still waiting for funds to move over.

I'll try to put up some examples to the journal this week as I put the final pieces together in the workspace and tracking sheet. I'm under no illusion that my results will be earth-shatteringly stellar, but it has felt good "trading" (I hesitate to call simming "trading") with a bit more freedom. I think it will be the right direction. Since this is a bit of a reboot, I'll also try to congeal some semblance of a rules-set and post to the journal, as a signpost, before coming off sim. Maybe those rules will be more than just "get in when it smells good" and "get out when it smells bad", or maybe they won't.

Happy trading.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #27 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Today's "trading" (sim) was pretty good. All the markets I watch looked pretty sloppy early pre-open. With Crude Inventory and FOMC minutes I was expecting participation to be a bit off. I waited through this, and just after the open I saw something worth trading in ES.

1. Wait for price to get to an interesting level structurally. Look for movements that are clean and not choppy.
2. Look for price to not blow right through the level.
3. Identify a definitely-wrong price if you were to take the trade. This should be far out enough to resist shaking out.
4. If it starts to smell good, take the trade. Put a stop at your definitely-wrong price.
5. When it starts to smell bad, get out.

One of the main things I'm still experimenting with is #5. So far in my sim-trading over the past couple weeks, I almost never let my stop get hit. I'd just jump out after a couple whiffs of danger. Most of the time this didn't do much harm, and I was able to jump back in if it set up again. However, it did result in one or two shakeouts / missed opportunities. I'll be tracking this closely to see if cutting trades short is helping or harming.

I'm also of the mentality that, trading only one contract, I'm going to take profits quickly if I have to, and jump out early if I have to, and won't beat myself up too much about protecting profits. If/when I am in a position to move to two contracts, I will look closer at the idea of runners and letting it ride.

If all goes well I should have the new account funded and ready to go for Monday morning. Until then, approaching this week as a "live test", trying to treat sim as if it were the real deal, to whatever extent that is possible.

+18 ES


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #28 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Again trading sim today.

Pre-open trade in 6A looked almost identical to yesterday's entry in ES, and went about the same. I held through 7500 as it didn't give much reason for doubt. I had mental take profit at 7487, but I got a bit greedy and waited to see if it would keep dropping through it. Unfortunately everyone and their mother was covering at that spot, so that decision cost me 8 pips as I bailed out when it ripped higher. Overall, a good trade. I think if I were trading 2 contracts I'd have wanted to take one off at 7503 and the second ideally at 7487. +28 6A



CL had set up very similarly around the time I took the 6A trade, but I consciously took the 6A trade instead out of personal preference. 6A tends to behave like a little pony ride compared to the bucking bronco that is CL. That said, I couldn't resist a short attempt later on as CL presented another pull-back that looked like it wanted to drop. I had a mental profit target of 37.10. I had the right idea, but I was a lot less calm in this trade (didn't want to give back profits, and generally (overly?) cautious in CL). I didn't let the market prove me wrong, and so I bailed out of a really good opportunity. +0 CL


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #29 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

There was a lot of movement this morning, but the chart that looked the cleanest to me was ZN. Also I favored the slow-moving ZN so I could step away from the screen and take care of friday morning business.

ZN has been in a steady uptrend for the last couple weeks and overnight showed a nice orderly pullback into a previous breakout point. I decided to give it a shot and put a stop in about 10 ticks away. Was tempted to bail out a few times as it made new lows after going in my favor a few ticks. The fact that I had gotten a decent price (low price risk) made it easier for me to sit it out. Reminded myself I still had a good price and the idea was still valid. Alas, I could only give this trade a couple of hours to work itself out. In the end, I just couldn't hold any longer as I had to go to work. Meanwhile, I wonder if the party is starting now without me? ZN +3 (SIM)


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #30 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Back to live trading. Today took a counter-trend short on 6J. Didn't work out. On the bright side, I had a good entry price and picked a good place for a stop. Could have jumped off sooner, but damage was minimized nonetheless. -12 6J after 1 tick of slippage.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #31 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

I did not trade well today. I was taking "setups" instead of reading the market closely. I was "trying to make money" instead of filtering out mediocre opportunities. For the sake of transparency, posting the charts below. Generally, I think my entries work best when pouncing on limp-wristed moves. In today's case, neither of the moves I pounced on were limp-wristed. I was entering in the direction of the longer term trend, but still, there were strong impulses against my entries and I should not have been fading them. I was just connecting dots instead of really reading the action.

Fortunately, I've been here before, and I recognize a few things I can do to try correcting quickly. The odds of going 0 for 3 on a coin flip are 1 in 8. Not astromical, by any stretch, but I've seen these results continue unabated before, indicating that I'm trading poorly and my longterm odds of winning trades could be well less than 50%. If I go 0 for 5, 1 for 10, etc., it becomes increasingly unlikely that I'm any where near where I want to be.

Trying to think of what I was doing differently in SIM, when I had only one losing day out of 10. I'm going to jump around a bit less, picking a few instruments early on that look interesting and focusing intently on those throughout the morning. And I'm going to focus on reading the action, and pouncing once I see a weak hand, rather than just drawing lines and picking spots.

-7 HG




-6 6A.





Here's to a strong finish for the week.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #32 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

It's time for some serious rambling. Be forewarned.

I was pretty pissed when I left the screen today. But that feeling dissipated almost in the blink of an eye. It was a tension release.

Never before has it been so clear to me where my focus needs to be in order to improve my trading. Never before has it been demonstrated to me in such clear cut detail, from Sim to Live. This is all about the tension I feel when trading, and how it prevents me from making good decisions.

It's been said a million times in different ways. Maybe I just need to say it my way and let it sink in. There is a part of the mind - a muscle in the brain - that deals with tension. Anxiety. Fear. Adrenaline. Fight or flight. It's one of the things that separates us from animals, when it works. From the monkey, as I've heard it called on this forum. In order to trade well, in the way that I want to trade, that muscle needs to be so well exercised, practiced, and toned, that it can hold a wire of tension so tight that the rest of the brain, the part that makes decisions, can walk across it like a tight rope.

It's not the money, or at least, it's not just the money. I could go burn a few benjamins to ash and, aside from the regret of not giving that money to someone who could benefit from it, I'd feel less angst over it than I do from a crap day of trading. This is more. This goes down to the heart and soul, not just the head. This is a stubborn will to succeed. This is self worth. This is dreams deferred.

The level of pressure / stress isn't going anwhere. Even if I got to a quit-your-job scenario, where all the stressors of competing trading against a very demanding day-job vanish, there is still the pressure to earn an income solely from trading. Surely that is as much stress if not more. This is something I have to gain control over, if I am ever to make this work.

And I don't think continuing to trade is the way to do it. I am making what I hope is a rational decision that, based off of the last few days, my inner-game is just not up to where it needs to be, and there is no reason to think that continued trading would help resolve the issue.

And I don't think going back to sim trading is the way to do it. If there's one thing that's more clear to me now than ever, it's that I've torn through enough charts and built myself enough of an understanding of how to wade through a market and find opportunities. I'm no wizard, and I have a ton still to learn, but I know enough to make some money, if that's all it took.

I'm not a person who thinks Sim trading has no value. It's helped me practice and learn a lot. But I'm getting to a point where I start to understand the perspective of folks who say Sim is useless or even potentially damaging. I wouldn't go that far, but I can see a case that taking trades in Sim can build up a casual trading reflex in the mind that doesn't serve you at all in the heat of battle. This reflex then needs to be torn down and replaced with a steely reserve. With a calm under fire. Maybe better to just start small and build up the nerves of steel bit by bit. How well do training wheels on a bicycle work? I remember falling and crashing into a tree the first time the training wheels came off. Now I see these kids running around on those standup bikes with no training wheels. Take the pedals off and walk it around for a while. Now you're getting the balance, bit by bit. After a few months, now we just add pedals, 10 minutes later they're riding a friggin bike.

I'm pretty afraid of heights. I can't approach the edge of anything without getting a sinking buzzing sensation in the pit of my stomach. It's not even rational. If I see someone else get close to the edge of something, I get the same feeling. Even sometimes on TV or in a picture, if I see it there I'll get a flash of the same thing. But I can overcome it. I've learned to do it. Relax a few key muscles, breath, breath. I can jump off a waterfall. I can exercise that muscle. Calm at the edge.

So, here's the plan. I'm going to keep with my routine. I'm going to wake up early, and engage with the markets. But I'm going to do some other things also. I'm going to mix it up a bit. I'm going to exercise and I'm going to meditate. I'm going to nourish the parts of my life that need nourishing. Go play that par 3 before work once in a blue moon. Go play that guitar. Stop deferring gratification so you can look at more charts. Don't put trading at odds with anything else the heart wants. Don't add tension where it doesn't need to be.

And how am I going to engage with the markets? Without placing trades, live or sim? Still not quite sure. I'm going to observe. I'm going to drill. I'm going to drill into my head this decision-making process until it's second nature. I'm going to absorb the markets, note my bias, note my perspective, and watch it play out either for or against. I'm going to imagine myself taking trades. I'm going to imagine other participants taking trades. I'm going to think about how they would feel if they were in that position. I'm going to think about how I would feel if I was in this position. And I'm going to see where that takes me. My hope is that I will start to build and internalize a visualization passively what trading should be for me. And once things start to gel - however long it takes, maybe a week or a month who knows - I'll start peppering in a few real trades, reflecting upon that for however long it takes, and repeat repeat repeat. This is just a way to continue to learn by doing, but without actually doing anything that I've been doing so far. Don't sim. Don't trade. Just look at the markets and focus on what's going on inside of you as you do so.

Alright. So here's what went down today. It's kind of hilarious because all this was spurred by a net 8 tick loss in CL. No melt down at all. But the devil is in the details.

My thoughts looking at the below M15 chart at 5:30 PDT this morning: "CL is in an uptrend but 42.20 has held a few times already. Overnight move up was strong, but still if this bounces off 42.20 then the shorts could have it down to 41.40 or even 41.00. However, bare in mind that it is an uprend, and that overnight move was strong, so any move down is likely to meet with dip buyers along the way and longs shouldn't be ruled out, especially since a breakout over 42.40 is not off the table."




Price eventually did make it's way down to 41.40, as I had thought. And indeed it did present several buying opportunities along the way, as I had thought. I couldn't have staid for the whole move down, as I had other commitments, but I could have capitalized on the time I was there. Instead, below annotated 2-range shows the details. I haven't shown this small timeframe before but in this case it best illustrates what went down.




If you've made it this far, you have officially read a lot of my words. Thanks! I'll be around. Maybe we'll do some stream-of-consciousness market mediations next time.

Cheers.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #33 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
jackbravo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,339 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 4,346 given, 2,389 received

hey man...I feel the same way. Sorry to say misery loves company, but in this case, I feel like having someone going through something similar can work in both our favors to help figure out the solution. Like you, I feel I gain no benefit from sim trading. Also, I feel like I "know" how to trade, yet just can't seem to execute at the right time, or execute and exit too quickly, etc etc, thus rendering my "knowledge" useless. The question then is, do I really know how to trade?

I think part of the answer lies in ill-defined rules. I think that you (and I) trade emotionally, based on chart price action and gut instinct. However, due to the emotional entry, being in a sustained successful trade becomes very difficult. I'm not sure exactly what you use to decide on a trade, but I think having something more mechanical, especially with when to exit, might help ... alot...and I'm speaking to myself also.

