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FM's Trade Log

  #241 (permalink)
 
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 FlyingMonkey 
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Wednesday 06 Sep 2017
=====================

If I were a wave counter, I'd say we are in the 5th wave of this move up. A lot of pent up buying energy being unleashed here.




Once again today - let's see how this channel behaves and go from there. Not going to pick a side or an agenda today. Although a deeper pullback must come, it doesn't have to come in the next couple hours which is all that matters to me. Buyers are still in control and I'll lean more agressively on long setups for now, but still take short setups that look good. Focusing on solid R/R setups in either direction, period.




-1 +11 = +10 for the day. Kids have been waking up very early so I'm making due with the time I have. Closing up shop at 9:30 eastern is a bummer. A good day nonetheless. Although the market was making new HODs after the open, they were being sold very quickly without follow through. This motivated me to leave a sell limit entry order waiting to get filled for today's winner. There was a lot more downside left on the table, and a second follow-up short opportunity, but I'll take what I got and go eat some breakfast.


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  #242 (permalink)
 
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Friday 08 Sep 2017
==================

The market is enjoying a little R&R after its big run. If the lazy action continues, then this will be a good day to shift into a trading mode that favors range-bound activity. In other words, take more reversal setups and less continuation setups.




Just a lot of sloppy action:



I chickened out of the first trade. Not surprisingly, feeling a little uncomfortable trading fades when my bread and butter has been pullback entries. Just need more practice. I cut the second winner short with a fat finger ... moving stop accidentally resulted in closing the position just before the full target was hit. Last trade was a nice little winner.

Really pleased with today. This is the first time I can remember consciously switching gears to accommodate a rangebound market and having it actually pay off. Even with the execution errors, coming away with -2 +7 +6 = +11.


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Monday 11 Sep 2017 (Never forget)
==================

47.50 is the critical level right now, followed by Friday's low at 47.27. Friday's sell off was steep, but if buyers can bounce the market from here then the swingers will have a clear path to push up over 50 in the next week.



Can't read too much into this chart. Overnight we had a little bargain hunting around 47.50 to settle around 47.75. Chopping around since then. Will look to see how well VWAP holds as we get closer to the open.



+10 +0. A whole lot of missed opportunity on this morning slide. But I got a little bit of it. When the market breaks down like this, waiting for deeper pullbacks just keeps you out of the meat of the move. How to recognize it - or at least, how to decide when entering without a normal pullback is worth the risk - need to figure this out.


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Tuesday 12 Sep 2017
===================

CL is pressing up into resistance at 48.50. May be a difficult grind thorugh this level if this move is going to continue up.




Trying to find support in the 48.15 - 48.20 area. But this lower low heading into the open is not a great look for bulls. Maybe this turns into an ABC pullback before another run up later today or tomorrow. Or maybe it melts down into a leg lower. I entered a long Swing position yesterday in double-long ETF UCO. My effective price is about 47.65 and plan to hold for a push to 50 or beyond. Always need to remind myself not to let it affect my short term bias when I have a swing position on oil.




Not getting it today. I had a decent picture of the market heading lower in the first few minutes. We had a weak rally to Y_High, couldn't cut it to HOD, but I hesitated and did not grab a short entry there. Then I got chopped up around 48 in a sloppy trend-reversal entry. Right idea, but not poorly executed. Then again took a loss in the other direction. Two losses on its own is not a reason I should quit for the day, but I am also just feeling not in sync with the market, so I'll walk away. -12.


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Thursday 14 Sep 2017
====================

This market is on the move higher. Overnight nearly touched 50 even. My swing entry at 47.65 from Monday is happy and holding.




Have to hand it to the bulls here. Even as we touch round number 50, I'm not selling this until I see some fear generating supply. The battle around 50 could be a clean swipe but it's more likely to be a bloody mess. Extra careful around this level, looking for buy-before-the-break opportunities, and looking for buy-after-the-break-opportunities. If we track sideways and start to tilt toward a dip, then I'll look more on the short side.




Breakout entry, entered in consolidation range before the breakout. Didn't quite hold it through the real breakout. Had to leave the screen. +8. And wasn't able to be present for the better breakout that came later in the day.

