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FM's Trade Log
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FM's Trade Log

  #61 (permalink)
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August 15, 2016

Thank you for the pointers, Infinite! Always appreciate support and advise from the community, and I will consider it.

Today's journal entry follows:

Created Monday 15 August 2016

Trying something a little different today with the journal. Writing down thoughts during session instead of after.

Woke up a bit late today so I've missed the pre-pit move. Here is the action just before equities open. Grinding higher into resistance. There is a major level at 45.25 from a couple months back, so I would anticipate this to get choppy up here with OTF players.

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Since I'm anticipating some chop at these levels, I'm not going to try for a long runner at the moment. I will also not entertain shorts until we drop back below 44.95. What I will do is enter long on pullbacks with smaller targets while we see how much energy the market maintains over 45.15.

I took a long at 45.30. Was right to be cautious with long at these levels. Went for a small target but just missed it by a couple ticks before reversal. Someone was selling 45.36-37 pretty hard and I could see the price wasn't giving easily, and I tightened my stop. Got out for -1.

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The case for chopping around here is even stronger now after that dump. I'm going to back off for a bit, let the structure develop over the next 15 minutes or so while I take care of a couple other things. Then reassess. I think 45.00 is a strong magnet price and that's what I expect we will oscillate around for a bit before the next impulse.

Market started to show a bit of strength over 45.25 again. I had my finger over the trigger in below pic where the circle is. I didn't pull it, was watching too many little pieces of data before it ran away from me. One of my rules: "When your finger is on the trigger but you don't pull it, accept it. If the trade 'would have' been a winner, accept it. Back off. Re-evaluate. Don't just jump in blindly if it sets up again. It is not the same trade."

So, I followed that rule. I backed off and re-evaluated whether I wanted to take the next long opportunity. I did. It came within a couple ticks of my target and lingered for a while. I tightened the stop since I didn't want to risk 12 ticks to make 2 ticks. I ended up getting shaken out for -2, which is a bit disappointing but I will live to trade another day. I am currently limiting myself to 2 losses per day, even tiny ones, so that's it for me.

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I was on the right side of the market today, which is a step forward. Just a little unlucky and could have executed better. Also I was a bit thrown off by the dump at 6:47. It made me second guess the strength of 45.00 support, and even though I have plays that can capitalize off structured chop, and I had expected this option, I had taken myself out of the game there. And my hesitation to take a long at the 7:25 45.30 is something to really work on. Given the way 45.00 held 3 times and then 45.25 broke for the second time of the session (remembering point #4 from @Infinite above), this had "runner" potential. Was not reacting fast enough to the action. Just need to practice that.


Last edited by FlyingMonkey; August 15th, 2016 at 12:17 PM.
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  #62 (permalink)
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August 17, 2016

Created Wednesday 17 August 2016

Just before 6am here. Range has finally paused for a bit and is now trading in a sideways trajectory. My goal today is to try and play a couple ping pong bounces between these intra-range levels, before the major news release at 7:30am.

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I will also need to be very aware of how strong the moves within this range are, and any new directional challenges brewing within it. Plan will need to change if 46 / 46.70 look like they are breaking either way.

Took two long trades after price dropped to 46.02 and then held over 46.10. Took a quick stab that closed for 6 ticks. Then I waited for further evidence that 46.10 would hold. I got a higher low at 46.12 and so I entered a more ambitious long with an initial target at 46.30, back up toward the middle of the channel. I had a tight stop under the higher low, and although it hung around for a while, it eventually gave up for -6.

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We are now seeing a new downward channel develop, but it is doubtful this will remain intact through the inventory report. I will wait for volatility to die down a bit after the release, and see if anything sets up. It is very difficult for me to pay close attention to the market after 7am, so it is very possible that this is it for me today.

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After the report, we jumped back in the range around 46.40. A channel started to shape up and it looked strong above 46.60. I wanted to use that level to my advantage on a gamble that the resistance at 46.75 would break higher. I was adjusting my "sideways" thesis to a "could break higher" thesis based on the buying I was observing, and the general sense that it has paid off to be long Oil lately. I had a good amount of green on the trade before it reversed and my trailer took me out for +2.

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On the whole, I'm happy with how I traded today. No question there were opportunities I missed, but of course I can't catch everything. After the release, there were chances to get short 46.75 and win, but I wasn't crazy about shorting highs in this market. There were numerous other sensible opportunities long and short for the nimble enough, brave enough, and lucky enough traders out there. But what I liked from today was that I stuck to the plan and I adjusted the plan as needed. And I feel like my trading today reflected an absorption of some of the lessons of the past few days. Today's trades were closer than ever to breaking solidly in the right direction, it just didn't pan out. +2 ticks for the day.

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  #63 (permalink)
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August 18, 2016


Created Thursday 18 August 2016

Looks good @Infinite. For reference I've pasted a chart of that time period on Aug 15 including VWAP (red) and also the 20 / 40 / 60 EMAs you suggested (green). I think the second entry has a lot going for it and should have been taken. I, of course, was not awake early enough that day, so didn't even have a chance. The first entry you highlighted would not have satisfied the 20/40/60 EMA trend filter. Also I'm not sure I would have been hip there to the shift in trend just based on price action alone. Like I said, second one looks like an easier entry to get behind. I like to emphasize price action over indicators, so I tend to keep the chart bare, but I have another chart with same bars but loaded with VWAP / pivots / Y-HLOC, and will add these EMAs for future reference and keep an eye on it. If you don't mind my asking, it looks like in this case you would be waiting for a previous bar's body to break to trigger your entry?