I'm not sure if you've already these books, but I just purchased PATS and will also purchase YTC, both to make myself more confident about price action interpretation. Lastly, I've switched my charts over to volume, and I think that helps in looking at price action a bit better.

"It does not matter how slowly you go, as long as you do not stop." Confucius
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to jackbravo for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #34 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Haven't posted in a month or so, but have been brewing up some ideas and preparing to start trading live again in the next few weeks hopefully. I've been focusing on trade-ideas and just tracking whether my ideas generate money making opportunities, to gain confidence in my "sight". And I've been fleshing out a few tweaks to my trading method that will force me to be more hands-off in order to let those ideas work themselves out without me getting in my own way. (Much along the lines of what @jackbravo suggested above - a more mechanical exit criteria leaves less room for emotional mistakes).

For now, I will try to just post the pre-market ideas as often as I have time. It has been a very busy period for me in other areas of life, so it has been a good time to take a semi-break here and recharge a bit. Here we go.

ZN: Looks like this breakout has some legs to lean on. I'd be interested in buying on a pull back here for a little bounce:




6E: This impulsive move up looks legitimate, and we've put in a higher low on the longer term chart that could signal 6E is starting to bottom out of the May down trend. Still, I'd anticipate this do toss around a bit more on this timeframe before resolving, and it is at the top of a downward channel here. I'd like one more push higher to short for a little drop.



YM:
Equities a mixed bag right now, with YM looking like it is done melting up, but NQ / ES still making a case for higher prices. I could go either way here. I would like to be a buyer on a drop to 17660 but I would wait to see that the level shows sign of support. If for some reason YM just drops right through, I'd skip it. I would like to be a seller on a push up to 17760.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #35 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Briefly recapping yesterday's ideas...
The ZN idea triggered and turned out to be a loser.
The 6E idea did not trigger. It did push a little higher eventually, but not in the morning hours where I enter trades.
The YM idea triggered and followed the program perfectly, resulting in a nice winner.
Properly managed, these ideas would have generating an overall profitable day with winnings outweighing losses by a good factor.

For today, I'm watching the following.

6J: Looking back as far as February, this level we are encroaching between .0091 and .0095 has been the top. We may bust through over the next few days, but short term odds should favor a deflection. I don't have any solid near term level to lean on, so as we poke at the .0092 level I'd look for it to show signs of weakness here before taking a short against that level. Odds of this triggering today are low, but it could happen.



ES: I'm looking short today. The last few days remain in correction / consolidation and until this zone breaks obviously one way or the other, it seems the right approach is to find extremes and fade them. Ideally I'd like to hang my hat on 2100 and say odds are against us crossing that line today. I'd short around 2095.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #36 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

The 6J idea didn't trigger.

The ES idea was really close, but it became invalid when price moved to the target without first going to my ideal entry price. I was waiting for 2095 (really, 94.5). Instead it stalled at 2093.5 and moved down to the target of 87. Once that move was made, a lot energy on the sell side had been consumed and I would take the waiting order off the table. So not entering the short when price did later climb all the way back up to 95. Image below shows the original plan and how close it came to triggering. This one would have left me standing at the station.



Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #37 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Ideas for today:

ZS: Looking short around 1144 to ride for a possible break below 1136.



6B: Often the most obvious thing is what happens. This could blow the gap, but if it doesn't, the sellers will take over. Looking to sell the first bounce after 1.35 holds.



NQ: Trying to mix up with a bullish idea to offset the two bearish ones. I distrust this grinding move higher, but I'd jump on a Long if we see a retrace to 4295 area. Already looking at the opeing action this one is probably off the table.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #38 (permalink)
 rintin2x 
salt lake utah
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES
 
rintin2x's Avatar
 
Posts: 541 since Jun 2016
Thanks: 634 given, 533 received

Interesting, following now.

Wondering about your experience in Futures. It says beginner, if it really is don't you think you're trying to trade too many instrument at the same time? Please don't get the wrong idea because I'm also new and learning. Might not a bad idea to do 1 or 2 first and knowing it well enough to get enough data.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to rintin2x for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #39 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Results pretty sloppy today. For a bit of context, I'm still in experimentation mode here. These are still sim trades 1 contract only. And I have postponed my go-live for various reasons. Just doesn't make sense for me to risk real money as I'm still re-evaluating. The approach I am evaluating is very hands-off. This is partly out of necessity (limited time to watch charts) and partly technique (trying to let trade ideas work themselves out). I apologize if the types of pictures I post changes here and there as I am still sorting out the rhythm and detail of how I will be logging this. It will flesh out as it progresses.

ZS loss -$262.50 (hingsight: idea could have worked with a better entry and/or a stop placed further out):



6B loss -$175 : (hindsight: The obvious thing did eventually happen. I think I could have done a better job with my entry here, or just avoided it).


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #40 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received


rintin2x View Post
Interesting, following now.

Wondering about your experience in Futures. It says beginner, if it really is don't you think you're trying to trade too many instrument at the same time? Please don't get the wrong idea because I'm also new and learning. Might not a bad idea to do 1 or 2 first and knowing it well enough to get enough data.

Hey there rintin2x,

Thanks for the comment. In actuality, the time I've been watching futures markets closely (always part time) goes back to around 2010. Since then I've self-taught and live traded on and off, even auto-traded a bit, and managed to not lose my shirt, but also not make any money overall. I'd like to say that I list my experience as "Beginner" out of modesty, but honestly I really don't think I have any right to claim a higher experience level as a break even or losing trader.

I used to focus on one or two instruments. That was when I had a few hours time to dedicate to watching the market every day and could actually trade like the majority of other futures daytraders on this forum. However as of about 2 years ago, time constraints (work + family) have pushed me into the margins and so I've had to adapt. Increasing the number of instruments presents me with enough opportunities that I can pick and choose which ones i like and count on getting one or two potential trades in the early hours without having to force it on one instrument.

Believe me, I've questioned the efficacy of this idea. I have traded it successfully for a period of 3 months profitable in a row, but it fizzled from there. I have now once again modified my approach, partially to adapt to further shrinking of available time, and for the moment I continue to look at a wide range of instruments. It is entirely possible that I will go back the other way at some point, maybe even soon, but this progression still at this point seems logical to me.

I do agree that a chart is not just a chart. Instruments behave differently and focusing on just a couple can help enhance your feel. That said, I continue to experiment with focusing on the attributes of market action that are universal and I will use metrics to look back and see if I can determine whether certain instruments are / are not working for me and then respond accordingly.

-FM

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #41 (permalink)
 rintin2x 
salt lake utah
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES
 
rintin2x's Avatar
 
Posts: 541 since Jun 2016
Thanks: 634 given, 533 received

Yes, I agree if you look at it that way (increasing # of opportunities at certain point of time). Just wondering if you have collected enough data between trading 1 or 2 instruments vs bunch of them? Based on the winning % and things like that on live account? I'm really interested to know that.

Keep up the good work...looking forward to read your updates & future posts!

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to rintin2x for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #42 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Here's the morning watch list.

CL kicking off the morning with an impulsive move lower out of yesterday's AH/overnight range. It looks likely that 49.40 will not be breached during today's session so I would be interested to take a short at a better price and lean on that level as a stop area.



6E has been in a pretty orderly up channel for a couple days. I'd entertain a long entry near the lower channel line and lean on the 1.11 level for a stop.




YM is showing significant resistance at 17700. Two attempts, each failed. I'm not crazy about going against the buyers' momentum here but am entertaining the thought of a short around 17650, leaning on 17700+ for a stop.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #43 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Today a little better than yesterday, but another Sim loss. Maybe still getting my sea legs back after not consistently hitting the charts every day.

My gut telling me not to short the YM was right. 17700 was just a minor nuisance to the power of this raging 3 day bounce. I'm sort of re-learning a few basic lessons about what action I need to avoid and what to look for, hence why I am staying in Sim. There wasn't any real weakness here, so why short? But I'm happy to be a little too loose here and re-learn these lessons quickly while in Sim.



Had a Breakeven long in 6E. No idea what the news was around 12pm eastern... maybe the s&p rating change on UK debt? Didn't have anything in econoday around this time. Haven't dug up what the deal was.



CL came super frigging close to my entry spot but I missed it by about 5 cents before it dumped for a good 50 ticks. No trade. Downside of sticking to your price. By the time it got to my spot later in the day my entry was off the table. Again, here another mystery news event on the chart? 14:20 eastern? Only thing I have around there is James Bullard speaking.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #44 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Trying something different today. Trying to come back in from my little walkabout over the past couple months. @rintin2x 's comment brought me back to a notion I'd already been pondering for a while... and I looked at the charts and I thought why not? If I focus on one good market, bring my timeframe down and focus on the first hour or so, there's no reason I couldn't get a trade or two in on most days. Maybe I can take some of the discipline / feel I've gained from looking at many markets on longer timeframes, combined with a hands-off approach to open trade management, and come out of this with some improvement.

I've got a little bundle of joy (terror) arriving in the near future so I'll probably be dropping off for a bit due to total life disruption. I want to at least get another week or two spurt of journaling in here before disappearing again, so I'm not going to wait for perfection. I intend to focus on CL entries between the hours of 5:00AM and 7:00AM pacific. I'm going to let the computer mostly manage the open trades for me. There's still a lot of logic I have to work out on the management strategy, but I'll keep iterating. I want to (have to) stop flopping around and instead focus once more on doing the same thing repeatedly, and I think narrowing to one instrument is a good step right now.

Today's trades below. -10 +15 = +5 for the day. First entry short — was reluctant to fade the trend but saw an ending pattern into resistance and went for it. Was early and shaken out, smarter money was Entering at my Exit. Second entry was a bit better after momentum changed to the sell side.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #45 (permalink)
 rintin2x 
salt lake utah
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: CQG
Trading: ES
 
rintin2x's Avatar
 
Posts: 541 since Jun 2016
Thanks: 634 given, 533 received

I haven't followed CL that long, but so far it gives you a lot of action even with that time period (we're not talking about ZN here lol). It moves a lot for a scalper. Good luck man.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to rintin2x for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #46 (permalink)
 muttoez 
Sydney + Australia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: CSI / Sierra Chart
Broker: IB
Trading: Everything
 
muttoez's Avatar
 
Posts: 505 since Mar 2016
Thanks: 63 given, 312 received

Hey FM, nice to see you back on the charts trading again.


FlyingMonkey View Post
If I focus on one good market, bring my timeframe down and focus on the first hour or so, there's no reason I couldn't get a trade or two in on most days. Maybe I can take some of the discipline / feel I've gained from looking at many markets on longer timeframes, combined with a hands-off approach to open trade management, and come out of this with some improvement.

With limited time available, have you considered applying your method to longer term charts and playing for longer swings?

I am in a similar position to you time wise (work long hours & recent baby) with the addition of being on the other side of the world making the hours terrible. I find that trading multiple markets on longer time frames is more suitable to these conditions.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to muttoez for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #47 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received


rintin2x View Post
I haven't followed CL that long, but so far it gives you a lot of action even with that time period (we're not talking about ZN here lol). It moves a lot for a scalper. Good luck man.

Thanks very much for the encouragement rintin2x!

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #48 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received


muttoez View Post
Hey FM, nice to see you back on the charts trading again.



With limited time available, have you considered applying your method to longer term charts and playing for longer swings?

I am in a similar position to you time wise (work long hours & recent baby) with the addition of being on the other side of the world making the hours terrible. I find that trading multiple markets on longer time frames is more suitable to these conditions.

