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Ah, interesting. Thanks for the heads up- been relaxing and did not see. Attached shows the hourly. Old me would be waiting for a “sign of strength” in the form of a break over 67, with a stop below the 65.80 low. New me is curious whether 66 continues to find buyers and would try a low risk long somewhere in here, say 66.25. If get stopped out, try again at the next potential spike-low-followed-by-higher-low potential bottom. Maybe 65 and change.
Unfortunately these ideas still leave even QM on the borderline of my current risk profile (assuming it might take 2 attempts or even 3 to exhaust the idea with a 40-50 cent stop). I have been using ETFs UCO and SCO for oil swings. That leaves me hamstrung until the NYSE open tomorrow. I will start to look at QM though as there may be spots where I can give that a shot too.
Time for another weekly run-down on ES, CL, GC, ZN, 6E, and 6B. It was a crazy week, as the plague struck down my household and left me stretched very thin in my market-tracking abilities. Still flying single-engine this week but hopefully able to keep my act together.
ES:
Last week's comment: "I believe dip-buyers will come in strong if we get to 2680"
I got this one. Didn't take the size I should have in SSO - but I learned there to hopefully do better next time. Got in around 2680 and out around 2733. As for next week, have to bet that this has a shot at moving up toward the 2760 area. But it also has a shot at staying rangebound under 2740.
This week's bold statement: Buy 2721.50
ZN:
Last week's comment: "The sellers should start showing supply here quick, or else I'll pull the plug on that trade."
Last week I posted ZB but I think I'll stick with ZN hence forth. I did dump my TLT 20yr Notes short position at the open on tuesday, so damage was limited. Obviously we had a significant move higher and a sort of blow-off at resistance. I don't think we can confidently say this is going to just quietly resume the easy downward flow. This move up may have a nother leg in it. Even more likely, this thing wants to churn around in this area for a while before commiting to a direction.
This week's bold statement: Buy 119'175
6E:
Last week's comment: "I'd be happy to try a short around 1.1750 or 1.1900"
The market came close to that 1.1750 short I wanted. I honestly wasn't keeping close enough track of it anyways with all the other crap going on. For this week, I'm looking mostly for churn. I like a little upside here so that's where my chips are.
This week's bold statement: Buy 1.1615
6B:
Last week's comment: "gamble a long for a dead-cat play around 1.3250."
That dead cat play was the right idea but I missed out. Bummer. This week I plan to pay a lot closer attention so we'll see what happens. Here we are on a very extended down move, popping up a bit into what could be a pause / range. I'm inclined to steer clear unless we get a price worth fading.
This week's bold statement: Sell 1.3435
CL:
Last week's comment: "I would expect the longer term dip buyers to step in at or above 65.50. I'll be looking at the 69+ area for a short."
Not a smooth weak for CL, but I basically had the gist of it right. Didn't quite get up to that 69 area for my short. I could see this doing a lot of things, but it's worth remembering that we are still technically in a 1yr up trend, and it's sold off quite a bit. I would find price in the low 64s a tantalizing long.
This week's bold statement: Buy 64.34
GC:
Last week's comment: "I'm tempted in both directions. a short position from 1310 could be the right idea, anticipating another dip below 1300. Or, if it drops down to 1295 and buyers once again hold the level, then the longer term "Up Trend" since Jan 2017 if you can call it that, is in tact and we maybe get a run up to 1325."
I got a little cute with my entry short limit price and ended up not getting a fill this week. Anyhow, for the coming week it's a tough call and maybe nothing really here short-term at the cross-winds between multiple timeframes, up and down. But if I squint real hard the story from the past week was that GC tried and failed to break higher, making a Lower high and pushing south. So a little continuation downward, with a safe entry price and a kinda-tight stop, makes some sense this week.
This week's bold statement: Sell 1304.9
I thought the 65.50-66 area would be good for a long too but never got it in...now with recent action it looks to me like lower will happen before more up moves. 64.34 is a very specific price, curious what you see there? I see the move off the April lows but nothing too specific...