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  #246 (permalink)
 
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Friday 15 Sep 2017
==================

We are at a crtical junction for this run up as CL tries to retake 50 even. The question is whether this turns into a lower high, followed by a lower low.




The idea today is that as long as we stay close to 50 or higher, we're primed for a retest of Y_High. However, below 50, down to 49.75, is a likely area of indecision. Below 49.75, we start to look primed for a test of the overnight low.




Market spent most of my morning in the area between 49.75 and 50, which I had identified as an indecision area. So I traded it from the outside in, taking 2 reversal trades, both winners. I had booked 15 ticks when the market presented another opportunity, breaking below .75 and pulling back. That trade tried several times to move lower, but eventually stopped me out. Ended the morning +9. Every trade I took today was logical and within the plan I laid out. I missed a couple spots, but I stayed agressive for the most part. Really would have been nice if that last trade had panned out. Oh well.

+10 -12 +8 +9 = +15 for the week.


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Took a sick day yesterday. Mostly recovered and feeling OK this morning.

The battle for 50-even continues, with bulls holding their ground nicely. Price is compressing into the 50.85 level and looks ready to pop.




With buyers clearly in control, I'll be leaning on the long side until things change, though I will still entertain countertrend shorts if they look juicy enough. Below 50.50, selling short becomes more interesting, though I'm cautiously treating 50.25 - 50.50 as an area of chop and indecision. It has been a back-and-forth area over the past few sessions.

Apparently, this country's grand poobah is going to test his lip flapping skills later this morning, so who knows what detritous might erupt from his gullet. Fortunately I will be done for the day before that occurs, but I hope that the action is not too muted in anticipation of that event.




Can't get any traction today. 3 long trades. First two I had a bad feeling on mid-way in, thought about cutting early. Should have. Took stops on both. 3rd trade had some legs but switched back for a small loss. Then I switched short when we dropped through VWAP. I had a good trade on a pullback to vwap, it hit my target of .51 but did not fill. Took me all the way back to a stop out at break even. One of those days. -6 -5 -3 +0 = -14 for the day. There's a bit more time left but I think it's a good time to call it.




I hope to replay today because there is a lot I could have managed better, maybe a few clues I could have paid more attention to.

Generally my pre-open trades have been net unprofitable. Another area for me to focus on. Not giving up on that part of the day just yet, but I need to acknowledge that whatever I'm doing just isn't quite working there and try to understand why.


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FlyingMonkey View Post

Generally my pre-open trades have been net unprofitable. Another area for me to focus on. Not giving up on that part of the day just yet, but I need to acknowledge that whatever I'm doing just isn't quite working there and try to understand why.
[/IMG]

Glad you're starting to feel better.

I've experienced something similar putting on trade pre-open and even up to 30 minutes after the open. The trades look so doable in retrospect, but for some reason it's difficult in real time. I've attributed it to the velocity of trades during those times...slower pre-open, faster after the open, and the change in between. I think there's a certain cadence that the market settles into after the open, and it seems easier to "feel" if the trade is right or wrong, long in the tooth or still valid. Before and right after the open, that cadence is screwy and makes it difficult for me to gauge the quality of trades.

"It does not matter how slowly you go, as long as you do not stop." Confucius
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Thursday 21 Sep 2017
====================

CL made a failed breakout at 51 yesterday. That has me doubtful of the bull's case here, but for the moment we remain locked in a clear range from 49.75 to 51.

I've drawn two hypothetical channels that could take us out of this mess. I slightly favor the way down, but will look for trades in either case.




A lot of cross currents today, with the longer term chart clearly range bound at the moment, but the overnight action behaving impulsively bearish. I'll look for weakness after the open and anticipate the downward channel continuing. a break up to 50.50 could be in the cards, at which point I again will look for weakness to see if the path downward resumes. Otherwise we could be inflecting higher once again to try round out the week with another attempt at the week's highs. Anything is on the table really.