Hi muttoez,

Yes, absolutely. It's one of the reasons I follow your journal pretty closely. The almost robotic rhythm and consistency of your daily / weekly analysis is awesome.

There are a few things that have kept me out of swing trading futures, but I definitely want to get past those blocks and go for it. Maybe you have some input on these:

1. Weekend gaps and news jumps. After seeing some nasty gaps it makes me nervous to be exposed, even with a stop in the market, when the market is closed. Also when the liquidity dries up into a news release. The Swiss Franc 30% pop when they removed the 1.20 euro cap comes to mind.

2. Not being able to use higher trade frequency to smooth out returns. With swing trading obviously lower number of trades means longer draw downs are possible. A sequence of negative months is not necessarily a sign of bad trading when you only take a handful of trades per month and can still turn a great year with just a few very good months. A different mindset.

3. Figuring out how much capitalization is really necessary and a style that doesn't get cut to pieces. Let's say for sake of argument that I can muster up a 100k USD account for swing trading futures. With that capital, a swing trade on CL or GC and any other volatile futures instrument is still pretty dicey. Probably need to step down to the minis there. Take May, you were stalking that $50 top in CL. That was actually the right call, other than the quick shakeout up to $52, but getting the timing down, the stop right, and turning the right idea into a winning trade, it's challenging. There were 400 tick swings all the way down from there. I think you're really talking about needing 300k to properly trade those kinds of moves with only 1 - 2% risk per trade. Having said that, I manage to cut myself up on shorter time frames too. So I'm not sure how different that is.


I might start doing a weekend analysis and see what comes out of it. Can just track with paper for a bit and see what I learn. My secret wish has always been to use day-trading to smooth out returns in parallel with swing trading to tap into the meaty trends.

Thanks for the food for thought!

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #49 (permalink)
 muttoez 
Sydney + Australia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: CSI / Sierra Chart
Broker: IB
Trading: Everything
 
muttoez's Avatar
 
Posts: 505 since Mar 2016
Thanks: 63 given, 312 received


FlyingMonkey View Post
Hi muttoez,

Yes, absolutely. It's one of the reasons I follow your journal pretty closely. The almost robotic rhythm and consistency of your daily / weekly analysis is awesome.

There are a few things that have kept me out of swing trading futures, but I definitely want to get past those blocks and go for it. Maybe you have some input on these:

1. Weekend gaps and news jumps. After seeing some nasty gaps it makes me nervous to be exposed, even with a stop in the market, when the market is closed. Also when the liquidity dries up into a news release. The Swiss Franc 30% pop when they removed the 1.20 euro cap comes to mind.

2. Not being able to use higher trade frequency to smooth out returns. With swing trading obviously lower number of trades means longer draw downs are possible. A sequence of negative months is not necessarily a sign of bad trading when you only take a handful of trades per month and can still turn a great year with just a few very good months. A different mindset.

3. Figuring out how much capitalization is really necessary and a style that doesn't get cut to pieces. Let's say for sake of argument that I can muster up a 100k USD account for swing trading futures. With that capital, a swing trade on CL or GC and any other volatile futures instrument is still pretty dicey. Probably need to step down to the minis there. Take May, you were stalking that $50 top in CL. That was actually the right call, other than the quick shakeout up to $52, but getting the timing down, the stop right, and turning the right idea into a winning trade, it's challenging. There were 400 tick swings all the way down from there. I think you're really talking about needing 300k to properly trade those kinds of moves with only 1 - 2% risk per trade. Having said that, I manage to cut myself up on shorter time frames too. So I'm not sure how different that is.


I might start doing a weekend analysis and see what comes out of it. Can just track with paper for a bit and see what I learn. My secret wish has always been to use day-trading to smooth out returns in parallel with swing trading to tap into the meaty trends.

Thanks for the food for thought!

Responses to your queries.

1. Gap risk and news events can always be an issue and there will be times when a trade loses more than planned because of a gap or unexpected news, but these occasions are few and far between. The Swiss Franc move is a very extreme example but highlights the risk.

2. It will definitely be a different mindset to get used to. Swing trading generally seems like you are losing much more often than you are winning and that you are always in a draw down phase. But, as you said you only need a few very good months to have a good year and you will find that monthly returns can be quite volatile with returns tightly concentrated.

3. Adequate capitalisation is very important and also ties in with the points above. If your adequately capitalised a trade that gaps and loses more than expected doesn't hurt as much and longer draw down periods are easier to deal with psychologically as they will not involve large capital losses. With accounts of 100k or less you can definitely rule out the big contracts like GC and CL but the mini contracts are fine. The balance between timing the entry, stop placement and trade management is delicate and sometimes you will get shaken out on a trade that ends up being right like my recent CL trade. It's frustrating when it happens but you just have to move onto the next trade. That's not to say that you can't swing trade with smaller accounts but you will have to risk more than 1 - 2% per trade and ride the roller coaster of extremely volatile returns.

Good luck with it and let me know if you have anymore questions.

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to muttoez for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #50 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Been dealing with technical difficulty the past couple days on the nt8 beta. Mostly resolved now. I did take 1 trade today, similar to my first trade on Monday. A short near a top just before the open, but not near enough as it was stopped out. Apologies no picture today.

Definitely need to wrap my head around the entering-early problem. I don't expect it to resolve itself magically. I actually expect it to continue to be an issue until I can form an understanding of exactly what is this error I'm making. It is like if I took the majority of my losing trades and simply entered where I exited, they would be winners. So, I am clearly acting as one of the dumb-money retail masses, and need to get to the other side of that. I believe this goes back to doing what isn't comfortable. Possible wider stops, possibly buying when others are selling, and vis-versa. Something I am already trying to do, but can definitely do a better job of.

I expect to continue to fail until I figure it out. To aid with figuring it out, I am tracking metrics to hopefully quantify the error. So even as I continue to lose, the idea is to adapt and start acting rightly instead of wrongly.

Here are some of the stats I'll be tracking beyond what NT tracks automatically:

Max Heat in Trade: what was the max draw down from peak to trough
Unrealized MFE: From exit, how far did price turn in my favor
Unrealized MAE: From exit, how far did price continue against
Hypothetical MFE (session): From entry, if there had been no stop and no target, how far could the trade have gone in favor
Hypothetical MAE (session): From entry, if there had been no stop and no target, how far could the trade have gone against
Hypothetical Max Heat (session): From entry, if there had been no stop and no target, what would the max draw down have been from peak to trough.

The unrealized / hypothetical metrics are all calculated within the time range I could typically have a trade open, currently up to around 8am pacific.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #51 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Here's what I'm looking at in crude on the longer picture.

$45 should serve as a line in the sand here. Anything below 44.35 starts to look very dicey and sellers will have a chance to extend this correction back down to the $40 level. However in the context of this channel, with Monday's lows still intact, a traversal up to $47 seems likely. Another possible scenario is the market settles into a sideways chop in the $44 to $47 range which could go on for weeks. Just as it took weeks to shake out of the sideways action between $48 and $50.



Zooming in a bit, 44.75 - 45.80 is the range du jour overnight and we'll see where we open up tomorrow. If buyers can't muster their way over $46 early, I'll expect selling to dominate. If buyers can crack the top of this steeper sub-channel, I'd expect buyers to continue a push through $47.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #52 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Here I was ready to rock this morning, I wake up, fire up the system and ... No internet?

In this day and age my internet should be as reliable as my electricity. I hate the cable company.

Damn shame too. Looks like crude tested lower end of the range and then pushed back up to the upper end 46 level. Going to be an interesting morning.

If I were to wager, I'd say it's likely to break higher. Well, I can't hotspot my phone so I guess that's it for me today.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #53 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Swing / longterm futures watch list. Just noting some ideas here.

6J: On the weekly,after breaking out of a year long base at the beginning of 2016, Yen made a courageous attempt to overcome .01, and was rejected. There is an opportunity here to take a bet that this will hold for now, and hop on a multi-month ride down to .00875 area.




Depending on strategy / approach, I can conceive of a couple ways of trading this. In either case, I want to see a bounce back up to the .0098+ area for an attractive entry short. At that point, one could take a short at an attractive intraday price with a stop outside the .0102 spike. For example an entry at .0099 with a stop at .0102 would be $3750 of risk by my math. A target in this case around .0088 is $13750.

An alternative approach, and maybe a more palatable option, would be to eyeball smaller daily / intraday inflections as price approaches .0098 area, and try to anticipate the turn with a smaller stop say 100 ticks. This one could try a few times in case shaken out, allowing several attempts short each with a risk of around $675, with a goal of getting some green and letting it ride.

Yet another way to trade this, if one is more agile, would be to look long right now. Ride up as far as it will go, and then reverse when the timing presents itself. 6J Daily:





CL: I got to say, this is an interesting place to buy crude. The momentum on the latest downswing has been lackluster compared to the frenzied selling since July 2014. A bounce to $60 would not be crazy. Taking a long around here with a stop below $44.50 would get you into a bit over $2000 risk for $10000 potential profit on a first target of $56.




On the daily one sees this market was already poised to move higher as the week ended and unrest in Turkey was starting. Not sure if we see a gap on the week open as I'm writing this Sunday morning. May not be much room to get cute with a more attractive entry price as it could just drive higher without waiting. I think it makes sense to just shut up and buy at these prices, but would try to get a $45.75 entry (near the channel midpoint) if possible.




HG: Copper has been annihilated over the past few years. At the risk of bottom fishing here, it does appear that we have a few signals that there may be at least a moderate continued bounce coming. Notice that each successive selloff has been less extensive, and finally put in a higher low that appears to be significant at the $2 even level.




On the daily, one approach for getting long here would be to wait for a test of this 2.15 level. As price approaches that level, look for the level to hold and jump in with a stop below 2.1. So, hypothetically with an entry around 2.155 and a stop around 2.095, that's 120 ticks risk or $1500. One could use an even wider stop, down below 2.07, risking $2200 ish. I fthis thing bounced even just conservatively to 2.5 even, that's an initial profit target of $8625.



Out of time for now. Haven't looked at softs / bonds yet. Equities, forget about it. Just buy until the music stops.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #54 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Oil has held the $45.80 level but has not yet succeeded to hold the $46.25 level for more upside. Although my bias is slightly bullish here, the buying on Friday was pretty weak, which could be attributed simply to Friday laziness or to a sign that this downward channel is readying another leg down to $44. I am equally prepared for another test of the 45 level if the 45.75 level breaks. Will re-assess in the morning in light overnight / opening action.




Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #55 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

When I flipped on the screen, crude was in the midst of a steep sell off and approaching a support level, but still had a bit of room to run. This freefall, in combination with realizing I needed to roll over my charts, left me flat footed and I did not take any intraday trades.

I thought about it a bit afterward and decided to make this the first item in my nonexistent "playbook." I too frequently am paralyzed when a big move commenced over night. Do you wait for the momentum to turn the other direction? Do you hold your nose and jump in? Nothing will work all the time, but when oil is moving this decisively, you could do worse than just jump in on a pull back. If there are no pull backs, fine, you miss it. If the pull back turns into a stop run and turns hard, fine, take the loss. Even at the end of a move it's more likely to toss around for a while than just turn 180 degrees, giving you time to get out.

So, play 1: If you turn on your screen, and the market has already moved hard overnight, breaking through a level, and racing toward the next level, don't freak. Wait for a tasty pullback and enter, period. Contraindications: Price already touched / reacted to major level, or stands close enough to major level that R/R is not worth it.




