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FM's Trade Log

  #291 (permalink)
 
FlyingMonkey's Avatar
 FlyingMonkey 
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Review of existing positions:

M6B
Entry: Long 3 Lots @ 1.3405
Current Risk: 0 R
Current Position: Long 2 Lots @ 1.3405




I exited 1 of 3 lots for a partial gain. Still holding to the other 2 but planning to lighten up the 6B position in the coming days. Maybe a fools errand but I want to try and play the trend a bit, assuming it does continue, and add back in on a dip.

M6E
Long 2 lots @ 1.1997
Current Risk: 0R
Current Position: Long 1 lot @ 1.1997



6E has a lot of room to run over the next few months if this trend continues. I feel a little silly for booking half profits already. Will look to add back in on a dip.

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  #292 (permalink)
 
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 FlyingMonkey 
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Other Markets:

I'm no "macro" guy but logically it seems that with dollar denominated commodity, currency pairs, and equities charts running upward, the market seems to be playing to the fiddle of the USD. I pulled up UUP (dolar index etf) charts and it does seem that with the dollar index near 2-year lows, a multi-month dollar-low could be coming in the next few weeks (if not already in). After which, I might expect some of these strong uptrends to take a breather... But again, I have no idea what I'm talking about. On to the markets I watch:

GC



The weekly chart shows price continuing a sequence of higher lows, running into steady supply at the 1350 area. Let's see how price behaves this time. There's bound to be profit taking but with each attempt, a bust higher to 1400 - 1450 seems more likely. In the meantime, it's not crazy to envision a test lower to 1300 or even below. I'll be looking for a dip to buy closer to 1300, and if selling materializes at 1350 I might entertain a short, though the messy weekly chart does seem to hint at a looming break higher in the next couple months.

CL



CL is a pretty clean chart on these time frames. I'd expect profit taking somewhere in the 65 - 69 area, so will keep an eye out for selling pressure for a short entry up there. Also happy to buy a dip closer to 60-61.

TLT 20-yr Notes



The 20-yr notes chart is a messy read for me. The weekly is hanging onto a support at 122 after 3 challenges. It looks poised to break lower and has put in a little retracement which I will be looking to sell in the 125 area, if weakness materializes. This isn't a great setup to me as we are in the midddle of a protracted range, but if the R/R is reasonable I may take an entry.

ES / YM / NQ (The Unicorns): No need to show all of them. Here's ES, and a new chart pattern I've discovered.



Although my buy-and-hold money is fairing well (for now), I still am lacking a swing position in US equities. I have identified a new pattern called THEE UNICORN, which means JFB. (Rather than BTFD). I don't know, I guess I'll try to buy 2750 if we get it?

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  #293 (permalink)
 
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You changed your charts? You're not kidding, that TLT looks like a damn mess. Nice to see your swings going well... ride the unicorn LOL!

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  #294 (permalink)
 
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 FlyingMonkey 
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Tuesday 30 Jan 2018
===================

Been tied up the past couple weeks. The weekly rhythm of these reviews is important so trying to get back on track here. To start let's recap the two open positions from the previous post.

M6B: Long 3 Contracts @ 1.3404
Result: 2.3R (Closed)

Long from Dec 12 closed on Jan 17. This being my first decent futures swing trade, I'll cut myself some slack, but it really killed profits to dump the first contract so quickly.



M6E: Long 2 Contracts @ 1.1997
Result: 2.7R (Closed)

A little better on the M6E trade from Jan 10 to Jan 24.



For what I feel were really fortunate trade entries, I would like to have stretched these for bigger gains, holding onto that first contract for longer. Need to work on my exit plans.

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  #295 (permalink)
 
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 FlyingMonkey 
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US Equities (YM chart here)
Finally getting a little sell off in equities. It's hard to buy it, but I have to at least try. We'll see if we get down to the 26000 area. I keep running into the same scenario - want to buy a pullback but the pullback doesn't go deep enough and it runs away. I need another play in the playbook, watch the action more closely, and take more chances to get into these run-away trends. This one is very, very, very, very long in the tooth. I just know I'm going to get bit buy it, but what I'm definitely not going to do is sell short. Not gon' do it.



Crude Oil
I could get tempted in either direction depending on how it unfolds. The 64.50 area is where we expect buying support to come in and try to launch this back up in the direction of 70. Will look for buy entries in that direction, but also looking to see if a breakdown materializes as there is some room to run lower also.