Also I found your comment last week interesting. You said "look for the next spike low followed by a higher low". The concept makes sense but not something I have really been on the lookout for for my swing attempts. This is something you watch for for entries? I'm still a newbie in the swing trading arena.
Craig
Hey Craig, nothing too specific. There's some support in the vicinity, a little below that price, and if CL follows the path I laid out, it is a location that should give me a reasonable risk reward with stop in the 63s somewhere. When I pick these numbers it is with the intention of placing an Alert nearby, and then when price hits it, watch and see where to take an entry. This may sound a little crazy, but in some senses 64.34 just had a nice ring to it - it's below even-64.50, but above .25, not too close to 64-even... I'm sort of picking a balancing-point between a number of technical features and measured moves. So it is somewhat arbitrary, but it gives me a reference point and that's the most important thing. You have to pick a number if you want to trade. It's like light photons behaving as both a particle and a wave until the observer takes a measurement That price could have been anything in that area - but I have to stick my alert somewhere so there it goes. A little bit of intuition goes into it for sure.
ES: Last week's bold statement: Buy 2721.50
No entry this week - there was no pull-back. Something to consider is when I am confident on direction and we open the week without a pullback, just take the entry. When ES is on the move, especially up, it tends to just take a direct approach. This week ES is looking like it's next stop is 2815. But I can't help but feel like we need to take a little pause before crossing 2800. Could be wrong, but I'll play the pullback again this week and look for a long from 2771.
This week's bold statement: Buy 2771.
ZN: Last week's bold statement: Buy 119'175
I took the entry at '175 and closed at the end of the week for essentially a break even trade. This is a choppy chart and I don't see much I like. Overall, the recent action looks weak - the failure last week to find any buyers for a retry of the recent high is disappointing for bulls. Maybe we just keep chopping around but I'll flip a coin and try a short if we come up toward the top of last week's range. My motto lately is: take the easy path. When in doubt, if it's doing something right now, just assume it will keep doing it. Right now it's looking weak. So there we go. Decision simple.
This week's bold statement: Sell 119'285.
6E: Last week's bold statement: Buy 1.1615
As I kind of expected, that downward slope just couldn't sustain itself for much longer. 6E broke upward somewhat last week, but didn't touch my entry point for the buy. The euro is so stretched, it could continue to sling shot upward, but there it is still fundamentally damaged goods. Given these conflicting sentiments I'm going to play it safe and go for a short but only if it approaches the upper bounds of the current motion. The likelihood of a fill is low, and maybe it's a little too safe, but I think it's appropriate.
This week's bold statement: Sell 1.1866
6B: Last week's bold statement: Sell 1.3435
I took the short at 3435 like I said I would. Closed for a very small gain at the end of the week. This week, again I'll play 6E and 6B against each other, sort of a hedge. I like the pullback into support and another test higher of 1.3500, maybe beyond.
This week's bold statement: Buy 1.3335.
CL: Last week's bold statement: Buy 64.34
Really kicking myself over this one. The week was a wash except for this one idea. And I managed to miss the entry not once but twice. I'm going to be more hands off with my entries this week and just let the market do the work. As for CL, really have to be careful here. The weekly is showing us the context of a market poised for a bounce. The daily from the past week, although it regained some ground, is not exactly explosive. So with these crosswinds, what to do? Favor the current move (down) but play it safe and don't give up the sideways move. Let the market give you a good price, if it wants to. Around 66.80 could work.
This week's bold statement: Sell 66.80
GC: Last week's bold statement: Sell 1304.9
I took the trade for a small gain, closing at the end of the week. GC could have the bottom about to drop out, but it's been finding buyers below 1300 pretty consistently. I could try a long this week.
This week's bold statement: Buy 1298.6
Another solid week, though a bit of a wild ride with FOMC and ECB mucking things up. Traded losses in GC and 6B for a nice gain in CL, and entered positions toward the end of the week in ZN and ES which I carried into the weekend. Below are the details.
ES: Last week's bold statement: Buy 2771.