For tomorrow it's the usual 3 scenarios. It will go up, it will go down, or it will chop sideways. We have the broken $46.50 level serving now as resistance. We have the holding $45.50 level as support. Below that it's even number $45 and below that I've got $44.40 all the way back at the April 25th low, also conveniently sitting at the lower border of current downward channel.

I did take advantage of these lower prices to experiment with my swing trading idea. I took a sim-long the Sept contract at $45.82. Additionally, because I know jack about options, I sim-bought a 48 strike call just to see how the decay and price fluctuations play out. My interest in options for swing trading is about downside protection and possibility of lower capital requirements. But I have a lot to learn before real world use.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #56 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

20
==
Created Wednesday 20 July 2016

I'll likely be decreasing the frequency of my posts here for the next month or so, but will try to shoot for 1 per week.

The main reason is just timing of events unrelated to trading. But also. I want this journal to be consistent and structured and LIVE, and at the moment I can't do that with daily posts where I'm messing around to a certain extent in sim. I'm not too crazy about sim at this point in my trading learning-process it's fine for now as I'm still working out kinks in my method from a platform / operational standpoint. But posting my own daily sim trades doesn't excite me too much as they don't represent anything tangible to me. Until this changes I will continue to keep the private journal going, and post occasional updates / summaries here.

The past couple days both offered great opportunities to get short before the open. They both fit into the "play 1" in my playbook from previous post. Turn on the screen and the market is moving agressively? You've missed a lot of the move but it still has a little room to run? Hop on a pull back and COMMIT to it. With Oil, it seems that even if it starts to turn on you in this scenario, it will usually bounce around enough to let you off somewhat gracefully if you want off.

My sim swing long from $45.82 is still looking OK after shaking out $44.60 (my stop is sitting somewhere around 43.50). 4-Hourly chart below.



For intraday trading tomorrow, we're back in this range that's been compressing lower over the past week. $45.25 needs to hold for the buyers to have a chance to take back control here. Overhead, sellers will need to defend $46.50 and then $47. In this wide range between $45.25 and 46.50 it's a bit messy and will need to really be carefully looking at the action. If a tighter range develops and trades sideways, it may call for establishing a new fade-the-edges "play" in the playbook.

I'll be back.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #57 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

I'm nearing completion on my sandbox activities and am commencing a real-world trial run through the end of August. I am still in flux with my daily schedule, but have managed to, between diaper changes / coffee brewing etc, free up my usual time slot from 5:30am to 8am pacific. I've done this by setting my laptop up in the kitchen and rearranging windows to a single-screen workspace. I've found that one of the best ways to combat a difficulty in life-work balance is to just remove the separation between life and work. So while I'm making breakfast / coffee / dog feeding / getting lunch packed for school, there is the laptop within reach.

To compensate for this approach, I've decided to start wearing actual pants while trading. I figure the pros aren't trading in their underwear and neither should I. They aren't making breakfast while trading either, but hey, we do what we can.

I have written down a set of rules / guidelines / things to always remember while trading. I will continue to add to and modify this list. I plan to read through the list every morning before trading. Having "rebooted" before, I know that I do lose the focus as time goes on. I believe this practice will help counter that tendency. I will post these "rules" in their current state in a followup post.

I have also been screwing around with options on futures over the past few weeks. Just sim-trades, which means I can't trust the fills even a little bit. The bid/ask on these things is very wide, and liquidity is not always great. I don't plan on trading these live any time soon, and would like to learn a bit of the math before I consider doing that. However what I am seeing is promising so far, as the potential is there for a swing-trading strategy with downside protection. I know there are some very long threads here on FIO pertaining to this topic, and I have a lot of learning to do there. I will post more on this topic as my research continues.

Here's what I was looking at today (with a Michael-Phelps-like intensity). CL Vol5000 chart below. Market had a sideways trajectory since start of week, basically waffling around the $42.90 level +/- 50 cents. I followed the morning action, which was moving along pretty logically, and waited until after the inventory report. There was an impulsive move from top of range to bottom, and then a bump back up to the midline. I've circled the spot where I took a quick short. I did not plan for this to be a runner, given the sideways trajectory of the market until that point.



The trade lasted less than a minute, hitting the target at 16 ticks. Vol1000 chart below with markers.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #58 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Well, that was unexpected. What a squeeze! I did one thing right today. I stopped pressing my thesis once it was called into question. This saved my ass a bit of extra pain today. But there is one very important thing I need to do a better job of next time. Have a plan B.

This was my morning analysis. As I saw it, the Primary trajectory of CL was down. I'd wait for this wedge to play up to the 41.90 - 42.00 level and then short it (where that circle is). I was right to expect the market to reach that level. But the idea of shorting there was obliterated.



Here's the same timeframe Vol5000, zoomed in a bit, showing how it played out. I went short a bit earlier than planned, as price looked like it could stall out there below 41.90. That's fine. Trade did go 7 ticks favorable before reversing for an 8 tick loss. I could have cut it short for a smaller loss but I am making an effort to meddle as little as possible with open trades right now, so I let it be.



I am happy with the fact that I didn't press the short case after that. I didn't take another stab at 42.00, or at 42.40, or at 43.00. I stepped back and decided shorts were off until new sign of weakness. Good.

I am also happy to add another rule to the rule book. Always have a plan B. This move up had a million places to jump on board, if one was simply prepared for it . . . open to it. Even if not part of the primary thesis. Just being aware of the possibility, before it happens, allows one to stay in the game and adjust instead of basically shut down, which is what I did today. I had a defensive posture.

This also goes back to the idea of knowing "who you are selling to / buying from". I've always had trouble wrapping my head around this idea. But basically you want to know what other side of the trade is thinking. I thought I was selling to someone who didn't know what I knew - that continuation momentum from yesterday was going to turn this thing down again. Turns out I was wrong, and the person I was selling to knew something I didn't know... that oil was still too cheap. I don't know how much I get out of this type of thinking - I prefer the simplicity of lines on charts personally - but I like to think about it from time to time, to try to develop my understanding of the psychology of market participants.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #59 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

12
==
Created Friday 12 August 2016

Here's where we are, looking a month back. I was concerned with the long side this morning because yesterday's move had us extended pretty far up. But at the same time, I was aware of a high probability for CL continuing to melt up the top edge of this channel.





But the morning action was initially sideways. It looked like the market was going to continue to bash up against 43.90 until it broke or sellers wrested control. I am disappointed that I did not take any longs today. I managed to stay cautious with tight stops and targets on the short side leaning against that 43.90 level. But still, disappointed that I wasn't able to clearly see the balance shifting upward and take advantage of it. I traded -5 and +5 on the day, so 0 overall. I was not able to stay at the screen consistently after 6:30, and was waiting for the news release. The second trade was perhaps questionable, but the action after the news release initially made me believe that sellers were about to jump in and pull the market back to 43.40. I correctly bailed out because as the trade lingered without moving further down. I brought my target in to get out for a very small win. Just as I was bailing out of the short, that's when the buying really started.




Following my rules and being cautious when the market wasn't really "speaking to me" is what saved me from losses today (and a bit of luck). It may simply be that I am looking at too much data, too much history. I have heard a few pro traders mention that most of the time they don't really pay any attention to what happened more than a day or two ago. When in doubt, zoom in? Possibly. The little channel heading up to start the move was clear by around 7am.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #60 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Created Sunday 14 August 2016

Want to follow up on a few swing trade ideas from last month in this post:

The CL idea was a bust, but the Japanese Yen and Copper ideas have proceeded with the expected retracements. Now the question is whether the action still looks good for the originally planned entries. I am still only passively watching, as an exercise.

6J idea from July17:


FlyingMonkey View Post
Swing / longterm futures watch list. Just noting some ideas here.
Depending on strategy / approach, I can conceive of a couple ways of trading this. In either case, I want to see a bounce back up to the .0098+ area for an attractive entry short. At that point, one could take a short at an attractive intraday price with a stop outside the .0102 spike. For example an entry at .0099 with a stop at .0102 would be $3750 of risk by my math. A target in this case around .0088 is $13750.

An alternative approach, and maybe a more palatable option, would be to eyeball smaller daily / intraday inflections as price approaches .0098 area, and try to anticipate the turn with a smaller stop say 100 ticks. This one could try a few times in case shaken out, allowing several attempts short each with a risk of around $675, with a goal of getting some green and letting it ride.

Yet another way to trade this, if one is more agile, would be to look long right now. Ride up as far as it will go, and then reverse when the timing presents itself. 6J Daily:


Current 6J. Honestly, the chart doesn't scream "sell" to me here. The cup and handle is a little too pretty. It is however a low risk short entry with high r/r, but being strongly counter trend I give it relatively low probability. Still , I think it would be worth a try. Buyers are struggling to retake a major level here:




HG idea from July 17:


FlyingMonkey View Post
On the daily, one approach for getting long here would be to wait for a test of this 2.15 level. As price approaches that level, look for the level to hold and jump in with a stop below 2.1. So, hypothetically with an entry around 2.155 and a stop around 2.095, that's 120 ticks risk or $1500. One could use an even wider stop, down below 2.07, risking $2200 ish. I fthis thing bounced even just conservatively to 2.5 even, that's an initial profit target of $8625.


Current HG. This one still looks good to me. I like the series of higher swing lows since january, and defense of 2.00 in June, defense of 2.10 in July. I'm sure there are a million fundamental reasons, flooded supply and weak demand etc. why going long copper is not a good idea. But the chart looks like it's firming up.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #61 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Thank you for the pointers, Infinite! Always appreciate support and advise from the community, and I will consider it.

Today's journal entry follows:

Created Monday 15 August 2016

Trying something a little different today with the journal. Writing down thoughts during session instead of after.

Woke up a bit late today so I've missed the pre-pit move. Here is the action just before equities open. Grinding higher into resistance. There is a major level at 45.25 from a couple months back, so I would anticipate this to get choppy up here with OTF players.




Since I'm anticipating some chop at these levels, I'm not going to try for a long runner at the moment. I will also not entertain shorts until we drop back below 44.95. What I will do is enter long on pullbacks with smaller targets while we see how much energy the market maintains over 45.15.

I took a long at 45.30. Was right to be cautious with long at these levels. Went for a small target but just missed it by a couple ticks before reversal. Someone was selling 45.36-37 pretty hard and I could see the price wasn't giving easily, and I tightened my stop. Got out for -1.




The case for chopping around here is even stronger now after that dump. I'm going to back off for a bit, let the structure develop over the next 15 minutes or so while I take care of a couple other things. Then reassess. I think 45.00 is a strong magnet price and that's what I expect we will oscillate around for a bit before the next impulse.

Market started to show a bit of strength over 45.25 again. I had my finger over the trigger in below pic where the circle is. I didn't pull it, was watching too many little pieces of data before it ran away from me. One of my rules: "When your finger is on the trigger but you don't pull it, accept it. If the trade 'would have' been a winner, accept it. Back off. Re-evaluate. Don't just jump in blindly if it sets up again. It is not the same trade."

So, I followed that rule. I backed off and re-evaluated whether I wanted to take the next long opportunity. I did. It came within a couple ticks of my target and lingered for a while. I tightened the stop since I didn't want to risk 12 ticks to make 2 ticks. I ended up getting shaken out for -2, which is a bit disappointing but I will live to trade another day. I am currently limiting myself to 2 losses per day, even tiny ones, so that's it for me.




