Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
MES is in a panic sell off. Bounce is in progress. Probability of overshooting levels is high due to the volatility. I'm not buying the end-of-the-world narrative but I'm also not going to fight the bears without good reason. The area between 3000 and 3050 looks good for a pullback short. If we don't get there, and start to turn, I'll look for another way in. I'm forcing myself not to fade the energy, so longs are off the table for now. I'll be honest, the volatility is worrisome and I may be under-adjusting to it. Just got a do my best and hold on tight.
M6E
M6E is on its way back up the ladder. So I look long. 1.1120 seems inevitable and this is one of those times where having a scale-in could be useful. Just hop in with one long now, and average in one more if it dips to 1.1025. Of course, I am not employing any scale-in entries at this point. I will take the pull back long at 1020 if we get it, otherwise I might end up sitting out.
MGC:
MGC is hanging on to its bullish energy as it remains above 1550. I'll watch to see how it behaves in the low 1600s. Setting alerts at 1560 and 1615 with a wait-and-see approach.
Out of an over-abundance of caution, I have not been swing or day trading.
I have, however, been slowly transitioning cash savings into equities. Slowly.
Local gun shop:
Yes, even in los angeles. All politics are set aside when self-interest is at play. In 2008 we ran on the banks. In 2020 we run on food and cleaning staples and the gun shop. I need a gun to accompany me behind my barricade of toilet paper and frozen fries.
I'm not kidding. I do.
No trades, no change in my numbers since my last post. The volatility went outside my trading parameters, and I was distracted. Call it fear, analysis paralysis perhaps. I think it's under-preparedness on my part. But better safe than sorry, and so, no trades. Absent a plan, make a plan. Others might trudge forward and hope for the best. I suppose I am a bit conservative by nature. Which, if you knew me, would be a laugh.
There may be more opportunities to day-trade in the coming weeks. It really is a day at a time right now. My focus needs to be the longer term charts before anything else. Longer than swing or day. Looong. To wit:
My data for ES doesn't go back far enough. So here's SPY with some levels pointed out in index points. Back in 2008 they said it was a once in a generation event. So, above would represent a very bad case, losing more than half the value over a year and a half.
For the record, *I do NOT think this will be that bad.* But I am no expert. I don't know the first thing about macro-economics. I recognize that this isn't just about Covid19. And Covid19 mania may pass in a few months, but this bear market may not.
As mentioned, my plan is to slowly pass cash into the market, averaging in for as long as I can muster. I will pace this for an 18-month process, and I will certainly be happy if the bear market ends sooner. If we keep dropping, increasing the buying amounts in the low 2000s and lower would make sense.
I would love to hear what other folks with long investment horizons are planning. I'd also love to see more data from the community on typical bear market durations, amounts, and the best ways to capitalize on them. I'm sure folks are out there posting this stuff so I guess I'll come out of my shell and start looking around.
Adjusting to the new way of being. Lemons -> Lemonade.
Finally dipped in for a trade on Friday. Got a short intraday on M6E. Was looking for a breakdown ... it turned back and I left about 30 ticks on the table. Still got away with 30.
I know taking 30 ticks on one lot of micros is pizza-money. This whole exercise is a testing ground for bigger things. Maybe roll some day-trades into swing-trades. Maybe a little scaling in and out? Not sure. Being at home more (although still extremely busy with work) does open possibility for more learning, if I can hold myself together.
Ehhh... is it worth posting all three H4 analyses? Things seem to change drastically day to day, and yet the charts tell a simple story. I don't have any specific spots I'm looking at for swings- I certainly won't be leaving limit orders overnight with this volatility. I'm looking for places to sell, until this market dictates otherwise. Gold is trying to stabilize around 1500, having paused its plunge for now. M6E thought it had legs for the first part of the month, and then collapsed to new lows. MES is really reaching for a bottom. If we are looking at 2100s soon, one would think there has to be some kind of a bounce coming. Dead cat or otherwise. It's very interesting to see technicals still looking ... technical ... in spite of everything.
Last week ended on a sour note with the ES plunging to finish an otherwise strong week limp and pestilent. Sunday opens gap down and immediately tries to buy back over 2500 but currently getting the smack down.
Personally, I was hoping (bad word) for a little bit higher push into 2700s, giving me a second chance to dump some equities before what seems like a very likely further-down-leg. I guess I wasn't the only one. 2600s got sold and we'll be lucky to see them again before May.
Regret is a bitch in trading. Especially when it's life savings on the line. Sell the monthly cross below the 200 daily is the oldest trick in the book. Those of us that hadn't grown complacent in the permabull run might have remembered that trick. Others of us, we learn the lesson a second or third time.
One silly MES trade on Tuesday, made up for by a solid one on Friday. Up about 50 buckos on the week. There was a BE M6E trade in the middle, not worth mentioning.
Silly tuesday, faded a trend day. Have to remember when daytrading the most important factor is who's got the ball Right Now. Bear market be damned:
Savvy Friday, took a pullback long after high-effort-minimal-movement by sellers into support. Managed to take some profits before the rodeo:
Hope you are well.