Gold
I always feel a little dangerous looking at the gold chart. It seems more erratic than CL. Although this range top is trying to kill the recent move up, one has to salivate at the possibility of a short squeeze here. I may take a stab at a long if we continue to see buying off this pullback. Otherwise I'll watch for further signs of breakdown — reversion off the top of this range is a valid idea — but I think the juicier trade to my eye is on the long side.



6B
After a great run up, with the USD crumbling, I'd expect a little reversion in the coming month. Will be looking for a distribution pattern / lower high / double top sort of thing and look to sell. That said, USD weekness could continue. I'm going to keep an eye short on 6B and long on the 6E to sort of hedge both ideas.



6E
Just a beautiful open field for this thing to run up through if it really gets going. We're seeing a very well behaved uptrend, with stronger buying after yesterday's selloff. Will give it some time to develop but I like the idea of a long in here, even though the up move may seem "extended".



20yr Notes (TLT)
Short at about 122.41 (trading using double-short instrument TMV)
Entered on Jan 29
Initial Risk: 1R
Current Risk: 1R

I was stalking a long in 20yr notes for several days at the bottom of the range. However, it just never mustered enough oomph to really bounce. Then when it started to break down yesterday I decided that, in the absence of strength, there was an opportunity for some continued weakness.


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  #296 (permalink)
 
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Good to hear from you man. Those trades look pretty damn good to me

The 6B, 6E and gold daily charts are eerily similar... coincidence? I haven't been looking at anything but the Euro.

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  #297 (permalink)
 
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Rrrracer View Post
Good to hear from you man. Those trades look pretty damn good to me

The 6B, 6E and gold daily charts are eerily similar... coincidence? I haven't been looking at anything but the Euro.

Most definitely. 6B, 6E, GC, and CL have all gone through periods in the past few weeks where they appear to be tracking along the same basic lines. One chart I've been checking every few days is the USD index. These dollar-denominated major currencies and commodities can be influenced by overall strength and weakness in USD.

Below is a monthly chart of the USD index ETF, UUP. The dollar is reacting with a bounce at multi-year lows. Depending how strong this bounce is, it could change the market dynamics we've been experiencing so far this year. I'm not a pro at this kind of analysis, but it's still helpful to learn by watching as these things unfold.


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  #298 (permalink)
 
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Thursday 08 Feb 2018
====================

Swing Trading Update.

I'm once again falling behind keeping my weekly swing-trading analysis up to date. Let's try and run through this and I'll combin the recap of recently taken trades with the analysis of upcoming upportunities. Fortunately, although I took 3 losses since my last update, I have once solid winning trade still open that could make up the difference.

TLT (20yr Notes)
Short from 122.41. Trading vehicle: 2x Short ETF TMV
Initial Risk: 1R
Current Risk: 0R

My last post spoke of a short entry in TLT (20yr Notes). I still hold that position with the full size. Currently up more than 3R and trying to hold for a little longer before closing the first half. I may be getting greedy here as price is already starting to react as it closes in on support. The below chart reflects yesterday's close as I only have EOD data for this instrument in NT.




YM

Long entry Feb 2 at 25925, via ETF DDM
Stop out Feb 2 at 25580
Loss of 0.85 R

Readers of this journal will know that I've been dreaming of riding the unicorn for some time now. As price was pulling back I tried an entry technique that is not part of my bread and butter these days. I put a limit in and just waited for it to get filled, under the assumption that support would come in as it consistently has over the past year, and we would try the highs again. That idea did not work. Fortunately for me I was stopped out intraday and not exposed to any gap during the big shakedown. PA has me tempted to the short side but I am extremely cautious especially as my position sizing will limit me to the gap-prone ETFs. If I take a position, it will be small.



MGC:
Long on Feb 1 one contract MGC at 1352.90
Stopped out Feb 2 at 1336.50
Risked ~0.6 R.
Result: Loss of 0.6 R.

As mentioned in my previous post I was maybe a little overly excited about the possibility of a breakout over 1360, despite my longer term analysis clearly showing the potential for a reversion back into the range to retest 1300. I decided to give the long side a try but with only half size, as I had a feeling it was lower probability. Took the loss the next day.

I'm once again curious about the long side as we search out support above 1300. Keeping an eye on it.




M6E:
Long 2 lots on Jan 31 from break above 1.25
Stopped out Feb 5 at 1.2397
Result: Loss of .85 R

Took a loss in M6E reaching for another extension in the up trend. I think I was looking at the length of the last weekly up leg and just figured it was worth a shot to see if this had some more juice left in it. Maybe a bit greedy, but not entirely unreasonable. I think with 6E I'll be waiting to see if we can get below 1.22 and find some support there before another run up, or a breakdown below the uptrend that's been running since mid December.