I was on the right side of the market today, which is a step forward. Just a little unlucky and could have executed better. Also I was a bit thrown off by the dump at 6:47. It made me second guess the strength of 45.00 support, and even though I have plays that can capitalize off structured chop, and I had expected this option, I had taken myself out of the game there. And my hesitation to take a long at the 7:25 45.30 is something to really work on. Given the way 45.00 held 3 times and then 45.25 broke for the second time of the session (remembering point #4 from @Infinite above), this had "runner" potential. Was not reacting fast enough to the action. Just need to practice that.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #62 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Created Wednesday 17 August 2016

Just before 6am here. Range has finally paused for a bit and is now trading in a sideways trajectory. My goal today is to try and play a couple ping pong bounces between these intra-range levels, before the major news release at 7:30am.




I will also need to be very aware of how strong the moves within this range are, and any new directional challenges brewing within it. Plan will need to change if 46 / 46.70 look like they are breaking either way.

Took two long trades after price dropped to 46.02 and then held over 46.10. Took a quick stab that closed for 6 ticks. Then I waited for further evidence that 46.10 would hold. I got a higher low at 46.12 and so I entered a more ambitious long with an initial target at 46.30, back up toward the middle of the channel. I had a tight stop under the higher low, and although it hung around for a while, it eventually gave up for -6.




We are now seeing a new downward channel develop, but it is doubtful this will remain intact through the inventory report. I will wait for volatility to die down a bit after the release, and see if anything sets up. It is very difficult for me to pay close attention to the market after 7am, so it is very possible that this is it for me today.




After the report, we jumped back in the range around 46.40. A channel started to shape up and it looked strong above 46.60. I wanted to use that level to my advantage on a gamble that the resistance at 46.75 would break higher. I was adjusting my "sideways" thesis to a "could break higher" thesis based on the buying I was observing, and the general sense that it has paid off to be long Oil lately. I had a good amount of green on the trade before it reversed and my trailer took me out for +2.




On the whole, I'm happy with how I traded today. No question there were opportunities I missed, but of course I can't catch everything. After the release, there were chances to get short 46.75 and win, but I wasn't crazy about shorting highs in this market. There were numerous other sensible opportunities long and short for the nimble enough, brave enough, and lucky enough traders out there. But what I liked from today was that I stuck to the plan and I adjusted the plan as needed. And I feel like my trading today reflected an absorption of some of the lessons of the past few days. Today's trades were closer than ever to breaking solidly in the right direction, it just didn't pan out. +2 ticks for the day.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #63 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Created Thursday 18 August 2016

Looks good @Infinite. For reference I've pasted a chart of that time period on Aug 15 including VWAP (red) and also the 20 / 40 / 60 EMAs you suggested (green). I think the second entry has a lot going for it and should have been taken. I, of course, was not awake early enough that day, so didn't even have a chance. The first entry you highlighted would not have satisfied the 20/40/60 EMA trend filter. Also I'm not sure I would have been hip there to the shift in trend just based on price action alone. Like I said, second one looks like an easier entry to get behind. I like to emphasize price action over indicators, so I tend to keep the chart bare, but I have another chart with same bars but loaded with VWAP / pivots / Y-HLOC, and will add these EMAs for future reference and keep an eye on it. If you don't mind my asking, it looks like in this case you would be waiting for a previous bar's body to break to trigger your entry?




Today's journal entry follows:

I wasn't ready to go until around 6:15am today. I was irritated that I was not prepped and ready by 5:30, missing what looks like (in retrospect) some easy to identify long opportunities. In my irritation I missed the followup opportunities to get on board. Now the market is extending beyond R2 and I am still a bit irritated at missing out so I will back away from the trading machine and check back later, rather than do something idiotic.




If this was my job, and I had a boss, my boss would probably expect me to show up to work on time consistently. I need to improve here. Like a good manager, I'm putting myself on a "performance improvement plan" and will be reviewing on-time performance at the end of next week.

Yesterday I mentioned I was generally happy with the way I traded. I do want to caveat that by saying that I look at the action over the last month and I see huge clean moves nearly every day, and my results not reflecting any of that opportunity. Just want to keep that goal in mind. Right now I'm happy to be following my plan, developing, evolving, etc. But I don't want to be a middling so-so happy-to-make-a-little-money-here-and-there trader. When the market is moving like this, I want to kill it. Day. After. Day. And I aim to raise the bar as I progress.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #64 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

My analysis today was completely off, and this was the first day in a long time I felt like I was just blindly throwing darts. I tried to give the trades plenty of room to work, which in the end was counter productive. Neither trade workes at all and my ideas were just wrong. Trajectory of market was sideways /down overnight, and I thought we had higher chance of touching 48.50 before 49.00. Wrong. I took shorts at poor positions. -15, -15. With two losses I'm done for the day.




I do want to talk a little bit about stops. Up until today, I had been pulling in my stops very tight - less than 8 ticks for the most part, based on near by highs / lows. And also manually trailing them as the trade moved favorable. However my aggregate results were showing me that I wasn't gaining anything by doing this. Sample size less than 10 trades, but my results would have been slightly better just using a 15 tick stop and leaving it. After today's results, that is no longer the case. These entries looked wrong almost immediately, and they staid wrong. I will continue to watch this closely and also start to draw the distinction between a good trade that just needs to be left alone, and a bad trade (there really shouldn't be any bad trades if I'm doing this right) that needs to be cut short because I've botched something.

At least I was at the desk by 5:30. Now just need to get my brain to start working this early. My schedule has some new elements coming in next week, and I will need to maintain this early start time for my trading. As I'm still adjusting my routine, and performance is still weak, this journal will continue to be SIM trades, at least through mid september. I am taking these sim trades as seriously as possible because I have carrots at the end of the stick, but no, it is not the same as trading live. There is not that gut boiling sensation of losing or making money - it's more of a gut simmer. I am doing everything I can to codify and simplify my trading process so that when I transition to live, it is as seemless as possible.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #65 (permalink)
 Infinitee 
Midland, Michigan, USA
 
 
Posts: 3 since Aug 2016


Infinite View Post
A few things I would look at:

1. Have an EMA or 3 for direction purposes. TRY 20/40/60 EMA's and have a color setup like red, white, blue for recognition.

2. A decent time frame I trade crude oil on is 1225 volume, during the heart of the trading session. 1/2 that # other times.

3. Trade when the market is trending, see #1 for EMA line up. When the market is in small ranges passing back and forth through the EMA's maybe stop trading. The trend is perfect and strong when the EMA's are lined up.

4. The market works in 2's, the second one is usually the correct one(entry point)

Do you have any backtesting data on this strategy of yours? Or have you tried automating this?

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #66 (permalink)
 Infinitee 
Midland, Michigan, USA
 
 
Posts: 3 since Aug 2016


Infinite View Post
Hi Tim!

?? I think you got the wrong person. My name is Leo, but have you tried to backtest this strategy? I don't know if lining up of the EMA's will do the trick in these markets :/

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #67 (permalink)
 Infinitee 
Midland, Michigan, USA
 
 
Posts: 3 since Aug 2016


Infinite View Post
I had it work 1-2 times before. I know a guy in Texas who if u support his River Buzzard fund he would show u his backtested strategy. He says hes a great trader. Nice guy too. Forot his name though.

You had the strategy work 1-2 times before? I'm not interested in one, I trade using only PA and key support and resistance areas.. I'm just curious to know if this simple strategy could work or not?

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #68 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received


Infinitee View Post
You had the strategy work 1-2 times before? I'm not interested in one, I trade using only PA and key support and resistance areas.. I'm just curious to know if this simple strategy could work or not?

Yes, but it only works when the moon is waning, the tide is rising, the elephants are migrating eastward, and a crow just cawwed thrice upon the limb of a whispering elm.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #69 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received


Infinitee View Post
You had the strategy work 1-2 times before? I'm not interested in one, I trade using only PA and key support and resistance areas.. I'm just curious to know if this simple strategy could work or not?

But, seriously, no, this simple ema cross will not "work" in any sustainable fashion. A discerning trader, picking spots carefully, may make use of it, but on its own it would just serve as a guide.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #70 (permalink)
 noobforlyfe 
Toronto , Ontario, Canada
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart, SC
Trading: Emini ES, CL, USD/CAD
 
Posts: 424 since Jun 2016
Thanks: 1,379 given, 723 received


FlyingMonkey View Post
Yes, but it only works when the moon is waning, the tide is rising, the elephants are migrating eastward, and a crow just cawwed thrice upon the limb of a whispering elm.

loool and the chances of that happening are like never :P

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #71 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Back to the business at hand . . .

Focusing on a few things this week.
1. Simplification. Removed some longer timeframe charts. Looking at 5000vol and 1000vol.
2. Hesitation. Don't do it as much. In the long run it will be better to be early more often, take a couple extra losses, but also seize more opportunities.
3. Go for bigger wins. Have confidence in the decision, accept that you could be wrong, and accept the loss.
4. Focus on entry prices where your initial stop can go comfortably "beyond the wall" with the wildlings and white walkers.


Overall trajectory is down, but we are in a corrective sub-channel, sideways/up.




First trade, stop outside bottom edge of channel.



Went +15 before turning around and trailing out at -5. Been thinking about stop+reverse in situations like this. Second trade, another long as the channel shifted more sideways / down. Stop outside the bottom edge.




Went +18 before turning around, trailed out for +2.




Couple takeaways.
1. Stop and reverse. Look into it. Might mean actually trailing stop a bit tighter in some situations. But if one is able to say "if this trade doesn't work out at this point, then there is a sensible entry in the opposite direction," it can work. Acknowledging that your stop is going to get squeezed, and jumping in quickly to take advantage of that. Probably best to reserve this for sideways ping-pong action like we had this morning.
2. Getting that initial stop outside the channel / level pays off. Entries were early, taking some heat, but they turned around nicely. Trailing the stop was the right move in both trades today. Did not trail it too tight. Just enough to keep the moving R:R not too far upside down.
3. I believe that if I continue with this approach, it will display an edge, especially if I continue to refine it. Time will tell. I much prefer going for wins of 25 to 50 ticks than slicing up little 10 tick moves.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #72 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

25
==
Created Thursday 25 August 2016

5:55 AM:





Here are the different routes for today (as it stands now)

LONG with stop outside 46.40
SHORT with stop outside 47.20
SHORT with stop outside 47.30
After 46.40 breaks, SHORT with stop outside 46.40
After 47.30ish breaks, a Long with stop under TBD





Should I pull the stop in closer? We'll see. These are the questions that drive a man to drink. Ideally, I'd like this to break 46.75 before I tighten the stop.

OK, 6:25am, price broke .75. Tightening stop a bit. I'm starting to question my choice of target - technically speaking there is a case for this to run up to 47.10 area, an extra 15 ticks. With CL, since it can run quite often, there's a good reason not to use targets at all and just trail a stop. TBD.





Took some heat, but now we're back on track. Locking in a little bit here.





And out for +36 ticks. Now let's see if it keeps running up to 47.10 as I thought it might. And keep an eye out for short opportunity at those levels or a bit higher.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #73 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

26
==
Created Friday 26 August 2016

5:29am, heading into GDP report.




Assuming this holds, will look short near 47.50 and long near 47.00.