This buy got triggered on Friday and holding through the weekend. It's doing OK but I'm not incredibly excited by a long right now. We can see from the weekly, 2800 could be pretty stiff resistance and in the current climate a move to 2750 area could be in the cards. Unfortunately I'm a little bit chicken-shit when it comes to shorting equities right now. My plan for the week is to pull my stop in tight on the active position and if Monday isn't strong, I'll close it early in the week. Then wait for a dip to initiate another buy. If it rockets up without me on Tuesday for some reason, well I'll be a monkey's uncle.
This week's bold statement: Buy 2752
ZN: Last week's bold statement: Sell 119'285.
ZN touched '275 on Friday and due to some imprecision in my calculations I happened to have an entry round there. The sell got triggered on Friday and I'm holding through the weekend. I'm OK on the trade for now but I'm not confident that down remains the path of least resistance. With FOMC out of the way it seems like all the news has been priced in, and instead of dumping hard, it has held its ground. I'll aim to take a small profit unless we get strong selling on monday, and then look long.
This week's bold statement: Buy 119'090
6E: Last week's bold statement: Sell 1.1866
Currencies rolled over to September contract, so the price is off on the new chart - this not trigger. Given the ECB reaction it just seems like damaged goods here and the 'how low can you go' contest is ON until further notice.
This week's bold statement: Sell 1.1757
6B: Last week's bold statement: Buy 1.3335.
This one did trigger, and was very nicely positive until the ECB smashed it into the dirt. I ended up panic-closing for a loss of half R on Friday, before it rebounded. Could have held to close for a break-even result. This is a tough chart to read, and I'm once again tempted to hedge against my short-6E idea with a long-6B idea. As powerful as these downdrafts are, we are meeting clear demand - the question is whether the demand will dry up, and whether we have any futher news risk in the cards. No crystal ball, just a humble chart reader here. I'll try a light long on a test of support, looking for a snap back up to 1.34. Light, because my confidence is not super high on this one.
This week's bold statemet: Buy 1.3244
CL: Last week's bold statement: Sell 66.80
The gold star of the week. Triggered on Thursday and exited on Friday for a gain of over 1.5R. The 70s are looking more and more like a distant memory for CL. I'm guessing we go into some nice June gloom summer sideways in the 60s for a while here. I'll play for a little bounce if we extend down to 63.
This week's bold statement: Buy 63.04
GC: Last week's bold statement: Buy 1298.6
This one hurt even more than the 6B long. Triggered on Monday and was up a nice bit the first half of the week, but then got slaughtered for a full 1R loss. This has motivated me to institute a mid-week-check-in where I consider moving stops tighter on trades like this one. Not cool GC! Not cool. Well, onward we must. Although the soup du jour is clearly down, I am once again entranced by the hypnotic confusion spell of GC and oddly motivated to look long on a further dip. If we look at weekly-major-lows, they are often followed by range or snap-back rallies the next week. Not an ultra-high confidence idea, so I'll handle with a light touch.
This week's bold statement: Buy 1267.7
An OK week, but had a few issues executing correctly, and this is prompting me to shift gears in a big way. The biggest issue I had this week was that, since I have decreased my holding time and am trying to place trades each week, now the ETF instruments I trade in my tax deferred cash account are running into the 3-days-to-settle problem. If I close friday and open monday, I could take the trade but I would be stuck in it for a few days or I would break the restriction. No bueno if I want to manage risk with stops.
So I'm dropping ETFs. Actually, what I've decided is that I'm now satisfied with the experiment thus far and ready for the next phase. Ironically this means going BACK to sim. Sim trading futures only, in a full replication of what I intend to do with a real account — with a higher risk per trade. I will do this for as long as I feel is necessary before moving to the real thing.
ES: Last week's bold statement: Buy 2752
ES dipped through my buy area briefly and then jolted higher before sputtering toward the end of the week. Not a bad run. I'm calling this still an uptrend within the chop sui that is 2018. But I don't like the weak followup to the rebound touch of 2780. The cautious play is to wait for 2731 and buy there if we get it.
