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FM's Trade Log
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FM's Trade Log

  #71 (permalink)
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August 23, 2016

Back to the business at hand . . .

Focusing on a few things this week.
1. Simplification. Removed some longer timeframe charts. Looking at 5000vol and 1000vol.
2. Hesitation. Don't do it as much. In the long run it will be better to be early more often, take a couple extra losses, but also seize more opportunities.
3. Go for bigger wins. Have confidence in the decision, accept that you could be wrong, and accept the loss.
4. Focus on entry prices where your initial stop can go comfortably "beyond the wall" with the wildlings and white walkers.


Overall trajectory is down, but we are in a corrective sub-channel, sideways/up.

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First trade, stop outside bottom edge of channel.

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Went +15 before turning around and trailing out at -5. Been thinking about stop+reverse in situations like this. Second trade, another long as the channel shifted more sideways / down. Stop outside the bottom edge.

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Went +18 before turning around, trailed out for +2.

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Couple takeaways.
1. Stop and reverse. Look into it. Might mean actually trailing stop a bit tighter in some situations. But if one is able to say "if this trade doesn't work out at this point, then there is a sensible entry in the opposite direction," it can work. Acknowledging that your stop is going to get squeezed, and jumping in quickly to take advantage of that. Probably best to reserve this for sideways ping-pong action like we had this morning.
2. Getting that initial stop outside the channel / level pays off. Entries were early, taking some heat, but they turned around nicely. Trailing the stop was the right move in both trades today. Did not trail it too tight. Just enough to keep the moving R:R not too far upside down.
3. I believe that if I continue with this approach, it will display an edge, especially if I continue to refine it. Time will tell. I much prefer going for wins of 25 to 50 ticks than slicing up little 10 tick moves.

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  #72 (permalink)
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August 25, 2016

25
==
Created Thursday 25 August 2016

5:55 AM:

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Here are the different routes for today (as it stands now)

LONG with stop outside 46.40
SHORT with stop outside 47.20
SHORT with stop outside 47.30
After 46.40 breaks, SHORT with stop outside 46.40
After 47.30ish breaks, a Long with stop under TBD

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Should I pull the stop in closer? We'll see. These are the questions that drive a man to drink. Ideally, I'd like this to break 46.75 before I tighten the stop.

OK, 6:25am, price broke .75. Tightening stop a bit. I'm starting to question my choice of target - technically speaking there is a case for this to run up to 47.10 area, an extra 15 ticks. With CL, since it can run quite often, there's a good reason not to use targets at all and just trail a stop. TBD.

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Took some heat, but now we're back on track. Locking in a little bit here.

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And out for +36 ticks. Now let's see if it keeps running up to 47.10 as I thought it might. And keep an eye out for short opportunity at those levels or a bit higher.

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  #73 (permalink)
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August 26, 2016


26
==
Created Friday 26 August 2016

5:29am, heading into GDP report.

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Assuming this holds, will look short near 47.50 and long near 47.00.

5:48am

Per the plan, I have entered a short near 47.50. Reminding myself to accept any outcome. This trade is against the immediate upward trend, and this channel line could easily be blown out or the market could just drift higher along the line and take me out. Got to take that chance. My entry slipped by a few ticks, which I'm not too crazy about (was at .47). Problem with market orders. Will consider using limit orders for entry next week.

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  #74 (permalink)
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August 26, 2016 (continued)

6:12am

Taking a bit of risk out of the trade here. I'm of two minds on this. If this does turn around and stop me out, what I really want to avoid is getting stopped out at a place where I would be logically thinking to my self "wait a second, here is a good place to get short again . . . why did I just exit?" BUT the other side of this coin is, we just made a lower low, and if the SHORT case is really valid, then sellers should be strong enough to not allow a break of that high. Of course, I know that CL can and will shake me out just for the fun of it. I'm going to tighten it up a bit anyways, and see what happens.

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6:20am. Another low. Tightening it up a bit more.

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7:11 am. Yowsa. Note to self: Consumer Sentiment can be a major mover for CL. Well, I was hanging on here for an hour or so until .50 finally failed and I was taken out for a medium loss of -8. Quite a wait ... I literally baked a cake while I was waiting (seriously, it's in the oven right now). Was this a shake out? Yeah, sort of. If I had never tightened my stop, my target would have been hit after the news release. BUT, I probably should have been out of the market anyways, according to my rules of avoiding major news releases. In the end, I think I managed this trade OK. And I did what I set out to do - put myself in the market and let it give me what it wanted to. Will continue to refine my trade management approach, but as an ALL IN, ALL OUT trader (one contract only), my preference is still for reducing risk (slowly) as the trade moves favorably. Trading multiple could open up new thoughts on this.

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I am currently missing the "easy" money as the market blows higher on the news reaction. But I'm in full breakfast-mode and may not get another trade in today. Will return next week.

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  #75 (permalink)
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August 29, 2016

Created Monday 29 August 2016

5:40 AM.

Currently CL is traversing upward within a down channel. Primary trajectory is down, but longs warranted along bottom edge of these channels, and after a break of 47.25. Otherwise, will be looking short up to 47.20, and on a break downward, ,likely around 46.95.

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6:10 AM. I missed the break lower, but I'm in short on the pullback. I have a stop above the channels broken lower boundary and above round number 47.00. I accept that there is a good likelihood that this will squeeze back up through 47.10, and at this location I am in the middle of the downward channel, rather than at the edges where I would prefer to be.

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Pulling my stop in.