5:48am

Per the plan, I have entered a short near 47.50. Reminding myself to accept any outcome. This trade is against the immediate upward trend, and this channel line could easily be blown out or the market could just drift higher along the line and take me out. Got to take that chance. My entry slipped by a few ticks, which I'm not too crazy about (was at .47). Problem with market orders. Will consider using limit orders for entry next week.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #74 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

6:12am

Taking a bit of risk out of the trade here. I'm of two minds on this. If this does turn around and stop me out, what I really want to avoid is getting stopped out at a place where I would be logically thinking to my self "wait a second, here is a good place to get short again . . . why did I just exit?" BUT the other side of this coin is, we just made a lower low, and if the SHORT case is really valid, then sellers should be strong enough to not allow a break of that high. Of course, I know that CL can and will shake me out just for the fun of it. I'm going to tighten it up a bit anyways, and see what happens.





6:20am. Another low. Tightening it up a bit more.




7:11 am. Yowsa. Note to self: Consumer Sentiment can be a major mover for CL. Well, I was hanging on here for an hour or so until .50 finally failed and I was taken out for a medium loss of -8. Quite a wait ... I literally baked a cake while I was waiting (seriously, it's in the oven right now). Was this a shake out? Yeah, sort of. If I had never tightened my stop, my target would have been hit after the news release. BUT, I probably should have been out of the market anyways, according to my rules of avoiding major news releases. In the end, I think I managed this trade OK. And I did what I set out to do - put myself in the market and let it give me what it wanted to. Will continue to refine my trade management approach, but as an ALL IN, ALL OUT trader (one contract only), my preference is still for reducing risk (slowly) as the trade moves favorably. Trading multiple could open up new thoughts on this.





I am currently missing the "easy" money as the market blows higher on the news reaction. But I'm in full breakfast-mode and may not get another trade in today. Will return next week.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #75 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Created Monday 29 August 2016

5:40 AM.

Currently CL is traversing upward within a down channel. Primary trajectory is down, but longs warranted along bottom edge of these channels, and after a break of 47.25. Otherwise, will be looking short up to 47.20, and on a break downward, ,likely around 46.95.




6:10 AM. I missed the break lower, but I'm in short on the pullback. I have a stop above the channels broken lower boundary and above round number 47.00. I accept that there is a good likelihood that this will squeeze back up through 47.10, and at this location I am in the middle of the downward channel, rather than at the edges where I would prefer to be.




Pulling my stop in.




And again. After getting within 6 ticks of my target, I'm reluctant to let it all ride. Now, I fear I'm just asking to be shaken out of this trade.




Was taken out for +4. It has turned lower again, but may not go all the way. If 46.70 holds, and I am able to get another trade off, I could be looking long from here.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #76 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Created Tuesday 30 August 2016

6:03 AM. Up just a little bit late today. Overnight, primary trajectory is upward. Resistance at 47.20 (also happens to be R1) became support. I just missed a bounce off that level. Will sit tight and either wait for further plays off this little sidways action between 47.20 and 47.50, and if either way breaks, respond accordingy. Consumer confidence number is out in an hour.




Entered this long at least 5 ticks higher than I would like. Not trusting the support level, I just waited and waited and jumped on as it was starting to run off. Waited for information, sacrificed price. Putting more at risk and if it runs up I will take that much less out of the trade.




I decided that I don't like this position in the middle of weak sideways chop, especially as it continues to waffle with 12 minutes to go to the Consumer Confidence number. I've taken an oppotunity to bail out of the trade at even.




7:03 Reaction to the Confidence number was minimal. I am back in this at a slightly better price. Buyers seem to be stepping up support gradually. Will see. Gotta pay to play.




7:10 Well, that was quick. Blown out, now I'm bending rules jumping in reverse direction. Support structure is broken, placing stop just above the broken area.




Got a little lucky with this. The speed and authority of that break has buyers running for the exits.




Target hit, but left a ton on the table. Need a runner lot for this kind of action.




+21 on the day. That last trade was a gut move, and it worked. I honestly doubted it the second I pulled the trigger. Pullback wasn't very substantial. I didn't really place my stop out as far as I probably should have, as I was reacting as much as I was really thinking it through, but it ended up not mattering. I am holding my breath, but continue to be pleased with the recent changes to my trading style. Still SIM, and so I have two major hurdles to achieve. 1st, successfully transition to live with continued positive performance. 2nd, successfully implement multiple contracts.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #77 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Created Wednesday 31 August 2016

5:58 AM. Overnight trajectory clearly downward. Broke support. Steep channel down. I hate to try to catch a falling knife but there are a couple reasons to think LONG at these prices. I will keep an eye on price firming up over 45.80 for a long entry. Otherwise, may short near 46.00 or 46.20 or on impulsive moves below 45.75. Need to be flat before 7:30 petroleum report.




It may be naive of me to think the market will make a break for it prior to the release of the report today. And I was a bit impatient with the entry here... but I'm in. Long with a stop below the spike low. The case for this trade is we have an extended downward move that could see short-term sellers covering their positions if this tight channel breaks over 46.05. I guess it's unreasonable to expect perfection, but it would have been nice if I hadn't itchy-trigger-fingered my way into this one at .91 when I could have waited and gotten .86. Oh well, will work on that. It was a "fear of missing out" impulse, as I saw price start to tick up a bit and did not want to watch it run away from me. The usual. Stop is in a reasonable spot, so we'll see. It's already 6:30, and with the release at 7:30 I doubt I will get another trade on after this one. Market seems to be moving really slow. Probably a combination of holiday-weekend-get-away and pre-release quiet.



To be continued...

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #78 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Tightening up a bit. Keeping this trade on a short leash here, until it shows me it means business.




If this trade is going to work, it needs to hold 45.95 from here. Buyers shouldn't let price sit back inside the broken channel for too long. I've pulled in my stop.




Well, I gave it a shot. Out at +1. That's going to be it for me today.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #79 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Created Thursday 01 September 2016


6:05, will try to keep short today, unless price really refuses to continue below 44



Over the last 8 days or so, I've done a pretty good job of getting to the trading desk by 5:30PDT, except for yesterday and today. There were a few good spots to get in short earlier this morning, but I missed out and will have to stand aside and wait for the next spot. Let's see how the bounce goes off 44.




I've got a bit of a headache this morning that I thought would shake off quickly, but I'm still a bit cloudy. Deciding not to take any trades today. Market still indecisive at 44. My eye wants to see a higher low developing here, with a trip up to 44.20 likely, and possibly 44.35 as the next decision point. But I won't take that trade with the way sellers are stomping on the bones of the bulls the last couple days.




Tomorrow should be relatively quiet, but I will trade and look to make a few refinements before starting the new month in earnest after the break. Will be using the long weekend to reflect on the past couple weeks, evaluate current state of my trading method, and contemplate any additional pieces I need to put in place for a transition back to the live account.

Edit: bingo . . .


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #80 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

02
==
Created Friday 02 September 2016

5:29 AM PDT. Market is in a corrective upwards drift since the culmination of yesterday's dump. I will be looking for trades in either direction, primarily off the 43.30 / 43.80 levels. I might consider a low risk short off 43.55 if the indicated sub-channel breaks and pulls back. My hunch though is that the major selling is done at least for this week. News release at 5:30 and 7 so let's see if this channel gets blown out in either direction.




News reaction pushed the trajectory higher. Still indecision around 44. Structure is very loose here. Trying a long off .75. Stop outside several potential trend lines, sitting at .58. I had wanted to get my stop outside 50 but the entry spot is too far from that price.




6:18 Now that the move is progressing, I'm pulling stop in below the nearby low.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #81 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

6:28. A higher low. Pulling stop in below. Let's see how this holds through the equities open.




44 needs to hold here. Market wants to shake out lower and absorb in a new wave of buyers. Or just fail through. I am choosing to lock in some profits and take the risk of getting shaken out.




NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO




A 35 tick mistake. Out at +16, instead of +51.

I was trailing too tight. This thing had legs and I could see that. Should have given it room.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #82 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

On August 23rd, , I made a few tweaks to my lens on the markets. I simplified by removing longer time frame charts and started really focusing on the trajectory of the market right now in the context of the near term structures. It is perhaps coincidence, but since then it has felt like night and day. This month we will see if the eating of the pudding proves as pleasant.

These are my rules / guidelines I have been working from the past few weeks. Most of these are not technical rules but simply the points I have found serve my mind the most by reviewing them daily.
  • Wear proper pants while trading. If it's something you can do in your pajamas or underwear, then it's a hobby, not a profession.
  • If you feel "strung out" in any way--hung over, overtired, foggy, whatever--do not trade.
  • Check the news schedule. Avoid the major news events.
  • Since you are still learning, always end your day after two losing trades. These are training wheels. They will prevent you from crashing.
  • Look at your anchor chart. Establish trajectory. Is the structure clear to you? If not, wait until it is.
  • Re-evaluate your anchor chart every 15 to 30 minutes. Is the structure evolving? Changing? Still clear?
  • Have a plan B. What happens when your trade fails? When the structure is broken? Will you switch gears? Why? How?
  • When your finger is on the trigger, but you don't pull it, accept it. If the trade "would have" been a winner, accept it. Back off and re-evalulate before your next trade. Don't just jump in blindly if the market gives you your price again. It is no longer the same trade. Think about why you hesitated the first time, and focus on clarity to reduce hesitation at the next opportunity.
  • Trust your analysis. Trust the structure. The trajectory/trend of the market is guilty until proven innocent. Stick with it. Press it.
  • Don't expect every day to be a winner. Don't expect every trade to be a winner. Keep every day, every trade, in line with your rules. Don't let your results drive your mood. Be happy if you can defend each trade per your rules.
  • At the start of every week, re-write these rules by hand on a fresh sheet of paper. At the start of every trading day, read these rules to yourself from that paper. Don't skim.
  • At the start of every trading day, think of something you love doing that you want to do more of. Think of your family. Your children. Think of being able to spend more time with them. Remember what's at stake.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #83 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

NT8 did some weird things with my tick data and it took a couple hours for me to get it fixed by deleting db and reloading data several times. When everything was fixed around 7:30am, CL looked like it was setting up nicely, but it was late and I was out of rhythm so I left the system in SIM. Here is the trade I took for +11. Tomorrow, assuming no other unexpected issues, the floaties come off and I'm lowering into the shark cage.



Update: Here is a link to NT8 forum regarding the issue I was experiencing. (FMTrader is, coincidentally, not me).

https://ninjatrader.com/support/forum/showthread.php?t=89133

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #84 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

07
==
Created Wednesday 07 September 2016

5:20am Although the market spent much of the night continuing its upward lurch, for the past hour it has pushed down and broken out of the upward channel. I am leaning short ever so slightly and waiting for a bit more context to see how steep this downward move will sustain or if it will give way to a sideways range or push even higher. Yesterday's close is broken, and finding some support at the after-hours low.




After waiting and watching and feeling generally very tight as several moves back and forth initiated without me on board, I'm finally in here, short at 45.07 with a stop at 25.23 and target 44.60. NT8 charttrader appears to be only showing SIM trades, not the trades in my live account, so I'll need to sort that out...




6:50 Something moved the market and missed shaking me out by a few ticks. Shit - I got lucky there. Looked at the news schedule but didn't register that the PMI was a potential mover. Well, all's well that ends well in this case. I'm giving this some room and want to take the next leg down to my 44.60 target if the market will oblige. Otherwise my stop is now at 44.96.