Seened like buyers had the open pretty well under control, took the first long for a small loss. A chink in the armor developed and I got a nice short off it - left a lot on the table on that trade. Then had one last idea for a short continuation, which was a good trade, but the market had other ideas. Keep trying and failing to get that last win of the day that pushes me from Decent Day to Great Day. Did a better job today getting out early on the trades that weren't working. Still missed some spots, but with one winner I'll take this result. -3 +14 -1 = +10.




Was thinking a bit last night about habits in relation to trading, particularly scalping, as I've been hearing about this book called "Power of habit" that seems to be making the rounds. Thinking about the way I drive to work and navigate through an obstacle course of random pedestrians and rush hour drivers and arrive at work without even thinking about it how I got there. The mind is a powerful thing when it's well trained on a routine. Even the variation from one trip to the next, with different obstacles at different places and times, I handle with barely an active thought.

Then I think about how I drove when I first got my license. I bumped my share of parked cars, poles in parking structures. Got yelled at by a couple bicyclists or peds for going too fast. Even was at fault in a fender bender or two. I knew how to drive. I was perhaps even passably competent at it. But I had not formed all the routines in my head that let do it with a strong profficiency level.

Knock on internet-wood, I haven't made those kind of mistakes in forever. But it also doesn't require any extra effort on my part. I've formed routines in my mind to handle such an array of circumstance, that they just self-select and execute while I listen to music or ponder the nature of life. Goes back to the "unconscious competence" idea.

So back to trading. When I get those days where nothing seems to fall into place, I often look back on them and think / realize that the problem was that I was too focused on one particular thing and missed others. I forgot ALL of the things that needed focus in order to trade successfully. The mind can digest a huge amount of information in real time, but it needs to be given a clear direction and taught what to pay attention to and what to disregard. It can't observe 100% of reality.

Maybe I know how to trade. But I am not a seasoned trader. I have days where I forget to pull the parking break. Forget to check the blind spot when changing lanes. Forget to look at the crosswalk before swinging the wheel.

My hope is that these lapses are going to get smaller and shorter in duration as I continue to train my brain.

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FlyingMonkey View Post
Thinking about the way I drive to work and navigate through an obstacle course of random pedestrians and rush hour drivers and arrive at work without even thinking about it how I got there. The mind is a powerful thing when it's well trained on a routine. Even the variation from one trip to the next, with different obstacles at different places and times, I handle with barely an active thought.

Then I think about how I drove when I first got my license. I bumped my share of parked cars, poles in parking structures. Got yelled at by a couple bicyclists or peds for going too fast. Even was at fault in a fender bender or two. I knew how to drive. I was perhaps even passably competent at it. But I had not formed all the routines in my head that let do it with a strong profficiency level.

Knock on internet-wood, I haven't made those kind of mistakes in forever. But it also doesn't require any extra effort on my part. I've formed routines in my mind to handle such an array of circumstance, that they just self-select and execute while I listen to music or ponder the nature of life. Goes back to the "unconscious competence" idea.

So back to trading. When I get those days where nothing seems to fall into place, I often look back on them and think / realize that the problem was that I was too focused on one particular thing and missed others. I forgot ALL of the things that needed focus in order to trade successfully. The mind can digest a huge amount of information in real time, but it needs to be given a clear direction and taught what to pay attention to and what to disregard. It can't observe 100% of reality.

Maybe I know how to trade. But I am not a seasoned trader. I have days where I forget to pull the parking break. Forget to check the blind spot when changing lanes. Forget to look at the crosswalk before swinging the wheel.

My hope is that these lapses are going to get smaller and shorter in duration as I continue to train my brain.



Fascinating!

What I've found difficult in really trying to distill trading to its basic components, is that there are a lot of basic components, that each fit in a different situation. And I have a very hard time keeping it all in my head during live trading, given the propensity to become hyperfocused.

The driving scenario you mentioned also brings another topic in the development of elite competence. Once the habit has been formed, there is arguably no improvement in the skill as there is no focused practice. For trading, I think developing an instinctual or habitual pattern is needed, but so is continued focused practice to improve. I've found those competing needs are very difficult to attend to as a developing trader.

Interestingly, I took the first two trades at the same place as you for the same reasons (in SIM).

"It does not matter how slowly you go, as long as you do not stop." Confucius
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