OK, that recaps all my recent activity. Current unrealized PNL still puts me above where I was from my last update, despite the 3 losses. We'll see how it goes from here!

6B:

A quick look at 6B, similar to 6E, I want to see it find some support around 1.3800 and develop a quick base / higher low before looking long again.




CL:

And a quick look at CL, not too dissimilar from 6E and 6B. Looking for it to find support before considering a long. I am a little sad that I missed the short from 63, but given the quick string of losses I had backed off a bit. Now in the aftermath as we wait to see if the panic will resume, just need to be a little more vigilant and attentive as there should be at least a few good moves coming in the next couple weeks.


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  #299 (permalink)
 
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 JMP3 
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FlyingMonkey View Post
Thursday 08 Feb 2018
====================

Swing Trading Update.

I'm once again falling behind keeping my weekly swing-trading analysis up to date. Let's try and run through this and I'll combin the recap of recently taken trades with the analysis of upcoming upportunities. Fortunately, although I took 3 losses since my last update, I have once solid winning trade still open that could make up the difference.

TLT (20yr Notes)
Short from 122.41. Trading vehicle: 2x Short ETF TMV
Initial Risk: 1R
Current Risk: 0R

My last post spoke of a short entry in TLT (20yr Notes). I still hold that position with the full size. Currently up more than 3R and trying to hold for a little longer before closing the first half. I may be getting greedy here as price is already starting to react as it closes in on support. The below chart reflects yesterday's close as I only have EOD data for this instrument in NT.




YM

Long entry Feb 2 at 25925, via ETF DDM
Stop out Feb 2 at 25580
Loss of 0.85 R

Readers of this journal will know that I've been dreaming of riding the unicorn for some time now. As price was pulling back I tried an entry technique that is not part of my bread and butter these days. I put a limit in and just waited for it to get filled, under the assumption that support would come in as it consistently has over the past year, and we would try the highs again. That idea did not work. Fortunately for me I was stopped out intraday and not exposed to any gap during the big shakedown. PA has me tempted to the short side but I am extremely cautious especially as my position sizing will limit me to the gap-prone ETFs. If I take a position, it will be small.



MGC:
Long on Feb 1 one contract MGC at 1352.90
Stopped out Feb 2 at 1336.50
Risked ~0.6 R.
Result: Loss of 0.6 R.

As mentioned in my previous post I was maybe a little overly excited about the possibility of a breakout over 1360, despite my longer term analysis clearly showing the potential for a reversion back into the range to retest 1300. I decided to give the long side a try but with only half size, as I had a feeling it was lower probability. Took the loss the next day.

I'm once again curious about the long side as we search out support above 1300. Keeping an eye on it.




M6E:
Long 2 lots on Jan 31 from break above 1.25
Stopped out Feb 5 at 1.2397
Result: Loss of .85 R

Took a loss in M6E reaching for another extension in the up trend. I think I was looking at the length of the last weekly up leg and just figured it was worth a shot to see if this had some more juice left in it. Maybe a bit greedy, but not entirely unreasonable. I think with 6E I'll be waiting to see if we can get below 1.22 and find some support there before another run up, or a breakdown below the uptrend that's been running since mid December.




OK, that recaps all my recent activity. Current unrealized PNL still puts me above where I was from my last update, despite the 3 losses. We'll see how it goes from here!

6B:

A quick look at 6B, similar to 6E, I want to see it find some support around 1.3800 and develop a quick base / higher low before looking long again.




CL:

And a quick look at CL, not too dissimilar from 6E and 6B. Looking for it to find support before considering a long. I am a little sad that I missed the short from 63, but given the quick string of losses I had backed off a bit. Now in the aftermath as we wait to see if the panic will resume, just need to be a little more vigilant and attentive as there should be at least a few good moves coming in the next couple weeks.


Have to say FM, I enjoy your posts. You're very detailed and have a great thought process. I wish I had the motivation to write out great analysis like you and others. I guess I've become lazy in my retirement. Keep up the fine work, JP.

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  #300 (permalink)
 
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JMP3 View Post
Have to say FM, I enjoy your posts. You're very detailed and have a great thought process. I wish I had the motivation to write out great analysis like you and others. I guess I've become lazy in my retirement. Keep up the fine work, JP.

Same here. That said, I don't know how you keep up with all of these instruments. I can hardly keep up with one LOL.

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