Gave a lot back, but stuck to the plan and I'm happy to come away with a win. I was coiled up pretty tightly, trading live for the first time in a few months. Getting the first shot off is a relief. Busy with breakfast and will likely not take any further trades today. Since NT8 is not cooperating to display trade markers, I've placed circles around the entry and exit for this trade. +11. Market turned lower again, giving another opportunity to jump in for a second short.

If I can loosen up a bit over the next week or so (and get my platform to behave!!!), I should be able to take more of these multiple entry opportunities. Yes, trading tight and not taking good opportunities is a problem, but I think it is natural at the onset. I think a worse problem is trading tight, not taking opportunities, and then responding to those missed opportunities with emotional trades chasing the market. I think I succeeded today by avoiding those emotional mistakes despite missing a few good moves.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #85 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

08
==
Created Thursday 08 September 2016

5:25am. Structure this morning is not very well-formed, but basically we have resistance at 46.50, and a line in the sand below us at 46. The overall thrust of the market is upward, putting us on a path to challenge 46.50 again, however the overnight action has been a downward retracement that may not have much more clear path to run. I wouldn't rule out a short at these levels, but I'd prefer to see another clear rejection of the 46.50 level first. A long in the 46.10 area is more ideal.

The regular weekly jobs data comes out in a couple minutes, which hasn't been a major market mover lately. Am looking to get in and out of the market before the inventory report in 2 hours.




6:10am. I'm in for a long here. Looking at this screen grab, and where I have my stop... it's not a great spot. I could risk a few more ticks and get below $46. I will regret leaving it if I get shaken out on this.



To be continued...

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #86 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

I've pulled my stop in. Now I wait. Can it bust through the descending upper channel line? Can it bust through 46.50?




Level up:




My ambitious target and loose stops had me give back over 30 ticks yesterday after getting within 6 ticks of the target. Let's see if I get the same effect today.




Out for +15. Gave back 27 off the MFE, which came 6 ticks from the target. I am consoled by the fact that a) it's still a winner and b) This circumstance is a known trade-off I am making to let profits run, get some big wins, and avoid shaking out, limited to only ONE lot. I know that if I continue to get good action off my entries, that I will still make some money and occasionally a big win, and when I transition to multiple lots, I can get more creative with increasing exit efficiency.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #87 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

5:55am. I peaked at CL at 4:30 am and wished I didn't need another hour of sleep. Thing looked ready to dump, and dump it did. Here now after an extended slide it's hard to be agressively short, but still I think the thing to do is find a way in short. Very, very cautiously, since the market is already extended. If we find our way out of this descent, we'll be in chop / retracement land.




I'm in short at 46.78. Pardon all the lines on this chart... I didn't actually see the shallower downward trend line, which happened to connect pretty well with ETH VWAP at 46.87 where price bounced lower again. I was eyeing a retrace to jump on for a leg down, and got it. We'll see if it continues lower from here. I don't know if the market has legs to get another low in here at the end of the week, so if we start to firm up hard at 46.50 I might take profits and run.



To be continued...

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #88 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

6:38 This downward move is looking less and less thrusty and more and more wimpy. Pulling in stop. Looks like this is going to turn higher any second.




6:45 Happily, I was wrong about the wimpiness. Unhappily, I was right about 46.50 providing a bounce. Another missed target. Out for +16. Will be on the lookout for another trade, but the bulls are showing strength off this bounce and I am hesitating to take another short even as prices come up again to the same entry I just took. This could be a meatgrinder as bulls battle to take back some ground.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #89 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

FOLLOWUP: Not taking that rinse & repeat opportunity turns out to be a mistake. I think one lesson here is that for CL, the aggressiveness of a move can be deceiving. Yes, buyers were bouncing hard and fast, but they were still running into that resistance, and they were still slowing down. Yes, it sure looked like they could fly higher, but this is CL. It turns on a dime. It's always going to be a gamble. The other lesson here is again about hesitation, and avoiding trades for the wrong reasons. My hesitation was more about not wanting to give back a winning day, than it was about rationally taking good trade opportunities.




I'm still happy with how the week has gone. I expected to be a bit tight, a bit conservative, but my primary fear, which was that all of a sudden my trades would stop working, has not materialized. That is great news. Assuming I don't take any more trades this week, I plan to follow up tonight or tomorrow with some additional reflections.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #90 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

I am excited about the coming week, but that is what worries me. I have a conflicting set of emotions - fear that the recent progress will crumble to nothing, and excitement that I may just be "on to something" here.

But first off, before I get carried away with rambling, I want to announce my participation in this month's FIO journal competition. The competition is stiff as usual, with some really great journals in the pool. It's fantastic to see more folks updating regularly here and in the Elite section as well. I wish good trading to all of you. If you wish to support my journal, please add a thanks to this post in the contest thread:



Also, you'll notice I now have an avatar and have become a supporter of the forum with the Elite moniker. Honestly, I sort of always knew it was inevitable that I would join up, and the delay had nothing to do with the money, which is really a fair price to keep the community maintained. It was more about my getting accustomed to public journaling, controlling the information flow getting sucked into my trading brain, and being sure that the forum was having a positive effect on my trading (I believe now I can say unequivocally that it is). Really there is one major up-side to being a member of the forum--access to information; and there is one major downside to being a member of the forum--access to information. I've lurked around hundreds of trading blogs and forums and I can count on one hand those that have had a positive impact on my trading. I didn't want a new fountain of information to inadvertantly disrupt the particular course I was on. I'm pretty comfortable at this point with my ability to filter the data available, and I know for a fact that being on this forum has helped me pivot my style in certain ways to get to the place I am at now, feeling as close as ever to a sustainable method.

I've been in similar spots before. This is the umpteenth time that I have transitioned back from SIM practice / figuring stuff out, to Live Trading. But I can say with as much objectivity as I can muster, that each time I have done so, my trading abilities have steadily grown. Each time met with a bit more success before needing to go back to the drawing board.

I have started to think about this approach as a sort of "tick / tock" cycle to personal development. Each "go" is either a largescale change in approach, or a refinement of the existing approach. I am currently coming out of a "tock" development cycle, in which I reduced from many instruments to only CL, started heavily using channel patterns in my analysis, removed any chart looking further than a few weeks back, switched from minute bars to volume bars, and coded some tools to manage my data collection, reducing time spent tracking my metrics. But even in a "tock", the majority of the style is carried through from all the good bits I've kept over the years of learning.

This week, I am adding an additional "rule" to my list of credos:
  • Take one trade at a time. Don't be cocky. Don't be afraid. Be right in the middle. Focus on what you need to do and take good trades. So you had a losing trade? So you had a winning trade? It doesn't matter. Go look for another. Don't just call it a day because it's safer that way, because you don't want to give it back, or hit your daily limit. Daily limits are meant to be hit. Be a trader.

I've had a string of luck. Last week I took very little heat on my trades, and I had no losses. That will not continue unabated. It ain't all gonna be candy and leprechauns forever here. But I am going to hold steady, and not fall off the horse when it starts bucking. And assuming I hold on, I'll be aiming to press a bit harder this week, and seize more opportunities.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #91 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: Stage 5
Trading: NQ....that's what it boils down to
 
jackbravo's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,339 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 4,346 given, 2,389 received

Following!

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to jackbravo for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #92 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

CL is trying to find its footing after the floor dropped out on Friday afternoon. Based off the overnight downward channel, I'm interested in shorts around 45 and 45.40, and longs closer to 44.55.




We busted up through the channel and retraced for a bounce. Slight change in plans. I'm in long at 45.15


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #93 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Got to +10 and pulled stop in a few ticks. Market turned, out for -16. I've revised the channel to account for the altered trajectory.




Back to the 5000vol chart. After another turn higher, I'm eyeing a possible new trajectory. The bounce short off 45.50 came too fast for me as I was typing, and I missed it. Could look at a long off 45.25. Perhaps a short off a sign of weakness around 45.50-60.




Alright, I'm in long from 45.28. Can't say I didn't try!




Sonofa.... that trade was poorly executed. Right idea. Entry too early, stop too tight. -14 and I'm done for the day.




Looking at the 5000vol again. Why did I choose to lean on the broken downward channel for a long? That is idiocy. I should be leaning on the upward channel which I was trading. Stop needed to be below 45.07. Needed to wait for a better price to enter. I missed a good trade, and a good idea, because of sloppy in-the-moment decision making. That upward channel is still in tact and yet I've stopped myself out of it... twice, actually.



I track a metric that I have dubbed JAEFE and JAEAE. (Just-after-exit-favorable-excursion, and Just-after-exit-adverse-excursion). They track excursions during the 15 minutes after I exit. Today, trade 1 JAEFE / JAEAE was 54 / 12. Trade 2 JAEFE / JAEAE was 69 / 5. THAT IS PAINFUL.

I knew the music would stop sooner or later. I practically asked for it. It was a tough read this morning. Tomorrow we'll try to get it back on track.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to FlyingMonkey for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #94 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

13
==
Created Tuesday 13 September 2016

5:20am Zooming out a bit on the 5000 Vol, since we have a few different structures in play. The market is wrapped up around itself like a Matryoshka doll. I'll be favoring the Short side unless we see strength preventing 45 from breaking. There are a few good reasons to "wait and see" before taking trades this morning. The market has been calm for the last few hours, and it sits at a cross-roads. Another push lower to 44? A bounce to 46? And 45.50 standing just over us, a major inflection point over the last 2 weeks. I will favor the most recent move until broken, which is the steep downward channel initiated yesterday afternoon.





5:49am Zooming in on the 1000Vol chart, I see another tighter, steeper band within. Both of these channels have no upper bounds actually touching price action. I'm just duping the lower trend line for a parallel upper line. The purpose of these structures is to give me a proportional boundary around price action. They are hypothetical, and imaginary, but still they are useful to frame price movement. What this helps me say is that price is currently on its way down, dropping at a specific average rate, oscillating around a general trajectory around the median line of the hypothetical channel. Now watching a battle over $45 as expected. Possible short around 45.25? Not with out some further evidence. Will wait until after the floor open.




Took a short on a deflection of 45.55, but got pushed out very quickly. Now buyers are pushing the market into a new direction, it looks like. Thinking of a long off the same .55 level if I can get it.




Here we go. I'm in long.



Newp.




-14 and -16 today. Not sure what to make of this day. It doesn't feel like I made any obvious / glaring mistakes. I had identified some of those yesterday, and made an effort today to avoid the same types of errors. It is possible that the environment over the past couple days has simply been a bit messier, with volatility in equities muddying the waters . . . but I should be able to find a way to profit from it.

Should I have been more willing to take a long of of 45.00 early? I did call that out as a possible outcome this morning. Should I have been less agressive shorting off 45.55? I don't think that was such a bad play. It ended up being a very wide shakeout.

It could be that I'm making much ado about nothing. Yesterday's losses could be blamed on poor decisions, against my trading plan. Today I could have made better decisions, sure, but I don't think I totally went off the rails. I'll save the soul searching for another day and just commit to coming back tomorrow and take it one trade at a time.