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And again. After getting within 6 ticks of my target, I'm reluctant to let it all ride. Now, I fear I'm just asking to be shaken out of this trade.

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Was taken out for +4. It has turned lower again, but may not go all the way. If 46.70 holds, and I am able to get another trade off, I could be looking long from here.

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  #76 (permalink)
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August 30, 2016

Created Tuesday 30 August 2016

6:03 AM. Up just a little bit late today. Overnight, primary trajectory is upward. Resistance at 47.20 (also happens to be R1) became support. I just missed a bounce off that level. Will sit tight and either wait for further plays off this little sidways action between 47.20 and 47.50, and if either way breaks, respond accordingy. Consumer confidence number is out in an hour.

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Entered this long at least 5 ticks higher than I would like. Not trusting the support level, I just waited and waited and jumped on as it was starting to run off. Waited for information, sacrificed price. Putting more at risk and if it runs up I will take that much less out of the trade.

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I decided that I don't like this position in the middle of weak sideways chop, especially as it continues to waffle with 12 minutes to go to the Consumer Confidence number. I've taken an oppotunity to bail out of the trade at even.

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7:03 Reaction to the Confidence number was minimal. I am back in this at a slightly better price. Buyers seem to be stepping up support gradually. Will see. Gotta pay to play.

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7:10 Well, that was quick. Blown out, now I'm bending rules jumping in reverse direction. Support structure is broken, placing stop just above the broken area.

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Got a little lucky with this. The speed and authority of that break has buyers running for the exits.

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Target hit, but left a ton on the table. Need a runner lot for this kind of action.

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+21 on the day. That last trade was a gut move, and it worked. I honestly doubted it the second I pulled the trigger. Pullback wasn't very substantial. I didn't really place my stop out as far as I probably should have, as I was reacting as much as I was really thinking it through, but it ended up not mattering. I am holding my breath, but continue to be pleased with the recent changes to my trading style. Still SIM, and so I have two major hurdles to achieve. 1st, successfully transition to live with continued positive performance. 2nd, successfully implement multiple contracts.

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  #77 (permalink)
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August 31, 2016

Created Wednesday 31 August 2016

5:58 AM. Overnight trajectory clearly downward. Broke support. Steep channel down. I hate to try to catch a falling knife but there are a couple reasons to think LONG at these prices. I will keep an eye on price firming up over 45.80 for a long entry. Otherwise, may short near 46.00 or 46.20 or on impulsive moves below 45.75. Need to be flat before 7:30 petroleum report.

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It may be naive of me to think the market will make a break for it prior to the release of the report today. And I was a bit impatient with the entry here... but I'm in. Long with a stop below the spike low. The case for this trade is we have an extended downward move that could see short-term sellers covering their positions if this tight channel breaks over 46.05. I guess it's unreasonable to expect perfection, but it would have been nice if I hadn't itchy-trigger-fingered my way into this one at .91 when I could have waited and gotten .86. Oh well, will work on that. It was a "fear of missing out" impulse, as I saw price start to tick up a bit and did not want to watch it run away from me. The usual. Stop is in a reasonable spot, so we'll see. It's already 6:30, and with the release at 7:30 I doubt I will get another trade on after this one. Market seems to be moving really slow. Probably a combination of holiday-weekend-get-away and pre-release quiet.

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To be continued...

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  #78 (permalink)
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August 31, 2016 (continued)

Tightening up a bit. Keeping this trade on a short leash here, until it shows me it means business.

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If this trade is going to work, it needs to hold 45.95 from here. Buyers shouldn't let price sit back inside the broken channel for too long. I've pulled in my stop.

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Well, I gave it a shot. Out at +1. That's going to be it for me today.

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  #79 (permalink)
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September 1, 2016

Created Thursday 01 September 2016


6:05, will try to keep short today, unless price really refuses to continue below 44
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Over the last 8 days or so, I've done a pretty good job of getting to the trading desk by 5:30PDT, except for yesterday and today. There were a few good spots to get in short earlier this morning, but I missed out and will have to stand aside and wait for the next spot. Let's see how the bounce goes off 44.

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I've got a bit of a headache this morning that I thought would shake off quickly, but I'm still a bit cloudy. Deciding not to take any trades today. Market still indecisive at 44. My eye wants to see a higher low developing here, with a trip up to 44.20 likely, and possibly 44.35 as the next decision point. But I won't take that trade with the way sellers are stomping on the bones of the bulls the last couple days.

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Tomorrow should be relatively quiet, but I will trade and look to make a few refinements before starting the new month in earnest after the break. Will be using the long weekend to reflect on the past couple weeks, evaluate current state of my trading method, and contemplate any additional pieces I need to put in place for a transition back to the live account.

Edit: bingo . . .

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September 2, 2016


02
==
Created Friday 02 September 2016

5:29 AM PDT. Market is in a corrective upwards drift since the culmination of yesterday's dump. I will be looking for trades in either direction, primarily off the 43.30 / 43.80 levels. I might consider a low risk short off 43.55 if the indicated sub-channel breaks and pulls back. My hunch though is that the major selling is done at least for this week. News release at 5:30 and 7 so let's see if this channel gets blown out in either direction.

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News reaction pushed the trajectory higher. Still indecision around 44. Structure is very loose here. Trying a long off .75. Stop outside several potential trend lines, sitting at .58. I had wanted to get my stop outside 50 but the entry spot is too far from that price.

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6:18 Now that the move is progressing, I'm pulling stop in below the nearby low.

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