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Today's journal entry follows:

I wasn't ready to go until around 6:15am today. I was irritated that I was not prepped and ready by 5:30, missing what looks like (in retrospect) some easy to identify long opportunities. In my irritation I missed the followup opportunities to get on board. Now the market is extending beyond R2 and I am still a bit irritated at missing out so I will back away from the trading machine and check back later, rather than do something idiotic.

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If this was my job, and I had a boss, my boss would probably expect me to show up to work on time consistently. I need to improve here. Like a good manager, I'm putting myself on a "performance improvement plan" and will be reviewing on-time performance at the end of next week.

Yesterday I mentioned I was generally happy with the way I traded. I do want to caveat that by saying that I look at the action over the last month and I see huge clean moves nearly every day, and my results not reflecting any of that opportunity. Just want to keep that goal in mind. Right now I'm happy to be following my plan, developing, evolving, etc. But I don't want to be a middling so-so happy-to-make-a-little-money-here-and-there trader. When the market is moving like this, I want to kill it. Day. After. Day. And I aim to raise the bar as I progress.

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  #64 (permalink)
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August 19, 2016

My analysis today was completely off, and this was the first day in a long time I felt like I was just blindly throwing darts. I tried to give the trades plenty of room to work, which in the end was counter productive. Neither trade workes at all and my ideas were just wrong. Trajectory of market was sideways /down overnight, and I thought we had higher chance of touching 48.50 before 49.00. Wrong. I took shorts at poor positions. -15, -15. With two losses I'm done for the day.

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I do want to talk a little bit about stops. Up until today, I had been pulling in my stops very tight - less than 8 ticks for the most part, based on near by highs / lows. And also manually trailing them as the trade moved favorable. However my aggregate results were showing me that I wasn't gaining anything by doing this. Sample size less than 10 trades, but my results would have been slightly better just using a 15 tick stop and leaving it. After today's results, that is no longer the case. These entries looked wrong almost immediately, and they staid wrong. I will continue to watch this closely and also start to draw the distinction between a good trade that just needs to be left alone, and a bad trade (there really shouldn't be any bad trades if I'm doing this right) that needs to be cut short because I've botched something.

At least I was at the desk by 5:30. Now just need to get my brain to start working this early. My schedule has some new elements coming in next week, and I will need to maintain this early start time for my trading. As I'm still adjusting my routine, and performance is still weak, this journal will continue to be SIM trades, at least through mid september. I am taking these sim trades as seriously as possible because I have carrots at the end of the stick, but no, it is not the same as trading live. There is not that gut boiling sensation of losing or making money - it's more of a gut simmer. I am doing everything I can to codify and simplify my trading process so that when I transition to live, it is as seemless as possible.

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  #65 (permalink)
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Infinite View Post
A few things I would look at:

1. Have an EMA or 3 for direction purposes. TRY 20/40/60 EMA's and have a color setup like red, white, blue for recognition.

2. A decent time frame I trade crude oil on is 1225 volume, during the heart of the trading session. 1/2 that # other times.

3. Trade when the market is trending, see #1 for EMA line up. When the market is in small ranges passing back and forth through the EMA's maybe stop trading. The trend is perfect and strong when the EMA's are lined up.

4. The market works in 2's, the second one is usually the correct one(entry point)

Do you have any backtesting data on this strategy of yours? Or have you tried automating this?

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  #66 (permalink)
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Infinite View Post
Hi Tim!

?? I think you got the wrong person. My name is Leo, but have you tried to backtest this strategy? I don't know if lining up of the EMA's will do the trick in these markets :/

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  #67 (permalink)
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Infinite View Post
I had it work 1-2 times before. I know a guy in Texas who if u support his River Buzzard fund he would show u his backtested strategy. He says hes a great trader. Nice guy too. Forot his name though.

You had the strategy work 1-2 times before? I'm not interested in one, I trade using only PA and key support and resistance areas.. I'm just curious to know if this simple strategy could work or not?

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  #68 (permalink)
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Infinitee View Post
You had the strategy work 1-2 times before? I'm not interested in one, I trade using only PA and key support and resistance areas.. I'm just curious to know if this simple strategy could work or not?

Yes, but it only works when the moon is waning, the tide is rising, the elephants are migrating eastward, and a crow just cawwed thrice upon the limb of a whispering elm.

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  #69 (permalink)
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Infinitee View Post
You had the strategy work 1-2 times before? I'm not interested in one, I trade using only PA and key support and resistance areas.. I'm just curious to know if this simple strategy could work or not?

But, seriously, no, this simple ema cross will not "work" in any sustainable fashion. A discerning trader, picking spots carefully, may make use of it, but on its own it would just serve as a guide.

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  #70 (permalink)
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FlyingMonkey View Post
Yes, but it only works when the moon is waning, the tide is rising, the elephants are migrating eastward, and a crow just cawwed thrice upon the limb of a whispering elm.

loool and the chances of that happening are like never :P

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