Taking one last look at the 5000vol chart. There is one more way to look at today. The two-loss-daily-limit kept me out of one last trade. That trade, if I had the muster to take it (even if not, it's still something to learn from) was to flip flip back to the short side after it became apparent that the break through 45.55 was just a shake out. Perhaps getting short around 45.35 just before 7am, with a stop over .55.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #95 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

am Looked back at my journal and tried to identify the things I was doing right, that may have slipped away this week. One thing that struck out is the simple analysis to start the day. Trying to distill the price action to only what matters the most. Remove anything that clutters the analysis. The other thing is to go back to looking for that little, tiny bit of confirmation that price is switching gears before taking the entry. I've watched enough PA have a bit of that sense, so I'll use it. I may miss some opportunities as price runs away from me, but I'm not too thrilled about getting run over by busses lately, so I'm going to finess things a bit. In the back of my head I already see myself changing over to QM in the near future so I can scale in/ scale out with same $ risk, and not have to be perfect with entries, but not going there just yet... still want to see if I can make this work.

The name of the game right now is 44.75. Will it hold?
Will look for a long with stop below 44.70.
A long with stop below 44.45.
And a short with stop aboe 45.50, maybe 45.40 if it looks really good. Nice and simple.




Per my initial plan, I'm in for a counter-trend mean-reversion long. Idea being market wants to get back closer to $45. Not pushing for a huge target here. If I get some favorable action here, likely to pull stop in rather quickly, since it is countertrend.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #96 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

Hmmm. This one had a bit of life to it, at least. But once the floor opened, that was that. Buyers couldn't break the channel. I could have pulled my stop in and saved 5 ticks or so. Didn't. -17.




Maybe, jusst mayybe, I should turn off these countertrend ideas in my head? They've worked for me in the past, but lately I'm just not getting any love. At all.

That long trade maybe didn't have the greatest odds, but it wasn't crazy (I think). Or maybe it was crazy... taking a long in a steep downtrend. I'll consider it.

Now, do I look for a short, given that we've dropped below the floor of the market as I saw it? Stepping back to take a look... I don't think so. Now that the market has extended lower to 44.35, a retrace up to 44.75 seems likely before a possible push down toward 44. But with the inventory report coming in an hour all bets are off.

Unlikely I will take any more trades until tomorrow. Once again tonight I will be reviewing the last few weeks of journaling to see if I can determine if I'm doing something notably different that is "causing" my performance to slump, or if this is just a bad streak, or if I never had an edge to begin with and previous signs that I was "on to something" was just dumb luck.

Still, just a couple good trades away from turning it back around.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #97 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received


FlyingMonkey View Post

The name of the game right now is 44.75. Will it hold?
Will look for a long with stop below 44.70.
A long with stop below 44.45.
And a short with stop aboe 45.50, maybe 45.40 if it looks really good. Nice and simple.

I've decided it was probably silly to go long where I did. Reading back over my initial analysis above . . . which I basically did follow with the long, stop < 44.45 - it doesn't make sense.

If the name of the game was 44.75, and whther it would hold . . . why was I interested in a long after it broke? Because I was looking at a down channel and projecting a primitive "bouncy ball down a hill" interpretation onto the chart. This was a market that had broken through key support and needed to find a proper footing before changing directions.

I've taken a lot of longs this week, in a market that has been steadily beset with selling pressure. The opens have come at awkward spots that appear extended and very tempting from the long side. But that hasn't paid off for me.

Not sure what materially I will do with this information, but I will digest it and see. Can't just rule out longs off of bottoms . . . but there is some piece of the puzzle I've not been paying enough attention to, so I will be thinking about that.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #98 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

15
==
Created Thursday 15 September 2016

6:10 AM

Woke up a little later today. Last night I spent some time looking at price action divided up into pit session vs out-of-session, and also looking at the opening bars of the pit session in relation to all the other action. It seems like this "context" may prove useful, and if it sticks I'll probably use some indicators to mark this in a less intrusive way. The circle on the far right is today's opening bars, so far. This is how I see it right now:

Yesterday's session closed near the lows, and the overnight session re-tested and bounced off those lows, forming an orderly channel retracing upwards.
Today's open is around the 43.85 level, which is above the previous days lows, but below significant consolidation range from 43.90 to 44.15.
If price drops below today's opening range bottom 43.70, I will take that as a sign that a continuation of the downtrend is increasingly probable, and look for a short entry.
If price travels higher but loses steam in the 44.05 - 44.20 area, I would entertain a short.
I will be very cautious with longs today, looking for strength to manifest solidly over the day's open range, and would prefer to wait for prices higher than 44.20, though that may keep me out of the market completely if it moves slowly.
As I am thinking about using QM in the future so that I might use multiple lots for scaling but still maintain similar dollar risk, I'm trying to envision how I might accumulate a short position from the OR-top, and build it up to 44.20, thesis being we turn lower somewhere in there.





On the nyse open, price shot to the 44.20 level and turned around as expected. I was too hesitant and it happened very fast, and I missed it. Price continues to respect this channel, back in the middle of OR. But if the channel breaks, and OR breaks down, that would be very bearish to me.




Well, I had a good idea, but didn't grab an entry and missed the fast 100 tick train. We've gotten a pull-back and I'm trying here with a relatively tight stop off 43.50.




That one didn't work. I'm trying it again here.




Had some good action on that, but it didn't run. At least the shakeout didn't end up mattering. Now we've pulled back to just below the OR and looks like it's ready to fail lower again.




I'm done for the day. After last week netting 42 ticks in 3 winning trades in 3 days of trading, this week I've had 0 winning trades out of 7 for a glorious -96. What a mess. -56 overall.

There is, as always, a silver lining. From top of this post: "As I am thinking about using QM in the future so that I might use multiple lots for scaling but still maintain similar dollar risk, I'm trying to envision how I might accumulate a short position from the OR-top, and build it up to 44.20, thesis being we turn lower somewhere in there."

My plan today was REALLY GOOD. I just didn't trade it. Why didn't I trade it? Hesitation, fear of loss. Pure and simple. This emotion compounds itself as losses accumulate. It is a viscious cycle... I do handle it alot better than I used to. I'm not in a foul mood. I know it's a loss my HEAD can accept — but how do I reset, and move forward? And how can I be sure there isn't some insidious undercurrent of self-sabotage, or something in my "heart" that just needs to be right and is afraid of being wrong. Well, just have to keep going forward and chip away at it, whatever it is.

One thing that may help with my hesitation / fear of loss disease? Trade a smaller contract and wider stops / scaling in. QM.

So, I'll think about it, but tomorrow I may switch over and test the liquidity in QM and adjust my charts to match the larger tick size and lower volume on QM.

I'm not entirely conviced I need to abandon what I'm doing here with CL ... Down 56 ticks, I'm still just a couple good trades from turning it back around. But I've been in similar spots before, and it's very hard to rebuild trust in yourself, in your method, when you have had 7 losing trades in a row, day after day after day. It's a recipe for the "yips". Maybe a little swing adjustment will do the trick.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #99 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

5:30 am. Market primary trend is down over the last few days. Overnight session bounced up into significant resistance at 44.55. Could be coiling itself up for another attempt and a break up to 45 and change. Could fail the break and head back down to Friday's close.

Longs are counter-trend, and I should not take one unless a) we stabilize over the OR and over 45.50. Or b) we pull back to Y_Low and stabilize.
Shorts are with-trend, and I should take one with a stop outside 44.60 if possible. Or, if action off the OR looks weak, stop outside OR.

There is a housing market index report at 7am. I do not believe this is a major mover for oil, and I will trade as normal off the open, but hold back as we get 20 minutes or so from the report.

Of the two scenarios above, based off the strong action overnight, I think the bullish action is more likely. However, I will wait and see, and be appropriately cautious with that scenario.




6:40 am. Opening Range (15) was weak. Price retraced back over $44 and gave me an opportunity to get short with a stop outside the OR and also outside the upper channel line on the multi-day downtrend. Taking my entry in QM.





If this wasn't my first ever QM trade, I'd consider an add here: to average down.




Outcome was a loss of 11 ticks in QM.



I started a couple new things today. Obviously one thing is I'm entering in QM. Still using CL to drive my main charts though. I was able to take an entry without worrying about a stop 30 cents away.

Also, after reviewing trades last week, it seems I could benefit from a more objective decision-matrix for taking entries. I've tried to use something like this in the past, but always find reasons to abandon it, probably to my own detriment. Not going to go too far into the specifics of the grading criteria now it's still a little foggy. Basically I took a page out of Elder's "Trading for a living" and created a "Tradebill" that has 5 criteria, each given a score of 0, 1, or 2. A perfect entry gets a 10, and the idea is to mostly take 8, 9, and 10 trades. Maybe a few 7s. Today's trade got a 9, although I could see dinging it a point more on Trend allignment (which trend was it alligned with?). Need to get more objective measurement on some of these.

Morning Prep and Clear of News: 1
Stop Placement: 2
Use noise to minimize price risk: 2
Trend allignment: 2
Room to run: 2

So, despite the outcome, I'll stand by the trade. One last look at the multi-day chart, entry / exit circled for reference.


Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #100 (permalink)
 FlyingMonkey 
Market Wizard
Los Angeles CA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NT8
Trading: NQ YM ES ZN CL GC HG ZS 6E 6A 6J 6C
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 
Posts: 654 since Jan 2016
Thanks: 2,968 given, 2,282 received

20
==
Created Tuesday 20 September 2016

5:50am. Here's where we stand heading into the open. Yesterday's pop was short lived and by the end of the day the market had given all of it back. Overnight we've pushed to new lows but the bottom hasn't completely fallen out. Looking like there will be some support over $43, or even $43.25, and those are the levels to watch at the open.

It is possible we are seeing a sideways range open up between 43 and 45. I'll watch for a long entry (countertrend but alligned with the thesis of a sideways range) only if we confirm buying interest exists over today's opening range, wherever that ends up being. Will be looking for a new upward sub-trend channel to start materializing above $43.50.

To the downside, similarly looking for weakness below the OR, but the extended move lower combined with potential support in the $43 area leaves me questioning the "room to run" on the short side before a pull back of some sort. That said, momentum is momentum. On CL the extent of a move can be surprising. From an ETH ATR perspective since yesterday's close, there is definitely plenty of room to run lower, since half of the latest move came during yesterday's session. I will favor the short side early, but it may be difficult picking an entry with a comfortable stop placement.




Note to self: I passed up a short oppotunity here at around 43.20. Price had tested below the OR 15 and bounced back up into the descending channel upper boundary. This trade would have been a 1 for Stop Placement, and a 1 for minimizing Price risk. All other scores would be a 2, making this an "8" trade that I past up. I didn't like going all the way to OR-top for a stop, so would have put it over OR-mid, maybe around .35. I think the main reason I didn't take this trade is simply the length of this down swing is over 150 ticks now and my primitive brain just thinks I should avoid shorting it. Could make an argument that because of the size of the downswing, the "room to run" category is a 1 instead of a 2. Making this a "7" trade. We'll see - maybe we ARE about to bounce up from this channel, but for now it's holding.




6:50am - Shook out lower and popped.



I took an impatient entry long here. I had been anticipating a pull back to OR-mid for an entry. I took the entry a bit higher than the OR mid. It was the right idea though. Finally getting some good movement on a trade. First time in a while. Original stop was at 43.20.

Morning prep and clear of news: 2
Stop placement: 1 (no clear channel boundary yet, and OR-mid is synthetic)
Noise and info/price: 2
With trend: 1 (countertrend, but morning action proved buyers were ready to take a volley)
Room to run: 1 (could have given a 2, but 43.76 was Y_Low and that was less than 30 ticks from my entry. Calling that a "1").

So this entry gets a 7. Let's see how it does.





Took a while, but finally got a winner. This trade offered many many opportunities to