This week's bold statement: Buy 2731
ZN: Last week's bold statement: Buy 119'090
Got a little action out of ZN with a buy trigger and a gain. ZN seems to have its feet under it to some degree. The broader trend is sideways, but I like the demand in the mid 119s. Looking for another dip-buy this week.
This week's bold statement: Buy 119'205
6E: Last week's bold statement: Sell 1.1757
Something about the thursday spike with friday follow-through just has me juiced up to the long side on 6E heading into the week. This seems silly given the downward facing posture of the chart. I'm going to stick with the idea, though take a cautious approach with a deep-dip-buy at 1.1690 if it comes. We'll see if I regret that decision.
This week's bold statement: Buy 1.1690
6B: Last week's bold statement: Buy 1.3244
This was an OK idea - it took some heat but ended up in the green by the end of the week. I don't know if my brain is on backwards today or what, but I'm seeing excuses to get long everywhere. I think the simplest thing for 6B is to wait for another test of the major support around 1.3230 and buy. Like 6E, this looks like it's trying to put in a short term bottom. We should see demand at those prices.
This week's bold statement: Buy 1.3168
CL: Last week's bold statement: Buy 63.04
Didn't get triggered unfortunately. Kind of had the right idea. CL reinitiated its broader uptrend with much fanfare last week, with a rather epic Friday run. This chart is tricky - it seems very likely that we get a few follow through bars this week, but something is telling me to fear the snap-back. From my perspective the safest play is to just let it run up to a place of strong supply and play a reversal. It may not reach so high this week, but that's the idea - if it does reach there, I'll be getting the price I want.
This week's bold statement: Sell 70.40
GC: Last week's bold statement: Buy 1267.7
Made a few bucks on this trade. This week I like the long view a little more after we shook out the 1260s. Could just keep dropping, but we seem to keep coming back to 1300 the past year, so that's the play.
This week's bold statement: Buy 1266
Not a standard update from me this week. Long story short - I picked a very good week to switch to sim-trading. 5 trades triggered, all losses. No time to do a recap here today, so I'll be taking the week off. Just wanted to record a few notes here that pertain to my current method and what I see as the known weaknesses..
1. Correlation. I should look more closely at how my setups are correlated, and make an effort to de-correlate the trades. Example, if looking long in 6E,maybe don't also look long in 6B. 0/5 should be hard to do. Maybe time to actualy learn how gold / bonds / curencies / oil / equities are actually related from a macro perspective.
2. Selection. In the first half of the year I was looking at longer hold times, and really picking the juiciest trades. In this experiment I've been running the last month or so, I've been entertaining trades in every market I follow, every week. This is an experiment, and I will continue to follow it. But that's all it is at the moment. In the future I may consider "opting out" of some instruments on some weeks - need to think about that.
3. Compromise. I don't follow these markets in any depth on a daily basis. I look at them on the weekends. I am interested in tuning my ideas to the weekly action. But this is a compromise necessitated by my own personal schedule. Better to watch, wait, and pounce. But I am choosing to see if this in-and-out way might work, or have some benefits of its own. One major compromise is that I am always lookingt at a buy-the-dip or a sell-the-rip. Because I am placing trades over the weekend and not looking back. So, 5 instruments made it to my entry point this week, and then proceeded to my stop. That means I was broadly right about where the market was headed FIRST. I was broadly wrong about where the market was headed SECOND. This is important to keep an eye on, and I need to consider what is the right way to do so.
4. Trend vs "Gut" reversal plays. I got cute with quite a few of my ideas this week, and violated one of the major tenants that I'm trying to test right now ... which is, "Just take the trade in the direction it's going." I tried for a reversal in CL, in 6E, in 6B, and in GC — all losses. My with-trend long in ES was a loser as well, but I'll take that on the chin and live, if I just go with the momentum on the others as well. Sometimes you are at a clear level or at a clear 5-wave pattern just screaming for a turn-around, but it needs to be really obvious. Stick to the experiment. Follow the movement.
5. Duration. Keep an eye on those weekly trends. There's an environment to take quick stabs, and an environment to let it ride. We're still in the former imo, but that can change.
Agree with your assessment on 6E. Nice, clean charts too!
